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Spencer Ware As An Option


soulman

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12 hours ago, soulman said:

It works if we can trade Howard but what if we can't?  Do you propose we just release him?

If rumors are accurate Pace has been shopping Howard and here we are a week from FA and no deal.  Coleman seems to be an attractive enough option for several teams that I'd think we'd need to move on him immediately to assure we're in the hunt and have a shot.

If we can bring him in with a $20 mil deal with maybe half that guaranteed and keep his 2019 cap around $3.5 mil or so we might still be OK but we're also on the hook for $2.1 mil for Howard and I don't see Pace simply letting him go.  So the deal would have to be right to fit him in wouldn't it?

I don’t think it’s off the table at all that they could release him if they don’t get any actual offer. I’m not sure there is actually any offer from anyone - I personally think it’s the team leaking the “trade discussions” to Schefter in an effort to drum up something. Take sentiment out of it though - not in the plan is not in the plan. I completely agree that he’d have value as a RB3 or 4 but at $2M if he’s not gonna dress since he doesn’t play ST he’s a waste of cap space. 

I’ve been saying for weeks if he isn’t in the team’s plan for 2019 then they should get whatever they can for him even if it’s a super small return. Anything is more than nothing, and $2M in cap space may very well be more valuable than a RB they’re going to plant at the end of the bench all season. We have basically no leverage right now to ask for a lot. I agree with you that Coleman or Bell or even Ingram are probably gonna be a day 1 signings so if we’re gonna be in on them it’s gotta be right from jump. We are gonna have even less leverage after signing those guys than we do now in a trade. If we make a trade it’s gotta be in the next few days, before FA starts. Beyond that, Howard is well liked in the locker room, and getting rid of a well liked guy will go over a lot more favorably in the room if we do so in a way that gives him the best chance to make out well in FA (should we end up releasing him). If we sit on him a week into FA and THEN release him then we’re basically making sure he doesn’t get a starting gig elsewhere too, which is a bad move IMO. 

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I'll start out by saying I don't believe we'll release him.  Howard has value.  How much is what may be being debated.  I'll also say I think Adam Schefter is quite often more smoke than fire.  All he's done so far is chum the water with some click bait.  Quote; "Schefter did not go into specifics of who showed any particular interest in the young running back"  This and the rest of his headline says nothing to me at all.

When we trade Howard or if we trade him at all is still our option.  In Pace's judgement if the offers we get aren't worth more than keeping him for another year then just as we did with Matt Forte we do that and add other backs around him from FA and the draft.  Howard may not be an ideal fit but he's a proven1000 yard plus back who also finds the end zone.  Who can't use a RB like that.  We can too.

We have options here and if Pace is smart he'll use them all the way up to draft weekend if necessary.

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On 3/6/2019 at 8:51 AM, Sugashane said:

If we aren't going all in with Ingram at HB the only two FAs I can say I want taking a starting role is Ware and Yeldon.

 

Ware is a better runner and has only 340 rushes to his name in the NFL. He seems healthy and has been a consistent runner.

Yeldon has been a damn good receiver, and that has been with Bortles and Kessler as his QBs and little help on the outside last year to take the focus off the RBs. 

 

Ware's stats likely are a bit inflated because of the massive amount of talent around him (Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Conley, really good OL... zero 8 man fronts to worry about outside of the goal line) and Reid being one of the best offensive minds in the game that has his system fully installed in KC. He isn't great at anything but seems good at everything. Has enough speed for some long runs, pretty good receiver, runs really hard, and will finish with contact. Hard not to like him as an option if his knee is completely healthy. But he is never going to be the guy you hang your offense on like a Barkley, Zeke, Kamara, McCaffery, etc. That isn't really an issue to me though, with talent around the RB and on the OL you should be able to manufacture yards with an average talent. That allows us to go with the guy with the most potential with our pick.


Yeldon has been on a garbage offense for a while now and has a connection to ARob, who seems really happy here. He makes some plays with regularity in space, and Lord knows we could use anyone that gets YAC for us. When he and Fournette were both healthy he took a lot of 3rd downs away from Fournette due to his receiving ability. He is a bit shiftier than Ware but is injury prone, so I doubt he is really a target, but someone I would be interested in a RBC, especially if Pace is going to be aggressive in the draft to get his guy and Cohen continues to be the hybrid player more than a regular HB.

I'm looking into Yeldon a bit more and while I don't like how upright he runs, I think he's perfect for what we want in the passing game.

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28 minutes ago, G08 said:

I'm looking into Yeldon a bit more and while I don't like how upright he runs, I think he's perfect for what we want in the passing game.

That's really what I am looking at too. Low mileage on him, he catches the ball as smoothly as you can ask, and he makes people miss in space (which was a point of emphasis from Nagy). I think he is going to be my monk's "big" signing. 

 

I was going to have it be Mathieu, but I have a sneaking suspicion he gets a deal in the $10 mil per year range. Should have jumped at him when we had the chance last year. 

 

IMO that is dead on. $4-5 mil per is what I am guessing, and I am willing to do a 4 year $20 mil deal with $15 guaranteed if Nagy feels that is the key piece we are missing. Trade Howard and draft a runner in the 5th or 6th to fit a role or to back him up if Cohen is set as just the hybrid WR/HB. 

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2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

IMO that is dead on. $4-5 mil per is what I am guessing, and I am willing to do a 4 year $20 mil deal with $15 guaranteed if Nagy feels that is the key piece we are missing. Trade Howard and draft a runner in the 5th or 6th to fit a role or to back him up if Cohen is set as just the hybrid WR/HB. 

4 years/$20M and you absolutely have to get rid of Howard and his $2M hit this season. I could live with it, honestly. Don't know much about his personality/history so I'm assuming he's not some Grade-A ****** bag.

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45 minutes ago, G08 said:

4 years/$20M and you absolutely have to get rid of Howard and his $2M hit this season. I could live with it, honestly. Don't know much about his personality/history so I'm assuming he's not some Grade-A ****** bag.

They could keep both if need be. You could structure it to keep Howard if you thought you were getting the rookie Howard (as he's on a contract year, so may be in peak shape). Something like 3/5/6/6 or similar. He's getting a big chunk the first year anyway, so this structure wouldn't hurt him at all.  

I'm in the same boat. If he is a POS then I'd be a no-go. I can handle divas like T.O., Moss, etc if they are elite talents but even then it's only for a stretch of time. Yeldon is pretty good, but not worth that kind of headache. 

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3 hours ago, soulman said:

I'll start out by saying I don't believe we'll release him.  Howard has value.  How much is what may be being debated.  I'll also say I think Adam Schefter is quite often more smoke than fire.  All he's done so far is chum the water with some click bait.  Quote; "Schefter did not go into specifics of who showed any particular interest in the young running back"  This and the rest of his headline says nothing to me at all.

When we trade Howard or if we trade him at all is still our option.  In Pace's judgement if the offers we get aren't worth more than keeping him for another year then just as we did with Matt Forte we do that and add other backs around him from FA and the draft.  Howard may not be an ideal fit but he's a proven1000 yard plus back who also finds the end zone.  Who can't use a RB like that.  We can too.

We have options here and if Pace is smart he'll use them all the way up to draft weekend if necessary.

Howard has some value, but he also doesn’t have any elite skills, and his last 526 carries have resulted in 3.91 ypc. That’s... not good, and it’s not just on the stat sheet. He looks slow. It’s time to stop talking about him like he’s a great player, because he hasn’t produced like even an above average starter for two years. If he were 28 years old instead of 24 with that trend we’d be talking about how he might be on his way out of the league this offseason. This isn’t a Greg Olsen situation. Olsen was a consistently above average performer with an elite receiving TE skill set who was still ascending when he was traded away. Apples and oranges.

If Howard if kept is going to be used here (or rather not used) as a guy riding the pine or inactive on Sundays in 2019 because he’s been kept as depth only and doesn’t play ST then he’s not adding any value to us. And really if he’s JUST emergency depth then I’d rather we have someone whose skill set doesn’t require having to completely rework the gameplan to fit a backup were he to be forced into regular action. If we aren’t going to use him and do so regularly then keeping him in any capacity at all makes no sense. If he’s just going to be a goal line back then we can get a guy to do that at the back of the draft for 25% the cost and with more upside in what we do or in FA on a vet minimum deal. 

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11 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Howard has some value, but he also doesn’t have any elite skills, and his last 526 carries have resulted in 3.91 ypc. That’s... not good, and it’s not just on the stat sheet. He looks slow. It’s time to stop talking about him like he’s a great player, because he hasn’t produced like even an above average starter for two years. If he were 28 years old instead of 24 with that trend we’d be talking about how he might be on his way out of the league this offseason. This isn’t a Greg Olsen situation. Olsen was a consistently above average performer with an elite receiving TE skill set who was still ascending when he was traded away. Apples and oranges.

If Howard if kept is going to be used here (or rather not used) as a guy riding the pine or inactive on Sundays in 2019 because he’s been kept as depth only and doesn’t play ST then he’s not adding any value to us. And really if he’s JUST emergency depth then I’d rather we have someone whose skill set doesn’t require having to completely rework the gameplan to fit a backup were he to be forced into regular action. If we aren’t going to use him and do so regularly then keeping him in any capacity at all makes no sense. If he’s just going to be a goal line back then we can get a guy to do that at the back of the draft for 25% the cost and with more upside in what we do or in FA on a vet minimum deal. 

Like I said before.....we see this differently and Greg Olsen has nothing to do with this so why keep throwing his name in the pot?

I've not said he's a great RB.  I've only said that he's both useful and productive.  If you choose to believe Adam Schefter then "multiple teams" also feel a RB who can average around 4 yds per touch and score 9 tds a year also has value.  How much value is subject to negotiation which I'm sure has happened to at least some degree.

If he's not traded he won't be just "riding the pine" or inactive.  That makes no sense.  He may be more limited in his snaps and become more of a "grinder" and goal line back but he won't be $2 mil "emergency depth".  That's a role you hand to a much cheaper back like Cunningham or a rookie learning the offense and his role in it.

I'm just gonna keep saying we'll see how it plays out.  You have a more severe and negative outlook about Howard than I do but what it all comes down to is how do Pace and Nagy view him as far as is worth in trade vs keeping him for another year.  Beyond this year we all seem to agree that we'll have to move on.  But for now is he worth more to keep than what we can get for him?

I'll continue to keep looking at this until it breaks one way or another but needless to say if we can get a 3rd round pick now, well than do it.

 

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FWIW here's an article on teams who may or may not be interested in Howard and what they may or may not be willing to pay.  All just guesses.

Needless to say if we could cut some of these deal I'd be all in but less so on others.  So again, FWIW read on and draw your own conclusions.

https://dawindycity.com/2019/03/08/chicago-bears-teams-trade-jordan-howard/

 

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8 hours ago, soulman said:

Like I said before.....we see this differently and Greg Olsen has nothing to do with this so why keep throwing his name in the pot?

I've not said he's a great RB.  I've only said that he's both useful and productive.  If you choose to believe Adam Schefter then "multiple teams" also feel a RB who can average around 4 yds per touch and score 9 tds a year also has value.  How much value is subject to negotiation which I'm sure has happened to at least some degree.

If he's not traded he won't be just "riding the pine" or inactive.  That makes no sense.  He may be more limited in his snaps and become more of a "grinder" and goal line back but he won't be $2 mil "emergency depth".  That's a role you hand to a much cheaper back like Cunningham or a rookie learning the offense and his role in it.

I'm just gonna keep saying we'll see how it plays out.  You have a more severe and negative outlook about Howard than I do but what it all comes down to is how do Pace and Nagy view him as far as is worth in trade vs keeping him for another year.  Beyond this year we all seem to agree that we'll have to move on.  But for now is he worth more to keep than what we can get for him?

I'll continue to keep looking at this until it breaks one way or another but needless to say if we can get a 3rd round pick now, well than do it.

 

If we get a 3 for a guy who averaged 3.6 ypc on 250 carries last year with us adding nothing else to the deal then you can have my car. It’s not nice, so don’t get your hopes up, but the likelihood of that is very close to zero. 

It doesn’t really matter what I think of Howard as a player at this point (which you’re right isn’t much) because it’s plain as day what Nagy thinks about what he brings, and that’s all that matters. My thinking with saying he’d be riding the pine or inactive next year was based on a few of factors: 

- He lost reps to Mizzell and Cunningham last year nearly every week, and Mizzell may have been the worst RB in the NFL.

- That it’s out there that we are shopping him suggests very strongly that he’s not part of the 2019 plan at all, meaning Nagy doesn’t WANT to play him. 

- If we sign a guy and draft another (which I’m expecting) then both new guys plus Cohen would be preferred by this regime over Howard, making Howard de facto #4 on Sundays. How many #4 RB in the entire league are active on Sundays if they don’t play coverage teams or return kicks? Are there any? 

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16 hours ago, soulman said:

FWIW here's an article on teams who may or may not be interested in Howard and what they may or may not be willing to pay.  All just guesses.

Needless to say if we could cut some of these deal I'd be all in but less so on others.  So again, FWIW read on and draw your own conclusions.

https://dawindycity.com/2019/03/08/chicago-bears-teams-trade-jordan-howard/

 

This article says Philly offered a 3rd for him back in October. Not sure how much I buy that

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38 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

This article says Philly offered a 3rd for him back in October. Not sure how much I buy that

 

That's why I figured we could each draw our own conclusions.  Some of those deals I'd be happy to make.

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10 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

If we get a 3 for a guy who averaged 3.6 ypc on 250 carries last year with us adding nothing else to the deal then you can have my car. It’s not nice, so don’t get your hopes up, but the likelihood of that is very close to zero. 

It doesn’t really matter what I think of Howard as a player at this point (which you’re right isn’t much) because it’s plain as day what Nagy thinks about what he brings, and that’s all that matters. My thinking with saying he’d be riding the pine or inactive next year was based on a few of factors: 

- He lost reps to Mizzell and Cunningham last year nearly every week, and Mizzell may have been the worst RB in the NFL.

- That it’s out there that we are shopping him suggests very strongly that he’s not part of the 2019 plan at all, meaning Nagy doesn’t WANT to play him. 

- If we sign a guy and draft another (which I’m expecting) then both new guys plus Cohen would be preferred by this regime over Howard, making Howard de facto #4 on Sundays. How many #4 RB in the entire league are active on Sundays if they don’t play coverage teams or return kicks? Are there any? 

I included that only because of some of the deals suggested in that article I posted.  To get a 3rd today we'd need to add a pick of our own.

Was listening to the Podcast Adam Hoge and Adam Jahns do and my thinking aligns with theirs.

Pace will first make a run at signing the back he wants in FA and it may happen quickly as he waits out developments on Amos and Callahan assuming neither has been signed.  Looking over the prospects I think there's a good chance Tevin Coleman might be who we go after first with an offer.  If that fails then Ware or Yeldon may be Plan B.

If he lands Coleman or feels Ware/Yeldon and a rookie can handle RB in 2019 and he signs Ware/Yeldon he'll work on trading Howard soon after all the way up to the draft.  But both believe Pace will not pull the trigger on Howard until he's secured a vet back who can start in his place and this I tend to agree with in principal.

I've never been opposed to trading Howard as long as we had a back who can replace him who wasn't a rookie mid round pick.  That would be riskier than keeping him.  Replacing Howard with another vet whose skill set is a better fit has always been on the table and it's how I believe Pace will approach it.

What tends to confirm this is the lack of a suitable replacement was why Pace wouldn't deal Howard last fall and I don't feel that's changed except that now he can go out and sign a vet replacement whose a known quantity and who better fits what Nagy wants from his lead back. Then we draft a kid who'll replace Cunningham and Mizzell.

This makes the most sense to me.  Trading Howard prior to having someone better to take his place never has.

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On 3/9/2019 at 8:16 AM, soulman said:

I included that only because of some of the deals suggested in that article I posted.  To get a 3rd today we'd need to add a pick of our own.

Was listening to the Podcast Adam Hoge and Adam Jahns do and my thinking aligns with theirs.

Pace will first make a run at signing the back he wants in FA and it may happen quickly as he waits out developments on Amos and Callahan assuming neither has been signed.  Looking over the prospects I think there's a good chance Tevin Coleman might be who we go after first with an offer.  If that fails then Ware or Yeldon may be Plan B.

If he lands Coleman or feels Ware/Yeldon and a rookie can handle RB in 2019 and he signs Ware/Yeldon he'll work on trading Howard soon after all the way up to the draft.  But both believe Pace will not pull the trigger on Howard until he's secured a vet back who can start in his place and this I tend to agree with in principal.

I've never been opposed to trading Howard as long as we had a back who can replace him who wasn't a rookie mid round pick.  That would be riskier than keeping him.  Replacing Howard with another vet whose skill set is a better fit has always been on the table and it's how I believe Pace will approach it.

What tends to confirm this is the lack of a suitable replacement was why Pace wouldn't deal Howard last fall and I don't feel that's changed except that now he can go out and sign a vet replacement whose a known quantity and who better fits what Nagy wants from his lead back. Then we draft a kid who'll replace Cunningham and Mizzell.

This makes the most sense to me.  Trading Howard prior to having someone better to take his place never has.

I agree wholeheartedly with that thought process, but I also think any slim trade leverage we have now goes away or at least significantly dwindles the second we have Howard’s vet replacement on the roster too. It really depends on the plan - if it’s Coleman/Ingram or keep Howard then you probably need them locked in before letting Howard go but if the plan is for a bridge guy and a round 3 rookie then you may be able to move sooner on Howard because the likelihood you can get a viable bridge guy is almost a certainty where getting the perverbial big fish is a more remote possibility unless you’re telling yourself you won’t be outbid under any circumstances. Technically I guess it could happen during the “legal tampering” period (unrelated - I HATE that term). If we land Coleman it’s a relative foregone conclusion that Howard will eventually be let go IMO and because of that I don’t think at that point anyone would give up anything other than MAYBE a conditional 7th. 

At least we’ll finally get some answers this week. Then we can move on to the part where we scrutinize everything that happens or doesn’t happen to the Nth degree. 

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