2019 Mock Offseason (Stage 1)

[e16bball]

This is my preferred approach to the first stage of the NFL offseason (Cuts, Restructures, Trades, Re-Signings). The primary goal is to free up cap space, which I think is important. There are a few high-end FAs that I'd like to see us take a run at. And more importantly, given that the Redskins are plainly not going to eat the Alex Smith contract this season, I want them to be in a position where they will have plenty of cap space to roll over into next offseason to give us flexibility to swallow the whole deal at once. 

 

Current Cap Space: $17.72M

 

Cuts:

Stacy McGee: The most obvious cut, it simply didn't work out here for Stacy. The young DL depth we've developed makes this an easy decision. Cap Savings = $2.28M.

Zach Brown: Lots of talent, just never really put it together as a complete LB. He's seemed disgruntled, and they can't afford to pay almost $9M to a limited ILB. Cap Savings = $5.75M.

Vernon Davis: He may retire, and if so, good for him. Very good career. But he doesn't produce enough anymore, in terms of blocking or receiving, to earn his large salary. Cap Savings = $4.97M.

Mason Foster: Total reset at the ILB position. May have been able to justify keeping him based on play alone, despite utter lack of speed, but his IG fiasco is the last straw. Cap Savings = $4.25M.

 

Restructures:

Brandon Scherff: 5 years, $62.5M, $32M in total guarantees. In essence, it's just an extension. The contract is based on the Kevin Zeitler deal that made him the 2nd-highest paid RG in football. Scherff would take over that position in the contract hierarchy with this deal. I don't see Zack Martin as a fair comp, as Martin was a 2x All-Pro who had never missed a game. Cap Savings = $4.03M.

 

Trades:

Josh Norman and a 2020 6th Round pick to Buffalo Bills for a 2019 4th Round pick: I don't think Norman has been bad here. But he also hasn't been great here. It seems to be time for both sides to go their separate ways. This deal would reunite him with Sean McDermott, who was Norman's DC in 2015 when he really broke out. The Bills have a lot of money to spend (but no FAs who ever want to take it), and they have a really good young CB in Tre'Davious White who would make for an excellent pairing with Norman. Cap Savings = $8.50M.

 

Updated Cap Space: $44.96M

 

Redskins FAs:

 

Preston Smith: Let Walk. I think one of the things that has hurt Smith the most here is that he's too similar to Ryan Kerrigan. He's a solid all-around OLB, but he's not an elite pass-rusher. We need an elite pass-rusher to pair with Kerrigan, so we need to look elsewhere and let him find a new home where his abilities fit a little better.

Jamison Crowder: Re-sign. 3 years, $24M, $15M in total guarantees. Crowder is an underrated player. Most probably would be surprised to know that in the 4 years he's been in the league, he ranks 29th in receptions and 30th in yards among WRs. In today's NFL, a player like him is a necessary safety blanket for a young QB and we should keep him in the fold. Using Albert Wilson's FA deal with Miami as a comp, we would be getting a bit of a bargain based on his down season. Cap Hit = $4.85M.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix: Let Walk (probably). I would keep the door open with him, and if the market dries up for safeties like it did last season, I'd be willing to bring him back on something like Honey Badger's one year prove-it deal ($7M). Otherwise, I'd call the trade a loss and move on.

Ty Nsekhe: Re-sign (probably). If Geron Christian had emerged as a viable swing OT this season, I'd let him walk. But we need someone who can play behind Williams and Moses. If some team wants to pay him to be a starter, I'd congratulate him and pocket the comp pick. If not, I'd bring him back on a deal like last season's RFA tender. Cap Hit = $3.00M.

Adrian Peterson: Let Walk (probably). This one will probably be unpopular, but I just can't imagine a scenario in which I'd ever think it was smart to give a multi-year, FA market value contract to a 34-year-old RB. He did an amazing job for us last season -- he just is amazing -- but RB is the easiest position on the field to fill with young talent. We have a young RB who we think is a potential future star, we've got a quality 3rd down back, and we've got a load of Day 3 picks. We should be staying young at RB. If he wants to come back on the cheap, okay. Otherwise -- thank him for the incredible 2018 season and see if you can snag a pick out him signing elsewhere.

Pernell McPhee: Re-sign. I thought he played okay for us, and I liked some of the hints of leadership I was seeing. Would expect him to be behind Anderson and a rookie on the depth chart, and he might get beaten out in camp by another youngster, but I'd keep him in the fold on another deal like last year's. Cap Hit = $1.40M.

Josh Johnson: Re-sign. I don't see the point in going out and spending much more money on a better veteran backup QB. Cap Hit = $1.00M. 

Shaun Lauvao: Let Walk, It's time.

Jonathan Cooper, Arie Kouandjio, Luke Bowanko, Tony Bergstrom, Maurice Harris, Zach Vigil, Byron Marshall: I would give all these guys non-guaranteed contracts to compete for jobs in training camp. Most of them will get cut, but one or two might stick around. Cap Hit = ~$2.00M (maybe).

 

Updated Cap Space: $32.71M

 

I'll have subsequent posts for my mock FA and mock draft, but I wanted to get this first stage posted now. My general ideas for the offseason include pursuing a high-end defensive FA (either Collins or Mosley), essentially ignoring the QB position until next year, hoping to draft an edge pass-rusher in Round 1 and a WR in Round 2 (with preferably an OG, TE, and DB in rounds 3-4), picking up a backup QB option and a versatile backup RB in the late rounds, and looking at a couple personal favorites (e.g., S Tre Boston, LB Denzel Perryman, EDGE Markus Golden, S Kenny Vaccaro, CB Justin Coleman) on affordable deals for potential contributors. 

[MKnight82]

26 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Stacy McGee: The most obvious cut, it simply didn't work out here for Stacy. The young DL depth we've developed makes this an easy decision. Cap Savings = $2.28M.

This is a no brainer, agreed.  

27 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Zach Brown: Lots of talent, just never really put it together as a complete LB. He's seemed disgruntled, and they can't afford to pay almost $9M to a limited ILB. Cap Savings = $5.75M.

I think its a failure of this coaching staff that Zach Brown regressed so much last year.  After being benched and complaining in the media he has to go though.  Agreed.  

27 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Vernon Davis: He may retire, and if so, good for him. Very good career. But he doesn't produce enough anymore, in terms of blocking or receiving, to earn his large salary. Cap Savings = $4.97M.

I agree, even if its only to force the FO to add another TE talent to the roster (which I think we need). 

28 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Mason Foster: Total reset at the ILB position. May have been able to justify keeping him based on play alone, despite utter lack of speed, but his IG fiasco is the last straw. Cap Savings = $4.25M.

Can't argue with this.  

29 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Brandon Scherff: 5 years, $62.5M, $32M in total guarantees. In essence, it's just an extension. The contract is based on the Kevin Zeitler deal that made him the 2nd-highest paid RG in football. Scherff would take over that position in the contract hierarchy with this deal. I don't see Zack Martin as a fair comp, as Martin was a 2x All-Pro who had never missed a game. Cap Savings = $4.03M.

Due to escalation I think we're going to have to make Scherff the highest paid Guard in the game to retain him.  That's just how salaries go.  

29 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Josh Norman and a 2020 6th Round pick to Buffalo Bills for a 2019 4th Round pick: I don't think Norman has been bad here. But he also hasn't been great here. It seems to be time for both sides to go their separate ways. This deal would reunite him with Sean McDermott, who was Norman's DC in 2015 when he really broke out. The Bills have a lot of money to spend (but no FAs who ever want to take it), and they have a really good young CB in Tre'Davious White who would make for an excellent pairing with Norman. Cap Savings = $8.50M.

I agree with not flat out cutting Norman.  Trading him is acceptable, but honestly I would just keep him for one more year.  Unless we spend the 15th pick in the draft we're not going to get anyone to play our #1 corner role better than a healthy Norman (granted injury is a risk).  I would roll with Norman one last year and target a CB next year either in FA or high in the draft.  

31 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Preston Smith: Let Walk. I think one of the things that has hurt Smith the most here is that he's too similar to Ryan Kerrigan. He's a solid all-around OLB, but he's not an elite pass-rusher. We need an elite pass-rusher to pair with Kerrigan, so we need to look elsewhere and let him find a new home where his abilities fit a little better.

No brainer, hasn't earned a new contract.  This is a fantastic draft for edge rushers.  Time to move on.  

31 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Jamison Crowder: Re-sign. 3 years, $24M, $15M in total guarantees. Crowder is an underrated player. Most probably would be surprised to know that in the 4 years he's been in the league, he ranks 29th in receptions and 30th in yards among WRs. In today's NFL, a player like him is a necessary safety blanket for a young QB and we should keep him in the fold. Using Albert Wilson's FA deal with Miami as a comp, we would be getting a bit of a bargain based on his down season. Cap Hit = $4.85M.

I think the FO is preparing for Crowder to leave, which sucks because he's a solid homegrown talent.  They've made comments about how Trey Quinn could replace him.  Personally I agree with you, I'd try to retain him.  

33 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix: Let Walk (probably). I would keep the door open with him, and if the market dries up for safeties like it did last season, I'd be willing to bring him back on something like Honey Badger's one year prove-it deal ($7M). Otherwise, I'd call the trade a loss and move on.

OK, I get that he wasn't amazing for us last year, and I agree that I wouldn't give him a mega extension.  But I think replacing both starting Safety positions in one offseason is going to be very difficult.  With that in mind I think we should really make a push to keep Haha.  I'd be willing to even give him a reasonable 3 year extension to get it done.  

35 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Ty Nsekhe: Re-sign (probably). If Geron Christian had emerged as a viable swing OT this season, I'd let him walk. But we need someone who can play behind Williams and Moses. If some team wants to pay him to be a starter, I'd congratulate him and pocket the comp pick. If not, I'd bring him back on a deal like last season's RFA tender. Cap Hit = $3.00M.

I think he really regressed this year.   I would let him walk and hope Christian can take his spot.  We didn't spend a 3rd on Christian to have him sit behind Nsekhe.  

36 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Adrian Peterson: Let Walk (probably). This one will probably be unpopular, but I just can't imagine a scenario in which I'd ever think it was smart to give a multi-year, FA market value contract to a 34-year-old RB. He did an amazing job for us last season -- he just is amazing -- but RB is the easiest position on the field to fill with young talent. We have a young RB who we think is a potential future star, we've got a quality 3rd down back, and we've got a load of Day 3 picks. We should be staying young at RB. If he wants to come back on the cheap, okay. Otherwise -- thank him for the incredible 2018 season and see if you can snag a pick out him signing elsewhere.

Agreed.  He gave us what we needed last year, but all of our carries need to be going to our young backs.  

36 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Pernell McPhee: Re-sign. I thought he played okay for us, and I liked some of the hints of leadership I was seeing. Would expect him to be behind Anderson and a rookie on the depth chart, and he might get beaten out in camp by another youngster, but I'd keep him in the fold on another deal like last year's. Cap Hit = $1.40M.

I'm going to disagree here.  I'm personally done with the aging edge rushers we keep adding to the roster.  I hope we double dip in this deep draft and have a young athletic guy grooming on the roster.  

37 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Josh Johnson: Re-sign. I don't see the point in going out and spending much more money on a better veteran backup QB. Cap Hit = $1.00M. 

Meh.  Maybe for camp but if Josh Johnson is on our opening day roster next year we better be tanking on purpose.  Would prefer Rosen/McCoy/Draft Pick as the 3 QBs.  

38 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Shaun Lauvao: Let Walk, It's time.

Agreed.

38 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Jonathan Cooper, Arie Kouandjio, Luke Bowanko, Tony Bergstrom, Maurice Harris, Zach Vigil, Byron Marshall: I would give all these guys non-guaranteed contracts to compete for jobs in training camp. Most of them will get cut, but one or two might stick around. Cap Hit = ~$2.00M (maybe).

Sure why not. 

 

[Woz]

2 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I think the FO is preparing for Crowder to leave, which sucks because he's a solid homegrown talent.  They've made comments about how Trey Quinn could replace him.  Personally I agree with you, I'd try to retain him.  

While the fan in me might try to retain him, the cold-hearted GM part of me says he's going to be more valuable as compensatory pick.

2 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

41 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Jonathan Cooper, Arie Kouandjio, Luke Bowanko, Tony Bergstrom, Maurice Harris, Zach Vigil, Byron Marshall: I would give all these guys non-guaranteed contracts to compete for jobs in training camp. Most of them will get cut, but one or two might stick around. Cap Hit = ~$2.00M (maybe).

Sure why not. 

No to Kouandjio and Bergstrom. Done with those two.

[Thaiphoon]

1 hour ago, Woz said:

While the fan in me might try to retain him, the cold-hearted GM part of me says he's going to be more valuable as compensatory pick.

This. I like Jamison. But if he signs a good deal like I think he might, we might get back a 4th for him (*)

 

(*) Yes, I know comp picks are determined by who you lost and added, I'm just saying the value of the contract I expect him to sign might give us a 4th if we did nothing in FA.

[taylor made]

Looking forward to seeing Stage 2

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Due to escalation I think we're going to have to make Scherff the highest paid Guard in the game to retain him.  That's just how salaries go.

You very well may be right. If that’s what he’s looking for, though, I think we need to start looking to trade him. 

He’s a really good player — but a contract bigger than Zack Martin (6/$84M) is starting to creep up there towards elite WR or elite OT money. Hell, that’s basically what we gave Alex Smith. I don’t consider that to be a wise investment for a really good OG. Maybe if he had been invincible from a durability standpoint, but that hasn’t been the case either.

I’m hopeful that he won’t drive that hard a bargain. Hopefully the OG market will treat the Martin contract kinda the same way the S market has treated Eric Berry’s contract — as an outlier overpayment to keep a special player under special circumstances. So far, it sorta seems like that’s happened, with the Norwell FA deal from last off-season not really even approaching Martin territory. 

[Bo Duke]

The next week or so is going to be very entertaining and probably very frustrating. I really don't have a clue in what we're going to do but the two names to really keep an eye on are Landon Collins and Dante Fowler. If I remember correctly these are two players the Skins really liked coming out of the draft. They were both in the same draft as Scherrf. We went with him when Fowler went to Jacksonville and I think we were trying to jump back in for Collins but couldn't get it done. Don't hold me to that but it seems right 

[Doc Draper]

17 hours ago, e16bball said:

This is my preferred approach to the first stage of the NFL offseason (Cuts, Restructures, Trades, Re-Signings). The primary goal is to free up cap space, which I think is important. There are a few high-end FAs that I'd like to see us take a run at. And more importantly, given that the Redskins are plainly not going to eat the Alex Smith contract this season, I want them to be in a position where they will have plenty of cap space to roll over into next offseason to give us flexibility to swallow the whole deal at once. 

 

Current Cap Space: $17.72M

 

Cuts:

Stacy McGee: The most obvious cut, it simply didn't work out here for Stacy. The young DL depth we've developed makes this an easy decision. Cap Savings = $2.28M.

Zach Brown: Lots of talent, just never really put it together as a complete LB. He's seemed disgruntled, and they can't afford to pay almost $9M to a limited ILB. Cap Savings = $5.75M.

Vernon Davis: He may retire, and if so, good for him. Very good career. But he doesn't produce enough anymore, in terms of blocking or receiving, to earn his large salary. Cap Savings = $4.97M.

Mason Foster: Total reset at the ILB position. May have been able to justify keeping him based on play alone, despite utter lack of speed, but his IG fiasco is the last straw. Cap Savings = $4.25M.

 

Restructures:

Brandon Scherff: 5 years, $62.5M, $32M in total guarantees. In essence, it's just an extension. The contract is based on the Kevin Zeitler deal that made him the 2nd-highest paid RG in football. Scherff would take over that position in the contract hierarchy with this deal. I don't see Zack Martin as a fair comp, as Martin was a 2x All-Pro who had never missed a game. Cap Savings = $4.03M.

 

Trades:

Josh Norman and a 2020 6th Round pick to Buffalo Bills for a 2019 4th Round pick: I don't think Norman has been bad here. But he also hasn't been great here. It seems to be time for both sides to go their separate ways. This deal would reunite him with Sean McDermott, who was Norman's DC in 2015 when he really broke out. The Bills have a lot of money to spend (but no FAs who ever want to take it), and they have a really good young CB in Tre'Davious White who would make for an excellent pairing with Norman. Cap Savings = $8.50M.

 

Updated Cap Space: $44.96M

 

Redskins FAs:

 

Preston Smith: Let Walk. I think one of the things that has hurt Smith the most here is that he's too similar to Ryan Kerrigan. He's a solid all-around OLB, but he's not an elite pass-rusher. We need an elite pass-rusher to pair with Kerrigan, so we need to look elsewhere and let him find a new home where his abilities fit a little better.

Jamison Crowder: Re-sign. 3 years, $24M, $15M in total guarantees. Crowder is an underrated player. Most probably would be surprised to know that in the 4 years he's been in the league, he ranks 29th in receptions and 30th in yards among WRs. In today's NFL, a player like him is a necessary safety blanket for a young QB and we should keep him in the fold. Using Albert Wilson's FA deal with Miami as a comp, we would be getting a bit of a bargain based on his down season. Cap Hit = $4.85M.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix: Let Walk (probably). I would keep the door open with him, and if the market dries up for safeties like it did last season, I'd be willing to bring him back on something like Honey Badger's one year prove-it deal ($7M). Otherwise, I'd call the trade a loss and move on.

Ty Nsekhe: Re-sign (probably). If Geron Christian had emerged as a viable swing OT this season, I'd let him walk. But we need someone who can play behind Williams and Moses. If some team wants to pay him to be a starter, I'd congratulate him and pocket the comp pick. If not, I'd bring him back on a deal like last season's RFA tender. Cap Hit = $3.00M.

Adrian Peterson: Let Walk (probably). This one will probably be unpopular, but I just can't imagine a scenario in which I'd ever think it was smart to give a multi-year, FA market value contract to a 34-year-old RB. He did an amazing job for us last season -- he just is amazing -- but RB is the easiest position on the field to fill with young talent. We have a young RB who we think is a potential future star, we've got a quality 3rd down back, and we've got a load of Day 3 picks. We should be staying young at RB. If he wants to come back on the cheap, okay. Otherwise -- thank him for the incredible 2018 season and see if you can snag a pick out him signing elsewhere.

Pernell McPhee: Re-sign. I thought he played okay for us, and I liked some of the hints of leadership I was seeing. Would expect him to be behind Anderson and a rookie on the depth chart, and he might get beaten out in camp by another youngster, but I'd keep him in the fold on another deal like last year's. Cap Hit = $1.40M.

Josh Johnson: Re-sign. I don't see the point in going out and spending much more money on a better veteran backup QB. Cap Hit = $1.00M. 

Shaun Lauvao: Let Walk, It's time.

Jonathan Cooper, Arie Kouandjio, Luke Bowanko, Tony Bergstrom, Maurice Harris, Zach Vigil, Byron Marshall: I would give all these guys non-guaranteed contracts to compete for jobs in training camp. Most of them will get cut, but one or two might stick around. Cap Hit = ~$2.00M (maybe).

 

Updated Cap Space: $32.71M

 

I'll have subsequent posts for my mock FA and mock draft, but I wanted to get this first stage posted now. My general ideas for the offseason include pursuing a high-end defensive FA (either Collins or Mosley), essentially ignoring the QB position until next year, hoping to draft an edge pass-rusher in Round 1 and a WR in Round 2 (with preferably an OG, TE, and DB in rounds 3-4), picking up a backup QB option and a versatile backup RB in the late rounds, and looking at a couple personal favorites (e.g., S Tre Boston, LB Denzel Perryman, EDGE Markus Golden, S Kenny Vaccaro, CB Justin Coleman) on affordable deals for potential contributors. 

I like your plan. A couple of thoughts in addition:

i don’t think Norman is tradesble. Either get him to renegotiate significantly lower or you have to cut him. 

Ty is done- several years ago he should have been starting but they wasted him

id keep MVP just to give the fans a reason to watch a future HOF player as we don’t have any other ones. He might be a good leader and role model for Juice who btw has proven 0 so far

ok I’ll go there again lol- is this the year to trade Trent? After this year he will be a 30’s tackle and his value depreciated much faster. Could we get a 2 for him now from Cleveland who is desperate for a LT? We don’t have s replacement unless Geron can play so would draft a new LT. he makes a disproportionately high salary for his value. Moses is a natural LT as he’s left handed and move him to LT and pick up a bruiser at RT which is significantly cheaper and easier

I’d keep crowder and try to trade doctson who is a bust for how high we drafted him

reed- trade him

ive never like Dix’s play. He slow and a free lancer not instinctive so I’d move on from him

acquire Collins? Nope. We need pass covering safeties as I’m tired of watching us make scrub TE’s loook like hall of gamers every yesr

but really does any of this matter as long as we have gruden who was rated by a recent espn column as the third worst retained head coach? Going 6-10, 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 is dead mans zone for ever getting to a super bowl again 

 

- 

[A TRAIN 89]

The fans are clamoring for stage 2. Give the people what they want. 

[Woz]

1 hour ago, A TRAIN 89 said:

The fans are clamoring for stage 2. Give the people what they want. 

WHAT DO WE WANT?!

STAGE 2!!

WHEN DO WE WANT IT?!

... sometime in the nearish future ... pretty please?

[Thaiphoon]

21 minutes ago, Woz said:

WHAT DO WE WANT?!

STAGE 2!!

WHEN DO WE WANT IT?!

... sometime in the nearish future ... pretty please?

Wait...is this the line for Cinnabon?

[MikeT14]

Stage 1 is good.

[turtle28]

I can live with this, although I'd like to keep Peterson, Haha (for the reasons Mknight named) and for me it depends on the size of the contract for Preston Smith. I don't necessarily agree that the next player we draft to play ROLB is going to be an upgrade over him.

Also, I want nothing to do with re-signing Mcphee. I'd hope they'd re-sign Galette (but I'm sure Allen won't)draft someone, or sign someone younger and more athletic  like MKnight said.