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Spencer Ware As An Option


soulman

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ATM: Bears Should Target Spencer Ware

212bf710fe9dfd56c9762bf769cdf891?s=16&d= Andrew Dannehy | March 5th, 2019

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A 230-pound back with 4.6 speed isn’t what most fans are dreaming of this offseason. But Spencer Ware, a sixth-round pick by Seattle in 2013, could be the perfect fit for the 2019 Chicago Bears.

At this point in his career, Ware is known as a backup, but he once earned Kansas City’s starting job by rushing for 403 yards  — 5.6 per carry — and six touchdowns in 2015. He held the starting job in 2016, making 14 starts and totaling 1,368 yards from scrimmage; more than Jordan Howard has managed each of the last two years. He was poised to start for the Chiefs again in 2017 before a preseason injury knocked him out and Kareem Hunt exploded. Ware reemerged late last season, rushing for 122 yards in two starts before another injury knocked him out until the playoffs.

With Damien Williams performing well in the playoffs, Ware will likely be looking elsewhere for a chance to compete for a starting gig. Where better than Chicago? On paper, he may not seem like an upgrade over Howard, and he may not be a better overall runner, but Ware can simply do things that Howard can’t. These are the things the Bears need their running backs to be able to do.


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Howard excelled early in his career at running outside zone plays, cutting up the field, against the grain. With Nagy’s inside zone scheme, the Bears are asking Howard to do the opposite, to be able to take inside runs outside and he simply hasn’t done it effectively.

 

Despite the fact that Howard timed better than both Ware and Hunt in the 40-yard dash, he isn’t as explosive. As Johnathan Wood broke down last week, Howard tested below average in a couple key drills for the Bears and that stuff shows up on the field.

Then, of course, there is the impact on the passing game.

“(You want to have a guy) that can make guys miss and, at the same time, there’s that balance of being a hybrid of being able to make things happen in the passing game too,” Matt Nagy said at the combine last week.

Ware caught 33 passes in 2016 and 20 in 2018, despite playing limited snaps. Just as impressive, however, is his career average of 11.5 yards per catch, compared to Howard’s 7.9. For their careers, Ware has averaged a yard more per touch than Howard.

Too much is made of Howard’s ability to catch; he does fine on dump offs, but he isn’t natural and has struggled catching on the run. The real issue is with the route running. We have never seen Howard beat a running back on a wheel route, or even be able to run a wheel route. Ware can do that and more.


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Unlike some of the top options in the draft, Ware can also handle the load in short-yardage, which is where Howard was most valuable to the Bears last year.

Signing Ware would also fit what the Bears have done in the past, filling needs in free agency so they can draft the best player available.

In this case, they could likely trade Howard for an addition draft pick — likely fifth round or later — to help add to their current total. The next best option is waiting and hoping a running back who can play all three downs drops to them in the draft and that player can come in and play right away.

Ware isn’t a Hall of Famer and there certainly are injury concerns that should be monitored, but he’s a good player when healthy and he fits what the Bears want to do. Running backs who can do everything the Bears need aren’t all that common, the Bears have an opportunity to get one cheap.

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I like his thinking as bold faced in the article and this is also what I've suggested as far as signing Ware.

Not only does he give us another experienced RB whose likely a co-equal of Howard but he's also a better receiver, a little niftier as a runner, and the bonus is he already knows the offense and can probably be signed for no more than Howard is getting or less.  So instead of one $4-$5 mil FA RB we end up with two $2 mil RBs competing for carries and both of whom can handle short yardage and goal line work as well.

Not only does it free Pace up as far as how to use his limited number of draft picks but it also gives him an option to trade Howard for a pick that might be used on a back to replace him or in keeping both Howard and Ware draft a back with more upside whose not quite ready to handle starting in this offense Day 1.  A back like Bryce Love comes to mind.  I guess I see Ware as an inexpensive option to supplement Howard.

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4 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’m with Mike - I have no problem adding Ware but would want him being as the guy to fill the Mizzell/Cunningham role. 

That would be my thinking as well but also with a chance that he can offer more competition for carries than either of those two could and give Nagy that RB who is also a receiving threat when on the field.  He can both fill a need and create some options for Pace come draft weekend which is how Pace likes to operate.

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20 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

I don't think there is any doubt Ware is an option to be signed here...that said I want no part of him as a lead back but in a RBBC approach sure...would prefer Mike Davis though.

I like Davis as well but based on both his scouting and his stats is this gonna be a problem.  As his carries have increase each year so has his production especially his ypc.  So would we be getting another Howard who won't function as well with only a half dozen carries per game?  Other than that he'd be a nice complimentary back.

Bottom Line

Rhythm runner who is at his best when he's getting plenty of work. Davis has a surprising ability to turn on the jets and get on top of the secondary quickly for long runs, and his north-south mentality is a fit for the pros. With an ability to play on third down as well, the only thing holding Davis back is conditioning. Davis won't make too many defenders miss, so he can't afford to lose the corner speed he showed in 2013. Davis can be a very capable NFL backup with the potential to become a starter.

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25 minutes ago, soulman said:

I like Davis as well but based on both his scouting and his stats is this gonna be a problem.  As his carries have increase each year so has his production especially his ypc.  So would we be getting another Howard who won't function as well with only a half dozen carries per game?  Other than that he'd be a nice complimentary back.

Bottom Line

Rhythm runner who is at his best when he's getting plenty of work. Davis has a surprising ability to turn on the jets and get on top of the secondary quickly for long runs, and his north-south mentality is a fit for the pros. With an ability to play on third down as well, the only thing holding Davis back is conditioning. Davis won't make too many defenders miss, so he can't afford to lose the corner speed he showed in 2013. Davis can be a very capable NFL backup with the potential to become a starter.

I think it's difficult to make an argument regarding his stats because in his 4 years he has only had one season with over 70 carries...yes he does get better with more carries but it's not like he jumped from under 70 to over 250...he still only had 112 carries last season...that gives me hope that if he is being used right then there is a sweet spot for him in a RBBC approach or even as just a guy who if he gets going in a single game gets more carries.

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If we aren't going all in with Ingram at HB the only two FAs I can say I want taking a starting role is Ware and Yeldon.

 

Ware is a better runner and has only 340 rushes to his name in the NFL. He seems healthy and has been a consistent runner.

Yeldon has been a damn good receiver, and that has been with Bortles and Kessler as his QBs and little help on the outside last year to take the focus off the RBs. 

 

Ware's stats likely are a bit inflated because of the massive amount of talent around him (Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Conley, really good OL... zero 8 man fronts to worry about outside of the goal line) and Reid being one of the best offensive minds in the game that has his system fully installed in KC. He isn't great at anything but seems good at everything. Has enough speed for some long runs, pretty good receiver, runs really hard, and will finish with contact. Hard not to like him as an option if his knee is completely healthy. But he is never going to be the guy you hang your offense on like a Barkley, Zeke, Kamara, McCaffery, etc. That isn't really an issue to me though, with talent around the RB and on the OL you should be able to manufacture yards with an average talent. That allows us to go with the guy with the most potential with our pick.


Yeldon has been on a garbage offense for a while now and has a connection to ARob, who seems really happy here. He makes some plays with regularity in space, and Lord knows we could use anyone that gets YAC for us. When he and Fournette were both healthy he took a lot of 3rd downs away from Fournette due to his receiving ability. He is a bit shiftier than Ware but is injury prone, so I doubt he is really a target, but someone I would be interested in a RBC, especially if Pace is going to be aggressive in the draft to get his guy and Cohen continues to be the hybrid player more than a regular HB.

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One concern I have in this draft is a potential drop off in the caliber of backs after Josh Jacobs.  How many other backs have a shot at becoming an immediate starter and beyond that how many will fall as far as the #87 pick?

If we sign Ware, trade Howard, and draft a back in round three we'd have to be pretty certain Ware could handle a starting role until our rookie gets up to speed or we go without a true lead back and it's all RBBC for now 'til one emerges.

When I look at the entire RB group this year I have to wonder if the majority of them are not more of the complimentary back type than a lead back.  Jacobs is the best of the lot and he's not at the level of an Elliot or a Barkley either.

This leads me to wonder whether unless Pace gets an offer for Howard he can't afford to ignore we may be better off pairing him with a complimentary vet RB and drafting a rookie we can bring along more slowly to see if he can handle a #1 role.

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8 minutes ago, soulman said:

One concern I have in this draft is a potential drop off in the caliber of backs after Josh Jacobs.  How many other backs have a shot at becoming an immediate starter and beyond that how many will fall as far as the #87 pick?

If we sign Ware, trade Howard, and draft a back in round three we'd have to be pretty certain Ware could handle a starting role until our rookie gets up to speed or we go without a true lead back and it's all RBBC for now 'til one emerges.

When I look at the entire RB group this year I have to wonder if the majority of them are not more of the complimentary back type than a lead back.  Jacobs is the best of the lot and he's not at the level of an Elliot or a Barkley either.

This leads me to wonder whether unless Pace gets an offer for Howard he can't afford to ignore we may be better off pairing him with a complimentary vet RB and drafting a rookie we can bring along more slowly to see if he can handle a #1 role.

Honestly, Darrell Henderson was a ****ing monster during his career and I assume Pace has seen him quite a bit while he was scouting Miller.

Henderson is a touch shorter and lighter than Hunt was at the combine but faster as well.

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21 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Honestly, Darrell Henderson was a ****ing monster during his career and I assume Pace has seen him quite a bit while he was scouting Miller.

Henderson is a touch shorter and lighter than Hunt was at the combine but faster as well.

I like Henderson a lot.  Along with Montgomery and Sanders he's a guy I hope we can get.  Each offers something a bit different but as always how well does their showing in college translate as far as being a #1 back in the pros?

All three grade in that area just below what you like to see from a Day One starter.  Montgomery may be closest but he seems to be more like Howard than the other two.  Sanders has low mileage and seems to be a good fit for a zone scheme but having played so little in college he may need more time to develop.  I love Henderson's big play ability but I have trouble seeing him as a #1 RB in the NFL vs a complimentary back.

With the Bears at the stage of competing for a championship I think it's wise to have an experienced RB as your #1 guy which would mean Howard or another vet to either supplement or replace him but one with more versatility whose a better fit for Nagy's approach.

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We've discusses Tevin Coleman as another option but this would seem to say that only works if he's coming to replace Howard as a full time #1 back. 

We might get his first year cap down to maybe $3.5 mil but if he can command anywhere near this kind of a deal he'd have to be a #1 RB not a #2.

 

Calculated Market Value

Market Value

  • 4 yrs, $20,343,936
  • Avg. Salary: $5,085,984
  • NFL Rank: 331
  • RB Rank: 11

Current Contract

  • Free Agent: 2019
  • Avg. Salary: $804,843
  • NFL Rank: 1,036
  • RB Rank: 59

Comparable Players

We've selected the following players based on their age, contract status, and statistical production to compare Tevin Coleman to.

Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Averages 3.5 $17,887,500 $5,110,714 26
Isaiah Crowell 3 $12,000,000 $4,000,000 25
Rex Burkhead 3 $9,750,000 $3,250,000 27
Jerick McKinnon 4 $30,000,000 $7,500,000 25
Dion Lewis 4 $19,800,000 $4,950,000 27
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1 hour ago, soulman said:

We've discusses Tevin Coleman as another option but this would seem to say that only works if he's coming to replace Howard as a full time #1 back. 

We might get his first year cap down to maybe $3.5 mil but if he can command anywhere near this kind of a deal he'd have to be a #1 RB not a #2.

 

Calculated Market Value

Market Value

  • 4 yrs, $20,343,936
  • Avg. Salary: $5,085,984
  • NFL Rank: 331
  • RB Rank: 11

Current Contract

  • Free Agent: 2019
  • Avg. Salary: $804,843
  • NFL Rank: 1,036
  • RB Rank: 59

Comparable Players

We've selected the following players based on their age, contract status, and statistical production to compare Tevin Coleman to.

Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Averages 3.5 $17,887,500 $5,110,714 26
Isaiah Crowell 3 $12,000,000 $4,000,000 25
Rex Burkhead 3 $9,750,000 $3,250,000 27
Jerick McKinnon 4 $30,000,000 $7,500,000 25
Dion Lewis 4 $19,800,000 $4,950,000 27

Oh yeah, if Coleman is our guy he’s coming here to be THE guy. He’s my #1 target at the position too - he checks all the boxes Nagy is looking for in terms of speed and versatility, takes care of the ball (1 fumble per 88 touches over his career) and has been pretty durable (56 of 64 games since entering the league, with only 1 total missed game the last 2 years with his highest usage volume). 

I’m envisioning adding a combo of Coleman in FA and a late round RB like Tony Pollard from Memphis (who is a dynamite KR), and then moving on from Howard in some regard. Last year we had 400 non-Trubisky runs. Figuring off the same number I’d expect that split to be about 240 to Coleman (15 per game), 115 to Cohen, 30 to Pollard (Mizzell/Cunningham had 20 last year) and 15 elsewhere (we had 19 WR carries last year), with Pollard potentially taking a few more carries from Coleman. 

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6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Oh yeah, if Coleman is our guy he’s coming here to be THE guy. He’s my #1 target at the position too - he checks all the boxes Nagy is looking for in terms of speed and versatility, takes care of the ball (1 fumble per 88 touches over his career) and has been pretty durable (56 of 64 games since entering the league, with only 1 total missed game the last 2 years with his highest usage volume). 

I’m envisioning adding a combo of Coleman in FA and a late round RB like Tony Pollard from Memphis (who is a dynamite KR), and then moving on from Howard in some regard. Last year we had 400 non-Trubisky runs. Figuring off the same number I’d expect that split to be about 240 to Coleman (15 per game), 115 to Cohen, 30 to Pollard (Mizzell/Cunningham had 20 last year) and 15 elsewhere (we had 19 WR carries last year), with Pollard potentially taking a few more carries from Coleman. 

It works if we can trade Howard but what if we can't?  Do you propose we just release him?

If rumors are accurate Pace has been shopping Howard and here we are a week from FA and no deal.  Coleman seems to be an attractive enough option for several teams that I'd think we'd need to move on him immediately to assure we're in the hunt and have a shot.

If we can bring him in with a $20 mil deal with maybe half that guaranteed and keep his 2019 cap around $3.5 mil or so we might still be OK but we're also on the hook for $2.1 mil for Howard and I don't see Pace simply letting him go.  So the deal would have to be right to fit him in wouldn't it?

 

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