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NickChowaniec

Nick's Post-Combine (Dream?) Offseason

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Posted (edited)

Est. Cap Space (Top 51): $72,839,877 (via Spotrac)

Signings:

--- already factored into cap above ---

Duke Williams, WR – unsure on #s
Spencer Long, C/G – 3 year, $12.6 million (2019 cap hit – $3,937,500)
Jordan Phillips, DT – 1 year, $4.5 million 

--- projected signings/tenders ---

Logan Thomas, TE – 1 year, $1.2 million

That's it. The likes of Jordan Mills, Ryan Groy, John Miller, Deonte Thompson, etc. are not brought back. Time to move on.

 

Cuts:

Russell Bodine, C (saving 1.9 mil)

Chris Ivory, RB (saving 2.1 mil)

Vladimir Ducasse, OL (saving 2 mil)

Entering FA our cap number is: ~$77,639,877 

 

Key Free Agents:

I want to preface this by explaining the direction I'm going with my signings and why we are in a unique position of being able to throw some serious coin at positions that usually don't get paid a lot of money. On most teams in the NFL a significant portion of their cap is allotted to playmakers and the quarterback position. Our team is setup is such a way that has the majority of those positions on rookie deals and will have those deals in place for many years going forward. This puts us in a unique position to be able to offer significant money to players at positions that most teams can't afford to pay, like linebacker, right tackle, center, etc. I also chose to spend a lot of my money in the first two or three years of the contract. That will allow us to have a lower cap hit in later years, freeing up some cash to re-sign some of our (hopefully) star players like Tre' White, Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and so on.  

 

Anthony Barr, SLB – 5 years, $65 million ; AAV: 13 mil - (contract breakdown 15, 15, 13, 11, 11) 

This contract makes Barr the highest paid non-pass rush specialist linebacker in the league. In his prime at just 27, Barr would step in as our primary SLB allowing Lorenzo Alexander to play more of a specialist role and remain fresh. We are (maybe) overpaying but we have the money and offering the size contract I did, ensures we get him here playing with Edmunds and Milano for a long time. How exciting is that trio going forward? 

  • Comparable contracts at similar position: Telvin Smith, 27 (11.2 AAV) ; Jamie Collins, 28 (12.5 AAV)

 

Daryl Williams, RT – 5 years, $53 million ; AAV: 10.6 mil - (contract breakdown 13, 11, 11, 9, 9) 

Coming in at just under 11 mil makes Daryl the second highest paid starting right tackle. I think that's a fair spot to put him at given he's coming off an injury. He'll come in and start at right tackle allowing us to look to upgrade the guard position (Wyatt Teller moreso than Spencer Long) in the draft.

  • Comparable contracts at similar position: Lane Johnson, 29 (11.25 AAV) ; Ricky Wagner, 29 (9.5 AAV)

 

Mitch Morse, C – 3 years, $27 million ; AAV: 9 mil - (contract breakdown 10, 9, 8)

The final big signing of the offseason is our starting signal caller on the line, Mitch Morse. With an average annual value of 9 million, Morse's deal puts him in the top 10 at the position. I think we ultimately have to overpay given the market, but I feel Morse's versatility is an added value, plus he's younger than some of the other options out there being just 27 years old. 

  • Comparable contracts at similar position: Alex Mack, 33 (11.25 AAV) ; Rodney Hudson, 29 (8.9 AAV)

 

Dwayne Allen, TE – 1 years, $4 million

Already rumored to be a visitor to OBD, Allen provides us a sound blocking TE. Cheap, short-term deal that could pay off for both parties.

 

Kareem Jackson, CB – 2 years, $12 million (contract breakdown 7, 5)

Jackson is 31 so a short-term deal is ideal. He's had his ups and downs with the Texans, but with Levi Wallace playing really well, hopefully Jackson will just come in as a nice depth option and won't have to start unless Wallace begins to struggle. 

After these bigger name signings, with the way I structured the contracts (front-loaded to give us some freedom in the future - i.e. re-signing Tre' White) spending 48 million on these guys in 2019, we'll still have plenty of funds to make some lower level depth signings if needed and sign our draft picks.

>>>> Est. Cap Space after FA Additions: ~$29,639,877 (wow, still plenty!) <<<<

  

2019 NFL Draft:

1. Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray, QB – Oklahoma (reluctantly accepting that this will happen)
2. San Francisco 49ers – Nick Bosa, EDGE – Ohio State
3. New York Jets – Josh Allen, EDGE – Kentucky
4. Oakland Raiders – Quinnen Williams, DL – Alabama
5. Tampa Bay Buccs – Devin White, LB – LSU
6. New York Giants – Dwayne Haskins, QB – Ohio State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – D.K. Metcalf, WR – Ole Miss
8. Detroit Lions – Montez Sweat, DE – Miss. State

*** We have a trade to announce... the Washington Redskins have acquired the 9th overall selection and pick 132 (4th Round) from the Buffalo Bills in exchange for the 15th overall selection, the 46th overall selection, and pick 97 (3rd Round). ***

9. Washington Redskins (via BUF) – Drew Lock, QB – Missouri
10. Denver Broncos – Ed Oliver, DT – Houston
11. Cincinnati Bengals – Jawaan Taylor, OT – Florida
12. Green Bay Packers – Clelin Ferrell, DE – Clemson
13. Miami Dolphins – Christian Wilkins, DT – Clemson
14. Atlanta Falcons – Rashan Gary, DE – Michigan

15. Buffalo Bills (via WAS) – T.J. Hockenson, TE – Iowa

Free agency shaped my offseason allowing the Bills to go after playmakers and prioritize BPA versus forcing our hand by taking offensive line early. T.J. Hockenson is an excellent blocker and tested really well in all areas athletically at the combine, further proving he can be a top level dual threat tight end.  

*** We have ANOTHER trade to announce... the Buffalo Bills have acquired the 34th overall selection from the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for the 46th overall selection, and pick 97 (both picks acquired in the trade down with Washington). ***

34. Buffalo Bills (via IND) – Kelvin Harmon, WR – N.C. State

I have us packaging the picks we acquired from the Washington trade down in round one to move up and snag a first round caliber WR in Kelvin Harmon. I am not overly excited about getting players such as Marquise Brown or Paris Campbell at pick 46 (potentially). Harmon is a big bodied X WR with the size we covet at the position and the hands we need to catch Allen's rockets. If we were to stay put, Deebo Samuel would be a good option, but again, not someone I'm overly excited about. 

40. Buffalo Bills – Dalton Risner, OL – Kansas State

Risner is my new favorite offensive line prospect in the entire draft. Should he fall here, which is unfortunately beginning to look less and less likely, we have to take him. He offers versatility to play pretty much any spot on the line. Given how the offseason has played out, he will slot in at left or right guard for us. 

75. Buffalo Bills – Zach Allen, DE – Boston College

113. Buffalo Bills – DeMarkus Lodge, WR – Ole Miss

148: Buffalo Bills – Miles Sanders, RB – Penn State

159: Buffalo Bills Daniel Wise, iDL – Kansas

182: Buffalo Bills – Greg Gaines, iDL – Washington

227: Buffalo Bills – Iman Marshall, CB – USC

230: Buffalo Bills – Jake Bailey, P – Stanford

 

Projected Depth Chart (Not Exact 53 Man):

QB: Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Derek Anderson

RB: LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Marcus Murphy, Keith Ford

FB: Patrick DiMarco

X-WR: Kelvin Harmon, Duke Williams

Z-WR: Robert Foster, DeMarkus Lodge

Y-WR (Slot): Zay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Ray-Ray McCloud

TE: TJ Hockenson, Dwayne Allen, Jason Croom, Logan Thomas

LT: Dion Dawkins, Conor McDermott

LG: Dalton Risner, Wyatt Teller

C: Mitch Morse

RG: Spencer Long, Jeremiah Sirles

RT: Daryl Williams

 

RE: Jerry Hughes, Zach Allen

1T:  Star Lotulelei, Greg Gaines

3T: Jordan Phillips, Harrison Phillips, Daniel Wise

LE: Shaq Lawson, Trent Murphy

WLB: Matt Milano, Corey Thompson

ILB: Tremaine Edmunds, Julian Stanford

SLB: Anthony Barr, Lorenzo Alexander, Deon Lacy 

LCB: Tre’Davious White, Lafayette Pitts

NCB: Taron Johnson, Iman Marshall

RCB: Levi Wallace, Kareem Jackson, Ryan Lewis

FS: Jordan Poyer, Siran Neal, Dean Marlowe

SS: Micah Hyde, Rafael Bush

 

LS: Reid Ferguson

K: Stephen Hauschka

P: Jake Bailey

KR/PR: Isaiah McKenzie / Iman Marshall

Edited by NickChowaniec

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Great off season 

If we sign Darryl Williams than we aren't drafting Dalton Risner and 0% chance Zach Allen slips to 75

In your mock i'd much rather Erik McCoy or Chris Lindstrom who both project as day 1 starters in the middle of the OL. Risner is gonna be a NFL OT

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My issue with the is I don't think we got Josh Allen the right weapons. There are so many receivers I would prefer over Harmon. Hakeem Butler, Hollywood Brown, Parris Campbell, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, NKeal Harry, and AJ Brown.

Believe we need to add speed and would love to add Marquise Brown to the team.

Also I think Emanuel Hall would be a receiver we can add later. Big play deep threat guy that Josh Allen would love.

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46 minutes ago, BillsGuy82 said:

Great off season 

If we sign Darryl Williams than we aren't drafting Dalton Risner and 0% chance Zach Allen slips to 75

In your mock i'd much rather Erik McCoy or Chris Lindstrom who both project as day 1 starters in the middle of the OL. Risner is gonna be a NFL OT

Think you need to scout Risner more (don’t take that personally haha). He’s actually a better fit inside, described as “failsafe” there. He CAN play RT doesn’t mean he is best there.

I went for EDGE in round 3, Zach Allen May end up being gone but replace him with whoever is BPA there at that position.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, NickChowaniec said:

Think you need to scout Risner more (don’t take that personally haha). He’s actually a better fit inside, described as “failsafe” there. He CAN play RT doesn’t mean he is best there.

I went for EDGE in round 3, Zach Allen May end up being gone but replace him with whoever is BPA there at that position.

Allen would be a great get at 75 and trust me i'm on the Risner train as well, but if you're talking Guard play, I think Chris Lindstrom would be the better OG prospect. That's my opinion

That defense is absolutely loaded with those additions lol

Edited by BillsGuy82

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29 minutes ago, marshawn lynch said:

My issue with the is I don't think we got Josh Allen the right weapons. There are so many receivers I would prefer over Harmon. Hakeem Butler, Hollywood Brown, Parris Campbell, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, NKeal Harry, and AJ Brown.

Believe we need to add speed and would love to add Marquise Brown to the team.

Also I think Emanuel Hall would be a receiver we can add later. Big play deep threat guy that Josh Allen would love.

You’re telling me you don’t think we have added good enough weapons with Hockenson, Harmon, Lodge and Sanders?

What are you expecting? Lol

I remember you being high on Harmon, oh well, may have mistaken you for someone else..

He’s the most polished WR in the draft that’s why I went for him. He also fits the X mold. Who will play there otherwise? Our speed threat has been Foster who has great chemistry with Allen. 

I think Hollywood Brown is going to be hurt often, he’s so small. His recent injury is one that concerns me. Want to stay away personally.

My top choice at WR is Harry but I feel like he’ll be the next guy taken after Metcalf. 

If I were to switch off Harmon I’d probably lean towards JJ Arcega-Whiteside as far as someone who may actually be there. 

I do love Hall as a 3rd round or later option if we choose to address a different position in round 2.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, BillsGuy82 said:

Allen would be a great get at 75 and trust me i'm on the Risner train as well, but if you're talking Guard play, I think Chris Lindstrom would be the better OG prospect. That's my opinion

That defense is absolutely loaded with those additions lol

I agree, I have him going late first though. Top guard in draft.

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3 minutes ago, NickChowaniec said:

You’re telling me you don’t think we have added good enough weapons with Hockenson, Harmon, Lodge and Sanders?

What are you expecting? Lol

I remember you being high on Harmon, oh well, may have mistaken you for someone else..

He’s the most polished WR in the draft that’s why I went for him. He also fits the X mold. Who will play there otherwise? Our speed threat has been Foster who has great chemistry with Allen. 

I think Hollywood Brown is going to be hurt often, he’s so small. His recent injury is one that concerns me. Want to stay away personally.

My top choice at WR is Harry but I feel like he’ll be the next guy taken after Metcalf. 

If I were to switch off Harmon I’d probably lean towards JJ Arcega-Whiteside as far as someone who may actually be there. 

I do love Hall as a 3rd round or later option if we choose to address a different position in round 2.

 

 

I think we need a guy with a large catching radius over another burner. You gave us 2 with Hockenson and Harmon, we went from poor to rich imo if those 2 work out here

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Love the free agency. Very realistic IMO.

Love the trade back and selection of Hockenson. I think Risner goes round one and plays RT in the league. He dominated there at the Senior Bowl. I would actually prefer Parris Campbell. He has the speed that Allen likes and a very nice catch radius which is more important than height. Harmon is a solid choice but I wouldn't be shocked if he slips because of his 40 time.

I like that you filled out depth for the defense and added a potential future RB1 in Sanders. You and I both have strong feelings for Lodge and I love it lol. I also like that you have Foster as the Flanker in your depth chart. He deserves a shot to start the year there and likely will if we add an X like Harmon or Metcalf

 

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59 minutes ago, NickChowaniec said:

You’re telling me you don’t think we have added good enough weapons with Hockenson, Harmon, Lodge and Sanders?

What are you expecting? Lol

I remember you being high on Harmon, oh well, may have mistaken you for someone else..

He’s the most polished WR in the draft that’s why I went for him. He also fits the X mold. Who will play there otherwise? Our speed threat has been Foster who has great chemistry with Allen. 

I think Hollywood Brown is going to be hurt often, he’s so small. His recent injury is one that concerns me. Want to stay away personally.

My top choice at WR is Harry but I feel like he’ll be the next guy taken after Metcalf. 

If I were to switch off Harmon I’d probably lean towards JJ Arcega-Whiteside as far as someone who may actually be there. 

I do love Hall as a 3rd round or later option if we choose to address a different position in round 2.

 

 

I do like Harmon. I have cooled on him a little because on tape he looks faster than a 4.6 guy. However there is a place for him in the NFL. I just don't a good fit with us. Lack of speed killed us spacing wise last year and with Josh arm I'd loved to have a guy like Foster at X and Brown at the Y. With Zay in the slot. Zay and Hockenson could handle everything in 5-15 yards range and Foster/Brown will take the top off the defense together. Could really make our offensive explode.

I think Butler will be the 2nd WR off the board. I think there is a chance he will be there but I think Harry is falling a bit which is making Butler look like clear #2.

Also an interesting way to go would be to sign Adam Humphries and draft DK Metcalf. Adding Humphries would be only way I'm comfortable drafting DK. Cause at least if Metcalf busts and just stays a deep threat then we have Adam to fall back on who will just catch everything.

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You have the bills tendering Logan Thomas they are saying its a 3 mil not 1.2 from what I have read. Anyways I do not see the bills investing that much money in to the position. Having 4 TE are unlikely. If i had to pick I would say move on from Logan Thomas. Also word is the bills are pushing hard for Paradis so I would assume he is the center over morse unless someone comes in and overspends. I think you are overspending on Barr but it hits a long term need. As for Jackson Im not sure I want to invest 12 mil on a guy who is one concussion away from retirement. I would expect a 1 year 3-4 mil deal. Dwayne Allen is another guy, I dont mind the signing but the bills let him leave Buffalo without a contract as his next stop is Detroit. I could see them sticking with the original plan of pursuing Jesse James. All in all not bad hits most of the needs the bills have and should set up a good foundation for the future. If Risner can play both inside and outside on oline then he is definitely worth the pick up, just not sure he can. If they drafted him I think its a sign that they want to move dawkins back inside.

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1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

You have the bills tendering Logan Thomas they are saying its a 3 mil not 1.2 from what I have read. Anyways I do not see the bills investing that much money in to the position. Having 4 TE are unlikely. If i had to pick I would say move on from Logan Thomas. Also word is the bills are pushing hard for Paradis so I would assume he is the center over morse unless someone comes in and overspends. I think you are overspending on Barr but it hits a long term need. As for Jackson Im not sure I want to invest 12 mil on a guy who is one concussion away from retirement. I would expect a 1 year 3-4 mil deal. Dwayne Allen is another guy, I dont mind the signing but the bills let him leave Buffalo without a contract as his next stop is Detroit. I could see them sticking with the original plan of pursuing Jesse James. All in all not bad hits most of the needs the bills have and should set up a good foundation for the future. If Risner can play both inside and outside on oline then he is definitely worth the pick up, just not sure he can. If they drafted him I think its a sign that they want to move dawkins back inside.

I hope we can get Paradis, but nothing is guaranteed just because we're interested (I'm sure you know). I did the bulk of this write-up/offseason before the reports of our interest came out anyways. I still think Morse is a very possible addition and would actually prefer him because he'll cost less and is younger. He also has experience playing every spot on the line, something our staff has mentioned has additional value. Either way, I'm hoping we bring in one of those two. 

Jesse James would be a great pick-up in place of Allen, albeit a more costly one. He definitely offers more than Allen can in the passing game. 

 

Drafting Risner means very little for Dawkins starting position. Several scouting reports have Risner as someone who can play every spot, but should be playing right tackle or inside.

I and many others think he'll be a pro bowl caliber guard–which we need and that's why I picked him. I highly doubt whichever guy we draft will be playing left tackle or force Dawkins inside. The majority of the tackles in this draft are better fit to plug and play at right tackle. Fine with me because that's what we need anyways. Doesn't mean they can't switch to the left after some seasoning (Jawaan Taylor or Jonah Williams are the best example for that scenario).

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1 hour ago, NickChowaniec said:

I hope we can get Paradis, but nothing is guaranteed just because we're interested (I'm sure you know). I did the bulk of this write-up/offseason before the reports of our interest came out anyways. I still think Morse is a very possible addition and would actually prefer him because he'll cost less and is younger. He also has experience playing every spot on the line, something our staff has mentioned has additional value. Either way, I'm hoping we bring in one of those two. 

Jesse James would be a great pick-up in place of Allen, albeit a more costly one. He definitely offers more than Allen can in the passing game. 

 

Drafting Risner means very little for Dawkins starting position. Several scouting reports have Risner as someone who can play every spot, but should be playing right tackle or inside.

I and many others think he'll be a pro bowl caliber guard–which we need and that's why I picked him. I highly doubt whichever guy we draft will be playing left tackle or force Dawkins inside. The majority of the tackles in this draft are better fit to plug and play at right tackle. Fine with me because that's what we need anyways. Doesn't mean they can't switch to the left after some seasoning (Jawaan Taylor or Jonah Williams are the best example for that scenario).

If Risner plays inside im all for it. Same thing with Morse or Paradis, i prefer paradis but wouldnt complain if they land one of them.

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