AlNFL19 Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 45 minutes ago, SBLIII said: So this is based on last year? This is WAR totals for the 2018-19 season. The replacement level (which is really just the average) is found from data from the previous three seasons, and the approximate conversion to a win is found from data from the last ten seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said: This is WAR totals for the 2018-19 season. The replacement level (which is really just the average) is found from data from the previous three seasons, and the approximate conversion to a win is found from data from the last ten seasons. Ok thought it would be a projection for next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 minute ago, AlNFL19 said: This is WAR totals for the 2018-19 season. The replacement level (which is really just the average) is found from data from the previous three seasons, and the approximate conversion to a win is found from data from the last ten seasons. It's not taking into account the impact of an actual backup QB playing instead of the starting QBs opposed to other positions. You can't tell me that Melvin Gordon being replaced by Austin Ekeler would be a bigger impact on the Chargers than Philip Rivers being replaced by Geno Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 The WAR statistic works far less in football than in Baseball or heck even basketball. It's far too team dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Danger said: The WAR statistic works far less in football than in Baseball or heck even basketball. It's far too team dependent. On 2/23/2019 at 1:55 AM, AlNFL19 said: There are a couple of things to address before going through the data this year, however, about this specific WAR model: It does not separate players from the other 21 on the field on every play. That is impossible. Truely, a "player's" WAR in this case is the *wins added by plays on which the player in question touched the ball or was the target of a pass.* Obviously, 22 players and even more coaches go into every play, so nothing could ever numerically separate them all. As a result, passing and receiving WAR values overlap. Take Gurley for example. His rushing WAR is pretty high, but it's really the WAR added by plays where Gurley ran the ball, so it's crediting Gurley, his offensive line, other blockers, the defense's mistakes, etc., not just Gurley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 Here's the team-by-team breakdown of offensive, defensive, and special teams WAR: Team Total WAR Offense WAR Pass. Off. WAR Rush. Off. WAR Defense WAR Pass Def. WAR Rush Def. WAR ST WAR Start. QB WAR Starting QB New Orleans +5.82 +6.46 +3.31 +3.15 -1.26 -1.13 -0.13 +0.62 +3.72 D. Brees Kansas City +5.53 +6.85 +4.80 +2.85 -1.79 -0.28 -1.51 +0.47 +4.79 P. Mahomes LA Rams +5.13 +5.48 +1.90 +3.58 -0.83 -0.2 -0.63 +0.48 +1.95 J. Goff Chicago +5.09 +1.16 +0.70 +0.46 +4.20 +2.78 +1.42 -0.27 +0.65 M. Trubisky LA Chargers +4.42 +4.57 +2.31 +2.26 +0.02 +0.11 -0.09 -0.17 +2.28 P. Rivers New England +3.47 +3.06 +1.55 +1.51 +1.43 +0.49 +0.94 +0.49 +1.54 T. Brady Seattle +3.25 +3.81 +2.96 +0.86 -0.25 -0.56 +0.31 -0.31 +2.96 R. Wilson Houston +2.81 +1.52 +1.40 +0.12 +0.94 -0.28 +1.22 +0.35 +1.41 D. Watson Minnesota +2.82 +0.89 +1.55 -0.66 +1.41 +0.97 +0.44 -0.14 +1.55 K. Cousins Indianapolis +2.52 +2.15 +1.87 +0.28 +0.30 +0.28 +0.02 +0.07 +1.87 A. Luck Atlanta +1.59 +4.10 +3.39 +0.71 -2.47 -0.85 -1.62 -0.14 +3.29 M. Ryan Denver +1.23 +1.05 -1.31 +2.36 +0.16 +0.20 -0.04 +0.02 -1.45 C. Keenum Pittsburgh +0.92 +2.66 +1.09 +1.57 -1.69 -0.97 -0.72 -0.05 +1.18 B. Roethlisberger Carolina +0.80 +2.47 +0.26 +2.21 -1.63 -1.15 -0.48 -0.04 +0.32 C. Newton Green Bay +1.33 +3.51 +1.58 +1.93 -1.99 -1.64 -0.35 -0.19 +2.32 A. Rodgers Baltimore +0.80 +0.38 -0.22 +0.60 +0.57 +0.74 -0.17 -0.15 -0.15 J. Flacco Dallas +0.84 +1.32 +0.78 +0.54 -0.25 -0.58 +0.33 -0.23 +0.78 D. Prescott NY Giants +0.73 +1.74 +0.14 +1.60 -1.18 +0.17 -1.35 +0.17 +0.07 E. Manning Tennessee +0.55 +0.39 -0.66 +1.05 +0.24 +0.12 +0.12 -0.08 -0.49 M. Mariota Cleveland +0.07 +1.48 -0.02 +1.50 -0.83 +0.83 -1.66 -0.58 +0.74 B. Mayfield Philadelphia -0.06 +1.56 +1.45 +0.11 -1.63 -0.32 -1.31 +0.01 +1.53 C. Wentz Cincinnati -0.55 +1.70 +0.05 +1.65 -2.42 -1.27 -1.15 +0.17 +0.33 A. Dalton Washington -2.32 -1.44 -1.93 +0.49 -0.74 -0.24 -0.50 -0.14 -0.21 A. Smith Detroit -2.42 -0.35 -0.28 -0.07 -2.00 -1.73 -0.27 -0.07 -0.11 M. Stafford Miami -2.54 -1.14 +0.18 -1.32 -1.43 -0.09 -1.34 +0.03 +0.01 R. Tannehill Jacksonville -3.55 -3.36 -1.75 -1.61 -0.38 +0.57 -0.95 +0.19 -1.31 B. Bortles Buffalo -3.49 -3.18 -4.08 +0.90 +0.01 +0.90 -0.89 -0.32 -2.28 J. Allen Oakland -4.03 -1.21 +0.05 -1.26 -2.84 -1.71 -1.13 +0.02 +0.06 D. Carr Tampa Bay -4.44 -0.09 +0.02 -0.11 -3.98 -2.21 -1.77 -0.37 -0.38 J. Winston NY Jets -4.43 -3.33 -2.46 -0.87 -1.60 -0.59 -1.01 +0.50 -1.60 S. Darnold San Francisco -5.60 -2.63 -0.86 -1.77 -2.84 -2.70 -0.14 -0.13 -0.27 N. Mullens Arizona -7.18 -4.01 -3.43 -0.58 -3.32 -0.55 -2.77 +0.15 -3.37 J. Rosen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom cody Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Thanks for posting this. I'm amazed at all these sports stats that are relatively new. Good way to judge player value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Patriots had the 2nd best defensive WAR. Didn't expect the number to be that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.