Possible Trade-Back Scenarios

[Rockcity2]

22 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

According to Daniel Jeremiah (and execs he has spoken to), there are only 23 1st round graded players in this draft. That is 9 guys who will be drafted in the first who aren't graded to belong there. Then there will be situations like injuries, off-field matters, etc. PFF had Grady Jarrett as a 1st round guy in the 2015 draft. He was drafted in the 5th round. Not to toot the horn of PFF but it all comes down to how you evaluate certain guys. If you're hitting on 60% of your picks, you're going to be drafting at an elite level. You'd expect it to be much easier with top 10 guys but there are plenty of busts over the years.

 

Ok let's use 23... so trading down betters your odds how exactly? 

[Karnage84]

34 minutes ago, Rockcity2 said:

Ok let's use 23... so trading down betters your odds how exactly? 

You're adding extra picks in trading down = more opportunities to select players = better chance of hitting on a guy. If the hit rate is 50% and you have 4 picks, the likelihood is that you're going to walk away with 2 decent players and 2 busts. If you have 10 picks, you're likely to walk away with 5 players, etc. This also works when making multiple picks at the same position (which is another thing the Patriots do often). Ex. If you have a need at TE and you draft two guys, you've increased the chance that you're going to hit on at least one of those guys. You also can afford to take a risk on a player who might have character or injury issues that has fallen. You're not relying on that pick to be a major part of your draft class because you have other picks.

The Patriots have traded to get additional 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, future 1sts if they don't love the draft class, etc. If you have highly rated, clean prospects then they should be the pick. If Quinnen Williams  is sitting there at #8, we should shut off our phone and run to the podium. Otherwise, we're likely to look at the offers and weigh them against the board.

[Rockcity2]

2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

You're adding extra picks in trading down = more opportunities to select players = better chance of hitting on a guy. If the hit rate is 50% and you have 4 picks, the likelihood is that you're going to walk away with 2 decent players and 2 busts. If you have 10 picks, you're likely to walk away with 5 players, etc. This also works when making multiple picks at the same position (which is another thing the Patriots do often). Ex. If you have a need at TE and you draft two guys, you've increased the chance that you're going to hit on at least one of those guys. You also can afford to take a risk on a player who might have character or injury issues that has fallen. You're not relying on that pick to be a major part of your draft class because you have other picks.

The Patriots have traded to get additional 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, future 1sts if they don't love the draft class, etc. If you have highly rated, clean prospects then they should be the pick. If Quinnen Williams  is sitting there at #8, we should shut off our phone and run to the podium. Otherwise, we're likely to look at the offers and weigh them against the board.

Personally I don't really care if we better our odds in the 3rd....

And there are our ways to get extra picks besides using your first rd pick

I think that our 2nd has more value when you consider possible return.. 

I did a mock that has us trading down but I got a really good player out of the deal...if they do something like that ok..for a 3rd round pick... I'll pass

[Karnage84]

It's not necessarily the move that I would make, but it would not shock me to see a trade down with Atlanta to #14 (or another team in that ballpark) (13-16) and for the Lions to take Noah Fant there. He's a better blocker than Ebron and is very close in terms of receiving ability (maybe even better). Jesse James gives us an upgrade as a blocking TE and Fant would be a very solid receiving TE in the mold of Jimmy Graham (lite) in the Bevell offense. Dawson Knox could fit there as a 2nd or 3rd round guy but I'm not sure how effective he would be in comparison. I don't like the idea of drafting a TE in round 1 generally. However, I do see a pretty big gap in the class: Hockenson and Fant are 1a and 1b. Next tier for me is Knox, Moreau, Warring, Oliver. Knox and Oliver offer a bit more as receivers while Moreau and Warring are more of the traditional TE.

Looking in depth over the TE classes since 2011, I don't think anyone would have believed that Jesse James was going to be the highest producing TE in his draft class. 120 receptions for nearly 1,200+ yards in his career.

[Karnage84]

8 minutes ago, Rockcity2 said:

Personally I don't really care if we better our odds in the 3rd....

And there are our ways to get extra picks besides using your first rd pick

I think that our 2nd has more value when you consider possible return.. 

I did a mock that has us trading down but I got a really good player out of the deal...if they do something like that ok..for a 3rd round pick... I'll pass

I think one of the reasons that the Patriots stockpile 2nd round picks is that you can get a lot of value out of those. Quarterbacks always get bumped up in value, which pushes other players down the board. Sometimes you get these upside picks - guys like Sweat or Metcalf that have incredible workouts but maybe not the production, which pushes other guys who aren't quite the athlete but have a lot of production. Positions like OL tend to drop just based on how they're viewed compared to a pass rusher or a receiver, etc.

If we can manage an extra 2nd and one of our top level guys aren't sitting there then I wouldn't be opposed to trading down. If Josh Allen or Ed Oliver are sitting there at #8, then we'd have to get a sweet deal before I'd want to move.

[diehardlionfan]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

According to Daniel Jeremiah (and execs he has spoken to), there are only 23 1st round graded players in this draft. That is 9 guys who will be drafted in the first who aren't graded to belong there. Then there will be situations like injuries, off-field matters, etc. PFF had Grady Jarrett as a 1st round guy in the 2015 draft. He was drafted in the 5th round. Not to toot the horn of PFF but it all comes down to how you evaluate certain guys. If you're hitting on 60% of your picks, you're going to be drafting at an elite level. You'd expect it to be much easier with top 10 guys but there are plenty of busts over the years.

 

Certainly there are busts but it’s far more likely to draft an all pro player in the first round. 

I take grading with a grain of salt. Each team has their own system. 

[Karnage84]

Just now, diehardlionfan said:

Certainly there are busts but it’s far more likely to draft an all pro player in the first round. 

I take grading with a grain of salt. Each team has their own system. 

For sure - there are a wide variety of systems. Some guys will fit better in one over another, etc. Some super athletic guys don't pan out while some other guys figure things out despite. A lot of it depends on position. There are a ton of WR's who have been drafted outside of the 1st that have been very successful. They're not necessarily the workout warrior but more of a technician. There are also the guys that have a lot of physical gifts but didn't get the proper coaching in college to hit their high. We see the same thing with RB's every year. You'll have your elite guys like Gurley but there's enough mid-round to UDFA guys that balance things out.

[Sllim Pickens]

If Allen, Williams, or Oliver are there at 8, I run to the podium.  If White, Sweat, Ferrell, Gary are all that's left, I consider moving down 4 or 5 spots as I think those guys are pretty even and all could be huge helpers on our D line.  Moving down beyond that is foolish IMO as we would be risking our guy not being there.  If we trade down to 12-20 and take Hockenson, I will not be happy but it would be ok.  Anything besides that and I am not likely coming out of the first round very excited. 

[BarryTheBest]

On 4/14/2019 at 3:55 PM, diehardlionfan said:

I don’t buy the move way back theory. They aren’t going to miss on the opportunity to draft an immediate starter, potential all star. If they move more than two or three spots back I would be shocked. 

 

I couldn't agree more. The whole idea is to not ever be drafting so high again. While we are here, we need to take full advantage and grab one of these game changing front seven players. I would be happy staying put and taking the best player available out of Oliver, Sweat, or White. If any of Bosa, Williams, or Allen make it to us, even better. I personally want Josh Allen the most in this draft. 

Our head coach is a Defensive genius and we need to give him all the weapons he feels he needs. We have seen what he can do with lesser talent. Hell we finished in the top 10 last year after starting in the bottom 10. I am certainly not not suggesting we ignore the offense, but we have a chance to draft a potential all pro player and we should take full advantage.

All that said; I am good with a small trade down for a 3rd and taking Gary or Ferrell . Obviously the whole thing is predicated on who is available.

[BarryTheBest]

9 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

It's not necessarily the move that I would make, but it would not shock me to see a trade down with Atlanta to #14 (or another team in that ballpark) (13-16) and for the Lions to take Noah Fant there. He's a better blocker than Ebron and is very close in terms of receiving ability (maybe even better). Jesse James gives us an upgrade as a blocking TE and Fant would be a very solid receiving TE in the mold of Jimmy Graham (lite) in the Bevell offense. Dawson Knox could fit there as a 2nd or 3rd round guy but I'm not sure how effective he would be in comparison. I don't like the idea of drafting a TE in round 1 generally. However, I do see a pretty big gap in the class: Hockenson and Fant are 1a and 1b. Next tier for me is Knox, Moreau, Warring, Oliver. Knox and Oliver offer a bit more as receivers while Moreau and Warring are more of the traditional TE.

Looking in depth over the TE classes since 2011, I don't think anyone would have believed that Jesse James was going to be the highest producing TE in his draft class. 120 receptions for nearly 1,200+ yards in his career.

I really like Caleb Wilson in the 3-4 range to fill this same role you speak of. I would rather stay and take the best front seven player available. 

[diehardlionfan]

9 hours ago, BarryTheBest said:

I couldn't agree more. The whole idea is to not ever be drafting so high again. While we are here, we need to take full advantage and grab one of these game changing front seven players. I would be happy staying put and taking the best player available out of Oliver, Sweat, or White. If any of Bosa, Williams, or Allen make it to us, even better. I personally want Josh Allen the most in this draft. 

Our head coach is a Defensive genius and we need to give him all the weapons he feels he needs. We have seen what he can do with lesser talent. Hell we finished in the top 10 last year after starting in the bottom 10. I am certainly not not suggesting we ignore the offense, but we have a chance to draft a potential all pro player and we should take full advantage.

All that said; I am good with a small trade down for a 3rd and taking Gary or Ferrell . Obviously the whole thing is predicated on who is available.

I’m with you all the way. 

I also wouldn’t be upset with a small trade down but the way some are talking they think the Lions want to trade way back. Saying good bye to a player with much higher odds of being elite to drop back to 20 or latter doesn’t make sense to me. 

In fact I think its more likely Quinn moves up than way back.

Josh Allen would be an amazing addition to this defence. 

[Karnage84]

9 hours ago, BarryTheBest said:

I couldn't agree more. The whole idea is to not ever be drafting so high again. While we are here, we need to take full advantage and grab one of these game changing front seven players. I would be happy staying put and taking the best player available out of Oliver, Sweat, or White. If any of Bosa, Williams, or Allen make it to us, even better. I personally want Josh Allen the most in this draft. 

Our head coach is a Defensive genius and we need to give him all the weapons he feels he needs. We have seen what he can do with lesser talent. Hell we finished in the top 10 last year after starting in the bottom 10. I am certainly not not suggesting we ignore the offense, but we have a chance to draft a potential all pro player and we should take full advantage.

All that said; I am good with a small trade down for a 3rd and taking Gary or Ferrell . Obviously the whole thing is predicated on who is available.

If the elite guys aren't there at 8 - Murray goes #1 but then Q, Bosa, Allen, White, Sweat and Gary go off of the board then we're not going to get one of those "top tier" guys. Some guys even have Sweat in the mid-teens and Burns even close to the late teens or twenties. Quarterbacks always cause teams to move up and there's a few teams who could be looking to move up into that spot.

With a coach who is considered to be a defensive mastermind, we should be able to manage a high level defense with above average to excellent players. Then we spend our resources in areas we don't have the advantage (offense) and invest in talent to make up for it. I'm not suggesting that we give Patricia a bunch of scrubs and expect him to be a miracle worker but he should be able to do very well with a bunch of solid players as opposed to one elite guy (that can be schemed against).

[BarryTheBest]

5 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If the elite guys aren't there at 8 - Murray goes #1 but then Q, Bosa, Allen, White, Sweat and Gary go off of the board then we're not going to get one of those "top tier" guys. Some guys even have Sweat in the mid-teens and Burns even close to the late teens or twenties. Quarterbacks always cause teams to move up and there's a few teams who could be looking to move up into that spot.

With a coach who is considered to be a defensive mastermind, we should be able to manage a high level defense with above average to excellent players. Then we spend our resources in areas we don't have the advantage (offense) and invest in talent to make up for it. I'm not suggesting that we give Patricia a bunch of scrubs and expect him to be a miracle worker but he should be able to do very well with a bunch of solid players as opposed to one elite guy (that can be schemed against).

Totally depends on who is there as you mentioned. I think we can all agree though.. If one of the elite defenders is there, we have to stand pat and draft him. If they are not and there is a QB some one wants to trade up for, then we look at that option instead. 

 

Overall, I just cannot wait for this thing to go down. I feel our free agency period gave us options for this particular draft season.

[detroitroar]

From what I've gathered, and I tend to agree, is there's more like 15 or so quality 1st round picks in this draft.

I think oline, qb and cb are gonna get over drafted however, so we may be able to trade back into the 20s and still land a guy we have as a 1st rounder but it would be risky.

The strength of this draft lies in rounds 2 to 3 or so.

[Karnage84]

52 minutes ago, BarryTheBest said:

Totally depends on who is there as you mentioned. I think we can all agree though.. If one of the elite defenders is there, we have to stand pat and draft him. If they are not and there is a QB some one wants to trade up for, then we look at that option instead. 

 

Overall, I just cannot wait for this thing to go down. I feel our free agency period gave us options for this particular draft season.

I'm just hoping to see Haskins, Lock and Jones get pushed up so that we can move down, get extra picks and still get a stud player.

While I am definitely looking forward to it, I always find the draft to be a bit of a let down. You fawn over certain players and how they'll fit on your team for months. Then the draft rolls around, your team drafts a couple people that you like, some you're unsure of and some you've barely heard of. Then we have to wait several months before seeing any of it come to fruition. Season ends and then we're right back into it. It's addictive lol