Pre Combine/FA Mock Draft

[Trentwannabe]

This is more based on what I think Beane and co. will be doing and less on the dream scenario we want.

Re-sign:
DT Jordan Phillips 1 year $4.5 million

Sign:
OC Mitch Morse 3 years $28.5 million (16.5 guaranteed) 
OG Quinton Spain 4 years $42 million (20 guaranteed) 
OT Jason Veldheer 2 years $11 million (4 millions guaranteed) 
TE Jesse James 4 years $28.5 million (16 million guaranteed) 
WR Tyrell Williams 5 years $65 million (38 million guaranteed) 
CB Bradley Roby 3 years $10.5 million (4 million guaranteed) 
DE Benson Mayowa 3 years $7.5 million (2 million guaranteed) 

This leaves the Bills with approximately 24 million going into the draft and for lower level free agents that become available during the season. 

2019 NFL Draft:
Pick 9: DT Ed Oliver Houston
The Bills need to surround Josh Allen with a much talent as possible but this draft is so top heavy on defense. Ed Oliver for whatever reason is falling down boards because he's been in the media since before the college season began. Make no mistake, he is a game changer and will become a dominant 3T in the league. He isn't on the same level of Aaron Donald but he is still going to be a multiple pro bowler. Oliver steps in for the retired Kyle Williams and adds a pass rushing and run stopping  element the Bills desperately need. When McDermotts defense went to the Super Bowl a big reason was the stoutness of the DTs. Buffalo can recreate that with Star and Oliver. 

Round 2:
*Trade Back* to 43 (Lions move ahead of Denver for a WR)
Pick 43: TE Irv Smith Jr. Alabama
Bills will look to recreate what the Patriots once had on Defense when Daboll was the TE coach. Irv Smith is a very legitimate target for Allen and pairing him with James and Croom will give the Bills the best TE group they have had since the 90's.

Round 3:
Pick 74: OC Erik McCoy Texas A&M
Despite signing Morse to a 3 year contract, he has had an injury history and McCoy is great value here. He could compete right away at Guard or step into the starting C position as a rookie or a year or two in a pinch. Upgrading the OL should be priority number 1 all off-season. 

Round 4:
Pick 111 (From Detroit): WR Terry McLaurin Ohio State
Another WR who can excel deep down field where Allen likes to go. McLaurin showed at the Senior Bowl he can become a very good #2 in the league and can make contested catches. Will compete for the number 4 spot in Buffalo right away.

Pick 112: LB Chase Hansen Utah
Here is another Matt Milano to add to the LB corps. Though Hansen is here to potentially take over for Zo after he is gone. 

Pick 131: WR Anthony Johnson Buffalo
Hometown kid who fits a need? Why the heck not. I expect Zay Jones to take a big step in year 3 but if he doesn't McLaurin and Johnson will have every opportunity to become the number 2 and or 3 in Buffalo (also depends on Foster of course). 

Round 5: 
Pick 147: RB Miles Sanders Penn State
Just a one year starter but it was a heck of a year for him. Comparing him to Shady would not be fair but the shiftyness that he shows is on a similar level. Bills need to get younger at RB and could (spoil alert they will) double dip this draft.

Pick 158: OT Max Scharping Northern Illinois 
The Bills should likely be addressing Tackle earlier than this but Veldheer is a solid veteran option there while the Bills groom Max and continue seeing what they have in Mcdermott and potentially Sirles. 

Round 6:
Pick 181: CB Savion Smith Alabama
I am of the belief of taking someone in the secondary every year is the way to go. Smith fits the size that MCD likes in his corners and Smith showed well in his only season at Bama. However questions will be asked about his departure from LSU and how he competes.

Round 7:
Pick 225: DE Jonathan Ledbetter Georgia 
Hughes is getting up there, Lawson and Murphy are question marks on the other side and newly signed Mayowa is a rotational guy. Adding another body and a proven run stopper at End could be helpful.

Pick 228: RB Jacques Patrick Florida state
This big bodied back is an old school bruiser who had 10TDs in mostly a reserve role and a career avg. of 5.5 yards per rush. He can be some thunder to Miles lightening.

Depth chart:

QB: Allen, Barkley, Anderson
RB: McCoy, Ivory, Sanders, Patrick
FB: Dimarco
TE: James, Smith Jr., Croom
X: Foster, Johnson, D. Williams
Z: Williams, McLaurin
Slot: Jones, McKenzie
LT: Dawkins
LG: Spain
C: Morse, McCoy
RG: Teller, Long
RT: Veldheer, Scharping

DE: Hughes. Mayowa, Ledbetter
3T: Oliver, J. Phillips
1T: Lotulelei, H. Phillips
DE: Lawson, Murphy
WLB: Milano, Lacey
MLB: Edmunds, Stanford
SLB: Alexander, Hansen
CB1: White, Smith, Pitts
Slot: Johnson
CB2: Wallace/Roby
FS: Poyer, Bush
SS: Hyde, Neal

K: Haushcka
P: Boj
LS: Reid

[Nick]

I think Morse is a very realistic pick-up for us. Good fit. Spain as well. Don't love Veldheer but the low price tag makes it easier to swallow. 

Roby will definitely command a higher price tag. Swap the Tyrell Williams and Roby deals and I think they make more sense lol.

Love the draft. Ed Oliver is my favorite prospect. If we manage to fill a bunch of the OL holes, he's my #1 target and hopefully Beane's as well. Great job with the rest, although I think someone like Ben Powers (Oklahoma guard) would be a better pick in round 3 instead of McCoy only because he may make his way into the second round.

Overall, if this is what we did I'd be pretty excited.

[BillsGuy82]

Decent off season, not really a fan of Bradley Roby though

[Trentwannabe]

27 minutes ago, NickChowaniec said:

Roby will definitely command a higher price tag. Swap the Tyrell Williams and Roby deals and I think they make more sense lol.

You may be right about Roby but I stand by my Williams deal lol.

Someone is going to pay him number 1 or high end 2 money. I put him right around Allen Robinson from last off-season. 

[Trentwannabe]

4 minutes ago, BillsGuy82 said:

Decent off season, not really a fan of Bradley Roby though

Thanks. I am not sold on Roby either, I just wanted to add a veteran Corner to the mix. 

[BillsGuy82]

8 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

Thanks. I am not sold on Roby either, I just wanted to add a veteran Corner to the mix. 

Great value in draft with McLaurin, Johnson and Saivion Smith. I'm in the process of another collab mock draft and all 3 of these guys are gone half way through 4th round

[soflbillsfan]

i like it up until Williams, I am just not a believer in paying someone that much money at the wr position who is a 3rd wr on his current team. Bills have their deep threat in Foster and I think Tyrell is one who has a big game and then is invisible for the next 4-5. You are essentially paying him low tier #1 wr or above tier 2 wr money. Either way I cant justify beane spending the money even at a needy position like WR. I also am not a fan of the DE signing. All in all not bad, if I could change the tyrell and Mayowa signing for someone like Anthony barr this would be an extremely good offseason in the right direction. 

[Trentwannabe]

16 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

i like it up until Williams, I am just not a believer in paying someone that much money at the wr position who is a 3rd wr on his current team. Bills have their deep threat in Foster and I think Tyrell is one who has a big game and then is invisible for the next 4-5. You are essentially paying him low tier #1 wr or above tier 2 wr money. Either way I cant justify beane spending the money even at a needy position like WR. I also am not a fan of the DE signing. All in all not bad, if I could change the tyrell and Mayowa signing for someone like Anthony barr this would be an extremely good offseason in the right direction. 

Well Williams is the 3rd option but its not like its slouches in front of him. That also explains why his targets aren't there from week to week. When he was the only option in LA he had over 1000 yards receiving and 7tds. 

I like Foster too but one deep threat is hardly enough for a team, especially when that player is unproven. 

[soflbillsfan]

13 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

Well Williams is the 3rd option but its not like its slouches in front of him. That also explains why his targets aren't there from week to week. When he was the only option in LA he had over 1000 yards receiving and 7tds. 

I like Foster too but one deep threat is hardly enough for a team, especially when that player is unproven. 

well thats the thing even his big year before Mike Williams and when Keenan went down he had 3 games of 100+ yards but also 3 games of less than 30 yards. Every other game in between he was getting 40-70 yards and had 7 total td that year, is he really worth the 13 mil a year you project him to make? I think he will be good for 650 yds a season and 5 td, just dont see it worth the bills to pay him that money. That was also with a Philip Rivers who averages 4500 yards a season. 

[Trentwannabe]

1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

well thats the thing even his big year before Mike Williams and when Keenan went down he had 3 games of 100+ yards but also 3 games of less than 30 yards. Every other game in between he was getting 40-70 yards and had 7 total td that year, is he really worth the 13 mil a year you project him to make? I think he will be good for 650 yds a season and 5 td, just dont see it worth the bills to pay him that money. That was also with a Philip Rivers who averages 4500 yards a season. 

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on Williams. Seems like you view him as a faster Zay Jones. I see him more as an Allen Robinson who can be a low end 1. Robinson hit the market after missing almost an entire year and got an avg of 14 million with 25 guaranteed.

[soflbillsfan]

21 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on Williams. Seems like you view him as a faster Zay Jones. I see him more as an Allen Robinson who can be a low end 1. Robinson hit the market after missing almost an entire year and got an avg of 14 million with 25 guaranteed.

I am not really viewing him on a particular person just think the money isnt worth spending on these guys in hopes they can be #1 wr on the Bills. Allen Robinson isnt worth 14 mil a year but thats my opinion. Guys like Aj Green, Julio Jones, Hopkins, Brown those type of playmakers that can carry a wr corps or can count on them to make a play when it really counts are the guys i think worth spending the money on. Someone who has been able to consistently post solid stats through out his career and not have up and down games. My only knock on Aj Green is his injuries the last 2 years but outside of that these guys have been solid, maybe Tyrell turns it up on a new team I just would hate to go the Whaley route and swing for the fences and fail miserably when that money can be used on a more productive safer position that will have just as big of impact. But i agree with you we disagree on this discussion. Hopefully i am wrong if the bills do pay him and he does become a big time wr they need because the bills need that as they really havent had a top wr since Stevie Johnson, Lee Evand, Price, moulds etc. 

[Nick]

I rarely seem to agree on players with @soflbillsfan but I'm with him here.

That's way too much money for Tyrell Williams. I'd be fine having him here but at the price, hellllllll no. He's not worth that... 8-10 mil per would be his ceiling for me and even then I'm not sure I'm comfortable paying that. For example, I think Robert Woods is a superior player, as well as Tyler Lockett and both of those players are paid less than what you gave Tyrell.

The term might be pushing it over the edge for me too, a 3 year deal for 30-36 mil wouldn't be as bad because if he isn't as good as I think he is, we can stomach that contract for that shorter term. A 5 year deal is much tougher to swallow at the cap hit you have him at. 

I'd rather spend a draft choice on someone and spend our money on OL and Anthony Barr.

[soflbillsfan]

http://s.newyorkupstate.com/A0SlE9e

This would be an ideal offseason, and it has your guy @Trentwannabe

[Trentwannabe]

1 hour ago, NickChowaniec said:

For example, I think Robert Woods is a superior player, as well as Tyler Lockett and both of those players are paid less than what you gave Tyrell.

In fairness though, when Woods signed that deal a lot of people, many on this board included said it was way too much for Woods. When he gets his new deal and with the inflation of the cap, he'll be in the 16 million range.

Another thing is, look at the Jets who had to spend an avg. of 9 mil per year to keep Enunwa. I would take Tyrell Williams over him and with having to compete with other teams it'll make him pricey. 14 mil is likely too much but to get guys here we'll have to overpay. 

[soflbillsfan]

16 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

In fairness though, when Woods signed that deal a lot of people, many on this board included said it was way too much for Woods. When he gets his new deal and with the inflation of the cap, he'll be in the 16 million range.

Another thing is, look at the Jets who had to spend an avg. of 9 mil per year to keep Enunwa. I would take Tyrell Williams over him and with having to compete with other teams it'll make him pricey. 14 mil is likely too much but to get guys here we'll have to overpay. 

I think you are over thinking the cost of this. Enunwa, Woods, Lockett, Stills, Tyrell are all #2 wrs. I dont think Tyrell is going to get that amount. I think he will come away with a contract similar to Enunwa or Moncrief which is around 9-10 mil per year which has been the going rate for a #2 wr on a team which is what Tyrell is. Robert Woods is good and i hated that he left Buffalo but in no way would I pay him 16 mil if he were a free agent now let alone in 2022 when he is a free agent. Anything 14+ mil is stating this guy is your #1 playmaker and anything over 15 mil is elite status. There has never been flashes of elite status from tyrell let alone consistency of it. He cannot do what Julio, Aj, AB, Odel, Hill can do. I think Watkins, Evans and Cooks are getting over paid yet those guys to me are better then Tyrell. Realistically if bills were going to spend the money on him I hope its nothing more then a 3 year 30 mil deal because that is what his market is likely going to be. I would even say I would rather give Golden Tate that 3 years 30 mil over Tyrell because he has proven to be a playmaker after the catch, tyrell is just a tall fast target for deep threat, his possessional skills are meh as he tends to drop the ball quite often. I think this is the only real hang up we are having with your mock offseason, which I think is a fairly good offseason. Just dont want to be wrapped up in a crappy deal long term with a wr because your essentially putting all your eggs in that basket moving forward and that was one of Whaleys downfalls investing the future in Sammy Watkins and it failed miserably.