ET80 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I'm really struggling with the WR figures. Outside of Mike Thomas and MAYBE Eric Ebron, I don't see any of those guys as anything higher than OK for their respective teams. (EDIT - AJ Green and Davante Adams, I guess). I mean - no Hopkins, no Ertz, no Thielen, no Tyreek, no Julio? I really don't understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, ET80 said: I'm really struggling with the WR figures. Outside of Mike Thomas and MAYBE Eric Ebron, I don't see any of those guys as anything higher than OK for their respective teams. (EDIT - AJ Green and Davante Adams, I guess). I mean - no Hopkins, no Ertz, no Thielen, no Tyreek, no Julio? I really don't understand that. Lockett shouldn’t surprise as No. 1 given that Russ had a perfect passer rating targeting him. I kind of agree though - the main pitfalls of receiving WAR is that, even though most INTs aren’t the fault of the receiver, interception rate when targeted is one of the stats used. Interceptions also affect AY/A, and higher volume targets tend to be the target of a lot of interceptions, so a lot of high profile receivers don’t have super high scores. For the record, here’s the receiving WAR of the players you listed: Hopkins: 0.75 Ertz: 0.17 (I guess he was rather unspectacular in production per target) Thielen: 0.48 Hill: 0.61 Jones: 0.56 Remember, it’s a measure of the WAR accrued by the team as a team when the player in question was the target. Interceptions hurt most of these totals a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 3 hours ago, DoleINGout said: 4 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I think that last bit finally puts an end to the age old question of “who’s better, J. Develin or A. Armah?”. Armah have to debate you on that one... Well, the Develin the details on this debate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomas5737 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: The first half under Hue killed Baker. Yeah, statistically. Still the vast difference between Kizer under Hue and Baker under Hue was very dramatic. Baker could make all of the throws that Hue/Haley required there just usually wasn't enough time for the routes to complete before pressure got there. 10% of the time I could see those long developing routes being called but not 90%. Should always have a pressure option too and usually there wasn't one. Need an elite pass protection offensive line (at every spot) for Hue's offense to work. Also, Baker was penalized in this for Hilliard's interception which was 0% on Baker and Baker isn't credited for his 2 point catch so there are flaws which there will always be with every statistical or visual analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 39 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said: Yeah, statistically. Still the vast difference between Kizer under Hue and Baker under Hue was very dramatic. Baker could make all of the throws that Hue/Haley required there just usually wasn't enough time for the routes to complete before pressure got there. 10% of the time I could see those long developing routes being called but not 90%. Should always have a pressure option too and usually there wasn't one. Need an elite pass protection offensive line (at every spot) for Hue's offense to work. Also, Baker was penalized in this for Hilliard's interception which was 0% on Baker and Baker isn't credited for his 2 point catch so there are flaws which there will always be with every statistical or visual analysis. Yeah. Numbers can't attribute fault in this case, so Baker's WAR total suffers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomas5737 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 1 hour ago, AlNFL19 said: Yeah. Numbers can't attribute fault in this case, so Baker's WAR total suffers. Yeah I get it can't be perfect, usually whoever is in the best situation, assuming they are quality, will have the advantage. Late in the year the Browns had a 7% drop rate for Baker's passes which was only trailing Bortles' drop rate in the league which I don't know if it would be figured in, assuming a WR gets docked points because there was a pick when he was targeted I would assume it's factored in but I dunno. Or everyone gets negative points for any negative play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 I'm pretty sure this is the most impressive RB season according to the model, but I don't have time to run through many. 2006: RB LaDainian Tomlinson Statistic WAR Total WAR 6.27 Passing WAR 0.36 Rushing WAR 5.55 Receiving WAR 0.36 That's 0.015 WAR per touch / target, including 0.12 per pass attempt and 0.016 per rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Malfatron said: Well, the Develin the details on this debate You better fullback on this. Bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwibrown Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Could you do Baker once Freddie was OC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 This is really overselling non quarterbacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Kiwibrown said: Could you do Baker once Freddie was OC? Passing WAR +1.28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Danger said: This is really overselling non quarterbacks. Why do you think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Slim Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 if this is too much hassle don’t worry, but i’d just like to know, can you get the linear graph of the x and y between total team win shares and real wins? like do the win shares come as a proportions of team wins so it is a 1:1 or is that not it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 So this is based on last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 8 hours ago, Shady Slim said: if this is too much hassle don’t worry, but i’d just like to know, can you get the linear graph of the x and y between total team win shares and real wins? like do the win shares come as a proportions of team wins so it is a 1:1 or is that not it It’s not 1:1. It’s based on a rating system that assigns expected wins added based on the performance of every team from 2007 on in terms of record and my rating and then divvies them up (Ex. San Fran’s total team WAR on all three phases was -5.60, so the model expects them to win roughly 2-3 games and divvies up the -5.60). side note - I’ll probably post team WAR stats later because I can’t find singular defensive stats that are good enough but I can find enough to assign the team as a whole a pass defense WAR and a rush defense WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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