Jump to content

2019 Wins Above Replacement (Kind Of)


AlNFL19

Recommended Posts

45 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

So this is based on last year?

This is WAR totals for the 2018-19 season. The replacement level (which is really just the average) is found from data from the previous three seasons, and the approximate conversion to a win is found from data from the last ten seasons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

This is WAR totals for the 2018-19 season. The replacement level (which is really just the average) is found from data from the previous three seasons, and the approximate conversion to a win is found from data from the last ten seasons. 

Ok thought it would be a projection for next year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, AlNFL19 said:

This is WAR totals for the 2018-19 season. The replacement level (which is really just the average) is found from data from the previous three seasons, and the approximate conversion to a win is found from data from the last ten seasons. 

It's not taking into account the impact of an actual backup QB playing instead of the starting QBs opposed to other positions. You can't tell me that Melvin Gordon being replaced by Austin Ekeler would be a bigger impact on the Chargers than Philip Rivers being replaced by Geno Smith. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Danger said:

The WAR statistic works far less in football than in Baseball or heck even basketball. It's far too team dependent.

 

On 2/23/2019 at 1:55 AM, AlNFL19 said:

There are a couple of things to address before going through the data this year, however, about this specific WAR model:

  • It does not separate players from the other 21 on the field on every play. That is impossible. Truely, a "player's" WAR in this case is the *wins added by plays on which the player in question touched the ball or was the target of a pass.* Obviously, 22 players and even more coaches go into every play, so nothing could ever numerically separate them all. As a result, passing and receiving WAR values overlap. Take Gurley for example. His rushing WAR is pretty high, but it's really the WAR added by plays where Gurley ran the ball, so it's crediting Gurley, his offensive line, other blockers, the defense's mistakes, etc., not just Gurley. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the team-by-team breakdown of offensive, defensive, and special teams WAR:

Team Total WAR Offense WAR Pass. Off. WAR Rush. Off. WAR Defense WAR Pass Def. WAR Rush Def. WAR ST WAR Start. QB WAR Starting QB
New Orleans +5.82 +6.46 +3.31 +3.15 -1.26 -1.13 -0.13 +0.62 +3.72 D. Brees
Kansas City +5.53 +6.85 +4.80 +2.85 -1.79 -0.28 -1.51 +0.47 +4.79 P. Mahomes
LA Rams +5.13 +5.48 +1.90 +3.58 -0.83 -0.2 -0.63 +0.48 +1.95 J. Goff
Chicago +5.09 +1.16 +0.70 +0.46 +4.20 +2.78 +1.42 -0.27 +0.65 M. Trubisky
LA Chargers +4.42 +4.57 +2.31 +2.26 +0.02 +0.11 -0.09 -0.17 +2.28 P. Rivers
New England +3.47 +3.06 +1.55 +1.51 +1.43 +0.49 +0.94 +0.49 +1.54 T. Brady
Seattle +3.25 +3.81 +2.96 +0.86 -0.25 -0.56 +0.31 -0.31 +2.96 R. Wilson
Houston +2.81 +1.52 +1.40 +0.12 +0.94 -0.28 +1.22 +0.35 +1.41 D. Watson
Minnesota +2.82 +0.89 +1.55 -0.66 +1.41 +0.97 +0.44 -0.14 +1.55 K. Cousins
Indianapolis +2.52 +2.15 +1.87 +0.28 +0.30 +0.28 +0.02 +0.07 +1.87 A. Luck
Atlanta +1.59 +4.10 +3.39 +0.71 -2.47 -0.85 -1.62 -0.14 +3.29 M. Ryan
Denver +1.23 +1.05 -1.31 +2.36 +0.16 +0.20 -0.04 +0.02 -1.45 C. Keenum
Pittsburgh +0.92 +2.66 +1.09 +1.57 -1.69 -0.97 -0.72 -0.05 +1.18 B. Roethlisberger
Carolina +0.80 +2.47 +0.26 +2.21 -1.63 -1.15 -0.48 -0.04 +0.32 C. Newton
Green Bay +1.33 +3.51 +1.58 +1.93 -1.99 -1.64 -0.35 -0.19 +2.32 A. Rodgers
Baltimore +0.80 +0.38 -0.22 +0.60 +0.57 +0.74 -0.17 -0.15 -0.15 J. Flacco
Dallas +0.84 +1.32 +0.78 +0.54 -0.25 -0.58 +0.33 -0.23 +0.78 D. Prescott
NY Giants +0.73 +1.74 +0.14 +1.60 -1.18 +0.17 -1.35 +0.17 +0.07 E. Manning
Tennessee +0.55 +0.39 -0.66 +1.05 +0.24 +0.12 +0.12 -0.08 -0.49 M. Mariota
Cleveland +0.07 +1.48 -0.02 +1.50 -0.83 +0.83 -1.66 -0.58 +0.74 B. Mayfield
Philadelphia -0.06 +1.56 +1.45 +0.11 -1.63 -0.32 -1.31 +0.01 +1.53 C. Wentz
Cincinnati -0.55 +1.70 +0.05 +1.65 -2.42 -1.27 -1.15 +0.17 +0.33 A. Dalton
Washington -2.32 -1.44 -1.93 +0.49 -0.74 -0.24 -0.50 -0.14 -0.21 A. Smith
Detroit -2.42 -0.35 -0.28 -0.07 -2.00 -1.73 -0.27 -0.07 -0.11 M. Stafford
Miami -2.54 -1.14 +0.18 -1.32 -1.43 -0.09 -1.34 +0.03 +0.01 R. Tannehill
Jacksonville -3.55 -3.36 -1.75 -1.61 -0.38 +0.57 -0.95 +0.19 -1.31 B. Bortles
Buffalo -3.49 -3.18 -4.08 +0.90 +0.01 +0.90 -0.89 -0.32 -2.28 J. Allen
Oakland -4.03 -1.21 +0.05 -1.26 -2.84 -1.71 -1.13 +0.02 +0.06 D. Carr
Tampa Bay -4.44 -0.09 +0.02 -0.11 -3.98 -2.21 -1.77 -0.37 -0.38 J. Winston
NY Jets -4.43 -3.33 -2.46 -0.87 -1.60 -0.59 -1.01 +0.50 -1.60 S. Darnold
San Francisco -5.60 -2.63 -0.86 -1.77 -2.84 -2.70 -0.14 -0.13 -0.27 N. Mullens
Arizona -7.18 -4.01 -3.43 -0.58 -3.32 -0.55 -2.77 +0.15 -3.37 J. Rosen
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...