New Forum - New Random

[N4L]

13 hours ago, Forge said:

Bosa is good value. He wouldn't be my favorite to win the award, that would likely be one of the Devin's, but I agree that I think that you can largely rule out guys like QW and Oliver as interior rushers almost never win the award. Secondary guys need to have significant impact and I think it's harder for them to get the sexy stats such as INTs, and corner in particular is not an easy position to try and transition to. Much harder for them. I think in the last 20 years, only 3 have won DROY. It's almost always a linebacker or pass rusher. I think it's just easier for linebackers to transition, both Devin's are guaranteed starting spots, and it's easier for that position to fool people into thinking that they are good (chase tackles). 

He is barely behind White as far as the payout goes. White was like +702 and Bosa was +727 and Bush was like +750. I actually covered the bosa risk with a small one on White that will basically make it break even if he wins. I really think those are the only two guys who you can say are 'more than likely' to be in the final few considered. 

13 hours ago, Forge said:

Deebo is good for a flyer, nothing more in my opinion. Very little chance that he wins the award. Every now and again, you get a rookie wide receiver who balls out, but for the most part it still takes a receiver time to acclimate, despite the 2014 draft trying to convince us otherwise. You still have guys that come in and perform at a very high level of course, it's just not the norm. Michael Thomas was about the only one in 16. Juju and Kupp were the top to in 17 I think, and neither hit 1000 yards. In 2015 you had Cooper, and he was a top 5 prospect in that draft and he barely hit 1000 yards. I think a good rookie season for Deebo will be 800 yards and a few touchdowns, and I don't think that's going to be enough to really combat for the award, particularly if both Murray and Haskins start the season as starters. Then there's Josh Jacobs, who should almost be a lot for 1400-1500 YFS

would you agree that he is a very polished, pro ready player? I mean, he did play in the SEC for multiple years and did have stretches of dominance on a sub-par team. Kyle obviously doesnt trust any of the WRs on our roster, or he wouldnt have made WR a priority this offseason. I think he is a day one starter on a good offense. Doesnt seem to be a lot of holes in his game other than 'catch radius' which should not be an issue with the sharpshooter we have playing QB. Its a really natural fit and I think he will be a huge part of our offense next year. I am banking on us being in contention late and perhaps getting flexed into SNF late in the season against the hawks or rams. The exposure will help. 

11 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Best bet for OROY is always a QB who will get on the field early or a RB. Samuel pick is essentially a waste of money

Its all about value. As long as the payout is good enough, it can be worth a wager. Its basically 20/1 odds. 

IMO he is one of 6 guys I could realistically see winning. Murray, Haskins, Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders, Deebo. Everyone else either wont get the playing time or wont get the exposure imo. 

If he stays healthy, he could put up some monster stats in this offense. Everyone is going to key on Kittle next year, and Jimmy loves to work the middle of the field. Deebo's style fits in here and hes never had a talented QB throwing him the ball. Hes very polished already, the learning curve for him should be minimal. The guy seems to have a great motor. he is a day one starter on a (hopefully) high scoring offense. 

It about making sure the payout is worth the risk. Lots of risk to be sure. I am more worried about Haskins than I am of Murray. I think for a rookie QB to win your team has to win a lot of games to get the award. None of those running backs will get enough carries imo. I think it could be a rare year where it goes to a non qb, non running back because there wasnt an elite RB and the QBs all have question marks. 

That was the reasoning behind it, at least. 

The BOSA bet feels more achievable, and almost probable, and I put 3x on it to make the payouts basically the same. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

would you agree that he is a very polished, pro ready player?

Not really. Maybe one of the more polished in this class? Sure, I think that's probably fair. But this draft wasn't particularly top heavy in that regard, and sometimes, you really don't need to be polished. Sometimes the freak athletic traits are enough to get it done. LIS, if he hits 800 yards this year, I'm pretty happy. If he hits 900, which I doubt happens right now (will know more throughout the off season), I'm ecstatic. Typically wide receivers simply don't transition off the charts well in their rookie year. Julio was a far, far, far superior prospect to Deebo, thrust into a very similar situation - immediate starter (#2), good team, good offense...he didn't even break 1000 yards his rookie season. Sure, you do have receivers that transition very well immediately at the next level, but it isn't super common, at least not with regards to eye popping numbers, so I'm not really going to expect it to happen here. It's not impossible, I just think the chances are highly nominal. 

Hollywood Brown will be an immediate starter in Baltimore. He could very easily have a season similar to AJ Green in 2011 when the team only threw for like 3400 yards but he caught like a third of the receiving yardage. DK Metcalf could win that second receiver spot in Seattle. Hardman could be a great impact if the Chiefs are forced to play without Hill. Don't be surprised if some rando 6 or 7th rounder comes out of nowhere Phillip Lindsey style either. 

It's just one of those bets I throw down like $5 or $10 on and say why not about. 

[y2lamanaki]

OBJ is the only WR in the past decade to win rookie of the year, and that was in a year where the only rookie QB to start a full 16 games was Derek Carr (decent rookie year, but under 60% passing) and the RB with the most career rushing yards from that class is Devonta Freeman who had fewer than 300 yards his rookie year. The #2 from that class was Carlos Hyde.

In other words, it was the perfect storm for a WR to even be considered, and that WR was OBJ with 1300 yards and 12 TDs. Not in my wildest dreams does Deebo have those kind of numbers (and I am very happy with Deebo). And Murray is going to start 16 games. Haskins might start 16 games. Even as far as WRs on good offenses with a great QB and few other options go that might start 16 games, N'Keal Harry went to New England. 

It would be pretty miraculous if Deebo wins. Similar to Forge, if he merely doubles the production of our top wide receiver last year, I will be ecstatic. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

2 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

OBJ is the only WR in the past decade to win rookie of the year, and that was in a year where the only rookie QB to start a full 16 games was Derek Carr (decent rookie year, but under 60% passing) and the RB with the most career rushing yards from that class is Devonta Freeman who had fewer than 300 yards his rookie year. The #2 from that class was Carlos Hyde.

In other words, it was the perfect storm for a WR to even be considered, and that WR was OBJ with 1300 yards and 12 TDs. Not in my wildest dreams does Deebo have those kind of numbers (and I am very happy with Deebo). And Murray is going to start 16 games. Haskins might start 16 games. Even as far as WRs on good offenses with a great QB and few other options go that might start 16 games, N'Keal Harry went to New England. 

It would be pretty miraculous if Deebo wins. Similar to Forge, if he merely doubles the production of our top wide receiver last year, I will be ecstatic. 

Hence while it seems like a "value" bet, it's nothing but a complete waste of money. When people are suckered into value bets like this one, how often do they end up hitting that value bet?  You're just giving away money at that point. 

[Forge]

24 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Hence while it seems like a "value" bet, it's nothing but a complete waste of money. When people are suckered into value bets like this one, how often do they end up hitting that value bet?  You're just giving away money at that point. 

You never know. I mean, the amount of people who won a butt load of cash here with regards to the Golden Knights' inaugural season I know is pretty ridiculous. They had ridiculous odds as an expansion team to win the cup, and I know a ton of people who threw down a nominal amount of cash on that and came away with a nice chunk of change after hedging in the final. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

You never know. I mean, the amount of people who won a butt load of cash here with regards to the Golden Knights' inaugural season I know is pretty ridiculous. They had ridiculous odds as an expansion team to win the cup, and I know a ton of people who threw down a nominal amount of cash on that and came away with a nice chunk of change after hedging in the final. 

Okay cool, props to them and others who have hit on those value picks.

But majority of the time...Aka 99% of the time, they never end up hitting. Samuel isn't the guy in terms of value I would put money on.

 

[Forge]

11 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Okay cool, props to them and others who have hit on those value picks.

But majority of the time...Aka 99% of the time, they never end up hitting. Samuel isn't the guy in terms of value I would put money on.

 

Sure but he's getting better odds than that, so even if he only does hit 1 out of every 100, he actually makes money lol. I don't mind these type of plays from a $5 / $10 standpoint. Not bets that I personally make, but I understand the appeal of them. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

41 minutes ago, Forge said:

Sure but he's getting better odds than that, so even if he only does hit 1 out of every 100, he actually makes money lol. I don't mind these type of plays from a $5 / $10 standpoint. Not bets that I personally make, but I understand the appeal of them. 

You understand the appeal of losing money?? Of course you do!!! That's why you moved to Vegas huh????

Fine, if it is $5 dollar bet with those odds then no problem l

[Forge]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

You understand the appeal of losing money?? Of course you do!!! That's why you moved to Vegas huh????

Fine, if it is $5 dollar bet with those odds then no problem l

It comes down to math, that's all. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

22 minutes ago, Forge said:

It comes down to math, that's all. 

Tell me when math works out for you and you actually make money off those bets

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Tell me when math works out for you and you actually make money off those bets

I don't make those bets, but again, if the math works right just once, you're largely a positive bettor in those type of bets. 

For me, the odds aren't bad enough to warrant any type of bet on Deebo. If it were like 100 to 1, I probably have no problem making that bet. But that's isn't the odds. He got 20:1 basically, and I think that Deebo has less than a 5% chance of winning ROY, which makes the bet a negative EV play for me. 

[AustrianNiner]

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/christmas/food-drink/mcdonalds-austria-restaurants-us-embassy-travel-tourists-a8913411.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

That's just....LOL

[N4L]

On 5/13/2019 at 10:16 AM, Forge said:

I don't make those bets, but again, if the math works right just once, you're largely a positive bettor in those type of bets. 

For me, the odds aren't bad enough to warrant any type of bet on Deebo. If it were like 100 to 1, I probably have no problem making that bet. But that's isn't the odds. He got 20:1 basically, and I think that Deebo has less than a 5% chance of winning ROY, which makes the bet a negative EV play for me. 

see, I think he has closer to a 10-15% chance based on my fake numbers that I made up to make myself feel better

I got incredible value, clearly

[Forge]

1 minute ago, N4L said:

see, I think he has closer to a 10-15% chance based on my fake numbers that I made up to make myself feel better

I got incredible value, clearly

lol and in fairness, that is the tough part of that, because unlike poker, where i have actual math to back up a call / raise / fold, the percentages we are talking about are very subjective. So you are absolutely correct - if you view it as a 15% chance, you did get amazing value. 

[Hunter2_1]

Would you say most Niner fans (in USA) are from/live in the Bay Area, or is it one of those clubs where most supporters are countrywide?

Edited May 15, 2019 by Hunter2_1