A Focus On RBs In The 2019 Draft

[soulman]

Bears are expected to be in the hunt for a running back. Here are 10 potential middle round draft options.

Brad BiggsContact ReporterChicago Tribune

 

The Bears didn’t sign Kareem Hunt, and it’s possible they didn’t even try. But finding a running back is expected to be a top priority in their offseason plan.

With the league’s No. 1 scoring defense set to return almost intact — only strong safety Adrian Amos and nickel cornerback Bryce Callahan are free agents — the Bears will focus on making an offense that made a major jump in 2018 more explosive in coach Matt Nagy’s second season.

That means the Bears are likely to seek a successor to Jordan Howard, who remains under contract for one more season. There were rumors last spring they were considering trading Howard, who was coming off his second 1,000-yard season, and there was likely a solid basis for that chatter. But he wasn’t a strong trade chip, and whatever value he held then has diminished. He would be a one-year rental and is coming off a poor season.

That puts general manager Ryan Pace and Nagy in a position in which they need to find a good fit with a mid- or late-round pick as the Bears’ first selection won’t come until the third round, 88th overall. They have proved adept at identifying impact players in the middle of the draft, and according to four scouts polled for this story, this year’s running back class looks to have a little more depth, although there isn’t a blue-chip prospect like Saquon Barkley in 2018.

Howard finished with 935 rushing yards after improving in December, carrying 88 times for 399 yards and four touchdowns in the final five games. None of those opponents finished in the top 13 against the run, and Howard’s 3.7-yard average ranked 39th among qualifying backs. He looked slow throughout the season and wasn’t as powerful, struggling to run through contact. The Bears faced eight-man fronts on only 14 percent of Howard’s carries, but he had problems making unblocked defenders miss.

Measurables aren’t the best indicators of production, especially the 40-yard dash. Howard ran it in 4.59 seconds at his pro day in 2016, while Hunt was timed at 4.62 at the next year’s scouting combine. They look nothing alike on the field as Hunt possesses much greater ability to make defenders miss. Howard is a nice zone runner and can make a cut and get up the field, but he’s not running through contact with success like he did as a rookie and he doesn’t shake defenders. That ability makes Hunt special, and there’s a considerable difference in their ability in the passing game.

Nagy won’t want to field weekly questions about the running game for another season, so the Bears surely will address the position a year after they had many more roster holes to fill. They need a back who can handle 15 touches per game and make a defender miss, someone with the ability to play on third down at times.

Hunt was a third-round pick by the Chiefs in 2017, when he emerged as the NFL’s leading rusher. There were character concerns, not related to violence, that probably drove his stock down a little. The Bears won’t have to deal with the public-relations circus the Browns must navigate after signing Hunt to a one-year contract Monday, and they can get a rookie who will be under contract for four seasons.

“You’re not going to get that kind of skill set often in the middle of the draft,” one national scout said. “You’re going to get one or the other, not a guy that does it all. That’s a complete back, and you’re going to have a hard time getting that in the third or fourth round. But sometimes guys slip through the cracks or there are issues with guys.”

“I don’t think it’s great, but there are enough in this draft,” another scout said of the running back class. “There weren’t many last year after the guys at the top. You have to look at the style of backs they are going to want, more of a versatile back. Even though Tarik Cohen is versatile in a sense, he is more of a pass-game guy. They’re still going to want to focus on that guy who can split out and run routes and catch the ball well. There are a few of those guys out there.

“If you are taking a third-round or a fourth-round guy, it’s not going to be an elite player necessarily but someone who has a complete skill set. Jordan doesn’t have that. He can’t run routes. He can’t catch. So they don’t have to be elite; they have to be complete.”

Waiting until the third round or later means the Bears might not be able to check every box they would like for a running back. That doesn’t mean they can’t find a good one. Hunt, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, David Johnson and Devonta Freeman were selected in Rounds 3 or 4 over the last five years. They check most of the boxes now.

It’s difficult to project a lot of the prospects as pass catchers because most of the college spread offenses don’t throw to the running back very often, but you can see if a player looks natural running routes and catching the ball. On-field workouts for running backs at the combine take place March 1.

Here is a list of 10 the scouts identified as possible fits for the Bears (in alphabetical order with size listed by their schools):

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-cb-bears-replacing-jordan-howard-nfl-draft-biggs-20190215-story.html

 

[soulman]

Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan are most obviously or priorities in FA and the reality of it all is we may lose one or both placing a priority on the need to draft a DB in rounds 3-5.  But regardless of the outcome of signing those two Jordan Howard is in his contract year and a replacement for him should also be considered a priority.

Brad Biggs summarized those picks most likely to be on the board in the middle round when we pick.  I realize we've discussed some of these guys in another thread but I thought it might also be nice to devote and entire thread and discussion to a single position.  If this proves worthwhile we can do the same for Safeties/CBs.

So review Biggsy's list and leave a comment or two on who you like and why.

[blkwdw13]

I've had an eye on Mike Weber for a while if he last to where the Bears could select him.

[GBHalas]

There's two other names I'm keeping my eye on Alexander Mattison from Boise St. and Bruce Anderson from North Dakota St.  I personally like Anderson as a better fit.

[soulman]

How we approach drafting a RB may depend entirely on our blocking scheme.  Will Nagy want to keep pushing a power/gap scheme or will we go back to zone schemes and stick with that?  IMHO our present OL especially with a healthy Kyle Long is best suited for zone schemes.  So in predicting backs we may want to divide them into who seems to be the best fit for which scheme.

For instance David Montgomery whose a bit of a bruiser like Howard is far more comfortable and productive in a power/gap scheme seemingly lacking the vision and burst into the second level a zone style back like Howard displays.  Damien Harris would be similar to Montgomery in this regard.

If we plan to run a zone scheme or mix both then I'd prefer a back like Darrell Henderson especially if we keep Jordan Howard around in 2019.  Henderson needs to develop better receiving skills and blitz protection but he'd be a very nice compliment to Howard while he learns to expand his skills.  Devin Singletary would also be a good fit for an zone scheme but offers less in the way of power or blocking compared to Darrell Henderson.  Bruce Anderson is another RB I like who may drop a bit farther in the draft having played for an FCS school.  He may also be a very good fit with Howard.

Given how Nagy schemes and play calls I have to think we'll be looking less for a workhorse type back as opposed to one whose faster and more versatile and more of a big play threat he can use in combination with Tarik Cohen and then possibly develop Ryan Nall into his HBack and power RB in 2020 if Howard is no longer in the picture.  I'm just thinking more RB by committee than a singular featured back is all.

[playthrough2001]

I like the idea of Singletary or Henderson.  James Williams from Washington State is intriguing too.  He had 202 receptions in his career.  

[abstract_thought]

I think it's somewhat myopic to look for the next Kareem Hunt. With that said, having a back who's better in space and a more natural pass catcher will help this offense a lot.

I personally believe in Henderson as an every-down back in the mold of Alvin Kamara. Montgomery is another interesting player. With these guys I look less at long speed and more at their change of direction and balance. Those qualities seem more indicative of NFL success.

[soulman]

Erik Lambert produced an interesting mock draft in which Pace trades Oakland our 2019 3rd and one of our 2020 2nds for their 2019 2nd/#35 and drafts Josh Jacobs provided he falls that far.

It's another aggressive move by Pace but with Oakland already having 3 2019 1sts a shot at a 2019 3rd and getting back a second they shipped us in the Mack trade might appeal to Chucky.

Jacobs would be a great pick and there is zero chance he'd fall much farther than the middle of round two and even that seems unlikely.

[Epyon]

Howard replacements I'm mostly looking at Henderson, Montgomery (doubt he makes it, and I'd hope to see a bit more speed from him at combine), Singletary (need to see his combine speed AND him catching passes), and Bryce Love (who needs to pass medicals, and if he where healthy, I'd want to see if he still has his speed post injury, and see his catching) 

That said, I think we'd be more likely to target any of the numerous bulldozer type RBs in this draft than any of the above. I just find those guys a bit boring, personally, and would be more interested in getting more speed /home run threats across the board at skill positions (I'd also draft 2 expected 4.35 WRs in my ideal draft this year) and transition to more of an Oregon-esque Helfrich / Chip Kelly spread system. Which I think helps Cohen and Trubisky out a ton by putting them more into space. 

Moving on down the line, it's not just Howard, but Cunningham and Mizzell who could get replaced. Maybe that guy on the practice squad is ready, but maybe (probably) not as I was pretty disappointed with him last preseason. Primary receiving backs I was interested in are Pollard and Darwin Thompson. Either of them replaces Mizzell easily. 

[Sugashane]

4 hours ago, Epyon said:

I just find those guys a bit boring, personally, and would be more interested in getting more speed /home run threats across the board at skill positions (I'd also draft 2 expected 4.35 WRs in my ideal draft this year) and transition to more of an Oregon-esque Helfrich / Chip Kelly spread system.

At the risk of sounding dumb...Who would that be? Campbell and Isabella? They are the only burners I know of right now. 

[Epyon]

7 hours ago, Sugashane said:

At the risk of sounding dumb...Who would that be? Campbell and Isabella? They are the only burners I know of right now. 

Isabella and McLaurin are the two I'm specifically high on. 

Isabella I think is going to be a stud at the next level, since he's a deep threat, and was still a "work horse" higher volume guy in college.... Super fast, good-great agility and route running and yeah a really fast guy who runs good routes, and has a nack for getting himself open is something basically every team could use... His real detraction is that he's worthless as a blocker, and would have to be used with that in mind.

Right now, I have him high enough that I'd be considering trading our next year's oakland pick to go up and get him in the late 2nd/early 3rd range (then again, I'd also consider doing the same for Henderson-RB), and I've got him being an 800+ yard/season guy long term

 

McLaurin, I just got really really high on after the bears met with him at Senior Bowl... Good size, great agility, great speed (clocked as the fastest player on the field at Senior Bowl, and has stated he expects his 40 time @ combine to be 4.35 or less)..... and he's supposed to be an off the charts type personality/leader.... Also he plays, and is pretty damn good at, Special Teams.... Basically just an all around better version of Bellamy. He's fortunately been really underrated so far this draft class, and kind of slipping through the cracks in a very good WR draft.... and I think he could easily be a better pro than he was a college player. I don't think he'll ever be a team's #1 guy....but he wouldn't ever have to be on our team/system right now.... He would however add, ST value immediately, and dynamic speed with enough size to play outside.

Right now, I have him being a possibility for the 4th rounder we have, but if he really lights up the combine like I expect, his stock could rise a bunch... Production wise, I think he's more of a 400-500 yard/season kinda guy, however,  so maybe his stock doesn't get too crazy.

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, Epyon said:

Isabella and McLaurin are the two I'm specifically high on. 

Isabella I think is going to be a stud at the next level, since he's a deep threat, and was still a "work horse" higher volume guy in college.... Super fast, good-great agility and route running and yeah a really fast guy who runs good routes, and has a nack for getting himself open is something basically every team could use... His real detraction is that he's worthless as a blocker, and would have to be used with that in mind.

Right now, I have him high enough that I'd be considering trading our next year's oakland pick to go up and get him in the late 2nd/early 3rd range (then again, I'd also consider doing the same for Henderson-RB), and I've got him being an 800+ yard/season guy long term

 

McLaurin, I just got really really high on after the bears met with him at Senior Bowl... Good size, great agility, great speed (clocked as the fastest player on the field at Senior Bowl, and has stated he expects his 40 time @ combine to be 4.35 or less)..... and he's supposed to be an off the charts type personality/leader.... Also he plays, and is pretty damn good at, Special Teams.... Basically just an all around better version of Bellamy. He's fortunately been really underrated so far this draft class, and kind of slipping through the cracks in a very good WR draft.... and I think he could easily be a better pro than he was a college player. I don't think he'll ever be a team's #1 guy....but he wouldn't ever have to be on our team/system right now.... He would however add, ST value immediately, and dynamic speed with enough size to play outside.

Right now, I have him being a possibility for the 4th rounder we have, but if he really lights up the combine like I expect, his stock could rise a bunch... Production wise, I think he's more of a 400-500 yard/season kinda guy, however,  so maybe his stock doesn't get too crazy.

When I think of McLaurin what I see is a better Bellamy too. Bellamy made $1.9M last year on the original round tender as a RFA. If he’s looking to match that this year then I’d be moving on. That’s almost $1M we can save by replacing him with a vet minimum player and even more with a draft pick. Bellamy’s ST production is just average and replaceable, and his offensive contribution is negligible and will be replaced by Wims this year anyway. In an offseason in which we are looking to trim salary without dipping into future years as much as possible Bellamy’s position is one of the most expendable. 

[abstract_thought]

I'd be pretty shocked if McLaurin runs sub 4.4 at the combine. He's fast but he doesn't show that kind of elite speed on tape. Isabella is definitely a burner with great route-running ability but his physical profile is more limited.

[Madmike90]

Holyfield is the guy I really want to see catch the ball...excellent size/speed/power runner...if he can catch I would jump all over him in the 3rd...

Miles Sanders is another outstanding fit for this scheme...Bruce Anderson if we are looking for a guy later...

Henderson I really like as well...DeAngelo Williams clone coming out.

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Holyfield is the guy I really want to see catch the ball...excellent size/speed/power runner...if he can catch I would jump all over him in the 3rd...

Miles Sanders is another outstanding fit for this scheme...Bruce Anderson if we are looking for a guy later...

Henderson I really like as well...DeAngelo Williams clone coming out.

There are so many variables with the RBs. If Holyfield is great catching the ball and if Henderson runs as fast as he plays then both may be gone before our pick.