Packerraymond 2019 Mock Offseason V3

[Packerraymond]

I try to use these to present different scenarios. I'm going to call this one the worst case EDGE scenario, the big names all get the tag before FA and there is a run on pass rushers early in the draft, while the mid 1st guys have disappointing Combines. Not saying this is what I want or expect to happen, but I like my mocks to be different and to make people think. Can we still build a contending roster in this case?

Retained:

Breeland (3/20)

Wilkerson (1/4)

All notable ERFA/RFA's

No cuts are made to the current roster (25m to spend)

Free Agency:

Brandon Graham EDGE Eagles (2/18): Graham is getting up there so a long term commitment is going to be hard for him to find in FA. He'll be able to get his AAV up by taking a shorter deal. Graham is a nice fit for Pettine's scheme, really he's kind of a healthy Nick Perry, stout and a good rusher, Pettine's scheme is hard on our EDGE guys as far as run support goes, it's why I fear for the smaller EDGE guys in the draft. Graham's body type and play style is ideal for Pettine.

Alex Okafor EDGE Saints (2/14): Okafor has been a quiet and steady player his entire career, pass rush is a position you pay for some depth. We have Fackrell and now we add Okafor, along with a crop of guys from the draft. Like Perry and Graham, Okafor has the big body and ability to hold the point that he will need to fit Pettine's system.

Adrian Phillips S Chargers (3/18): We start off FA chasing the Thomas/Mathieu/Collins crowd but as the prices get up to 10+ per we back off and settle in the mid tier market. Phillips is a tough, smart football player who was extremely versatile for the Chargers this year, he played just about everywhere other than CB in the back end due to injuries. Pair a rangy safety next to him and here is your Morgan Burnett, steady, reliable, communicator on the back end who gets it done.

Tyler Eifert TE Bengals (1/1-3m): Big fan of throwing short incentive laden deals at guys and seeing what stick in FA. Eifert is running again, seemingly recovered from yet another setback in the NFL. Absolute stud when healthy, will he ever be again? I'm willing to pay 1m to find out, throw some incentives in there that bump him to around 3m if he's productive. 

Kevin White WR Bears (1/1-3m): Another big injury bust, we have some cap leftover before the draft so we decide we want a look in camp first hand.

The Draft: 

Round 1: Jonah Williams 6'5 305 OL

School: Alabama

As I eluded to earlier, in this scenario it's a defensive heavy top 10 with only 1 QB going, Gute fields calls but no one loves the QBs other than Haskins enough to offer something significant to jump Miami. The board worked out pretty well this way if your Matt LaFleur and you've reiterated many times this offseason that you want to protect Rodgers. Williams reminds me a lot of Bulaga. I don't think he's a LT, but I think you've got either a rock solid RT or OG there for the next decade. If the defensive run doesn't push a coveted rusher into our laps, well so be it, Gute just stays put and doesn't make a sexy pick, but surely an effective one. Bahktiari-Taylor-Linsley-Bulaga-Williams as a starting 5 surely will be among the leagues best in 2019.

Round 1 Nasir Adderley 5'11 190 FS

School: Delaware

Here's the rangy sideline to sideline guy that we wanted to pair with Phillips. Adderley is an exciting prospect to watch, as long as he performs well in the Combine, I think he's locked up top 50 pick status. Rangy player thats a bit tough to grade due to the lack of speed he faces in competition, one thing that's not mistakable is his effort and playmaking ability. He's always hustling to be around the ball. We'll see how the athletic numbers come back, I get a bit of a Nick Collins vibe from his tape, but Nick was a truly special athlete and I doubt Adderley is quite on that level.

Round 2: Deebo Samuel 6'0 210 WR

School: South Carolina

Don't think we need a WR this high, everyone after round 1 is plotting which TE or EDGE the Packers will take at 44, but Gute just can't help himself here. Deebo is made to play in a WC system, he's Cobb when he came out of Kentucky, just a bit thicker. Hopefully injuries don't shrink his prime as much as it did Randall's because he was a stud in his early-mid 20's. Deebo comes in right away and battles for the starting slot job with EQ. Going forward with Adams, GMo, MVS, EQ, Deebo and some wildcards in Kumerow, White and Lazard should make it so Rodgers never has to throw to Antonio Chatman and Taco Wallace late in his career. This receiving group could be as stacked as the 2010 group if the young guys hit. Even better is this group will be cheap for another 2 years.

Round 3: Jalen Jelks 6'5 250 EDGE

School: Oregon

Jelks had a down senior year, he showed big potential as a junior and could've easily been in the same breath as Sweat, Burns and Polite with another step up this year but it just didn't happen. Instead he ends up here in the 3rd where the Packers happily will work with him. The board didn't fall Gute's way for an EDGE in rd 1 or 2 so he decides he's going to do what he's done in years past at RB and WR, take multiple bites at this apple and see what sticks. Jelks has some nice moves and some bend and a frame to add another 10 pounds and be stout for Pettine's system. With vets in front of him his year one task will be to soak in the defense and play some sub rush package, starting job is wide open for him in 2020 if he can take it.

Round 4 Jordan Brailford 6'3 250 EDGE

Oklahoma State

Here's another bite at that apple, Brailford had 28 TFL and 15 sacks the last 2 years in the Big 12, yet there's no talk of him? If he puts up numbers at the Combine I can easily see him be a guy that goes early day 2 even though no one talks about him. He impressed me at whatever small time All Star game he got an invite to (again no love there). He's got some bend and explosion, we'll see where he ends up come draft day, but right now I feel this is a guy you can get big time value in early on day 3.

Round 4: Dawson Knox 6'4 250 TE

School: Ole Miss

Knox is an enigma in the draft, a walk-on with just 22 targets and 15 catches the year before he declares makes him sound like a PFA, yet you watch him and see the natural hands, explosion and athletic ability and the willingness to block and you see a hell of a canvas to work with here. Know reminds me of Jared Cook, he's going to be a move TE in the mold of Rodgers favorite past targets. He's going to get separation and not rely on strength and size which Rodgers seems to have shied away from. Overall Knox is a guy that could blow up the Combine and get overdrafted for what he could be. This is definitely a guy you're taking based 100% on pro potential, he didn't show much in college.

Round 5: Ryan Bates 6'4 305 OL

School: Penn State

One of those college OT's that is probably a lock to move inside, that usually is a telling sign that GB will be all over him. I'm penciling Madison in as retired at this point, so another late round flyer on an interior player should be used this year. Between Williams and Bates we should have have some nice youth coming into the system. 

Round 6: Jamal Peters 6'1 215 CB

School: Miss State

Take a late round flyer on a long potential press CB. I remember being impressed with his long speed for a bigger corner, needs better tech to compete in the short area game. I imagine at his size he can be a solid ST guy too.

Round 6: Ugo Amadi 5'10 200 DB

School: Oregon

See a lot of Micah Hyde in Amadi, that's a useful guy to have when you get good value on him and aren't paying him a whole lot of money. Another DB in camp who can be a ST contributor and end up on the PS potentially to cushion the blows of in season injuries

Round 7: Nate Harvey 6'0 220 LB

School: ECU

No idea where or if Harvey can play in the NFL, the guy was a RB converted to defense who is really too small to be an NFL ILB yet rushed the passer in his senior year to the tune of 25 TFL and 12 sacks. The kind of guy you want in your camp to see first hand, Sutton Smith gets all the attention as the undersized try hard with big numbers, but I think Harvey has the better chance to stick.

 

Depth Chart: 

QB: Rodgers/Kizer

RB: Jones/Williams/Bibbs

WR: Adams/Allison/MVS/EQ/Samuel/Moore

TE: Graham/Eifert/Knox

OT: Bahktiari/Bulaga/Williams/Spriggs

OG: Taylor/McCray/Bates/Patrick (one of Williams/Bulaga will start here)

OC: Linsley

DL: Clark/Daniels/Wilkerson/Lowry/Adams/Lancaster

EDGE: Perry/Graham/Okafor/Sackrell/Jelks/Brailford

ILB: Martinez/Burks/Morrison

CB: King/Breeland/Alexander/Jackson/Brown

S: Phillips/Adderley/Williams/Jones/Amadi

[MacReady]

Would love. 

[Joe]

I like the logic you took to this one, however, I think you may have gone a little overkill at EDGE while sompletely ignoring the DL. Pettine's defenses are based on the DL getting pressure typically by using three down linemen. We really don't have consistent DL that can get that pressure sparing Clark and Daniels of course. I'm not sure Wilkerson is that guy either and everyone else along that DL seem to be JAG's for the mostpart. We need to be looking at an impact player at either EDGE or DL. In this specific scenario with your FA signings, which I really like btw, I'd think about going DL over Jonah Williams as much as I hate to say it. I think you could easily get away with going with one of the better DL followed up by Adderley and then someone like Lindstrom in the 2nd. 

 

We need an EDGE player or two no doubt, but we need to invest about as much in that DL as well and we've got a deep enough draft class to tackle both positions(no pun intended) and take care of the OL and FS.

[Packerraymond]

7 minutes ago, Joe said:

I like the logic you took to this one, however, I think you may have gone a little overkill at EDGE while sompletely ignoring the DL. Pettine's defenses are based on the DL getting pressure typically by using three down linemen. We really don't have consistent DL that can get that pressure sparing Clark and Daniels of course. I'm not sure Wilkerson is that guy either and everyone else along that DL seem to be JAG's for the mostpart. We need to be looking at an impact player at either EDGE or DL. In this specific scenario with your FA signings, which I really like btw, I'd think about going DL over Jonah Williams as much as I hate to say it. I think you could easily get away with going with one of the better DL followed up by Adderley and then someone like Lindstrom in the 2nd. 

 

We need an EDGE player or two no doubt, but we need to invest about as much in that DL as well and we've got a deep enough draft class to tackle both positions(no pun intended) and take care of the OL and FS.

You're going to get elite snaps with Clark and above average snaps with Daniels and Wilk, along with league average from Lowry. There isn't much there for a rookie. Develop Adams and Lancaster instead and draft some more next year when Daniels and Wilk come off the books.

[gopackgo972]

Two Oregon Ducks in this draft. What’s not to love? 

I like Jelks but love Hollins and think he’s gonna end up being a better pro. Amadi is okay, he was basically non existent until his Senior year. He struggled making tackles vs larger opponents due to size.  Has a knack for the ball though and in the return game.  I think he could contribute at the NFL level as a special teamer but he would ultimately be a liability as a regular defender.  Smart kid though and tough as nails. 

[CWood21]

Brandon Graham is easily getting more than 2/$18M.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Brandon Graham is easily getting more than 2/$18M.

At 31 coming off a 4 sack year? Im not buying it. 

[Slinky]

Eh. D+

[Gopher Trace]

MAGNIFICENT!!

[Joe]

12 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

At 31 coming off a 4 sack year? Im not buying it. 

I'm not buying it either. Philly sports radio was all over his case all year and suggested on multiple occasions that he was basically washed up.

[Golfman]

3 minutes ago, Joe said:

I'm not buying it either. Philly sports radio was all over his case all year and suggested on multiple occasions that he was basically washed up.

All the more reason to stay away from him.  A washed up 31 year old. We're letting one of those walk in free agency this year. Why would be bring in another? 

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, Joe said:

I'm not buying it either. Philly sports radio was all over his case all year and suggested on multiple occasions that he was basically washed up.

I think he's got a year or two left. He's not like Matthews who relies so much on burst and bend, Graham is strong and bull rush and shed. He's much more like a Perry who has shown the ability to stay healthy. 

If the big names get tagged, your Preston Smith/Anthony Barr level suddenly becomes the top and you'll have to pay them like elite rushers because someone will. Someone like Graham/Suggs/Houston may have to be a bandaid we use to get us through a year and get some younger guys ready.

[Golfman]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I think he's got a year or two left. He's not like Matthews who relies so much on burst and bend, Graham is strong and bull rush and shed. He's much more like a Perry who has shown the ability to stay healthy. 

If the big names get tagged, your Preston Smith/Anthony Barr level suddenly becomes the top and you'll have to pay them like elite rushers because someone will. Someone like Graham/Suggs/Houston may have to be a bandaid we use to get us through a year and get some younger guys ready.

Fowler isn't getting tagged, get him or Shaq Barrett? 

[Packerraymond]

7 minutes ago, Golfman said:

Fowler isn't getting tagged, get him or Shaq Barrett? 

Sure I just didn't want to regurgitate every mock and do the exact same thing.

[coachbuns]

Pretty much like the whole thing.  Maybe flip flop draft 2 and 3 positions?  Put a nice edge rusher in 2 (even if we have to move up a little) and draft a wide receiver in the 3rd round.