Building A Profile For A Bears/Matt Nagy RB

[soulman]

Building a Measurable Profile for the Andy Reid/Matt Nagy Running Back

Johnathan Wood | February 25th, 2019

https://dabearsblog.com/2019/building-a-rb-profile-for-chicagos-offense

 

The Combine starts soon, which means NFL coverage will be obsessed with 40 times, bench press reps, and various other physical metrics leading up to the draft.  I want to cut through the noise to see if I can figure out which numbers matter when it comes to running backs for Chicago’s offense. This is a variation of the offense Andy Reid runs in Kansas City, so I looked at the Combine stats of all the running backs the Chiefs have acquired since Reid showed up in 2012 to see if there were any trends. This can help us identify what running backs at the Combine – and in free agency – might makes sense for the Bears if they look to re-shape the position this offseason.

Building the Profile

There were 5 Chiefs RBs identified that were drafted by them, signed to a substantial deal in free agency or earned a meaningful role with the team as an undrafted free agent since Reid took over in 2012. These players were Knile Davis, Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware, Damien Williams, and Charcandrick West. I used Mock Draftable to look up their Combine data (or found data from their pro day when the Combine was not available) in every category I could find, and compared it to the average RB mark in each of these categories that Mock Draftable has compiled. Full data can be seen here.

Many of the measurables didn’t show any clear pattern, but I identified five which did: height, weight, 10 yard split, vertical jump, and broad jump.

• 4 of the 5 were below the average height, meaning they were 5’10” or shorter (the 5th was 5’11”)
• 4 of the 5 were above the average weight of 214 pounds
• 4 of the 4 measured had an average or faster first 10 yards of the 40 yard dash (the 5th doesn’t have a reported time)
• 4 of the 5 had an above-average vertical jump (35″ or more)
• 5 of the 5 had an above-average broad jump (118″ or more)

 

So there we have a physical profile established for running backs in this offense. They should be short but well built, have good acceleration (as evidenced by the 10 yard split), and be explosive (as evidenced by the jumps). Interestingly, the agility drills like 3-cone and short shuttle did not seem very important, as 4 of 5 RBs did worse than average in each category.

Overall, 1 of the 5 running backs hit all five thresholds, 1 hit 4/4 and didn’t have a measurement for the 5th, and three hit 4/5. So we should watch for running backs who hit at least 4/5 thresholds as potential fits for the Bears.

It should be noted that simply hitting these thresholds does not mean a player is a good RB, or that he will excel in Chicago’s offense. There is more that goes into it than just measurables. But it appears that players who excel in this offense typically possess traits that allow them to test well in these areas. I just wanted to make sure to note that testing alone does not tell the whole story (as we’ll see below). Think of this as looking for a physical style of player who should fit the offense. It offers no attempt at scouting out how good the player actually is.

 

Current Roster

Now that we have this data, let’s look at how RBs currently on the Bears roster match that profile. The table below shows Combine (or pro day) results in these three areas for every RB who finished 2018 with the Bears or is currently under contract with them. Missed thresholds are shown in red.

A few thoughts:

• Tarik Cohen doesn’t quite fit the mark, but I’m not too fussed about it because he’s more of a hybrid WR than a traditional RB. We already know he’s very good in this offense.
• Taquan Mizzell doesn’t fit the bill either, in many of the same ways that Cohen doesn’t, and likewise that says more about his role than anything else. Like with Cohen, we already know exactly how he performs is in this offense, which is to say not good. That’s not specific to this offense either; Mizzell simply isn’t an NFL-caliber player. He shouldn’t be on the Bears (or any NFL roster) in 2019.
• I’m most interested in Jordan Howard here. He just isn’t a fit for this offense, which isn’t surprising to anybody who watched the Bears in 2018. He doesn’t have the acceleration or explosion (not to mention pass-catching skills) to be enough of a threat in this kind of wide-open play style. That’s precisely why the Bears are likely going to replace/upgrade him this offseason.
• I know many fans liked Ryan Nall last offseason, but he’s basically a less athletic Jordan Howard. Maybe he can stick around as a short-yardage back for obvious running situations, but I highly doubt he’s going to earn a larger role than that.
• There’s not really any data on Benny Cunningham because he was hurt during the run-up to the draft, but we know he’s more of a special teams player than running back anyway. He won’t see a large role in the offense if the Bears bring him back.

 

Free Agency

Let’s take a look at notable free agent running backs to see who might be a good fit for the Bears if they choose to look there for improved depth.

A few thoughts:

• Not all of them are stars, but there are a number of players here who actually fit the physical profile quite well, especially if you remove the height requirement.
• Le’Veon Bell is going to be out of the Bears’ price range, and Tevin Coleman likely too. But the rest of these players could be realistic options. Guys on the more expensive end would include Mark Ingram and TJ Yeldon, while many of the rest could be part of a platoon with a draft pick for a fairly low price.
• Players who particularly interest me as inexpensive options include Latavius Murray and Ty Montgomery. Both are good fits in the offense who have proven to be decent NFL players but won’t cost a ton of money to sign if the Bears want to move on from Howard but still have a veteran presence to complement a draft pick.

[soulman]

Even if Pace doesn't trade Howard RB seems to be on the menu this year one way or another.

With the Combine coming up which is all about measurables and FA following soon thereafter I thought the approach taken here might help us to narrow down some of the backs who may be a fit based on how KC has selected them during much of Nagy's time with them and based on his running a similar offense here.

Both in FA and the draft there will be a whole lot of backs to look at so we may want to think of this as a way to "thin the herd" a bit.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

Holy crap, great article and good tool for looking at RB's going forward. 

 

I would like to know more about your goods and or services sir!

[soulman]

30 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

Holy crap, great article and good tool for looking at RB's going forward. 

 

I would like to know more about your goods and or services sir!

I just look for articles that can induce more conversation and debate.  Typically they'll be more data driven or analytical in nature.  I prefer to debate with the best facts we can obtain and avoid much of the speculation and raw guessing some of the more frequently quoted sources seem to favor.

Been doing it for many years on other sites and it often forms the basis for some great debates which to me is what a forum should be all about.

I can't take credit for more than locating some well developed articles where the author has done most if not all of the leg work and indeed by posting a link and their byline I give them full credit.  If they have a blog hopefully others will subscribe to it as well.

As we look at both the measurables and other characteristics of the available RBs we might be able to eliminate some who are very much off target from the type of back this offense tends to benefit from.  That doesn't guarantee much but it may give us a shot at eliminating those with 3 red marks.

[abstract_thought]

I really like Spencer Ware as an overlooked free agent option. He's been successful whenever given the opportunity and hasn't accumulated a ton of carries.

Elijah Holyfield is a name that's been thrown around here and fits the physical profile outlined above. He's also a very competitive runner who's grown up around pro athletes.

[Madmike90]

I think of all the FA running backs no one comes close to being as good a fit as Ingram and I would love to see him here for two or three years...

I would expect tho it to be a draft pick...Ideally Montgomery won't be impressive at the combine because truthfully athletic testing probably isn't his thing...it's his instincts as a runner that are off the charts...it's making a small movement that makes a guy bounce off you rather than taking you down...that is Montgomery's game and you can't test that in shorts...he seems like a great fit...Holyfield is my guy when it comes to pure running the ball...dude is so fast & powerful with next to no mileage on the clock...Miles Sanders really fits the bill as well...is we pick a guy in the 3rd I hope it is one of these three.

[WindyCity]

TJ Yeldon looks like a really good fit, but I am not sure that they want to spend actual money at the position.

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, WindyCity said:

TJ Yeldon looks like a really good fit, but I am not sure that they want to spend actual money at the position.

Yeldon to me seems like a guy we get on a deal that’s essentially a masked 1-year deal for solid money this year but from which we can get away next offseason for almost nothing after drafting the planned long term guy in round 3-4. Spencer Ware fits that bill as well (probably for a little less). Im not in any way opposed to this approach. I just want 2 new guys. If we’re trying to win THIS YEAR and after the 2018 showing and obvious pattern of statistical regression from Jordan Howard I want either a 1-year space holder vet and a round 3-4 rookie, or a longer term vet with a rookie in round 5+. 

[abstract_thought]

I don't see Yeldon as a great fit. He's a taller guy with a more upright running style and never impressed me much with his ability to break tackles or make defenders miss. I'd prefer Ware because I've seen him succeed in this offense.

Henderson, Montgomery, and Holyfield are my guys in the draft.

[soulman]

The more time I've spent digesting this data the more I feel Pace should go out and sign Spencer Ware.

Regardless of what we decide about Howard we know Cunningham and Mizzell need to be replaced.  Signing Ware not only takes care of that issue but it also frees Pace from absolutely having to draft a RB in rounds 3-5.  To a degree I think that may depend upon whether or not we can hold onto Callahan.

I'm gonna assume as I have pretty much all along that Amos will leave quite possibly for Denver.  Callahan is more like a 50/50, 60/40 possibility to stick. I can see Bush taking Amos' spot but not McManis taking Callahan's without more competition either by a FA or a rookie draftee.  Then we also have to consider OL and OLB/Edge as almost annual needs.  So when you add RB and/or possibly WR or TE that 4-5 spots and only 3 mid round picks.

Pace may manufacture a trade for Howard for another pick but that's far from assured if we believe that he has shopped him a bit before and not found he could get full value for him.  Howard had a down year so it's tough to think his value has climbed and if we can't get at least an early 4th I'd keep him.

Signing Ware may not seem all that significant but he could be a key pickup that frees Pace to draft BPA in rounds 3-5 and fill any of the gaps he needs to without being too position obsessed.  I think his recent injuries make him a good prospect for a one year deal we can always extend or bring him back if it's earned and he gives us a back whose a plug and play RB in this offense and very capable #2 to Howard or a partner with rookie draftee this year or next depending upon how Pace plays it.

I'm looking for cheap but effective depth and Ware seems to fit that hole.

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, soulman said:

The more time I've spent digesting this data the more I feel Pace should go out and sign Spencer Ware.

Regardless of what we decide about Howard we know Cunningham and Mizzell need to be replaced.  Signing Ware not only takes care of that issue but it also frees Pace from absolutely having to draft a RB in rounds 3-5.  To a degree I think that may depend upon whether or not we can hold onto Callahan.

I'm gonna assume as I have pretty much all along that Amos will leave quite possibly for Denver.  Callahan is more like a 50/50, 60/40 possibility to stick. I can see Bush taking Amos' spot but not McManis taking Callahan's without more competition either by a FA or a rookie draftee.  Then we also have to consider OL and OLB/Edge as almost annual needs.  So when you add RB and/or possibly WR or TE that 4-5 spots and only 3 mid round picks.

Pace may manufacture a trade for Howard for another pick but that's far from assured if we believe that he has shopped him a bit before and not found he could get full value for him.  Howard had a down year so it's tough to think his value has climbed and if we can't get at least an early 4th I'd keep him.

Signing Ware may not seem all that significant but he could be a key pickup that frees Pace to draft BPA in rounds 3-5 and fill any of the gaps he needs to without being too position obsessed.  I think his recent injuries make him a good prospect for a one year deal we can always extend or bring him back if it's earned and he gives us a back whose a plug and play RB in this offense and very capable #2 to Howard or a partner with rookie draftee this year or next depending upon how Pace plays it.

I'm looking for cheap but effective depth and Ware seems to fit that hole.

I like but don’t love Ware. He’s been effective when he’s been healthy but that hasn’t been often enough for me. He missed all of 2017 with a knee injury and then after being named starter with Hunt’s release he only made it 2 weeks before a hamstring injury had him miss a few weeks and lose the job to career nobody Damian Williams, who admittedly played really well but also made Ware immediately entirely expendable. 

If our adds are Ware and another guy then the other guy has to be Plan A IMO, and while it’s far from unfathomable to expect a rookie pick from round 3/4 to be a significant piece in year 1 you can’t go into camp essentially counting on it as a team with legitimate Super Bowl expectations. It’s just as likely if not more so that player gives you Kalen Ballage’s or CJ Prosise’s or Devontae Booker’s rookie year than that of a year one stud. We need a 2019 upgrade and a long term one. I’m not sure Ware is either. 

[Sugashane]

24 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I like but don’t love Ware. He’s been effective when he’s been healthy but that hasn’t been often enough for me. He missed all of 2017 with a knee injury and then after being named starter with Hunt’s release he only made it 2 weeks before a hamstring injury had him miss a few weeks and lose the job to career nobody Damian Williams, who admittedly played really well but also made Ware immediately entirely expendable. 

If our adds are Ware and another guy then the other guy has to be Plan A IMO, and while it’s far from unfathomable to expect a rookie pick from round 3/4 to be a significant piece in year 1 you can’t go into camp essentially counting on it as a team with legitimate Super Bowl expectations. It’s just as likely if not more so that player gives you Kalen Ballage’s or CJ Prosise’s or Devontae Booker’s rookie year than that of a year one stud. We need a 2019 upgrade and a long term one. I’m not sure Ware is either. 

Speaking of Ballage since we both were really high on him, Gase was an idiot to get him only 4 more rushing attempts than Tannehill got.

 

Agree on the rest too.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Speaking of Ballage since we both were really high on him, Gase was an idiot to get him only 4 more rushing attempts than Tannehill got.

 

Agree on the rest too.

Still think Ballage is a great fit for the Nagy offense too. Like him here as much as any of this year’s round 3/4 guys. Guessing he gets a significant role there this year with Gore gone. 

Speaking of ASU running backs, Eno Benjamin (Jr. this year) would also be a perfect fit with Nagy. He’s listed at 5’10” 201 but he runs with a lot of power and speed and is an excellent receiver. 1,030 yards last year after contact. That’s absurd.

The run at 2:10 is just beastly. 

[soulman]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I like but don’t love Ware. He’s been effective when he’s been healthy but that hasn’t been often enough for me. He missed all of 2017 with a knee injury and then after being named starter with Hunt’s release he only made it 2 weeks before a hamstring injury had him miss a few weeks and lose the job to career nobody Damian Williams, who admittedly played really well but also made Ware immediately entirely expendable. 

If our adds are Ware and another guy then the other guy has to be Plan A IMO, and while it’s far from unfathomable to expect a rookie pick from round 3/4 to be a significant piece in year 1 you can’t go into camp essentially counting on it as a team with legitimate Super Bowl expectations. It’s just as likely if not more so that player gives you Kalen Ballage’s or CJ Prosise’s or Devontae Booker’s rookie year than that of a year one stud. We need a 2019 upgrade and a long term one. I’m not sure Ware is either. 

I don't see Ware as an upgrade.  I see him as an inexpensive backup to Howard or a draft pick who knows the offense and has good skills as a receiver.

We tend to be focused on upgrading Howard this year but what if we can't?  If Howard is still our #1 RB in 2019 I'd like to upgrade our backups to him and that would be Mizzell and Cunningham.  That's how Ware might fit in 2019.

If, on the other hand we can trade Howard, and draft a rookie to replace him Ware could be just as valuable as a backup and a mentor while the rookie learns the offense.  He could be the RB version of Chase Daniel but with more utility.

Ware's health is obviously a factor and a contingency but I'll have to depend on Pace and Nagy for what they know about that.  I can only assume he is or will be healthy enough for a backup role.  If not then this plan won't work as suggested.

The idea here is to keep Pace out of a spot where he has to take a RB quickly choosing from those who've fallen to the end of round three.  Of course he may trade up for his too.  We don't really know.  Ware is an insurance plan of a sorts.

[AZBearsFan]

10 minutes ago, soulman said:

I don't see Ware as an upgrade.  I see him as an inexpensive backup to Howard or a draft pick who knows the offense and has good skills as a receiver.

We tend to be focused on upgrading Howard this year but what if we can't?  If Howard is still our #1 RB in 2019 I'd like to upgrade our backups to him and that would be Mizzell and Cunningham.  That's how Ware might fit in 2019.

If, on the other hand we can trade Howard, and draft a rookie to replace him Ware could be just as valuable as a backup and a mentor while the rookie learns the offense.  He could be the RB version of Chase Daniel but with more utility.

Ware's health is obviously a factor and a contingency but I'll have to depend on Pace and Nagy for what they know about that.  I can only assume he is or will be healthy enough for a backup role.  If not then this plan won't work as suggested.

The idea here is to keep Pace out of a spot where he has to take a RB quickly choosing from those who've fallen to the end of round three.  Of course he may trade up for his too.  We don't really know.  Ware is an insurance plan of a sorts.

Everything you just said only makes me think even more that the Bears will be looking for a starting RB in FA at least for 2019. In that regard Mark Ingram continues to make a ton of sense paired with a draft pick. Probably get him at about a $5M hit for 2019, which if Howard is released or traded away for peanuts is a $3M Cap hit add from where we sit today (or just about the amount of room Long’s restructure just cleared), and he’s likely be on a deal you can get away from in 2020 for very little provided the rookie is ready to take over. Ingram is also a guy who has shown to be able to be productive in a rotation.