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Off-Topic: The WORLD CHAMPION Washington Nationals Thread


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1 minute ago, lavar703 said:

And the Lerners don’t have to pay Trea! They get to keep pocketing the money but those prospects though...

It’s not even a good prospect deal. They should’ve gotten Gonsolin or Lux added to Gray and Ruiz

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Just now, naptownskinsfan said:

It’s not even a good prospect deal. They should’ve gotten Gonsolin or Lux added to Gray and Ruiz

The Lerners are a joke. Like I said, this same thing is going to happen with Soto and the diehards will cheer it on. It’s honestly mind boggling 

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Just now, lavar703 said:

The Lerners are a joke. Like I said, this same thing is going to happen with Soto and the diehards will cheer it on. It’s honestly mind boggling 

Honestly think they need to trade Soto because I don’t see the window reopening until after his free agency, especially with the deferred money due to Strasburg and Scherzer. They also have the worst farm in MLB. It’s not a good spot to be in as an organization that’s for sure 

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28 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Honestly think they need to trade Soto because I don’t see the window reopening until after his free agency, especially with the deferred money due to Strasburg and Scherzer. They also have the worst farm in MLB. It’s not a good spot to be in as an organization that’s for sure 

They need to trade him because they can’t fool anyone into thinking they’ll pay him. 

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4 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

They need to trade him because they can’t fool anyone into thinking they’ll pay him. 

We’re going to be looking like the 2005 Nats out there! 😂 

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1 minute ago, turtle28 said:

We’re going to be looking like the 2005 Nats out there! 😂 

I’m being serious though. I’ll put it like this, my fandom is on the line with Soto. It might sound silly but I won’t sit here and watch the Lerners offer bad faith contracts and let every star position player not named Zimmerman leave. If Soto goes then I’m out. 

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To expound more on the Soto situation, he will be a free agent here in three more seasons- his last year of control is 2024. He will be 26 and in the prime of his career, set up for what likely will be the richest deal in FA history.  His agent is Scott Boras, so you know he will be going to free agency regardless.  So it is a risky proposition to let Soto, one of the top young stars in MLB, walk for a compensation pick in return.  

The problem is that few teams will have the young talent to trade for Soto.  In addition to a top prospect or two, this deal also needs to include an infusion of MLB talent.  One team who could do that, the Rays, are out of the conversation totally. That leaves you with few teams with the talent and payroll to make it happen……..the Dodgers, Padres, Braves are about the only teams I can think of right now with the chops to make it happen……and I don’t think the Braves are an option due to it being their own division.  

Now if you keep Soto, how do you put a contender around him?  Starting next season: 

Max Scherzer: $15m annually from 2022-28 in deferred money

Stephen Strasburg: $24m annually until 2026, then $26m deferred from 2027-29

Patrick Corbin: $23/$24m from 2022-23, and $24 in 2024, with $5m deferred 2025-26

Brad Hand: $1.5m deferred from 2022-24

So that’s $16.5m the next three years going towards two pitchers who won’t pitch for the Nats during Soto’s last three seasons.  Strasburg gets paid $24m, and he is about to undergo thoracic outlet surgery, which is the baseball equivalent of a Lisfranc surgery.  Who knows what Strasburg will look like afterwards, and it is a possibility that he could be a sunk cost here.  Corbin is definitely overpaid.  So that’s $48m between Strasburg and Corbin, two guys in their mid 30’s who are on the decline.  So $64.5m for those four.  That is more than the payroll for four teams, and within $10m of the Rays.  They came into the season with a payroll of $170.4m.  

Let’s go a bit further- at the start of the season, every major outlet agreed that the Nationals had a poor farm system.  I pulled three random prospect rankings, and all three had the Nationals dead last.  Their draft was a mixed bag according to many experts this year.  The good thing is that the Nationals are active in the international market, and have been for some time.  Kieboom and Garcia will likely get an extended look now, as will Ruiz and Gray, but there is more to building a team than those four, and the Nationals do not have many reserves coming up through the minors.  

I just don’t see how you get a contender out of the Nationals over the next three years to justify letting Soto walk for a compensation pick in the 2026 draft.  If anyone wants to take a stab at being fantasy GM, be my guest.  

 

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4 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I’m being serious though. I’ll put it like this, my fandom is on the line with Soto. It might sound silly but I won’t sit here and watch the Lerners offer bad faith contracts and let every star position player not named Zimmerman leave. If Soto goes then I’m out. 

I get your opinion, and understand it. They had better rebuild this team around Soto, but damn I wanted Turner & Soto to be the building blocks for the team moving forward! 😩 

And they got crap back in return. It’s basically a salary dump for the Lerners.

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Also, just using the Machado deal as a barometer for either player on it’s own:  

The Dodgers traded Yusniel Diaz (top 50-75 prospect), Dean Kramer (top 10-ish organizational prospect), Rylan Bannon (top 30), Zach Pop and AAAA utility player for a few months of Manny Machado, who was top 9 in fWAR that year amongst positional players with 6.3.  

Turner is a 5-6 fWAR player right now in the prime of his career with 1.5 years of control left.  He easily nets the kind of deal listed above.  

Scherzer is a top pitcher in the game even at his advanced age.  He is a rental, and the Nationals are certainly extending the QO, so he’s worth a top 50-75 prospect for a team trying to win now.  

That comparison deal should have been good enough to land Turner or Scherzer on it’s own.  Add in both, and you are looking at needing Lux or Gonsolin added to the deal they received AT MINIMUM.  Ruiz and Gray are ranked 41 and 42  overall by MLB Pipeline, and Carrillo is the 17th ranked prospect in the Dodgers system, but he looks more like a reliever.  

This is not a good return for the biggest assets that the Nationals had.  

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6 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

@naptownskinsfan It’s a good thing Rizzo won the World Series two years ago bc right now he’s looking like the worst GM in the league w/ some of those awful contracts & w/ him giving away Turner & Scherzer for nothing.

Trust me, that World Series makes it worth it.  You won, and won with a team that was, by all intents and purposes, at the very end of their window and had stretched it to the max.  They essentially picked Corbin over Rendon by that point to try and win that year, and year after year traded prospects for rentals, especially in the bullpen.  

Blame the Lerner’s for the deferred money though.  

The decision for what to do with Soto is one that I do not envy.  It’s a franchise-altering one for sure, but the risk of losing Soto for essentially nothing like we did with Machado is tough.  

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1 minute ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Trust me, that World Series makes it worth it.  You won, and won with a team that was, by all intents and purposes, at the very end of their window and had stretched it to the max.  They essentially picked Corbin over Rendon by that point to try and win that year, and year after year traded prospects for rentals, especially in the bullpen.  

Blame the Lerner’s for the deferred money though.  

The decision for what to do with Soto is one that I do not envy.  It’s a franchise-altering one for sure, but the risk of losing Soto for essentially nothing like we did with Machado is tough.  

For sure. I 100% agree.

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9 hours ago, turtle28 said:

@naptownskinsfan It’s a good thing Rizzo won the World Series two years ago bc right now he’s looking like the worst GM in the league w/ some of those awful contracts & w/ him giving away Turner & Scherzer for nothing.

Look I didn’t think he was going to trade Turner, but giving away for nothing? Not sure I buy that either. A #2/3, #4/5, maybe elite catcher, and an outfielder that’s probably a starter for us. 
 

I never wanted to trade Turner. He was my favorite Nat. It was so dumb. 

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It's all about the contract and what's left. Trea was the star of that trade. Read this morning that the Lerner's were "down" because they never experienced the revenue jump a World Series brings due to C19. I really don't know what to think of the Lerners at this point. They seem to be 1) really rich; and 2) financially frugal. Is frugal the right word? Cheap? They've spent on guys before. They love deferred money. I'm not sure how to characterize them.

Here's the deal though. We won a World Series... and we simply weren't positioned to win another one with this current roster. Thank you, Nats, for not just sitting on your hands. 

The return. Here's some quotes from a Keith Law Atlantic article. I bolded their ages because you'll quickly see that the Nats got younger... and these ages line up well with a certain Nats' superstar. Note that Keith Law thought the Nats did well in the trade, although time will tell as it always does with prospects. Ruiz's AAA stats this year, and low strikeout rate, should get you excited. And I'm good with a 22 year old reliever that touches 100. 

Josiah Gray, RHP - He’s at 93-96 mph on his four-seamer with good run on the pitch along with a plus curveball, a fringy slider and an above-average changeup that he has thrown only three times so far in the majors but which is 88-90 with good fade and has allowed him to have no real platoon split anywhere in pro ball. Major-league hitters seemed to square up his fastball more than expected, though that’s in a tiny sample. He’s a converted shortstop who only started pitching exclusively in 2018, so he’s still less experienced than most 23-year-olds, and there may be more development ahead of him. He should go right into the Nationals’ rotation and has No. 2 starter upside.

Keibert Ruiz, C - He has been having a huge season in Triple A, hitting .311/.381/.631 for Oklahoma City with almost as many walks as strikeouts, finally showing the raw power he’s always had in games this year — 16 homers in 52 games so far. He’s always been a great contact hitter, and now with the power coming on, he could be a star if he stays behind the plate; his bat would make him one of the best offensive catchers in the game. He is not great defensively but playable there despite a fringy arm. It has concerned other teams for a while that the Dodgers were so willing to part with Ruiz, but the fact he’s produced like this in Triple A as a 22-year-old should alleviate some of that. 

Gerardo Carrillo, RHP - Carrillo, 22 years old, is incredibly fun to watch — he’s 5-foot-10 and can reach 100 mph with a power curveball around 80 mph, but he’s a max-effort guy and too wild to project as a starter, with 29 walks and 16 hit batters in 59.1 innings in Double A this year, right in line with his stats from before the lockdown.

Donovan Casey, OF - a 25-year-old outfielder who is hitting .296/.362/.462 in Double A with a 31 percent strikeout rate; he’s adequate in center field but not more than that and has the arm for right — but I don’t think there’s enough hit tool here to make him a regular in center, or enough power to make him one in right field.

Edited by Skinsin2013
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