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Building A Profile For A Bears/Matt Nagy RB


soulman

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On 2/26/2019 at 8:10 AM, Madmike90 said:

I think of all the FA running backs no one comes close to being as good a fit as Ingram and I would love to see him here for two or three years...

I would expect tho it to be a draft pick...Ideally Montgomery won't be impressive at the combine because truthfully athletic testing probably isn't his thing...it's his instincts as a runner that are off the charts...it's making a small movement that makes a guy bounce off you rather than taking you down...that is Montgomery's game and you can't test that in shorts...he seems like a great fit...Holyfield is my guy when it comes to pure running the ball...dude is so fast & powerful with next to no mileage on the clock...Miles Sanders really fits the bill as well...is we pick a guy in the 3rd I hope it is one of these three.

I'd be good with any of those three... curious to see how this plays out. Gun to my head, I think Pace is targeting a RB with our first pick and a safety with our second. I know it's foolish to pigeonhole but I've only got 8% of my football brain activated right now lol

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13 minutes ago, G08 said:

I'd be good with any of those three... curious to see how this plays out. Gun to my head, I think Pace is targeting a RB with our first pick and a safety with our second. I know it's foolish to pigeonhole but I've only got 8% of my football brain activated right now lol

If we’re truly in win now mode I think the 2019 starting RB will come from FA. At least the starter to begin the year. It’s clear that they aren’t satisfied with Howard, and given the importance to Nagy’s offense I can’t see them going into 2019 with a big question mark there or with Howard as the projected starter. Plus, every year Pace has done a good job of hitting all of our top needs in FA to allow himself the flexibility to not HAVE to target a specific spot in the draft. I don’t expect that to change now. I truly think that in 3 weeks one of Ingram or Coleman is going to be on our roster. I also think that we will still draft a RB even after we add one of them, though not likely in round 3 or 4.

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"It’s for this reason, along with the looming contract situation that rumors persist about the Bears possibly moving him. Buffalo has the means and the motive to go after him. They have enough cap space to hand him a long-term extension and 10 picks in the upcoming draft. That including two 4th rounders. They could simply flip one to Chicago, who has only five total, in the deal."

 

Get er done...

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I think he simply wants a good back who is also a good receiver.

Barkely I think is the ideal, but Barkley's dont grow on trees.  Cohen fits the mold, but is small so that is limiting in some obvious ways even though it is an advantage in a few. 

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6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Everything you just said only makes me think even more that the Bears will be looking for a starting RB in FA at least for 2019. In that regard Mark Ingram continues to make a ton of sense paired with a draft pick. Probably get him at about a $5M hit for 2019, which if Howard is released or traded away for peanuts is a $3M Cap hit add from where we sit today (or just about the amount of room Long’s restructure just cleared), and he’s likely be on a deal you can get away from in 2020 for very little provided the rookie is ready to take over. Ingram is also a guy who has shown to be able to be productive in a rotation. 

Fair enough but I would not want to spend $5 mil on Ingram vs maybe $1.5 mil max on Ware unless Pace's intention is to replace Howard with Ingram for 1 year and make a rookie his backup.  I also don't know why we'd spend $5 mil on another 30 year old RB when we declined to pay Matt Forte that kind of money.  To be honest with you for the $3 mil difference I'd just keep Howard.

Pace made it clear in his presser yesterday that keeping both Callahan and Amos is not totally out of the question.  He said they've been working through that and have a plan.  If that opportunity is still on the table that $3 mil of cap would be better spend keeping Callahan at the very least and if NE doesn't tag Gostkowski now that Gould has been tagged we may be in on him.

Howard had an off year but remember in his last 5 games in December, after we'd adjusted back to using more zone blocking, he got more carries (avg 18 vs 14 per game), better yardage (399 yds) and a 4.53 ypc avg vs the 3.3 ypc he's been averaging prior to that.  I would agree with you that Howard is not likely to be the future but he's not altogether ineffective as the here and now guy.

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15 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I think he simply wants a good back who is also a good receiver.

Barkely I think is the ideal, but Barkley's dont grow on trees.  Cohen fits the mold, but is small so that is limiting in some obvious ways even though it is an advantage in a few. 

Then by all means we should draft one who is or can but I wouldn't hesitate to add a vet RB who is also a good receiver without overspending.

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12 hours ago, soulman said:

Fair enough but I would not want to spend $5 mil on Ingram vs maybe $1.5 mil max on Ware unless Pace's intention is to replace Howard with Ingram for 1 year and make a rookie his backup.  I also don't know why we'd spend $5 mil on another 30 year old RB when we declined to pay Matt Forte that kind of money.  To be honest with you for the $3 mil difference I'd just keep Howard.

Pace made it clear in his presser yesterday that keeping both Callahan and Amos is not totally out of the question.  He said they've been working through that and have a plan.  If that opportunity is still on the table that $3 mil of cap would be better spend keeping Callahan at the very least and if NE doesn't tag Gostkowski now that Gould has been tagged we may be in on him.

Howard had an off year but remember in his last 5 games in December, after we'd adjusted back to using more zone blocking, he got more carries (avg 18 vs 14 per game), better yardage (399 yds) and a 4.53 ypc avg vs the 3.3 ypc he's been averaging prior to that.  I would agree with you that Howard is not likely to be the future but he's not altogether ineffective as the here and now guy.

To be clear I don’t think Howard is a bad player. But his limited skill set impacts EVERYTHING we do on offense. Because he isn’t really a receiving threat his presence on the field dictates to the defense what we are most likely to do. It makes us easier to defend against, and that makes things harder for everyone else.

Looking at what KC was able to get from Damian Williams it seems to me that the diverse skill set in this offense is maybe more important than overall talent. That allows Nagy the best opportunity to create favorable matchups and make things for Mitch easier because we can be so much less predictable. Howard without question IMO limits Nagy’s ability to set our offense for continuous success, and unless he all of a sudden learns to be a really good receiver that isn’t something that’s going to change. The key to us getting to the Super Bowl this year IMO is for our offense to evolve and grow well beyond the year 1 model, and more than any other part of our offense Howard is holding that back. 

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4 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

To be clear I don’t think Howard is a bad player. But his limited skill set impacts EVERYTHING we do on offense. Because he isn’t really a receiving threat his presence on the field dictates to the defense what we are most likely to do. It makes us easier to defend against, and that makes things harder for everyone else.

Looking at what KC was able to get from Damian Williams it seems to me that the diverse skill set in this offense is maybe more important than overall talent. That allows Nagy the best opportunity to create favorable matchups and make things for Mitch easier because we can be so much less predictable. Howard without question IMO limits Nagy’s ability to set our offense for continuous success, and unless he all of a sudden learns to be a really good receiver that isn’t something that’s going to change. The key to us getting to the Super Bowl this year IMO is for our offense to evolve and grow well beyond the year 1 model, and more than any other part of our offense Howard is holding that back. 

Howard has improved his catching skills but he'll never be a great pass catcher.  I think he's very limited in whatever routes he can run.  So we agree on that much and that it would be good if we could trade Howard and replace him with a more versatile RB.  But if we can't we need Plan B.

My issue with Ingram is cost.  Unless he's our starter and can handle being a #1 RB for 16 games we can't really afford $4-$5 mil for the guy.  He got $4.6 mil in 2018 as a part time back.  The other question is at age 30 can he even handle the 275 touches he averaged in 2016-2017 when he was down to 159 last year?

I suggested Ware because he fits as a more versatile back and could probably be had for around $1.5 mil.  If we could sign Ingram for anywhere near that of course he'd be a better choice but not for 3x that much as a complimentary RB.  Then you'd have to see him as a starter and he'd have to be willing to accept a pretty fair amount in per game bonuses and other incentives.  He's not a real high mileage back so that may be a plus but he's still a 30 year old RB who was not a full time starter in 2018 and who also missed 4 games.  Too much risk for $4-$5 mil.  Gotta play for less.  JMHO

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

Howard has improved his catching skills but he'll never be a great pass catcher.  I think he's very limited in whatever routes he can run.  So we agree on that much and that it would be good if we could trade Howard and replace him with a more versatile RB.  But if we can't we need Plan B.

My issue with Ingram is cost.  Unless he's our starter and can handle being a #1 RB for 16 games we can't really afford $4-$5 mil for the guy.  He got $4.6 mil in 2018 as a part time back.  The other question is at age 30 can he even handle the 275 touches he averaged in 2016-2017 when he was down to 159 last year?

I suggested Ware because he fits as a more versatile back and could probably be had for around $1.5 mil.  If we could sign Ingram for anywhere near that of course he'd be a better choice but not for 3x that much as a complimentary RB.  Then you'd have to see him as a starter and he'd have to be willing to accept a pretty fair amount in per game bonuses and other incentives.  He's not a real high mileage back so that may be a plus but he's still a 30 year old RB who was not a full time starter in 2018 and who also missed 4 games.  Too much risk for $4-$5 mil.  Gotta play for less.  JMHO

FWIW Ingram was way down in touches because Kamara is a top 5 NFL back who was drafted after Ingram signed the deal that paid him $4.6M last year. His explosiveness is evident watching him in action and he’s a far more complete product in the passing game than Howard. If you sign Ingram or Coleman they’re your 15-18 carry back next year and possibly beyond.

I just don’t want to pin the hopes for a good portion of our offensive improvement in 2019, which I think is the key to us getting to the Super Bowl, on a half measure FA runner, needing a mid-round rookie to immediately be Hunt, Kamara or David Johnson, or Jordan Howard doing a complete turnaround on what’s been a 2-year regression in an offense in which he will never be a great fit. 

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FWIW:  Both Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace spoke at the Combine on Wednesday and both talked about the running back position. Nagy, in particular, explained what he is looking for at the position in his offense.

“When you’re dealing with running backs for us, in this offense, you want to be able to have a guy that has really good vision that can make guys miss,” Nagy said. “And at the same time, there’s that balance of being a hybrid, being able to make things happen in the passing game, too, but yet where you’re not one-dimensional. That’s not easy. There's a lot of backs in this draft right now that are one-dimensional. There are some that are hybrids and some that are just scat guys.”

 

So if we can put this info together with the data on what kind of a profile and measurables might attract Nagy and Pace to a certain back we can possibly narrow the shopping list down a bit more as far as both vet RBs and rookie draft prospects.  Clearly some prospects won't fit Nagy's concept.

Also if we look at the traits Nagy covets we see that Howard does in some ways fit.  He has excellent vision and while he doesn't have Cohen's elusiveness (who does) when running behind zone blocking he's shown some ability to avoid the first tackler and get to the second level.  What he's not is the true hybrid back Nagy would like to have ergo our reason for looking to trade him and find a hybrid replacement with excellent vision.

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5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

FWIW Ingram was way down in touches because Kamara is a top 5 NFL back who was drafted after Ingram signed the deal that paid him $4.6M last year. His explosiveness is evident watching him in action and he’s a far more complete product in the passing game than Howard. If you sign Ingram or Coleman they’re your 15-18 carry back next year and possibly beyond.

I just don’t want to pin the hopes for a good portion of our offensive improvement in 2019, which I think is the key to us getting to the Super Bowl, on a half measure FA runner, needing a mid-round rookie to immediately be Hunt, Kamara or David Johnson, or Jordan Howard doing a complete turnaround on what’s been a 2-year regression in an offense in which he will never be a great fit. 

Yeah I know that but nothing I know of can turn back the hands of time and Ingram is still a 30 year old RB who may not be able to handle 15-20 carries per game.  IF he can, and IF the price is right I have no objection to him for at least one year to see how much he still has in his tank.   Pace would know best since he came from NOLA himself.

Tevin Coleman doesn't interest me at all but then I'm not the Bears GM or HC.

For me it's all about cost vs production.  We're now more of a passing team and one who spreads touches around a lot.  Whether it's Howard or Ingram or another, Cohen will still be in the mix as a Joker Back and in all likelihood we'll also have a rookie draftee who'll get some carries as well.  Ingram may function better with fewer carries than Howard and it may also prolong his career but we'd still have to get him for the right price.

And as for our SB chances I doubt who we have at RB will be the difference maker.  That part will be on Mitch and the defense.  Hell, NE has had a different RB nearly every SB they've ever played in.  When was the last time a RB was a SB MVP?   It was 20 years ago.  I'd love for this offense to have had Matt Forte in his prime but sadly we can't make that happen either.

But lemme just say that if we can shed Howard and sign Ingram of $2.5-$3 mil and draft a younger prospect he can mentor I'd be down with that.

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14 hours ago, soulman said:

Yeah I know that but nothing I know of can turn back the hands of time and Ingram is still a 30 year old RB who may not be able to handle 15-20 carries per game.  IF he can, and IF the price is right I have no objection to him for at least one year to see how much he still has in his tank.   Pace would know best since he came from NOLA himself.

Tevin Coleman doesn't interest me at all but then I'm not the Bears GM or HC.

For me it's all about cost vs production.  We're now more of a passing team and one who spreads touches around a lot.  Whether it's Howard or Ingram or another, Cohen will still be in the mix as a Joker Back and in all likelihood we'll also have a rookie draftee who'll get some carries as well.  Ingram may function better with fewer carries than Howard and it may also prolong his career but we'd still have to get him for the right price.

And as for our SB chances I doubt who we have at RB will be the difference maker.  That part will be on Mitch and the defense.  Hell, NE has had a different RB nearly every SB they've ever played in.  When was the last time a RB was a SB MVP?   It was 20 years ago.  I'd love for this offense to have had Matt Forte in his prime but sadly we can't make that happen either.

But lemme just say that if we can shed Howard and sign Ingram of $2.5-$3 mil and draft a younger prospect he can mentor I'd be down with that.

Those NE teams all had at RB what the Bears want at RB though - guys with versatile skill sets. And I don’t disagree that Mitch is the biggest piece to our offensive growth but we put him in the best position to excel by giving him more to work with. Jordan Howard is a RB playing in the wrong era. In 1993 he’s exactly what 90% of the NFL wants at the position, but in 2019 he limits what your offense can do as your primary RB. He limits what this offense can do, specifically. I don’t have any problem with him being our goal line back or 4th quarter clock grinding banger. That’s where his role should be in a Matt Nagy offense much like Blount for NE a few years back. But I think that’s where his expected role should end outside of experienced depth. 

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10 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Those NE teams all had at RB what the Bears want at RB though - guys with versatile skill sets. And I don’t disagree that Mitch is the biggest piece to our offensive growth but we put him in the best position to excel by giving him more to work with. Jordan Howard is a RB playing in the wrong era. In 1993 he’s exactly what 90% of the NFL wants at the position, but in 2019 he limits what your offense can do as your primary RB. He limits what this offense can do, specifically. I don’t have any problem with him being our goal line back or 4th quarter clock grinding banger. That’s where his role should be in a Matt Nagy offense much like Blount for NE a few years back. But I think that’s where his expected role should end outside of experienced depth. 

And it could be that's a solution Nagy finally comes to. 

One thing I do admire about Nagy is he's smart enough to figure out how to work with what he's got.  His offense was missing some pieces this past year some due to injuries and some due to improper fit or simple under performance but even with that and a virtual rookie QB is his offense he found ways to score far more than we had been.

As much as I'm resigned that either Amos or Callahan or both may leave in FA I'm becoming more convinced Howard will still be here and that Nagy will need to focus on how to get him more productive again while still being able to expand his offense. Ensuring Long and Massie will return is a big deal since it's running behind them where Jordan has been most effective.

I'm sure we'll add another RB in FA or the Draft or both but Nagy also need to create ways for them and Cohen to also be more effective in the running game.  How we have used Howard in the past and will use him and Cohen going forward are issues he needs to work out far better than he did in 2018.  That was the third element in Howard's decline and IMHO it impacted Cohen as well.

I'm just not gonna sweat what we do at RB as much as I am PK and doing what we can to either keep our secondary intact or assure we replace who we lose with capable talent.  For me RB is less of a priority than those issues because we can win games with Howard, Cohen, and suitable third back and we will keep losing close games if we don't find a dependable PK and our defense falters.  JMHO

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On ‎2‎/‎27‎/‎2019 at 11:27 PM, G08 said:

I'd be good with any of those three... curious to see how this plays out. Gun to my head, I think Pace is targeting a RB with our first pick and a safety with our second. I know it's foolish to pigeonhole but I've only got 8% of my football brain activated right now lol

Yeah, I'm not sure about this. It may turn out this way, but JJ Stankevitz asked Pace about this at the combine in terms of finally picking for need over BPA since the roster is the deepest it's been in years and he said that line of thinking can get teams in trouble, so I truly believe they'll go BPA again; however if they trade Howard and lose Amos, I hope BPA is RB and SS :)

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