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What is Rosen worth and to who?

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I know @Thaiphoon is adamantly against it, but there's merit to a 2nd/Rosen for 15/conditional '20 pick swap.

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11 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I know @Thaiphoon is adamantly against it, but there's merit to a 2nd/Rosen for 15/conditional '20 pick swap.

Yeah, I mean if in hindsight, he ends up locking down the position for 10+ years then 15 and a 3rd/4th swap in '20 are cheap.

I just think we can get him for less than a 1st.

But like I said before. I also underestimated the level of stupidity of this Front Office under Dan Snyder. We traded up only a few spots to get RG3 and gave up 3 firsts and a 2nd

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

If I'm Belicheck, I'm going as high as a 1st. Overpay, sit Rosen for two/three years, unleash him when Brady gets to 45.

But by then you've now used up that rookie contract and have to make a decision to pick up the 5th year option on a guy who has rode your bench that entire time. And that 5th year option is the equivalent of the transition tag. So I doubt that the Pats make this move.

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1 hour ago, ET80 said:

If I'm Belicheck, I'm going as high as a 1st. Overpay, sit Rosen for two/three years, unleash him when Brady gets to 45.

Gee, let me see.  I am going to lose my best pass rusher, LT and some WR to FA. My best WR is 32 and is in his last year of contract. Gordon might not play until November and Gronk may retire. Yeah, spending a first and sitting him for 3 years is the way to go.  

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2 hours ago, Danger said:

No higher than a 2nd round pick. He was by far the most disappointing of the Rookie QBs due to supposedly being the most pro ready. David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald don't make for a lack of weapons.

David Johnson was pretty bad last year.  Some blame definitely falls on Mike McCoy for not using him properly before he was fired, but Johnson just didn’t look good at all last season and has been inconsistent at best since his breakout year in 2016

Also, Fitzgerald had the worst season of his career last season and is 36.  While I definitely agree Rosen isn’t fetching a 1st round pick at this point in time, it’s far from his fault.  I’m not sure how he was supposed to be successful last season in the situation they threw him into

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56 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

But by then you've now used up that rookie contract and have to make a decision to pick up the 5th year option on a guy who has rode your bench that entire time. And that 5th year option is the equivalent of the transition tag. So I doubt that the Pats make this move.

By then, there will be enough garbage time, practice time and preseason film for Belicheck to know exactly what he has in Rosen and what he can do with it.

Belicheck has coached Jacoby Brissett to a win in his first start, on a short week, against a Texans defense that was ranked top 5 back in 2016. He got a 10 win season out of Matt Cassell. 

It's safe to assume he can get a lot out of Josh Rosen, a talented QB in the middle of a dumpster fire of a situation out in the desert.

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54 minutes ago, patman said:

Gee, let me see.  I am going to lose my best pass rusher, LT and some WR to FA. My best WR is 32 and is in his last year of contract. Gordon might not play until November and Gronk may retire. Yeah, spending a first and sitting him for 3 years is the way to go.  

Didn't he lose similar things last season with Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler last season? Wasn't the WR unit even a bigger mess with Danny Amendola going to Miami, Brandin Cooks traded to LAR, Julian Edelman looking at a four game suspension and Gronk thinking of retirement? 

But, they managed to work around that, didn't they? Because Belicheck has something nobody else has, and that's Brady. Once Brady is gone, do you think he'll be able to backfill him like he did with Cooks, Solder, Amendola, Butler?

My guess is no, he's not. He's going to need a head start.

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I bet the Chargers. LA goes from one statue to another. Sitting behind Rivers could do him well.

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10 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Didn't he lose similar things last season with Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler last season? Wasn't the WR unit even a bigger mess with Danny Amendola going to Miami, Brandin Cooks traded to LAR, Julian Edelman looking at a four game suspension and Gronk thinking of retirement? 

But, they managed to work around that, didn't they? Because Belicheck has something nobody else has, and that's Brady. Once Brady is gone, do you think he'll be able to backfill him like he did with Cooks, Solder, Amendola, Butler?

My guess is no, he's not. He's going to need a head start.

A three year head start? And  Malcom Butler did not play well in '17 ( and it repeated in 18)  What does letting FA go have to do with spending a first. I  could see a trade for a qb to replace Hoyer but not at the cost of a first for a player to sit for three years.  And no, this year is much worse than last. Trey Flowers,  the LT, 2 of the DTs, and again all three of the WRs Are FA and you think trading a first away instead of getting one for Cooks is similar.  

Like I said, I would trade a 3rd for him. Maybe some team would give more, but that would be with an eye to getting something out of him, not to hold a clipboard. 

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2 minutes ago, patman said:

A three year head start?

You're replacing 18 years of high level experience, so I say give him all the head start he needs. 

3 minutes ago, patman said:

And  Malcom Butler did not play well in '17 ( and it repeated in 18)  What does letting FA go have to do with spending a first

Realistically, Sony Michel was the anomaly in Belicheck's tenure, the rookie who stepped in and produced immediately. The rest? Isaiah Wynn was IR last season, Dominic Easley was injured/cut, Malcolm Brown was largely unimpressive, Chandler Jones was traded mid contract...

That's my point overall - that first isn't really important in what Belicheck has created in New England. He's tossed them around at times, been stripped of them at times, but he still fields the team to beat every year. A large part of that is Brady, but it's also finding undervalued guys in every possible way. So, getting a top 10ish QB for pick #32 (a guy who would go ahead of Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins and Drew Lock had he stayed at UCLA, mind you) is the epitome of finding an "undervalued" guy to build up. 

16 minutes ago, patman said:

Trey Flowers,  the LT, 2 of the DTs, and again all three of the WRs Are FA and you think trading a first away instead of getting one for Cooks is similar.  

It's not as if you're replacing ALL of that with pick #32. Belicheck is going to have to do his usual song and dance with FA, trades and mid rounders to fill this out. 

I'll put it like this - this might be the last chance Belicheck can get his hands on a blue chip prospect at QB. Jake Fromm and Tua Tagaloavia won't be available unless you find a way to pick in the top 10, and nobody is trading away the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Unless you're thinking Belicheck can find another winning lottery ticket in the later rounds like he did with Brady, this might be the last real chance to get a blue chip guy at QB.

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51 minutes ago, ET80 said:

By then, there will be enough garbage time, practice time and preseason film for Belicheck to know exactly what he has in Rosen and what he can do with it.

Belicheck has coached Jacoby Brissett to a win in his first start, on a short week, against a Texans defense that was ranked top 5 back in 2016. He got a 10 win season out of Matt Cassell. 

It's safe to assume he can get a lot out of Josh Rosen, a talented QB in the middle of a dumpster fire of a situation out in the desert.

True. But Bill didn't spend a 1st rounder on them either. I see your point about him being able to get a lot out of Rosen. I'm not disputing that, at all. Just want to be clear on that.

My point is that IMHO 1st rounders should be players who come in and start right away (or have a reasonable chance to start right away). In this case, you're renting the guy to ride the bench and then will try to later determine if he can hack it or not? And even then you're making a best guess and having to pay the transition tag to do it? I'm not convinced that is the best use of draft capital.  

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1 minute ago, ET80 said:

You're replacing 18 years of high level experience, so I say give him all the head start he needs. 

Realistically, Sony Michel was the anomaly in Belicheck's tenure, the rookie who stepped in and produced immediately. The rest? Isaiah Wynn was IR last season, Dominic Easley was injured/cut, Malcolm Brown was largely unimpressive, Chandler Jones was traded mid contract...

That's my point overall - that first isn't really important in what Belicheck has created in New England. He's tossed them around at times, been stripped of them at times, but he still fields the team to beat every year. A large part of that is Brady, but it's also finding undervalued guys in every possible way. So, getting a top 10ish QB for pick #32 (a guy who would go ahead of Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins and Drew Lock had he stayed at UCLA, mind you) is the epitome of finding an "undervalued" guy to build up. 

It's not as if you're replacing ALL of that with pick #32. Belicheck is going to have to do his usual song and dance with FA, trades and mid rounders to fill this out. 

I'll put it like this - this might be the last chance Belicheck can get his hands on a blue chip prospect at QB. Jake Fromm and Tua Tagaloavia won't be available unless you find a way to pick in the top 10, and nobody is trading away the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence in 2021. Unless you're thinking Belicheck can find another winning lottery ticket in the later rounds like he did with Brady, this might be the last real chance to get a blue chip guy at QB.

I don't think Rosen is a blue chip prospect anymore.  And no, I don't think he will find someone in the 6th again, he will need to spend a first and I can see him doing that in two or three years, just not now.  Like all teams when Brady leaves the pats will suck for one or two years, while they clear out the old and bring in the new. . 

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Just now, Thaiphoon said:

True. But Bill didn't spend a 1st rounder on them either. I see your point about him being able to get a lot out of Rosen. I'm not disputing that, at all. Just want to be clear on that.

My point is that IMHO 1st rounders should be players who come in and start right away (or have a reasonable chance to start right away). In this case, you're renting the guy to ride the bench and then will try to later determine if he can hack it or not? And even then you're making a best guess and having to pay the transition tag to do it? I'm not convinced that is the best use of draft capital.  

See above - Belly has Sony Michel and Dont'a Hightower as his last 1st round picks that qualify as "impact" starters, and he's a Philly Special away from a threepeat.

This isn't for every franchise, mind you. Belicheck has such an advantage with Brady, he can afford to take a long term risk like this. If it doesn't work out, it's no different than life post-Brady. If it works, that's another potential decade of dominance.

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9 minutes ago, patman said:

I don't think Rosen is a blue chip prospect anymore

I do, actually. Calling the Steve Wilks led Cardinals a dumpster fire is an insult to dumpster fires all over the world. The OL was a disaster, your #1 WR is a 36 year old who was slow by WR standards when he was 28, your expensive RB was always hurt, and you had absolutely nothing at TE or on the WR depth chart past your slow 36 year old WR. The defense was good, but that offense was historically bad.

There is not a QB - living or dead - that could win more than five games on that team. Brady would probably get the closest, might get 5-11 out of that. 

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He has to go to an org that is immediately win now and lacks a QB which is exceptionally rare. I could argue the Ravens since their HC is decent and Jackson IS a bust (give me a break, the guy ran for more attempts than Vick did in a FULL season and was on pace for 300+. The Ravens pass offense dropped 100+ yards after subbing out a mediocre QB in Flacco), but outside of that? Maybe Denver (defense is still good), not really sure on New England since Brady/BB may retire together (team will go to **** then, especially with the Kraft issues)... maybe Jax (still top 5 D, Fournette), etc.

Rosen has MAJOR motivational and attitude issues. It appears he just doesn't care about football and is happy to cash in on his $20M+. I don't imagine him being that successful regardless of where he goes, but it's not going to happen with a team trying to pull themselves out of a hole. 

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