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Very Interesting Metrics On Jordan Howard


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Jordan Howard’s 2018 Struggles Get “The Data Treatment”

5fb7dabcc9ddb6eb415d87bdfbe6736d?s=16&d= Johnathan Wood | March 1st, 2019

https://dabearsblog.com/2019/jordan-howards-2018-struggles-get-the-data-treatment#more-22078

 

It’s no secret that Jordan Howard struggled in 2018. DBB’s Andrew Dannehy detailed those struggles in a column a few weeks ago. Despite getting 250 carries – 6th most in the NFL – he didn’t reach 1,000 yards thanks to a dismal 3.7 yards/attempt, the 4th worst average of the 23 running backs who averaged at least 10 carries per game.

And lest we be tempted to blame this on Chicago’s offensive line, it’s worth pointing out that the Bears were 5th in total yards gained before contact and 9th in yards/carry before contact, per ESPN’s NFL Matchup. Tarik Cohen, who ran behind the same offensive line, averaged close to a full yard per carry more than Howard (4.5 vs. 3.7).

So I don’t think it’s fair to blame Chicago’s offensive line for Howard’s struggles. It is worth noting that Howard averaged only 1 yard before contact this year, one of the lowest marks in the league (PFF). Tarik Cohen averaged 2.3 yards before contact, one of the better marks in the NFL. So I think that stat says more about Howard (and how he was used) than the offensive line.

To figure out where it all went wrong for Howard, I took a closer look at a few different advanced metrics used for running backs. The first is success rate, which can be thought of as a measure of staying ahead of the chains. A run is successful if it:

  • picks up 40% of the yardage needed on 1st down
  • picks up 60% of the yardage needed on 2nd down
  • picks up 100% of the yardage needed on 3rd or 4th down

This is a useful metric because it accounts for down and distance situations. A 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 hurts your rushing average but is actually a good play. And when we look at success rates, Howard actually fared quite well. Sharp Football tracks success rates for all running backs to different areas of the field, so he can compare how well one runner did compared to the league average. Howard’s chart is shown below.


howard-success-rates.jpg?resize=583%2C29


Here we can see that Howard was successful at least as often as the league average to every zone but outside right. Overall, he had a successful run 2.9% more often than league average when you account for where he ran the ball. Based on this, you might think Howard had a good season. In fact, his success rate is better than he posted in 2017 (-2.3%) or even his outstanding rookie campaign (+2.2%). So what gives with Howard’s bad yards per carry?

The problem with success rate as a metric is that it’s binary. Every play is either a success or failure, and all successes (or failures) count the same. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is just as good as a 60 yarder in that both are a success, but that doesn’t reflect the reality of how valuable each run would be to an offense. So Howard had a high success rate because he did a solid job of picking up yardage to stay ahead of the chains, but his low yards per carry suggests that he did not break off enough big runs.

Advanced statistics back that up, as we can see in this tweet from JJ Zachariason charting what percentage of a running back’s carries went for various distances:

Dw9k--CVsAAMKFa.jpg

 

Of the 46 running backs with at least 100 carries, Howard ranked 41st in the rate of runs that gained at least 10 yards, and 28th in runs gaining at least 20.

Tarik Cohen finished with 99 carries, 1 short of being included here, but he would have ranked 16th in the rate of 10+ yard gains and 1st in 20+ yarders.

This continues a trend through three seasons for Howard. As a rookie, 17% of his runs went for 10+ yards. In 2017, that dropped to 11% (around average), and in 2018 around 7%.

Howard did seem to experience a bit of a late-season renaissance, possibly driven by getting more zone runs, but even then his explosive play percentage remained low. Five of his 72 carries in the last 4 games went for 10 or more yards, a rate of 6.9%, which was actually slightly worse than his season-long average of 7.3% and would have ranked 41st of 46 qualified backs. Two of those 72 carries went for 20+ yards, a rate of 2.8%, which would have ranked 25th of 46 running backs and been just below the average of those backs at 2.9%.

After an explosive rookie season, Howard has declined over the last two years, to the point where he is now one of the worst running backs in the league at making big plays. He’ll still pick up decent yardage at a solid clip, but doesn’t get big plays on the ground and isn’t involved in the passing game. We have a description for runners like that: short yardage specialists. Jordan Howard simply isn’t a lead running back anymore.

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While I believe that while RB metrics often fail to tell the whole story they can be very useful when seen from distance and over a longer period of time so trends can be seen and comparisons and contrasts made that take into account other factors such as scheme changes and OL blocking proficiency.

Now that we've taken a look at our OL metrics we can use those in conjunction with Howard's to draw some conclusions.

Gotta be honest brothers.  This opened my eyes a bit wider.  Howard's decline may be subtle and some may be attributable to a poor overall team performance in 2017 and the loss of Kyle Long and blocking scheme changes in 2018 but overall Howard's effectiveness as a lead back is declining.

With a return to a zone scheme the majority of the time and a full 16 game season from Kyle Long and the rest of the OL maybe we might see an uptick in these metrics and his stats but clearly we seem to have gotten the best out of Jordan Howard that we're likely to get and we should move on if possible.

This might also change my view on his trade value which may not be any higher than a 5th or 6th round pick.  If he's not tradeable all of this would seem to place even more weight on finding him a running mate besides Cohen who can really be no more than a complimentary Joker or Gadget RB and receiver.

Howard could still offer value to us this year provided we scheme properly for him because he knows the offense but there's little doubt he'll be playing elsewhere in 2020.  We aren't likely to bring him back.

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On 3/1/2019 at 8:49 AM, soulman said:

Gotta be honest brothers.  This opened my eyes a bit wider.  Howard's decline may be subtle and some may be attributable to a poor overall team performance in 2017 and the loss of Kyle Long and blocking scheme changes in 2018 but overall Howard's effectiveness as a lead back is declining.

Can we be sure that's a permanent sort of decline, though? It would actually be weirder if it was...

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37 minutes ago, HuskieBear said:

need to open your eyes more, cuzzo

It’s not a given at all that he’s gone, but I think it’s a very real possibility if we sign a guy and draft another guy, plus Cohen. It’s hardly far fetched that a cash strapped team wouldn’t want to pay their #3/4 RB $2M. Howard isn’t likely to play on coverage teams where a mid-round draft pick very well might so in that scenario he’s at least a reasonable possibility to be a game day inactive. If they envision that he’s not going to even dress most weeks then keeping him at that price is a complete waste of funds. 

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1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

Can we be sure that's a permanent sort of decline, though? It would actually be weirder if it was...

Not a bad question and one we may get an answer to this year.

AZ BearsFan posted other stats that also indicate Howard's performance has declined since his rookie year but maybe a more appropriate question is whether or not his rookie season where he was on almost even par with "Zeke" Elliott was an outlier and not 2018.

In 2016 Howard rushed for just over 1300 yards, averaged 5.2 ypc, scored 6 tds rushing, caught 29 passes for 298 yds (10.3 ypc) and scored another TD, and only started 13 of 16 games.

He had a long run of 69 yards and had 10 runs of 20 yards or more including another for 57 yards.  He hasn't even come close to those numbers since under Fox or Nagy.  So if there's a decline it actually began to happen in 2017 not 2018 when he had half as many 20 yard plus runs and his longest run was 53 and two others went for 50.  In 2018 again he had only 5 runs of 20 or more yards and just one longer run of 42 yards.

So he's continued to decline in his stats but not as badly as he did between 2016 and 2017 and some of that might be attributable to a shift in our blocking scheme for 2/3 of the season and also missing Kyle Long.  Witzmann was our worst run blocking OG.  I believe he's still capable of averaging over 4.0 ypc and being a scoring threat on or nearer the goaline where he's been very productive.  He's not a total bum.

Clearly he's not making the same impact as he did as a rookie.  In some ways he's still been as effective (scoring/short yardage) as ever and still able to put up 100 yard games occasionally.  I think it's safe to say he's not in anyway a "special back" but for a 5th round pick he's been a fair bargain and IMHO if we keep him around for another year he won't be a total waste even if we do draft a niftier more versatile back.

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31 minutes ago, soulman said:

So he's continued to decline in his stats but not as badly as he did between 2016 and 2017 and some of that might be attributable to a shift in our blocking scheme for 2/3 of the season and also missing Kyle Long.  Witzmann was our worst run blocking OG.  I believe he's still capable of averaging over 4.0 ypc and being a scoring threat on or nearer the goaline where he's been very productive.  He's not a total bum.

Clearly he's not making the same impact as he did as a rookie.  In some ways he's still been as effective (scoring/short yardage) as ever and still able to put up 100 yard games occasionally.  I think it's safe to say he's not in anyway a "special back" but for a 5th round pick he's been a fair bargain and IMHO if we keep him around for another year he won't be a total waste even if we do draft a niftier more versatile back.

It's safe to say we disagree somewhat as to Howard's ability, and gauge his situation (overall) a little differently...but, I gotta point out that the Bears new offense is more complicated than what Howard has been used to playing in. If he sticks around, I expect his numbers will improve. 

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Sometimes big backs with limited speed decline more quickly. As they take a beating and the speed naturally declines they just don’t have it to lose.

Howard carried the ball 647 times in his college career too. He came into the NFL having taken a lot of hits.

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High mileage and limited speed are both likely to be reasons we're seeing some decline with a loss of speed and explosiveness the probable culprits behind fewer long runs and and the decline in his ypc.

He's in a contract year and if we stick with a zone scheme we may see a slight uptick in his performance but it's not likely we'll see the same Jordan Howard we saw in his rookie year.

If he can drop 8-10lbs he may get some of his burst and his speed back but will that impact him in other ways?  Maybe the bottom line here is what does Matt Nagy want from him.

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

Maybe the bottom line here is what does Matt Nagy want from him.

Nagy was hired last January, so it’s not like it wasn’t known to Howard what Nagy wanted from him or the position 6 months before training camp. He just isn’t it. He’s not quick or versatile now and he never has been. That doesn’t just show up at 23 after probably 10 years or more being what he is and being good enough at it to get to first major college athletics and then the NFL. He’s a quintessential power back cut in the 1980s mold. I don’t hold that against him or anything - I wish he was a better fit and from all accounts he’s a great kid who’s really well liked by his teammates - I’m just calling it what it is. Right after the Nagy hire all of the talk was that Howard seemed to be a misfit for Nagy and it played out exactly as such. Round-peg-square-hole time was 2018, and frankly for Howard’s long term NFL career even he’d probably say that him playing somewhere other than Chicago in 2019 is for the best for everyone.

This isn’t a trading away Greg Olsen so you can sign Manumaleuna situation either. Olsen was a scheme-transcendent talent and their best receiver. Howard arguably isn’t even their best running back. I appreciate everything he’s done over the past 3 years, but I think people are letting sentimentality cloud their logic in his case. 

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22 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s not a given at all that he’s gone, but I think it’s a very real possibility if we sign a guy and draft another guy, plus Cohen. It’s hardly far fetched that a cash strapped team wouldn’t want to pay their #3/4 RB $2M. Howard isn’t likely to play on coverage teams where a mid-round draft pick very well might so in that scenario he’s at least a reasonable possibility to be a game day inactive. If they envision that he’s not going to even dress most weeks then keeping him at that price is a complete waste of funds. 

exactly my point. There is definitely a scenario that he's not on the team, but saying there is no scenario that he is on the team would be foolish.

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Strong rumors floating around that Pace was offered a 3rd round pick of Howard but declined due to not wanting to create a hole on our roster.

If a 4th round pick is dangled in the draft, or the opportunity to move up, I think Howard may be a goner.

 

Love the kid for what he did for us, but he looked a step slower to me this season and it was glaring. Not to say he can't rebound, but I think we need someone with more juice and versatility.

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17 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Nagy was hired last January, so it’s not like it wasn’t known to Howard what Nagy wanted from him or the position 6 months before training camp. He just isn’t it. He’s not quick or versatile now and he never has been. That doesn’t just show up at 23 after probably 10 years or more being what he is and being good enough at it to get to first major college athletics and then the NFL. He’s a quintessential power back cut in the 1980s mold. I don’t hold that against him or anything - I wish he was a better fit and from all accounts he’s a great kid who’s really well liked by his teammates - I’m just calling it what it is. Right after the Nagy hire all of the talk was that Howard seemed to be a misfit for Nagy and it played out exactly as such. Round-peg-square-hole time was 2018, and frankly for Howard’s long term NFL career even he’d probably say that him playing somewhere other than Chicago in 2019 is for the best for everyone.

This isn’t a trading away Greg Olsen so you can sign Manumaleuna situation either. Olsen was a scheme-transcendent talent and their best receiver. Howard arguably isn’t even their best running back. I appreciate everything he’s done over the past 3 years, but I think people are letting sentimentality cloud their logic in his case. 

I'm not referring to the past.  What I meant was what does Nagy want from him this year if he's not traded.  Does he plan to use him primarily as a short yardage back and a "grinder" in which case he may want him playing at 230lbs or would he prefer him to drop some wait in hopes of gaining back some of his previous explosiveness and hopefully become more effective as a pass receiver?  Roles can change over time.

FWIW the Trib's David Haugh states that Pace turned down an offer of 3rd round pick for Howard last fall.  So even with an obvious decline in Howard's production at least one team was high enough on him to pony up a 3rd yet Pace was still convinced he was valuable enough to keep at that time. 

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/Article/Jordan-Howard-trade-offer-2018-129706649/?

Chicago Bears running back Jordan Howard continues to be a name bandied about in the rumor mill at the start of the month of March. He was the subject of trade rumors last offseason and now there is more evidence suggesting the team turned down a trade offer last year. David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune pointed out the Bears had a chance to move on from Howard last season but opted to hang onto him.

"Just before the NFL trade deadline last October, a team in the playoff hunt offered the Bears a third-round draft pick for running back Jordan Howard," Haugh recently wrote. "Bears general manager Ryan Pace declined, one of several smart decisions Pace made for the eventual NFC North champions."

Haugh went on to say the Bears held onto Howard because they believed he would help them on their run toward the playoffs in 2018. The ups and downs of last season with Howard are well known. He went from someone who was a focal point on offense for his first two years in the league before having to share the workload with others around him.

AZ you keep trying to sell us on moving on from Howard and yet no one is resisting that idea.  Least of all me.  I've agreed with most of what you've posted.  But there is also a chance Howard will return and I've tried to address that possibility too.

Being as tight on cap as we are, and with a stated desire from Pace to keep Callahan and Amos if possible, I'm thinking that if we add a RB in FA it will need to be one who will come cheap and share snaps with Howard.  I also believe Pace will draft a RB but how early we don't know.

Unless he moves up for a specific guy (possible) drafting late in round three could mean the one or two RBs he sees has having value at that spot are already taken and he opts to wait 'til another he values in a later round is there when he picks.

Pace moves around all the time and become harder to target so I've kinda given up trying to predict who he might take and when.  I've seen mocks of him taking a RB in round three or four and another today where he waits 'til seven and takes Bruce Anderson.

If Howard can't be traded for a pick high enough to allow Pace to replace him he may opt to surround him with some competition who are more versatile and a better fit.  We just don't know yet what he may do.  Just what he may like to do.

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