My 53 Man Roster Projection and Analysis (Offense)

[CWood21]

So...you might have seen my 53 man projection earlier, and I wanted to do a bit more in-depth review of the roster.

Quarterbacks

Let me start off by saying, that there are two clear roster locks in Aaron Rodgers and Brett Hundley.  I don't think anyone would disagree with that.  Barring a team offering a big package the Packers way, Brett Hundley starts the year as the backup QB to Aaron Rodgers.  But beyond that, it's a bigger question.  Do the Packers keep a 3rd QB on the active roster, or do they keep that 3rd QB on the PS?  I think the best way to answer that question is look at the previous years camp cuts to project.

2016: Aaron Rodgers / Brett Hundley / Joe Callahan
2015: Aaron Rodgers / Scott Tolzien / Brett Hundley
2014: Aaron Rodgers / Matt Flynn / Scott Tolzien
2013: Aaron Rodgers / B.J. Coleman

With the exception of the 2013 season, the Packers have carried 3 QBs on the active roster.  The Packers released Joe Callahan on October 13th last year, roughly a month after the season.

Projected QB Depth Chart: Aaron Rodgers / Brett Hundley / Taysom Hill [3/3]

 

Running Backs

For the record, I'm lumping fullbacks in here as well.  Again, let's take a look at previous years.

2016: Eddie Lacy / James Starks / Aaron Ripkowski / Brandon Burks
2015: Eddie Lacy / James Starks / John Kuhn / Aaron Ripkowski / Alonzo Harris
2014: Eddie Lacy / James Starks / DaJuan Harris / John Kuhn

With the exception of 2015, they've usually carried four backs.  So I'm gonna assume that unless something drastic happens, that four backs is probably the "magic number" they're looking at.  You can pretty much lock in Ty Montgomery as a mortal lock to make the 53 man roster as they're not going to cut the incumbent starting RB.  Based on the reports out of camp about Jamaal Williams having the best pass protection out of the rookies gives him the leg up as the backup RB.  The fact that the only time the Packers have carried two natural FBs was in 2015, when they drafted Aaron Ripkowski, and that year they only carried 3 TEs.  I probably could have lumped FB in with the TEs.  That last RB spot likely comes down to Aaron Jones and Davante Mays.  Right now, I'd give Aaron Jones the slight lean based on the fact that he had the best night against the Broncos.  I wouldn't be surprised if the loser ended up on the PS.  I know some think that Joe Kerridge might make the roster, but if he makes the roster it's going to be as a ST player.

Projected RB Depth Chart: Ty Montgomery / Jamaal Williams / Aaron Jones / Aaron Ripkowski [4/7]

 

Wide Receivers

You could make an argument that this is the most talented group of receivers that Ted Thompson has accumulated during his tenure as GM, and you probably wouldn't find anyone who'd argue too hard with you.

2016: Jordy Nelson / Randall Cobb / Davante Adams / Jeff Janis / Ty Montgomery / Jared Abberderis / Trevor Davis
2015: Randall Cobb / Davante Adams / Ty Montgomery / Jeff Janis / Myles White (Jordy Nelson - IR)
2014: Jordy Nelson / Randall Cobb / Jarrett Boykin / Davante Adams / Jeff Janis

With the exception of 2016, the Packers have historically carried 5 WRs.  But that 2016 season indicates that they're willing to carry more WR if they feel that they're the most talented 53 players.  And I think there's little doubt that they're part of the top 53.  You can include Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams as mortal locks to make the 53 man roster barring something surprising happening.  Fortunately, the Packers can put Geronimo Allison on the suspended list, and that alleviates one spot.  At most, you can carry another 4 WRs but realistically you're probably looking at 3 WR unless you can justify keeping an extra WR for ST, something both Trevor Davis and Jeff Janis provide.  That being said, they probably have the inside track for the WR spots.  That likely means that DeAngelo Yancey and Malachi Dupre are likely competing for that last roster spot, unless the Packers opt to carry 7 WR again.  And even then, that likely means one gets released when Geronimo Allison comes off the suspended list.  They both were TT draft picks, which means they have more tying them to the roster than someone signed like Max McCaffrey.  Max has been a good story, but ultimately the lack of emotional ties to the roster probably leaves him on the outside looking in.

Projected WR Depth Chart: Jordy Nelson / Randall Cobb / Davante Adams / Jeff Janis / Trevor Davis / DeAngelo Yancey / Malachi Dupre [7/14]

 

Tight Ends

2016: Jared Cook / Richard Rodgers / Justin Perillo 
2015: Richard Rodgers / Andrew Quarless / Kennard Backman
2014: Andrew Quarless / Brandon Bostick / Richard Rodgers / Ryan Taylor

The Packers went out this offseason and spent big upgrading their TE position, signing both Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks.  Needless to say, I think it's safe to say that both would be surprising releases all things considered.  That mean that the last roster spot likely goes to Richard Rodgers, unless the Packers opt to carry an extra FB.  I suppose there is the possibility they could always go with two TEs, but I think that's highly unlikely.

Projected TE Depth Chart: Martellus Bennett / Lance Kendricks / Richard Rodgers [3/17]

 

Offensive Line

2016: T.J Lang / Bryan Bulaga / JC Tretter / David Bakhtiari / Jason Spriggs / Lane Taylor / Don Barclay / Kyle Murphy (Corey Linsley - PUP)
2015: David Bakhtiari / Josh Sitton / Corey Linsley / T.J. Lang / Bryan Bulaga / Don Barclay / JC Tretter / Lane Taylor / Josh Walker
2014: David Bakhtiari / Bryan Bulaga / Josh Sitton / T.J. Lang / Corey Linsley / JC Tretter / Derek Sherrod / Lane Taylor

With the exception of 2015, they've always carried 8 OL and in 2015 they probably liked Josh Walker enough not to want to expose him to waivers.  And given that they're likely only suiting up 7 OL on any given game day, it's probably a fair bet that only 8 OL make the active 53 man roster.  You can include the mortal locks with the starters in David Bakhtiari, Lane Taylor, Corey Linsley, and Jahri Evans, and Bryan Bulaga.  Despite a lackluster preseason, Jason Spriggs is likely still making a roster given the fact that he was a former 2nd round pick that they traded up to draft for.  Don Barclay's positional versatility probably gives him a leg up on the rest of the OL group.  After that, the group gets muddled.  Right now, I'd lean towards Kofi Amichia given the fact that he was a draft pick of Ted's.

Projected OL Depth Chart: David Bakhtiari / Lane Taylor / Corey Linsley / Jahri Evans / Bryan Bulaga / Jason Spriggs / Don Barclay / Kyle Murphy [8/25]

 

I'll look into the defense and special teams later.  Anything you guys agree or disagree with?

[Gopackgonerd]

Gotta think Murphy makes it over Amichia, maybe Barclay goes on PUP, and Amichia then makes it.

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

Gotta think Murphy makes it over Amichia, maybe Barclay goes on PUP, and Amichia then makes it.

Good catch, and brain fart on my part.  Right now, Kyle Murphy probably has the edge.  Kofi Amichia probably ends up on the PS, although the Bulaga injury opens up the door for him.  Is Barclay PUP eligible?

[Gopackgonerd]

Just now, CWood21 said:

Good catch, and brain fart on my part.  Right now, Kyle Murphy probably has the edge.  Kofi Amichia probably ends up on the PS, although the Bulaga injury opens up the door for him.  Is Barclay PUP eligible?

Not sure if he is eligible, I just thought you could place anyone on it before the reg. season. Also wonder if they might go out and snag a OLineman after the cutdowns.

[ThatJerkDave]

I'm pretty sure that once you practice in the preseason, you are no longer PUP eligible. 

 

I haven't seen the practice sessions, or really paid much attention to them so far, but I see no reason to keep 7 WRs.  Yancey and Dupree have done less than McCaffrey and Clark in the games.  We can probably return 2 of those 4 to the PS.  I'd keep the top 5 WRs, Kerridge, and one of the OLmen or Christian Ringo.  When Geronimo is off suspension, drop the 3rd QB.  That gives you 6 WR on the 53.  6 might even be too many.  They aren't likely to bring back the 5 wide, and if they use that formation, it probably includes Montgomery and Bennett as "WRs."

When keeping 7 WR on the roster, remember that we have 5 NFL level safeties this season that deserve the roster spot.

[pollino14]

I don't see 7 WRs being kept or 3 QBs being kept this year. 

 

 

[squire12]

5 hours ago, DavidatMIZZOU said:

I'm pretty sure that once you practice in the preseason, you are no longer PUP eligible. 

 

I haven't seen the practice sessions, or really paid much attention to them so far, but I see no reason to keep 7 WRs.  Yancey and Dupree have done less than McCaffrey and Clark in the games.  We can probably return 2 of those 4 to the PS.  I'd keep the top 5 WRs, Kerridge, and one of the OLmen or Christian Ringo.  When Geronimo is off suspension, drop the 3rd QB.  That gives you 6 WR on the 53.  6 might even be too many.  They aren't likely to bring back the 5 wide, and if they use that formation, it probably includes Montgomery and Bennett as "WRs."

When keeping 7 WR on the roster, remember that we have 5 NFL level safeties this season that deserve the roster spot.

Agree.  5 WR, maybe 6.  Roster spot better used elsewhere.  The RB group lacks a proven player to go with just 4.  Think 5 makes it there.

[PackyAttacky]

If Barlcay and Bulaga are dinged up you figure that they keep more depth on the oline, probably another interior guy.

[Argus]

So Ripkowski isn't making the team?

[Packer_ESP]

You talked about FBs but didn't include Rip on your list.

Also I think we keep both Murphy and Amichia, going with 9 OL again.

Clark is worth mentioning in the WR list too, though I agree it's unlikely any of the UDFA WRs make the final 53. They'll go on the PS if they're not snatched.

[Packerraymond]

Serious question, does Taysom Hill stay active on gameday and play ST? You've got a 6'2 220 27 year old rookie that runs a 4.4. If he was 22, I'd say hell no, but he'll never be a starter in this league at QB. Might as well teach him to tackle and you have an emergency QB and ST demon on your hands.

[Joe]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Serious question, does Taysom Hill stay active on gameday and play ST? You've got a 6'2 220 27 year old rookie that runs a 4.4. If he was 22, I'd say hell no, but he'll never be a starter in this league at QB. Might as well teach him to tackle and you have an emergency QB and ST demon on your hands.

Agreed. He could be a slash type player, especially given his vision when running with the ball. I'd keep 7 receivers as well because Janis will be your ST gunner. I don't see Dupre making the final 53. They'll keep McCaffrey IMHO and then shift him to the practice squad once Allison is back. Dupre will be on the practice squad as well.

[jleisher]

I can't see both Dupre and Yancy making the final 53 over McCaffrey.  They talk about his sure hands and route running, McCaffrey has to take one of those two spots.

[CWood21]

14 hours ago, Joe said:

Agreed. He could be a slash type player, especially given his vision when running with the ball. I'd keep 7 receivers as well because Janis will be your ST gunner. I don't see Dupre making the final 53. They'll keep McCaffrey IMHO and then shift him to the practice squad once Allison is back. Dupre will be on the practice squad as well.

I'm not really sure McCaffrey makes the roster.  He doesn't have the draft pick tied to him that will keep Ted invested in him, and IMO he's not clearly one of our top WR.

[Gopackgonerd]

There's too much talent at WR for us lol. Allison, Janis, and Davis are all locks imo. Comes down to McCaffrey, Yancey and Dupre for the 7th WR.  It really doesn't matter who makes the 53 if we keep a 7th, they won't see the field in the regular season barring injuries, except maybe special teams.