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soflbillsfan

My Last Mock before the Offseason starts

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Posted (edited)

Well the bills have been some what active between re-signing players and bringing in guys for visits before Free Agency Frenzy begins.

We already know that we Signed/Re-Signed/Tendered:
Spencer Long
Eddie Yarborough
Jordan Phillips
Duke Williams

Bills are currently around 74 million

I expect them to continue the cutting process and letting go of the following people
Russel Bodine clearing 2.3 Mil
Vlad Ducasse clearing 2 Mil
Putting them back at 78 million in cap space

Free Agency Starts:
Daryl Williams RT 4 years 40 mil with 25 guaranteed out in 2 years (avg 10 mil)
Matt Paradis Center 5 years 55 million 27.5 mil in guaranteed, highest paid center in the league (avg 11 mil)
Jesse James TE 3 years 21 mil, 10 Guaranteed he has worked well with the blocking side of protecting the qb and this will open up the run game for shady (avg 7 mil)
John Brown WR 3 years 24 mil, 16 Guaranteed (avg 8 mil)
Bradley Robey CB 2 years 20 mil 8 guaranteed, this is essentially a 1 year prove it deal (10 mil avg) he was due 8 mil on his 5th year option but Broncos declined it yet he manages to make that money and prove his worth for the bills.
 

Beane has been stating since the combine that he wants to balance the team out more and improve the offense this is how he gets it done. All said and done the bills spent 46 mil giving them around 28 mil in cap space.

Draft:
Bills trade pick 9 to the Cleveland Brown for Kevin Zeitler RG and pick 17. Beane makes a move like he did with Cincy, but instead of moving up he moves back while landing a top tier Guard in the process. Browns then turn around and trade pick 9 to the New York Giants along with a 4th round pick to land Odel Beckham Jr. Bills will now be on the hook for the remaining balance of 3 years 36 million. 3.9 mil guaranteed. 10 mil cap hit this year. Putting the bills now at 18 mil in cap space to spend. 

Pick 17 TJ Hockenson TE Iowa (2.3 mil cap hit) "He's already a sound in-line blocker with the toughness to sustain and finish. His above-average athleticism and separation burst will help him win against linebackers while his body control and hands give him an advantage over safeties."
Pick 40 N'Keal Harry WR ASU (1.3 mil) once coveted as a top WR prospect in the draft he is available for the bills at pick 40

Pick 74 and 112 Bills trade for pick 55 from the Houston Texans. Bills Select Chris Lindstrom OG BC (918k) Bills add depth to the oline setting the bills up on oline for years to come.
Pick 131 Christian Miller DE Bama (656k)
Pick 147 Bryce Love RB Stanford (575k), the bills find the future RB as they hope Love turns back time and plays like he did in 2017
Pick 158 Khalil Hodge LB at UB (570k), Bills add depth and hope this could be a sleeper like Milano
Pick 181 Daylon Mack DL TAMU (540k)
Pick 225 Mike Edwards S Kentucky (519k)
Pick 228 Nyquan Murray WR FSU (518k)

After the draft the bills are currently with around 10.5 Mil to roll over or use through out the season 

QB Josh Allen/Matt Barkley/ Derek Anderson
RB Shady McCoy/Chris Ivory/Bryce Love
WR: Zay Jones, Robert Foster, Josh Brown, N'Keal Harry, Isiah Mckenzie, Nyquan Murray, Duke Williams
TE: Jesse James, Tj Hockenson, Jason Croom
LT: Dion Dawkins
LG: Wyatt Teller/Chris Lindstrom
Center: Matt Paradis/Spencer Long
RG: Kevin Zeitler/Spencer Long
RT: Daryl Williams/Conor McDermott

I only did the offense as that was the main focus of this offseason as majority of the bills defense is intact and should still be a top 5 defense moving forward as they only lost Kyle Williams in the starting lineup. The 2 positions on defense to watch for is CB2 Levi Wallace vs Bradley Robey, and Jordan Phillips vs Harrison Phillips to replace Kyle Williams. Ideally adding another OT to the mix could be done but all in all this was my vision of how the bills can build for the future and be a contender this year. There are a few high contracts but with reasonable guarantees the bills will not shoot themselves in the foot if some players do not pan out the way they expect, and do not do like Whaley did in the past.

 

I based my picks on the rankings CBS has given as every website has players in a different spot and could be argued that they are to high or to low to be selected. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/

Edited by soflbillsfan

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I dont see the Bills investing that much in the OL.. 2 of Zeitler, Paradis and Williams is more realistic and than draft a day 1 starter in Lindstrom?

Don't like FA but love the draft.

 

 

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1 hour ago, BillsGuy82 said:

I dont see the Bills investing that much in the OL.. 2 of Zeitler, Paradis and Williams is more realistic and than draft a day 1 starter in Lindstrom?

Don't like FA but love the draft.

 

 

They have to spend the money, they are coming off a season with the 2-3rd best defense in the league and have 70+ million to spend. I dont think spending 30-40 mil on oline is an issue considering Josh Allen is on his rookie contract and they can get away with paying that much. Even with all these moves they will have 60+ million in free agency next year so the money has to be invested in something this year as they have to reach the floor minimum. Not to mention Zeitler could receive a new contract after the year as the bills wouldnt have any guaranteed money and they could give him more guarantees and knock the overall price down. 

If the bills went with this and had 60+ mil next offseason, they have Shady, Ivory, Shaq, Lorenzo, hughes, Jordan, foster and wallace as Free Agents. I belive both foster and Levi would be tagged on the ERFA as they would be in the league less then 3 years which is not much money (1-3 mil max). If they wanted long term they could but they dont have to give it to them. Ivory, and Shady are likely gone just because of age, I could see them bringing Shady back but it would be 3 mil or less. Shaq and Jordan are going to either ball out and get long term extensions or be cut. Realistically I do not see Shaq Lawson coming back unless he some how gets double digit sacks this year. Resigning hughes is likely going to happen and its going to probably be the 10-12 mil range which leaves the bills with plenty of cap space left next year. So even if they decided to pay shady 3 mil, tag both wallace and foster, pay hughes 12 mil, pay shaq 10 mil, jordan 10 mil. that puts the bills at 20+ million and again this is being generous with the numbers for these guys. Building and paying top money for oline means that the bills will be able to plug any rb back there if its a strong oline just look at the steelers with Connor, Deangelo williams, leveon bell all those guys produced behind that line. Gives Allen ample time to throw to his weapons... So i am not sure where you want the bills to spend the money if you do not think investing that much money on the oline this year and they have to spend it?

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I like it a lot. I think the free agency is realistic as well as the trade back. I know you used the prospect raking but I think Lindstrom has a chance to go round 1. Would be shocked if he fell to round 3.

I also think adding a Tackle prospect later in the draft would be more prudent then a S or 7th round wideout. JMO.

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Just now, Trentwannabe said:

I like it a lot. I think the free agency is realistic as well as the trade back. I know you used the prospect raking but I think Lindstrom has a chance to go round 1. Would be shocked if he fell to round 3.

I also think adding a Tackle prospect later in the draft would be more prudent then a S or 7th round wideout. JMO.

I had the bills trading back up to the 2nd rd for Lindstrom at pick 55, its a possibility he goes in the 1st rd but i have hiim as the 6th/7th olineman in the draft so i would be surprised if that many go in the 1st rd with it predominantly defensive in rankings that early....Yea i wouldnt be surprised if they go with an OT instead of either of the 7th rd picks and possibly 5th or 6th rd picks. I just wanted to hit some players depth at those positions as the bills need it. 

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Posted (edited)

I really like this offseason. If this comes to fruition I will be happy. I am all about adding as much talent to our o line by any means necessary and your mock definitely did that. My only concern is we didn't really add a 3 tech. I think this is a big need. Also I think that people want to address every need this year, but I think we have too many holes to fill in just one offseason. I think next year is the year we can truly be playoff contenders and win 10-11 games. If we have to neglect one position of need I would choose WR. The draft and FA class don't really have a lot of legit #1 WR. I think if we add some more talent to the WR group and beef up our o line I think we can get away with waiting another year to add a true #1 WR for Josh Allen.

Edited by Billsfaninptown

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17 hours ago, Billsfaninptown said:

I really like this offseason. If this comes to fruition I will be happy. I am all about adding as much talent to our o line by any means necessary and your mock definitely did that. My only concern is we didn't really add a 3 tech. I think this is a big need. Also I think that people want to address every need this year, but I think we have too many holes to fill in just one offseason. I think next year is the year we can truly be playoff contenders and win 10-11 games. If we have to neglect one position of need I would choose WR. The draft and FA class don't really have a lot of legit #1 WR. I think if we add some more talent to the WR group and beef up our o line I think we can get away with waiting another year to add a true #1 WR for Josh Allen.

It would be nice to have a #1 wr but i dont think the bills need to get one even after this whole AB thing. If they can land these 2 guys in FA and draft i think a few decent weapons would allow Allen to improve. If they can beef up the oline in my mock, then they can be contenders this year. Not saying they win the division but I could see them getting to 9-10 wins if the defense holds up like last year. Ideally next offseason they can focus on the dline and getting that organized with a few long term question marks such as Lorenzo Alexander, DT and pass rush positions as the bills will only have 3 players signed on the front 4 Star, Harrison Phillips, and Trent Murphy. They will likely have 60+ million to fill those holes and all of their draft picks. If they go this mock offseason DT, DE 1 and 2, RB #2 and SLB will be the only needs the bills will have holes in without resigning hughes.

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Well my mock just got debunked with the browns trading Zeitler to the Giants for Oliver Vernor. 

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10 hours ago, BillsGuy82 said:

How we looking in the Daryl Williams sweepstakes? Any more word ?

nothing yet, Beane and Mcdermott are tight lipped about everything since coming to buffalo so I expect us to not know what is going on until the deal is done or he signs with another team.

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