Is Philip Rivers a HoF QB?

[Bearerofnews]

18 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

The answer to the Eli question is no. But SB's do matter, especially two SB MVP's. What really hurts Rivers IMO is the fact that he's been on some great teams and despite that, he's only been to one conference championship and he's 0-1 there. It isn't like Dan Marino who's carrying these trash teams. Rivers has been put in some great situations throughout the years but keeps falling short.

In his 6 playoff losses, 4 came on the road as the underdog where his team heavily underperformed. This last post season 19 yds rushing from the team and defense gives up 41 points.

2013 lost on the road vs highest scoring offense all time as underdog.

2008 lost on the road vs best defense and sb champs as underdog.

2007 lost on the road to the 17-0 Pats on 1 leg as underdog.

 

2 years where they underachieved in the playoffs was 06 (Rivers first year) entire team choked that one away. Rivers didnt do enough to win. But that was an entire chokejob play after play by different units.

2009, he didnt do enough. But it was a 3 point loss in a game his kicker missed 3 fgs. 

I think people are ignoring how bad of coaches Norv and Mccoy are and how much of a hinderess they are. As an Eagles fan, you know as good as most how critical coaching is. Unfortunately HOF voters will not look at coaching effect so for voters that value post season highly, that will hurt Rivers. They wont look at if Chargers were underdogs or how team played or who they lost to. But im just adding some context.

[Art_Vandalay]

15 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

In his 6 playoff losses, 4 came on the road as the underdog where his team heavily underperformed. This last post season 19 yds rushing from the team and defense gives up 41 points.

2013 lost on the road vs highest scoring offense all time as underdog.

2008 lost on the road vs best defense and sb champs as underdog.

2007 lost on the road to the 17-0 Pats on 1 leg as underdog.

 

2 years where they underachieved in the playoffs was 06 (Rivers first year) entire team choked that one away. Rivers didnt do enough to win. But that was an entire chokejob play after play by different units.

2009, he didnt do enough. But it was a 3 point loss in a game his kicker missed 3 fgs. 

I think people are ignoring how bad of coaches Norv and Mccoy are and how much of a hinderess they are. As an Eagles fan, you know as good as most how critical coaching is. 

That's a lot of excuses, man. I don't think years down the road the HOF committee is going to go through a long list of what-ifs and use that as justification. And yes, I know how critical coaching is but I don't think Donovan McNabb should sniff the HOF just because Andy stunk it up in the postseason. 

Has there ever been a QB with 0 all-pros, 0 conference championships, and 0 MVP's make it to the HOF?

[Soko]

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

If the majority of your argument for someone is on the basis of 1 singularity, that is not equal to the totality. 

If you are emitting a season for no reason, that’s not totality.

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Rivers got multiple MVP votes in 2008 and 2009. If his team had more wins, he would of been MVP in 2008.

He has 0 MVP awards.

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

You think the HOF votes in only 4 players from a position in an era? There was 7 qbs from the previous era. 

 

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

His era contemporaries have at minimum played 50 more games than him.

So that’s an excuse for Rivers when comparing him to Brady and the lot, but not for Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers when cherry picking things like “seasons with 4,000 yards passing”?

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

I did a break down of the stats and it wasnt volume. He was right there with them and if you look at efficiency and bulk.  Couple pages back.

You arbitrarily picked things like 4,000 yard seasons and seasons with 100+ in passer rating. That’s hardly a breakdown. 

Rivers is far behind Brady/Brees/Peyton in bulk. Way, way, way back. Efficiency wise, he’s beaten soundly by Rodgers and still falls behind the pack on the whole.

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Never being top 4 based off what? Play or perception. Because perception is hard to guage. Off play, he absolutely was. 

So you have him rated right in line with those 4? 

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

If Ryan continues to play at a high level for another 3 or 4 years, i have no problem him getting in.

I do. But that’s besides the point. 

It seemed like you were distancing Rivers and Ryan, when the biggest discrepancy between the two has largely been that Rivers has just been playing longer.

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

I think you are short changing Rivers numbers, seasonal play and consistency. As well as impact to his team.

He’s been consistently very good, both statistically and with his play. Rivers has occasionally taken his teams to the playoffs and has largely been a disappointment once getting there.

That’s not a HOF resume. Stats aren’t the crux.

52 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Tell me how you gauge "dominance over peers" so we can actually measure it with data.

Well Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers have all been better statistically. Their teams have had better records (largely, I’d have to double check on Brees). They’ve had more postseason success. More accolades. Super bowl rings. 

I’m not sure what else there even is to measure. You can’t really “measure” film, but I’m sure you’d find Rivers superior or comparable. FWIW, I have Rivers over Ben and Eli too. I wouldn’t vote any of them in. 

[Danger]

Playoffs Passing

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Career				11	11	5-6	211	355	59.4	2656	14	3.9	10	2.8	62	7.5	7.0	12.6	241.5	84.2	23	165	6.59	6.14	6.1	1	1
2006*	25	SDG	QB	1	1	0-1	14	32	43.8	230	0	0.0	1	3.1	58	7.2	5.8	16.4	230.0	55.5	3	26	5.83	4.54	8.6
2007	26	SDG	QB	3	3	2-1	52	86	60.5	767	4	4.7	4	4.7	56	8.9	7.8	14.8	255.7	85.8	2	14	8.56	7.42	2.3
2008	27	SDG	QB	2	2	1-1	41	71	57.7	525	3	4.2	2	2.8	62	7.4	7.0	12.8	262.5	83.4	8	60	5.89	5.51	10.1	1	1
2009*	28	SDG	QB	1	1	0-1	27	40	67.5	298	1	2.5	2	5.0	37	7.5	5.7	11.0	298.0	76.9	2	15	6.74	5.07	4.8
2013*	32	SDG	QB	2	2	1-1	30	43	69.8	345	3	7.0	0	0.0	49	8.0	9.4	11.5	172.5	116.9	5	29	6.58	7.83	10.4
2018*	37	LAC	QB	2	2	1-1	47	83	56.6	491	3	3.6	1	1.2	43	5.9	6.1	10.4	245.5	80.9	3	21	5.47	5.64	3.5

 

His playoff performance has generally speaking been subpar.

[frenchie]

6 hours ago, lancerman said:

The numbers aren’t good enough for him to eventually get in. He has too many peers that are in the same park that if he retires one year earlier than any of them he’ll get passed in stats. Then he has guys like Ryan and Stafford who are going to most likely pass him along with Rodgers. The longer he waits, the worse his case gets. It’s an entirely statistical case based off passing yards and passing TD’s over a career.

What does his peers have to do with anything?  So what if Ryan and Rodgers pass him in the stats department? Who cares? 

Rivers has been a great QB since he's been in the league; why are you choosing to ignore this simply because Matt Stafford might, at some point, overtake him in passing yardage?  This argument makes no sense.  If you were one of the best players during your time, you get in.  It shouldn't have anything to do with what other players did during your era.

10 hours ago, lancerman said:

 And we’ve already seen guys retire in the top 10 and not get in the HOF. Within 5 years he won’t be top 5 in any stats. If he’s on the ballot for 5 years he’s going to be fringe top 10 and then guys like Luck will be knocking at the same door to pass him.

You're making stuff up...  Who?  Name one QB that retired with top 10 #s that deserves to be in the hall, but is not....  Everyone who was good enough, and had the #s got in, even Moon, who wasn't good enough (IMO), still got in.

and who cares if he's top 10 in stats anyway?  You're reading too much into the bulk stats.  Try looking at the stats on a year by year, then you'll see who had truly great seasons, and who was consistently successful.  You'll also see why I don't particularly care for Fouts, Moon, and to an extent, Stabler.

6 hours ago, lancerman said:

Now you crapped all over Cam. I can guarantee that when Cam’s case is presented, him being the all time leader in QB rushes will be a huge piece of his argument. He’ll probably go down as the best running QB of all time. And those statistics will all be NFL leading for his position. Rivers statistics aren’t. He’s nowhere close to getting near the elite guys of his era in the two stars he’s good in. Also Cam’s stats will have far more longevity. Rivers will need guys to have career ending injuries to simply not get passed on all time lists before he’s eligible. 

I didn't crap on him; I'm just stating fact.  He's an average starter, and has been for most of his career, save for 1 fluke season where he somewhat resembled the myth that media and fans make him out to be.   Average QBs don't go to the Hall of Fame, regardless of their rushing stats...

The day Cam Newton gets into the Hall of Fame will be the day the Hall of Fame means nothing...

6 hours ago, lancerman said:

Guys like Stabler had a much better argument than Rivers and he waited nearly 30 years. If Rivers waits 30 years he’ll be nowhere near top 10 in yards and touchdowns. And then what is is his argument? He had a lot of Pro Bowls?

The only argument Stabler has on Rivers is the Super Bowl, which coincidently was the best season of his career.  Stabler's career #s - 28, 000 YDS, 194 TDs to 222 INTs.  Stabler, like Fouts and Moon, had a few great seasons, mixed in with a lot of not so good ones.  Rivers has been consistently great since he stepped on the field.

6 hours ago, lancerman said:

Also you’re being disengenous with the Fouts and Moon comparison. Those guys did not trailblaze to let guys like Bledsoe or Palmer. And Romo’s never going to be a HOF’er. 

Sure they did.  They were good, not great QBs who put up big #s, but never won anything, yet still got in the HOF.  That gives hope to the Bledsoes and Romos of the world...

And I wasn't making a case for Romo, but his numbers look much better than Fouts and Moon's, when you consider he was only an 8 year starter...

6 hours ago, lancerman said:

Also I can’t imagine you know much about Fouts. He was a perennial All Pro from the late 70’s to early 80’s. There was a good 5-6year period in his career where he was widely viewed as the best or one of the two or three best QB’s in the league. Also he’s on the All Decade team. You have HOF voters like King and others who have said that holds a lot of weight with voters. Rivers has no shot at any All Decade Team. He’s never remotely near the top 3 or 4 of his era. He probably should have been MVP in 1982 and actually did get it from the PFWA. So that’s a totally different case. And can only imagine people making it know very little about Fouts. 

Yeah, that's pretty much what I said about Fouts; he had a great run in the early 80's, but my argument against him was that he turned the ball over too much, which he did.

He was named all-pro twice:  1979 when he threw 24 TDs and 24 INTs....   and in 1982 in which he only played 10 games throwing 17 TDs to 11 INTs.  I guess kudos on all-pro, but those #s don't impress me..  Honestly his best season was '81, where he didn't get any awards, go figure...

Fouts made all decade simply because his heyday was during that void between the retirement of Tarkenton, Staubach, etc, and the arrival of Montana, Marino, etc.  What other great QBs were in their prime between '78-'83? Nobody.   His peers during that time was washed up Bradshaw, washed up Stabler, Jaws, Theismann, and Archie. 

Rivers, on the other hand, played during what I consider the most competitive era at the QB position.  He didn't get many awards simply because his peers throughout his career consist of Favre, Warner, Brees, Brady, Manning, Ben, Eli, Rodgers, all of whom are HOFers or future HOFers.  Despite this, Rivers still managed to be a perennial top 5 QB for most if not all of his career.

6 hours ago, lancerman said:

Moon..... let’s just say Moon got in for more historical reasons that don’t really apply to Rivers or anybody else in league history and unless you are going to argue that Rivers has some trancedental impact on race in the NFL, I really would avoid making that comparison. 

Well if that's why he got in, then shame on the HOF committee, because as of right now, Moon is the easiest case you can make for a QB that doesn't belong... 

Rivers has been a top 5 QB for his entire career.  Moon was never a top 5 QB, save for a couple seasons here and there..

So again, with Moon and Fouts in, Rivers walks in pretty easily, just not 1st ballot...

[Zappaz]

2 hours ago, Danger said:

Playoffs Passing

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Career				11	11	5-6	211	355	59.4	2656	14	3.9	10	2.8	62	7.5	7.0	12.6	241.5	84.2	23	165	6.59	6.14	6.1	1	1
2006*	25	SDG	QB	1	1	0-1	14	32	43.8	230	0	0.0	1	3.1	58	7.2	5.8	16.4	230.0	55.5	3	26	5.83	4.54	8.6
2007	26	SDG	QB	3	3	2-1	52	86	60.5	767	4	4.7	4	4.7	56	8.9	7.8	14.8	255.7	85.8	2	14	8.56	7.42	2.3
2008	27	SDG	QB	2	2	1-1	41	71	57.7	525	3	4.2	2	2.8	62	7.4	7.0	12.8	262.5	83.4	8	60	5.89	5.51	10.1	1	1
2009*	28	SDG	QB	1	1	0-1	27	40	67.5	298	1	2.5	2	5.0	37	7.5	5.7	11.0	298.0	76.9	2	15	6.74	5.07	4.8
2013*	32	SDG	QB	2	2	1-1	30	43	69.8	345	3	7.0	0	0.0	49	8.0	9.4	11.5	172.5	116.9	5	29	6.58	7.83	10.4
2018*	37	LAC	QB	2	2	1-1	47	83	56.6	491	3	3.6	1	1.2	43	5.9	6.1	10.4	245.5	80.9	3	21	5.47	5.64	3.5

 

His playoff performance has generally speaking been subpar.

To put some context to the stats...

 

2006 - Lost to Pats who ranked 2nd in points against and 6th in yards against that year. 

2007 - Beat Titans who ranked 8th in points against and 5th in yards against that year.

             Beat Colts who ranked 1st in points against and 3rd in yards against that year.

             Lost to Pats who ranked 4th in points against and 4th in yards against that year.

2008 - Beat Colts who ranked 7th in points against and 11th in yards against that year.

             Lost to Steelers who ranked 1st in points against and 1st in yards against that year.

2009 - Lost to Jets who ranked 1st in points against and 1st in yards against that year.

2013 - Beat Bengals who ranked 6th in points against and 3rd in yards against that year.

            Lost to Broncos who ranked 22nd in points against and 19th in yards against that year.

2018 - Beat Ravens who ranked 2nd in points against and 1st in yards against that year.

            Lost to Pats who ranked 7th in points against and 21st in yards against that year.

 

So in 11 playoff games he only faces a D who was worse than 8th in points against 1 time. Two of his losses come against teams who had the top ranked D points against and yards against. 

 

Also look at who he has lost to in the playoffs. Brady/Belichick account for 1/2 of his post season losses. The others were against Peyton Manning led Broncos or the teams who had the best defenses those years. 

 

While I'm not saying he played amazing, he definitely did not, he has usually had a very tough road in the AFC playoffs no matter what year it was. He also has rarely had other individuals step up in the playoffs to help compared to some other players who have had post season success. 

[blizofoz45]

The most notable aspect about Philip Rivers is how much commentators like him.  That's probably because when reporters ask him about another busy offseason, he thinks about his annually pregnant wife and assumes they're referring to something completely unrelated to sports.

[NFLExpert49]

If Warren Moon is in, Rivers is in. Not first ballot, but after several. 

[seriously27]

I can't say yes for a quarterback that makes me look back at the last decade and wonder if he is the 7th or 8th or 9th best qb.......

[footbull3196]

On 2/13/2019 at 11:08 AM, Bearerofnews said:

Matt Ryan and Cam in 19 seasons combined have 5 probowls. Rivers alone has 8.

Matt Ryan and Cam in 19 seasons combined have 2 seasons with over 100 passer rating, Rivers has 5.

Matt Ryan and Cam in 19 seasons combined have 9 seasons with 4000 yds passing and 8 seasons with 25 passing tds.

 

Rivers has 10 and 11 in both categories. Will likely retire top 4 in all major stats. He is 1 of 13 qbs with 8 or more probowls. All 12 of those are in or will be (Peyton, Brady and Brees).

Rivers is going to the HOF. The voters arent fickle and voted based off 1 season, which is really silliest thing ive heard.

If you can remove 1 season from a players career and they arent in the HOF or discussion, than they arent HOFers. Just that simple really.

Lots of people would say that about Terrell Davis.  How many people would have voted him into the HOF if his 1998 season had never existed?

[footbull3196]

10 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

If you are emitting a season for no reason, that’s not totality.

He has 0 MVP awards.

 

So that’s an excuse for Rivers when comparing him to Brady and the lot, but not for Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers when cherry picking things like “seasons with 4,000 yards passing”?

You arbitrarily picked things like 4,000 yard seasons and seasons with 100+ in passer rating. That’s hardly a breakdown. 

Rivers is far behind Brady/Brees/Peyton in bulk. Way, way, way back. Efficiency wise, he’s beaten soundly by Rodgers and still falls behind the pack on the whole.

So you have him rated right in line with those 4? 

I do. But that’s besides the point. 

It seemed like you were distancing Rivers and Ryan, when the biggest discrepancy between the two has largely been that Rivers has just been playing longer.

He’s been consistently very good, both statistically and with his play. Rivers has occasionally taken his teams to the playoffs and has largely been a disappointment once getting there.

That’s not a HOF resume. Stats aren’t the crux.

Well Brady/Brees/Manning/Rodgers have all been better statistically. Their teams have had better records (largely, I’d have to double check on Brees). They’ve had more postseason success. More accolades. Super bowl rings. 

I’m not sure what else there even is to measure. You can’t really “measure” film, but I’m sure you’d find Rivers superior or comparable. FWIW, I have Rivers over Ben and Eli too. I wouldn’t vote any of them in. 

Agreed on literally everything except on Rivers over Ben.  I cant see a scenario in which Ben wouldnt get into the HOF

[ThatJerkDave]

15 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

If someone is a boxer and they are a contender. Do they need to have a title fight? 

Yes.  Especially since there are so many belts and weight classes, I am trying to think of someone that didn't hold a title that I would call a "contender."

[ThatJerkDave]

I look at him like I look at Hines Ward when this question comes up.  

He was very good.  But he was not the best of the best for any length of time.  The Hall of Fame is for the best of the best players.  That just isn't Phillip Rivers.

[Eminence]

Probably not. Win a ring and you're in Phil. Otherwise you're a poor man's Marino 

[Soko]

2 hours ago, footbull3196 said:

Agreed on literally everything except on Rivers over Ben.  I cant see a scenario in which Ben wouldnt get into the HOF

To be clear - I think both Eli and Ben are getting in (and won’t be surprised when/if Rivers gets the nod as well). I just wouldn’t vote for them.

The HOF, for me personally, is for the best of the best. Ben has had the postseason runs and will have the right numbers, but he’s never really been amongst the common big four or even substantially ahead of Rivers. The Steeler’s success with him will certainly help his case and will likely be enough to get him in when things are said and done, but I just see it differently than most (which I recognize, isn’t how majority of the actual voters think).