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Royal_VT

Trading the 10th Pick

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Posted (edited)

Decided to take a look at the last few drafts, dating back to 2011, and see what the price of moving up or down will net us.

Trading Up

The argument to move up is simple - we believe that there is a franchise QB available and would like to secure him. Likely target pick 3 with the Jets?

2012 - Washington moved from 6 to 2, giving up their 2nd rounder as well as 2 future 1sts. (This was for RGIII obviously, not sure the stakes are as high here)

2013 - Miami trades up from pick 12 to pick 3, costing them their 2nd rounder as well. (This package seems very light, move was for Dion Jordan so no QB was involved which raises the price)

2014 - Buffalo moves up from pick 9 to pick 4, costing them an additional 4th rounder and their 2015 1st. (This package feels right - 2019 1st, 2019 4th, 2020 1st)

2016 - Rams move up from 15 to 1, costs them 2.43, 2.45, 3.76, and a 2017 1st and 3rd. (Crazy steep price)

2016 - Philly moves up from 8 to 2, costs them 3.77, 4.100 and 2017 1st and  2018 2nd. (Seems close to what we would pay)

2018 - Jets trade up from 6 to 3, costs 2.37, 2.49 and 2019 2nd. Our jump is quite a bit bigger than this so not sure it is a comparison. 

2018 - Buffalo trades up from 12 to 7, costs them 2.53, 2.56. Again, our jump would be bigger than this, but these are the two most recent comps. 

Verdict - I am quite against trading up - prob cost us our 1st and 3rd, then our 2020 1st in exchange for Haskins or Lock? No thanks.

Trading Down

2011 - Washington trades back from 1.10, in exchange for 1.16 and 2.49 - I dig this

2012 - Seattle trades back from 1.12, in exchange for 1.15, 4.114, 6.172 - WEAK

2013 - Buffalo trades back from 1.8 (+ 3.71) in exchange for 1.16, 2.46, 3.78, 7.222 - I dig this

2014 - Arizona trades back from 1.20 in exchange for 1.27 and 3.91

2014 - Philly trades back from 1.22 in exchange for 1.26, 3.83 (these are later picks, but thought the return was significant for moving back 4-5 spots)

2016 - Cleveland trades back from 1.8 (+ 6.176) in exchange for 1.15, 3.76, and a 2017 2nd

2016 - Tampa trades back from 1.9 in exchange for 1.11 and 4.106

2017 - Buffalo trades back from 1.10 in exchange for 1.27, 3.91, and a 2018 1st - This was for Mahomes

2017 - Cleveland trades back from 1.12 in exchange for 1.25 and 2018 1st - Watson trade

2018 - Tampa trades back from 1.7 (+7.255) in exchange for 1.12, 2.53, 2.56 - Josh Allen trade

2018 - Oakland trades back from 1.10 in exchange for 1.15, 3.79, 5.152 - Josh Rosen trade

2018 - Green Bay trades back from 1.14 for 1.27, 5.147, and a 2020 1st.

Verdict - The biggest factor here is who is available at 10, and how the front office sees the value of the remaining players - if they have 10 players similarly graded then trading back makes sense, if one of their top guys (Chubb in 2018) is available then forget trading back, take your guy. 

Targets -

Packers (have picks 1.12 and 1.30, as well as 2 4th rounders) 1.10 <> 1.12, 4.114 ?

Texans (have picks 1.23, and two second rounders) 1.10 <> 1.23, 2.54, 2020 2nd?

Colts (have picks 1.26, 2.34, 2.58, a 3rd, and 2 4th) 1.10 <> 1.26, 2.58, 2020 1st? Not sure they would part with 2020 1st for a non QB - and not sure Denver would move back that far without securing an additional 1st.

Dolphins (have picks 1.13, 2.48, 3.78) 1.10 <> 1.13, 3.78?

Steelers (have picks 1.20, 2.52, 3.83) 1.10 <> 1.20, 2.52, 2020 2nd?

Redskins (have picks 1.15, 2.46, 3.76, 3.96) 1.10 <> 1.15, 2.46?

------------------------------------------

I understand that trading back is always a pipe dream, especially for us that obviously enjoy this draft stuff a little too much. But if the opportunity is there, I think trading back makes sense. I think we would take a CB if we traded back, and one of Baker, Williams, Murphy is likely to be there at 1.15 and possibly even 1.20. If we trade farther back, perhaps target one of the OLine? Moving back further than pick 20 would likely benefit us greatly in the 2020 draft where in this scenario we would be needing a QB in the worst way.

Would you like to see us trade our 10th pick? What kind of package do you think we could expect in return, and who would you be targeting at the position we land?

Edit: to fix some picks in the 2016 move up trades, thanks paul-mac

Edited by Royal_VT

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Your future picks on the Goff/Wentz trades are slightly off.

 

Rams gave up 2017 1st and 3rd, not 1st and 2nd

 

Eagles gave up a future 1st and 2nd but the 2nd was in 2018 not 2017

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I am 100% against trading up.

Trading up would be a disaster for this team.  We need draft capital so badly.  And if the Flacco experiment does not work, the cost of going from 10 to say 4 or 5 would be a 1st Round pick in 2020 draft and more.  NO way.

Now trading down, that I think makes a lot of sense. 

I would love to be able to go down in to the mid 20's where we could get a future 1st and an additional 3rd this year (2017 Buffalo Trade).  But in order to do that ONLY a QB needy team would play ball.  And there really are none.  Maybe the Raiders, who are now projecting to draft a QB like Lock in a couple Mocks (Which I think is BS).  But what are the odds of the Raiders playing ball with the Broncos?  Zero?  So as much as I would love to do this and draft a BPA at 1.24 that is there unexpectedly, it ain't gonna happen.  No one else in this range is even a possibility in need of a QB at this point.

Now here is the one that I love and it seems karmic in many ways.  The Redskins have 2 back up QB's on their roster, and it is CLEARLY their number 1 need as Alex Smith is in really bad shape.  And they were just rewarded FOUR compensatory picks.  That is 9 Picks total.  There is a team at 10 that could be the perfect partner.  It just makes a lot of sense and teams pay a premium for QBs...

So what about trading 1.10 for 1.15 and 2.46 with Washington?  There are a bunch of great players that could fill a huge need at 15.  Namely one of the top OT like Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard or Garrett Bra.  CB like Greedy Williams, Byron Murphy or Deandre Baker.  A DL could be there like Ed Oliver or Clelin Ferrell. an ILB like Devin Bush. And yes, even a Daniel Jones or Drew Lock could fall if Miami goes non QB.  1.15 gives us a LOT of options to follow the 2018 strategy of a black box pick.

We then own the top end of the 2nd Round.  Which for us is great because a lot of the value there is on the offensive line.  There are 3 to 4 guys that will fit. 

Would any one hate getting Andre Dillard at 1.15 and  at 2.41 Julian Love (CB) /Amani Oruwariye (CB)/ Trayvon Mullen (CB) / Chris Lindstrom (OG/C)   At 2.46 Rock Ya-Sin(CB) /  Cody Ford(OG/T).  Right now, if we did trade back, my mock would be:

1.15 Andre Dillard or Jonah Williams

2.41 Chris Lindstrom

2.46 Amani Oruwariye

How about that for addressing the ever failing Offensive Line woes, two picks in the top 50?

Nice work @Royal_VT .  This is good stuff and got me nerding out like crazy today.

 

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15 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

I am 100% against trading up.

Trading up would be a disaster for this team.  We need draft capital so badly.  And if the Flacco experiment does not work, the cost of going from 10 to say 4 or 5 would be a 1st Round pick in 2020 draft and more.  NO way.

Now trading down, that I think makes a lot of sense. 

I would love to be able to go down in to the mid 20's where we could get a future 1st and an additional 3rd this year (2017 Buffalo Trade).  But in order to do that ONLY a QB needy team would play ball.  And there really are none.  Maybe the Raiders, who are now projecting to draft a QB like Lock in a couple Mocks (Which I think is BS).  But what are the odds of the Raiders playing ball with the Broncos?  Zero?  So as much as I would love to do this and draft a BPA at 1.24 that is there unexpectedly, it ain't gonna happen.  No one else in this range is even a possibility in need of a QB at this point.

Now here is the one that I love and it seems karmic in many ways.  The Redskins have 2 back up QB's on their roster, and it is CLEARLY their number 1 need as Alex Smith is in really bad shape.  And they were just rewarded FOUR compensatory picks.  That is 9 Picks total.  There is a team at 10 that could be the perfect partner.  It just makes a lot of sense and teams pay a premium for QBs...

So what about trading 1.10 for 1.15 and 2.46 with Washington?  There are a bunch of great players that could fill a huge need at 15.  Namely one of the top OT like Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard or Garrett Bra.  CB like Greedy Williams, Byron Murphy or Deandre Baker.  A DL could be there like Ed Oliver or Clelin Ferrell. an ILB like Devin Bush. And yes, even a Daniel Jones or Drew Lock could fall if Miami goes non QB.  1.15 gives us a LOT of options to follow the 2018 strategy of a black box pick.

We then own the top end of the 2nd Round.  Which for us is great because a lot of the value there is on the offensive line.  There are 3 to 4 guys that will fit. 

Would any one hate getting Andre Dillard at 1.15 and  at 2.41 Julian Love (CB) /Amani Oruwariye (CB)/ Trayvon Mullen (CB) / Chris Lindstrom (OG/C)   At 2.46 Rock Ya-Sin(CB) /  Cody Ford(OG/T).  Right now, if we did trade back, my mock would be:

1.15 Andre Dillard or Jonah Williams

2.41 Chris Lindstrom

2.46 Amani Oruwariye

How about that for addressing the ever failing Offensive Line woes, two picks in the top 50?

Nice work @Royal_VT .  This is good stuff and got me nerding out like crazy today.

 

Wouldn't mind that, just keep away from Ford. He looks to me like this years OL bust. Marginal speed and quickness at best and in the day and age of smaller faster DT's he'll be a tremendous liability.

Any IOL over about 310 or OT above 320 is a concern IMO and most fail at the next level. There isn't a freak like Nelson in this draft. Just more Chance Warmacks.

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I want Murray, Lock, or White, personally. I don't see how we couldn't end up with 1 of those 3. Elway could be throwing smoke about Murray. He's literally bigger than Russell Wilson, measurement wise. 

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18 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Wouldn't mind that, just keep away from Ford. He looks to me like this years OL bust. Marginal speed and quickness at best and in the day and age of smaller faster DT's he'll be a tremendous liability.

Any IOL over about 310 or OT above 320 is a concern IMO and most fail at the next level. There isn't a freak like Nelson in this draft. Just more Chance Warmacks.

I agree! This years OL draft is like one of those novelty “meter tall” drinks full of skim milk. Yeah, sure it’s deep but there’s no cream at the top.

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1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I agree! This years OL draft is like one of those novelty “meter tall” drinks full of skim milk. Yeah, sure it’s deep but there’s no cream at the top.

Thats a priceless analogy! On the money too.

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After watching more of his play, Lock reminds me so much of Jay Cutler it's disgusting. 

Give me Jonah Williams to play LT and move Balles to RT. use our 2nd rounder on Michael Deiter. Our offense line needs be revamped.

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I really like the idea of moving back a few spots with a view to getting future picks. We never seem to be that team (like NE, for example) who always seem to move back between 4-5 places, still get a guy they really want whilst getting fantastic draft capital for next year.

I don't have the chart to hand, but what would the 2020 pick be for a team to move from say 18th overall to our 10th overall pick? Everything I've heard about this draft is that it's really strong between 15 and midway through the 2nd round. So, would we really lose much by moving back from 10 to 18? I guess it is entirely dependant on who is on the board when the 10th pick rolls around, but I just think it's a good strategy to move back a few picks for future picks (especially trading with teams that don't have a good QB, and can thus give us high picks in a future draft).

 

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A lot of mocks I'm seeing suggest trading down might be the move to make. #10 is a spot where it's likely you JUST miss on the Tier 1 elite prospects. Trade down a few picks and take a guy like Devin Bush and pick up an extra Day 2 pick in the process. 

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5 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

A lot of mocks I'm seeing suggest trading down might be the move to make. #10 is a spot where it's likely you JUST miss on the Tier 1 elite prospects. Trade down a few picks and take a guy like Devin Bush and pick up an extra Day 2 pick in the process. 

With the departure of Burfict I don’t think Bush gets past 11.

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I personally think Denver needs to sit tight at 10 and go BPA.  I’d be fine with White or Bush and think 1 of them will be there.  If not it wouldn’t hurt to have a deal in place (like last year) where Denver could move back.  However, I also wouldn’t be opposed to taking Andre Dillard at #10, he has everything you look for in a LT and kicking Bolles inside to OG (where I think he has all pro potential) and really solidifying the OL for next 2-3 years.  I also wouldn’t be opposed to Hockenson, though I think that’s a longer shot now that Denver brought Heuereman (or however the hell you spell it, I’ll never get it right) back.

IMO, Denver will have an all pro caliber player at #10 in this draft, I don’t really see a need to get cute with it.  Moving back to #15 and beyond is getting into the mix of guys where I don’t see much difference from #15 to #50.  I guess the argument could be made that we could get 2 of them instead of 1, but just my preference that I’d rather have the elite player.

Edited by germ-x

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On 3/18/2019 at 7:19 PM, germ-x said:

I personally think Denver needs to sit tight at 10 and go BPA.  I’d be fine with White or Bush and think 1 of them will be there.  If not it wouldn’t hurt to have a deal in place (like last year) where Denver could move back.  However, I also wouldn’t be opposed to taking Andre Dillard at #10, he has everything you look for in a LT and kicking Bolles inside to OG (where I think he has all pro potential) and really solidifying the OL for next 2-3 years.  I also wouldn’t be opposed to Hockenson, though I think that’s a longer shot now that Denver brought Heuereman (or however the hell you spell it, I’ll never get it right) back.

IMO, Denver will have an all pro caliber player at #10 in this draft, I don’t really see a need to get cute with it.  Moving back to #15 and beyond is getting into the mix of guys where I don’t see much difference from #15 to #50.  I guess the argument could be made that we could get 2 of them instead of 1, but just my preference that I’d rather have the elite player.

Agreed and this is exactly how I felt last year about Chubb. Just take the players with the highest upside.

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9 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Agreed and this is exactly how I felt last year about Chubb. Just take the players with the highest upside.

Would we say a year later that this was definitely the right decision? I am indifferent personally, but would this option be better than moving down 3 picks and selecting Roquan Smith? Or moving back further and taking Derwin James? (Let's ignore the QB stuff for once ...)

I just feel that the best teams don't get hooked on one guy (that isn't a QB); there are always a multitude of top quality players available in the 1st round of the draft, so why not get more picks and move back a bit?

It's not an exact science but I wouldn't mind giving it a go for a change.

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15 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Agreed and this is exactly how I felt last year about Chubb. Just take the players with the highest upside.

I had the same feeling about Nelson.

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