JMoore, ESB, MVS. Future outlook.

[JBURGE]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I'd argue that those who want to sign one of the top tier FA and draft an early WR as someone who wants to bury MVS and ESB on the depth chart...

I wouldn't call WR3 or WR4 buried on the depth chart. If we think MVS or Allison will be a league average WR2, then by all means nothing needs to be added. I am in the middle boat, where if the value was great for a WR I'd take one. I don't really care to add a mid-tier WR because I don't really like any of them

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I wouldn't call WR3 or WR4 buried on the depth chart. If we think MVS or Allison will be a league average WR2, then by all means nothing needs to be added. I am in the middle boat, where if the value was great for a WR I'd take one. I don't really care to add a mid-tier WR because I don't really like any of them

In 2017, WR4 had 39 targets.  In 2016, WR4 had 56 targets.  In 2015, WR4 had 19 targets.  On average, you're looking at roughly 38 targets for WR4.  MVS had 73 targets and ESB had 36 targets.  On a numbers basis, ESB was WR4 last year which jives with what actually happened.  Adams was WR1, Cobb & MVS were WR2/3, and ESB was WR4.  I do think MVS and Allison can be a league average WR2.  If the value presents itself, I'm not against taking a WR there.  But I'm not in the boat of "we need" to take WR early.

[JBURGE]

Just now, CWood21 said:

8 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I wouldn't call WR3 or WR4 buried on the depth chart. If we think MVS or Allison will be a league average WR2, then by all means nothing needs to be added. I am in the middle boat, where if the value was great for a WR I'd take one. I don't really care to add a mid-tier WR because I don't really like any of them

In 2017, WR4 had 39 targets.  In 2016, WR4 had 56 targets.  In 2015, WR4 had 19 targets.  On average, you're looking at roughly 38 targets for WR4.  MVS had 73 targets and ESB had 36 targets.  On a numbers basis, ESB was WR4 last year which jives with what actually happened.  Adams was WR1, Cobb & MVS were WR2/3, and ESB was WR4.  I do think MVS and Allison can be a league average WR2.  If the value presents itself, I'm not against taking a WR there.  But I'm not in the boat of "we need" to take WR early.

I actually looked up the snap counts too but was too lazy to type it out. It averaged out to WR4 seeing about 33% of the snaps I think. I don't have a big issue with that meaning the team is mostly healthy, but having depth.

As for the bolded, I agree. I am fully on the TE with the first 3 picks train if we like him. I am fully on board with Hock at 30 if for some reason he's there. WR I would prefer not since there are some 3rd round and later guys I like a lot, with a couple more I still have to see. But at 44 if value like Parris Campbell was there, I'd have a hard time passing

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

I actually looked up the snap counts too but was too lazy to type it out. It averaged out to WR4 seeing about 33% of the snaps I think. I don't have a big issue with that meaning the team is mostly healthy, but having depth.

As for the bolded, I agree. I am fully on the TE with the first 3 picks train if we like him. I am fully on board with Hock at 30 if for some reason he's there. WR I would prefer not since there are some 3rd round and later guys I like a lot, with a couple more I still have to see. But at 44 if value like Parris Campbell was there, I'd have a hard time passing

I mean, if you're drafting for depth I'd rather not invest a Day 1 or Day 2 pick.  If you're drafting a Day 1 or Day 2 pick, I want them to be WR3 at the very worst.  If they're not in a realistic spot to push for WR3, it's a waste of pick unless we're talking about insane value.  Something like Metcalf being on the board at 44 might be a situation like that.  I'd argue that TE is a bigger need than WR, but we're talking about picking someone for their sophomore year than their rookie year.  Would I like to add Hockenson, Irv Smith, or Noah Fant? Absolutely.  But am I spending a top 44 pick on them?  Probably not.

[JBURGE]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, if you're drafting for depth I'd rather not invest a Day 1 or Day 2 pick.  If you're drafting a Day 1 or Day 2 pick, I want them to be WR3 at the very worst.  If they're not in a realistic spot to push for WR3, it's a waste of pick unless we're talking about insane value.  Something like Metcalf being on the board at 44 might be a situation like that.  I'd argue that TE is a bigger need than WR, but we're talking about picking someone for their sophomore year than their rookie year.  Would I like to add Hockenson, Irv Smith, or Noah Fant? Absolutely.  But am I spending a top 44 pick on them?  Probably not.

You had me until the bolded. I completely agree, I don't want to draft a WR4 until day 3. 

I don't know what to say to the rest. 

[Hands]

IF Green Bay wants to draft a WR, you can probably bet it will be for a small, quick guy that has sure hands and gets in/out of breaks fast. They don't have that slot guy except for Cobb. If they don't keep Cobb, then need a fill-in. 

Outside of that, WRs are not that needed. TEs, wellllll that's a different story. They get one or two that have to be covered and this team should make some serious noise.

[rcon14]

4 minutes ago, Hands said:

IF Green Bay wants to draft a WR, you can probably bet it will be for a small, quick guy that has sure hands and gets in/out of breaks fast. They don't have that slot guy except for Cobb. If they don't keep Cobb, then need a fill-in. 

Outside of that, WRs are not that needed. TEs, wellllll that's a different story. They get one or two that have to be covered and this team should make some serious noise.

Randall Cobb is the smallest WR GB has drafted in like 25 years. Unless there is some massive ideological change from TT to Gute (which there doesn't seem to be), GB won't be adding sub-5'10" WRs.

[Hands]

Green Bay has a bunch of trees (>6-2) as wideouts. They will need a quicker rather then faster guy for the slot. If Deshaun Jackson or Humphries is available and they cut Cobb, the Packers will make a play sub-5-10 or not.

[rcon14]

Just now, Hands said:

Green Bay has a bunch of trees (>6-2) as wideouts. They will need a quicker rather then faster guy for the slot. If Deshaun Jackson or Humphries is available and they cut Cobb, the Packers will make a play sub-5-10 or not.

History says they won't.

[skibrett15]

57 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

History says they won't.

new GM, new coach.  Not a ton of data on their preferences.  Gute does come from the same school of thinking with archetypes of what players should look like.

I think going into 2019 with the status quo at WR is a "meh" or "just fine" kind of plan.  There's definitely an opportunity here for someone from the outside to really carve out a huge role next to Adams.  I don't see why that can't be at WR2 when that's a spot which would have really moved the needle for this team last year.  The WR production was very very spotty.

One of the rookie WRs will be a viable starting WR (WR3), but I think it's unlikely that both are worth starting.  Having ESB or MVS as a WR4 and depth guy is fine if there's a chance to get an impactful offensive piece.  ESB and MVS aren't likely to both really break out and be consistent threats, and Moore is very much a long shot at this point.

Allison needs to be phased out for this group to be an improvement over last year.

If going into the season it feels like a really really crowded room full of guys, you can always deal one for a 5th/6th rounder.  If you can't pull off that trade, then they aren't very good to begin with are they.

Kumerow is a trap and probably won't make the roster unless he can really be a ST factor.

 

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

new GM, new coach.  Not a ton of data on their preferences.  Gute does come from the same school of thinking with archetypes of what players should look like.

I think going into 2019 with the status quo at WR is a "meh" or "just fine" kind of plan.  There's definitely an opportunity here for someone from the outside to really carve out a huge role next to Adams.  I don't see why that can't be at WR2 when that's a spot which would have really moved the needle for this team last year.  The WR production was very very spotty.

One of the rookie WRs will be a viable starting WR (WR3), but I think it's unlikely that both are worth starting.  Having ESB or MVS as a WR4 and depth guy is fine if there's a chance to get an impactful offensive piece.  ESB and MVS aren't likely to both really break out and be consistent threats, and Moore is very much a long shot at this point.

Allison needs to be phased out for this group to be an improvement over last year.

If going into the season it feels like a really really crowded room full of guys, you can always deal one for a 5th/6th rounder.  If you can't pull off that trade, then they aren't very good to begin with are they.

Kumerow is a trap and probably won't make the roster unless he can really be a ST factor.

Every single WR they drafted under Gute (new GM) was at least 6'2.5", 205+.  I believe the only WR who came in below 6' was Randall Cobb, who was a carryover from the previous regime and a high cap hit.  We've already discussed the mediocrity that was the Titans' WR corp was, so it's hard to take anything  from that.  I'm not saying they couldn't go away from it, but based on what we know that isn't the case.

Going into 2019 with our current roster isn't the end of the world.  Maybe not ideal, but certainly not the end of the world.  Why can't Allison/MVS/ESB be our #2 WR?  We're getting back into draft pick bias.  They're produced in the limited snaps.

[moretti19]

Please also remember that Geronomo was looking pretty good!

[Fox_NFLs_GG]

Rodgers seemed to trust ESB as a WR that ran to the outside more than the others. Rodgers threw to MVS more or less in the middle and showed some trust in his ability. Moore  was barely acknowledge when he was out there, maybe because he didn't know what he was doing. I would suspect that ESB, MVS, and Moore will be more trusted this year as they actually have a WR coach who will coach instead of the bum who didn't coach last year. I see MVS taking on the role of Cobb eventually if not  immediately and ESB becoming a sideline threat due to his height and athletic abilities. Adams and Kumerow have similar skill sets and should be rotated. It might come down to a dog fight between Allison and Moore for a roster spot.

[Gopackgonerd]

1 hour ago, Fox_NFLs_GG said:

Rodgers seemed to trust ESB as a WR that ran to the outside more than the others. Rodgers threw to MVS more or less in the middle and showed some trust in his ability. Moore  was barely acknowledge when he was out there, maybe because he didn't know what he was doing. I would suspect that ESB, MVS, and Moore will be more trusted this year as they actually have a WR coach who will coach instead of the bum who didn't coach last year. I see MVS taking on the role of Cobb eventually if not  immediately and ESB becoming a sideline threat due to his height and athletic abilities. Adams and Kumerow have similar skill sets and should be rotated. It might come down to a dog fight between Allison and Moore for a roster spot.

I think it's the opposite, it seemed like Rodgers threw to MVS on the outside more, he just missed him a bunch.

[Fox_NFLs_GG]

2 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I think it's the opposite, it seemed like Rodgers threw to MVS on the outside more, he just missed him a bunch.

You are right about MVS on the outside, a lot were dropped. ESB made a lot of the catches on the outside but not in the middle. MVS made a lot of his catches in the middle but not on the outside.