Off-Topic: The WORLD CHAMPION Washington Nationals Thread

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, MKnight82 said:

This is so stupid, if the reports about the Nats offer at 10 years, $300 mil at the beginning of the offseason is true, that's $30 mil per season.  He only got $330 over 13 years, or $25 mil per season.  The only thing this deal does is allow him to say biggest contract in history.  It is in fact, a worse deal than the Nats offered him.  

I hear you, and you’re right about that, but the difference in the two deals is 3 extra years (2029-2031) and an extra $30M being paid out. So in return for that extra $30M, he’s giving up the opportunity to be a FA in those years.

The thing is, I sincerely doubt anyone is going to want to pay Bryce Harper money to play baseball in 2029-2031, at ages 36.5 to 38.5. Three true outcomes (K/BB/HR) guys like him do not age well. At all. His swing and miss tendencies aren’t as pronounced yet as a lot of the prominent TTO guys, and he’s obviously a more gifted hitter than most of them — but it’s a very steep decline once the ferocious bat speed starts to drop. 

His defense has already started to decline (well, it was abysmal last season at least, but I guess it may have been more of an issue of him not trying) and he’s already had injury issues through his early 20s. I’d be a little surprised if he’s not considered mostly a 1B/DH type by his early 30s. I wouldn’t have given him 10 years, and I think 13 years is just goofy.

In my view, that extra $30M is basically just free money. I don’t think anyone could reasonably expect him to still be a productive baseball player at the end of either of those contracts. Anything is possible, but by far the most likely outcome is they’re just handing him money for nothing at that point. 

Don’t despair, Nats fans. It’s much more fun to get to root against Bryce Harper than it is to have to root for him. 

[Woz]

7 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Weak.  Webby said we're supposed to have less mega threads.  

For football threads, yes. For non-football threads in football forums, not so much. Technically, I could just lock these all up and redirect you to the appropriate forums.

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, e16bball said:

I hear you, and you’re right about that, but the difference in the two deals is 3 extra years (2029-2031) and an extra $30M being paid out. So in return for that extra $30M, he’s giving up the opportunity to be a FA in those years.

The thing is, I sincerely doubt anyone is going to want to pay Bryce Harper money to play baseball in 2029-2031, at ages 36.5 to 38.5. Three true outcomes (K/BB/HR) guys like him do not age well. At all. His swing and miss tendencies aren’t as pronounced yet as a lot of the prominent TTO guys, and he’s obviously a more gifted hitter than most of them — but it’s a very steep decline once the ferocious bat speed starts to drop. 

His defense has already started to decline (well, it was abysmal last season at least, but I guess it may have been more of an issue of him not trying) and he’s already had injury issues through his early 20s. I’d be a little surprised if he’s not considered mostly a 1B/DH type by his early 30s. I wouldn’t have given him 10 years, and I think 13 years is just goofy.

In my view, that extra $30M is basically just free money. I don’t think anyone could reasonably expect him to still be a productive baseball player at the end of either of those contracts. Anything is possible, but by far the most likely outcome is they’re just handing him money for nothing at that point. 

Don’t despair, Nats fans. It’s much more fun to get to root against Bryce Harper than it is to have to root for him. 

Ya but there's a new CBA negotiation happening in like 2 years, in which case I think things are going to get better for FAs.  He could of taken a short term mega deal from the Giants or Dodgers for a much higher per year amount then taken the 10 year extension then.  Would have maximized his earnings a lot more.  Also, there's no opt out clause in this contract for 13 years, that's crazy from both sides.  

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

For football threads, yes. For non-football threads in football forums, not so much. Technically, I could just lock these all up and redirect you to the appropriate forums.

[Woz]

3 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Ya but there's a new CBA negotiation happening in like 2 years, in which case I think things are going to get better for FAs.  He could of taken a short term mega deal from the Giants or Dodgers for a much higher per year amount then taken the 10 year extension then.  Would have maximized his earnings a lot more.  Also, there's no opt out clause in this contract for 13 years, that's crazy from both sides.  

Flipside is that barring a catastrophic injury, he's going to be employed until he's almost 40 playing the sport.

I think it's silly, especially since one of the motivations for him was having a long term contract to be "The Man" in the final destination. Had he taken the Nats offer, he would have cemented that here most likely.

He got his deal. *shrugs* Okay then. See you April 2nd.

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, Woz said:

Flipside is that barring a catastrophic injury, he's going to be employed until he's almost 40 playing the sport.

I think it's silly, especially since one of the motivations for him was having a long term contract to be "The Man" in the final destination. Had he taken the Nats offer, he would have cemented that here most likely.

He got his deal. *shrugs* Okay then. See you April 2nd.

Its clear all he cared about was surpassing Stanton's record $325 number.  

[Woz]

31 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Its clear all he cared about was surpassing Stanton's record $325 number.  

Well he got his number. Congrats. Not sure that helps in the long run, but okay.

[lavar703]

Any fan mad at Rizzo or the Lerners for not matching this is dumb. You can’t pay this amount of money the third or fourth best player on your team not including pitchers. You just can’t. 

[e16bball]

55 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Ya but there's a new CBA negotiation happening in like 2 years, in which case I think things are going to get better for FAs.  He could of taken a short term mega deal from the Giants or Dodgers for a much higher per year amount then taken the 10 year extension then.  Would have maximized his earnings a lot more.  Also, there's no opt out clause in this contract for 13 years, that's crazy from both sides.  

The lack of opt-out really is wild. Obviously the team can always opt out via a trade, but still — that’s a long contract for nobody to demand an exit ramp. 

 

As to taking a short-term contract, that would certainly be the high-risk, high-reward approach, if he was inclined to gamble on himself. I just don’t know tha he’s a great gamble. 

The last 3 seasons, he’s been worth 11.3 wins per FanGraphs. That’s actually the much more generous valuation of the two most prominent WAR formulas, as he’s only been worth 7.5 wins according to the Baseball-Reference version. But even using the fWAR total, he’s only been the 34th most valuable position player in MLB over that span. And even if you back out the defense and durability aspects — neither one of which is his strong suit — and just base it on hitting, his 132 wRC+ only ranks 22nd in MLB over that span. 

If he repeated that performance over the course of a 3-year “mega contract,” there is almost zero chance that someone would give him a 10 year deal (or anything close) at age 29. At this point, his monstrous 2015 season and his “once in a lifetime prospect” luster are still recent enough to coax teams into seeing him as an unquestioned superstar. But his play since that legendary season hasn’t lived up to the superstar perception, on the whole. He’s been more “borderline All-Star” than “generational superstar” over a several-year span now.

I understand what you’re saying, a really smart buddy of mine said the same thing. But I think there’s way too much risk in his profile to throw away a guaranteed $330M and roll the dice that he gets back to where he once was.

[Woz]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

Any fan mad at Rizzo or the Lerners for not matching this is dumb. You can’t pay this amount of money the third or fourth best player on your team not including pitchers. You just can’t. 

They made a fair offer and the Harper took one that was longer and worth more in total (if not in AAV). If anyone's upset at the team, they either just don't get it or were never going to be happy.

[Woz]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

But I think there’s way too much risk in his profile to throw away a guaranteed $330M and roll the dice that he gets back to where he once was.

But he was willing to throw away 10y/$300M to claim "biggest contract EVUH" instead of cementing himself as potentially the Nats' Jeter.

*shrugs* He chased the coin. If that's what he wants, so be it.

[Jeezy Fanatic]

I don't fault the Nats at all. We have 3/4 years of cost-controlled Juan Soto/Victor Robles in the outfield. That money will be better spent trying to hold onto Rendon/Trea.

PErsonally, I wish Harper no ill-will (obviously), but professionally, since he went to the Filthies, I hope he hits .240 every year with continued poor defensive metrics.

[MikeT14]

13 hours ago, Woz said:

But he was willing to throw away 10y/$300M to claim "biggest contract EVUH" instead of cementing himself as potentially the Nats' Jeter.

*shrugs* He chased the coin. If that's what he wants, so be it.

The deferred money is huge too. Sure it's nice to have the Bobby Bonilla deal too, but he can also get $330 over 13. 

[Skinsin2013]

F him. Chased the record deal when Trout will probably break it this year or next. I hope he freezes his *** off in Philly. And that first 0 for 8 slump... can't wait til they boo his *** off.

[Woz]

6 hours ago, Jeezy Fanatic said:

PErsonally, I wish Harper no ill-will (obviously), but professionally, since he went to the Filthies, I hope he hits .240 every year with continued poor defensive metrics.

Honestly had he chased the money anywhere outside of the NL East, I would have a lot less problems with it. Going to the Phillies ... well, good luck with that.