Possible Trade-Back Scenarios

[Nastradamus]

On ‎3‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 11:11 PM, Rockcity2 said:

Pittsburgh gonnI think a trade up with us for either Metcalf or TJ

I think they'd only move on White

[Just Want A Title]

I saw this a few minutes ago:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-ranking-the-10-trade-scenarios-that-make-the-most-sense-in-round-1/

 

7. Lions move back, maybe even way back

The Lions did a good job addressing key needs in free agency, picking up Trey Flowers, Justin Coleman and Jesse James but also several solid players up and down the roster. But the positions that make the most sense addressing with their first pick would be reaches for any of the talent available. Do they grab secondary help? Well, many don't project any defensive backs to go in the top 20. Do they lock in another guard to boost the offensive line? That's a reach in the top 10 as well. Adding a defensive lineman like Montez Sweat or Rashan Gary seems like the most likely scenario if they stay put, but that also means a lesser role for Romeo Okwaraafter amassing 7.5 sacks and signing an extension this offseason.

So I would expect the Lions to be working the phones to engineer a move back. It could be with the Bengals (as covered above), or with the Falcons if they're in love with Ed Oliver. But I'd set my sights even further down in the first round. Getting No. 24 and 35 from the Raiders so Oakland can come up and get a second impact defender would be solid value. So would getting No. 26 and 34 from the Colts, who could also use a difference maker like Oliver or Sweat. And that's a much better range for the Lions to grab a corner like Byron Murphy plus add a top guard at the top of the second round. Add a safety with their original second-round pick (and there should be good value at the position at that point) and this will be an A-grade draft for Detroit.

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

I saw this a few minutes ago:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-ranking-the-10-trade-scenarios-that-make-the-most-sense-in-round-1/

 

7. Lions move back, maybe even way back

The Lions did a good job addressing key needs in free agency, picking up Trey Flowers, Justin Coleman and Jesse James but also several solid players up and down the roster. But the positions that make the most sense addressing with their first pick would be reaches for any of the talent available. Do they grab secondary help? Well, many don't project any defensive backs to go in the top 20. Do they lock in another guard to boost the offensive line? That's a reach in the top 10 as well. Adding a defensive lineman like Montez Sweat or Rashan Gary seems like the most likely scenario if they stay put, but that also means a lesser role for Romeo Okwaraafter amassing 7.5 sacks and signing an extension this offseason.

So I would expect the Lions to be working the phones to engineer a move back. It could be with the Bengals (as covered above), or with the Falcons if they're in love with Ed Oliver. But I'd set my sights even further down in the first round. Getting No. 24 and 35 from the Raiders so Oakland can come up and get a second impact defender would be solid value. So would getting No. 26 and 34 from the Colts, who could also use a difference maker like Oliver or Sweat. And that's a much better range for the Lions to grab a corner like Byron Murphy plus add a top guard at the top of the second round. Add a safety with their original second-round pick (and there should be good value at the position at that point) and this will be an A-grade draft for Detroit.

I could see a scenario where the Lions trade back with a team like Atlanta and then trade further back - maybe with the Patriots, if Hockenson is sitting there. We also have a need at TE but it's possible the Pats move up and give future picks as part of the process as Brady is on borrowed time. There are many years where the Patriots trade down but there have been years where they've traded up or traded picks for players. It's doubtful that Hockenson would be there at #32.

[detroitroar]

21 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

I saw this a few minutes ago:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-ranking-the-10-trade-scenarios-that-make-the-most-sense-in-round-1/

 

7. Lions move back, maybe even way back

The Lions did a good job addressing key needs in free agency, picking up Trey Flowers, Justin Coleman and Jesse James but also several solid players up and down the roster. But the positions that make the most sense addressing with their first pick would be reaches for any of the talent available. Do they grab secondary help? Well, many don't project any defensive backs to go in the top 20. Do they lock in another guard to boost the offensive line? That's a reach in the top 10 as well. Adding a defensive lineman like Montez Sweat or Rashan Gary seems like the most likely scenario if they stay put, but that also means a lesser role for Romeo Okwaraafter amassing 7.5 sacks and signing an extension this offseason.

So I would expect the Lions to be working the phones to engineer a move back. It could be with the Bengals (as covered above), or with the Falcons if they're in love with Ed Oliver. But I'd set my sights even further down in the first round. Getting No. 24 and 35 from the Raiders so Oakland can come up and get a second impact defender would be solid value. So would getting No. 26 and 34 from the Colts, who could also use a difference maker like Oliver or Sweat. And that's a much better range for the Lions to grab a corner like Byron Murphy plus add a top guard at the top of the second round. Add a safety with their original second-round pick (and there should be good value at the position at that point) and this will be an A-grade draft for Detroit.

I was thinking something like this myself and currently building a mock.

I'd be excited. 

[diehardlionfan]

I don’t buy the move way back theory. They aren’t going to miss on the opportunity to draft an immediate starter, potential all star. If they move more than two or three spots back I would be shocked. 

 

[Nastradamus]

15 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I don’t buy the move way back theory. They aren’t going to miss on the opportunity to draft an immediate starter, potential all star. If they move more than two or three spots back I would be shocked. 

 

The Patriots way is to "miss out" on the star for more depth and more lotto tickets

[Karnage84]

16 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I don’t buy the move way back theory. They aren’t going to miss on the opportunity to draft an immediate starter, potential all star. If they move more than two or three spots back I would be shocked. 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

The Patriots way is to "miss out" on the star for more depth and more lotto tickets

The belief is that they can throw in relatively good athletes into the scheme. This, with good coaching, should get them the result they're looking for. When you're looking at bust rates of 50% in the first round, the more chances you have the higher the probability that you'll get a few key guys at a low cost.

The Patriots haven't drafted this high in a long time though, so it will be interesting to see if the Lions follow that model when they have a chance at the top level talent.

[detroitlions72003]

20 hours ago, detroitroar said:

I was thinking something like this myself and currently building a mock.

I'd be excited. 

if they have Ed Oliver sitting in their in their laps and they trade back and don't atleast get a high 2nd rounder with a 1st then I would be ticked. If everything goes well Detroit shouldn't be drafting top 10 again for a long time

[diehardlionfan]

2 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

The Patriots way is to "miss out" on the star for more depth and more lotto tickets

I understand that and believe they would consider it if the team was at a higher level of play.

I will believe it when I see it simply because high end talent is so much cheaper on an entry level target.

Once Detroit has become a team that is in the playoffs every year I expect more of the larger trade back scenarios.

It will be an interesting draft.

[diehardlionfan]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

 

The belief is that they can throw in relatively good athletes into the scheme. This, with good coaching, should get them the result they're looking for. When you're looking at bust rates of 50% in the first round, the more chances you have the higher the probability that you'll get a few key guys at a low cost.

The Patriots haven't drafted this high in a long time though, so it will be interesting to see if the Lions follow that model when they have a chance at the top level talent.

This may be the Lions last chance at a top level talent. I would hope they don’t think they will be drafting this high again.🤠

What are the first round bust rates by draft position? Is the rate constant or is there a significant variation between a top 10 pick versus the balance of the round?

I think one of the considerations is the cost of signing top level free agents versus top talent on an entry level deal.

Of course it all goes out the window if players they target aren’t worth the pick.

I just can’t see them dropping significantly unless they get a ridiculous offer. 

 

[Rockcity2]

22 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

 

The belief is that they can throw in relatively good athletes into the scheme. This, with good coaching, should get them the result they're looking for. When you're looking at bust rates of 50% in the first round, the more chances you have the higher the probability that you'll get a few key guys at a low cost.

The Patriots haven't drafted this high in a long time though, so it will be interesting to see if the Lions follow that model when they have a chance at the top level talent.

If you pick a bust with this 8th pick you need fired... it should be lower than 50% in this draft for where we are picking...

He's gonna pass up some serious talent for a third round pick...  fn dumb

Trade out of the second if wanna trade just to trade or get something a lot better than a flippn 3rd

Edited April 16, 2019 by Rockcity2

[Sllim Pickens]

I'd be upset if we pass on Oliver for a trade down unless we get huge value.  A late 1st and a second are not huge enough IMO.  I would be more mad if we trade down and take two DBs and an O lineman in the 1st.  I want our D LIne to be beastly and control games.  Oliver would help that tremendously. 

[diehardlionfan]

55 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I'd be upset if we pass on Oliver for a trade down unless we get huge value.  A late 1st and a second are not huge enough IMO.  I would be more mad if we trade down and take two DBs and an O lineman in the 1st.  I want our D LIne to be beastly and control games.  Oliver would help that tremendously. 

I share the opinion about defence. I want a defence filled with big, fast, angry men. 

I think the Lions need to have an elite position grouping and I would prefer it be dline.

This could be the last chance for the Lions to add an elite talent without giving up huge trade value or big dollars on the free agency market.

[Karnage84]

2 hours ago, Rockcity2 said:

If you pick a bust with this 8th pick you need fired... it should be lower than 50% in this draft for where we are picking...

He's gonna pass up some serious talent for a third round pick...  fn dumb

Trade out of the second if wanna trade just to trade or get something a lot better than a flippn 3rd

According to Daniel Jeremiah (and execs he has spoken to), there are only 23 1st round graded players in this draft. That is 9 guys who will be drafted in the first who aren't graded to belong there. Then there will be situations like injuries, off-field matters, etc. PFF had Grady Jarrett as a 1st round guy in the 2015 draft. He was drafted in the 5th round. Not to toot the horn of PFF but it all comes down to how you evaluate certain guys. If you're hitting on 60% of your picks, you're going to be drafting at an elite level. You'd expect it to be much easier with top 10 guys but there are plenty of busts over the years.

 

[Rockcity2]

38 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I share the opinion about defence. I want a defence filled with big, fast, angry men. 

I think the Lions need to have an elite position grouping and I would prefer it be dline.

This could be the last chance for the Lions to add an elite talent without giving up huge trade value or big dollars on the free agency market.

That's my big thing... if your always drafting for need we will never have a strong position group and your always gonna be filling holes... you just can't have a perfect team..