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taylor made

Post Keenum Mock Draft

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Bo Duke said:

I dont know if Hockenson will be there or not. Sorry Turtle but Reed is a part time player. An inline tight end would not only help our passing game but also our running game. Reed is a clear liability in the run game. My opinion here but in no way is Hockenson a late round pick.

1. Reed isn’t a part time player. When healthy, which is usually 12-14 games, he plays almost every snap.

2. I didn’t say Hockerson would be a “late round pick.” I said he should be a late FIRST round pick. Meaning he should be behind the top QBs, top WRs, top OL and top defenders.

Edited by turtle28

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32 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

1. Reed isn’t a part time player. When healthy, which is usually 12-14 games, he plays almost every snap.

Not quite. Under Gruden (ref: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2018-snap-counts.htm ... with obviously the previous years being on different pages):

  • Snaps for TEs
    • 2018 (1020 total snaps)
      • Jordan Reed - 512 (50.20%)
      • Vernon Davis - 447 (43.82%)
      • Jeremy Sprinkle - 363 (35.59%)
      • Matt Flanagan - 61 (5.98%)
    • 2017 (1012 total snaps)
      • Vernon Davis - 799 (78.95%)
      • Niles Paul - 300 (29.64%)
      • Jordan Reed - 234 (23.12%)
      • Jeremy Sprinkle - 126 (12.45%)
    • 2016 (1060 total snaps)
      • Vernon Davis - 672 (63.40%)
      • Jordan Reed - 566 (53.40%)
      • Niles Paul - 111 (10.47%)
      • Derek Carrier - 79 (7.45%)
    • 2015 (1069 total snaps)
      • Jordan Reed - 702 (65.67%)
      • Derek Carrier - 402 (37.61%)
      • Anthony McCoy - 71 (6.64%)
      • Alex Smith (the other one) - 71 (6.64%)
      • Marcel Jensen - 10 (0.94%)
      • Je'Ron Hamm - 3 (0.28%)
    • 2014 (1054 total snaps)
      • Niles Paul - 562 (53.32%)
      • Logan Paulsen - 388 (36.81%)
      • Jordan Reed - 364 (34.54%)

AVERAGES

  • Total snaps = 1043
  • Reed's snaps = 475.6
  • % of snaps = 45.6%

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4 minutes ago, Woz said:

Not quite. Under Gruden (ref: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2018-snap-counts.htm ... with obviously the previous years being on different pages):

  • Snaps for TEs
    • 2018 (1020 total snaps)
      • Jordan Reed - 512 (50.20%)
      • Vernon Davis - 447 (43.82%)
      • Jeremy Sprinkle - 363 (35.59%)
      • Matt Flanagan - 61 (5.98%)
    • 2017 (1012 total snaps)
      • Vernon Davis - 799 (78.95%)
      • Niles Paul - 300 (29.64%)
      • Jordan Reed - 234 (23.12%)
      • Jeremy Sprinkle - 126 (12.45%)
    • 2016 (1060 total snaps)
      • Vernon Davis - 672 (63.40%)
      • Jordan Reed - 566 (53.40%)
      • Niles Paul - 111 (10.47%)
      • Derek Carrier - 79 (7.45%)
    • 2015 (1069 total snaps)
      • Jordan Reed - 702 (65.67%)
      • Derek Carrier - 402 (37.61%)
      • Anthony McCoy - 71 (6.64%)
      • Alex Smith (the other one) - 71 (6.64%)
      • Marcel Jensen - 10 (0.94%)
      • Je'Ron Hamm - 3 (0.28%)
    • 2014 (1054 total snaps)
      • Niles Paul - 562 (53.32%)
      • Logan Paulsen - 388 (36.81%)
      • Jordan Reed - 364 (34.54%)

AVERAGES

  • Total snaps = 1043
  • Reed's snaps = 475.6
  • % of snaps = 45.6%

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Posted (edited)
On 3/11/2019 at 2:55 PM, Woz said:

Not quite. Under Gruden (ref: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2018-snap-counts.htm ... with obviously the previous years being on different pages):

  • Snaps for TEs
    • 2018 (1020 total snaps)
      • Jordan Reed - 512 (50.20%)
      • Vernon Davis - 447 (43.82%)
      • Jeremy Sprinkle - 363 (35.59%)
      • Matt Flanagan - 61 (5.98%)
    • 2017 (1012 total snaps)
      • Vernon Davis - 799 (78.95%)
      • Niles Paul - 300 (29.64%)
      • Jordan Reed - 234 (23.12%)
      • Jeremy Sprinkle - 126 (12.45%)
    • 2016 (1060 total snaps)
      • Vernon Davis - 672 (63.40%)
      • Jordan Reed - 566 (53.40%)
      • Niles Paul - 111 (10.47%)
      • Derek Carrier - 79 (7.45%)
    • 2015 (1069 total snaps)
      • Jordan Reed - 702 (65.67%)
      • Derek Carrier - 402 (37.61%)
      • Anthony McCoy - 71 (6.64%)
      • Alex Smith (the other one) - 71 (6.64%)
      • Marcel Jensen - 10 (0.94%)
      • Je'Ron Hamm - 3 (0.28%)
    • 2014 (1054 total snaps)
      • Niles Paul - 562 (53.32%)
      • Logan Paulsen - 388 (36.81%)
      • Jordan Reed - 364 (34.54%)

AVERAGES

  • Total snaps = 1043
  • Reed's snaps = 475.6
  • % of snaps = 45.6%

Some of that is because of injury, correct? Snaps of a season doesn’t  factor in games players miss because of injury does it?

When he plays in the games, he's the starter and plays most of the snaps. That much is clear and it’s been that way since we drafted him.

Edited by turtle28

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21 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Some of that is because of injury, correct? Snaps of a season doesn’t  factor in games players miss because of injury does it?

When he plays in the games, he's the starter and plays most of the snaps. That much is clear and it’s been that way since we drafted him.

  1. That's part of the problem - his injury history. He has never started more than 9 games in a season (averaged 6.0 for six seasons).
  2. But no, it's not just the injuries (only 2017 does that make sense for)
    • 2014 (11 games played, 2 started) - 34.54% of snaps
    • 2015 (14 games played, 9 started) - 65.67% of snaps
    • 2016 (12 games played, 8 started) - 53.40% of snaps
    • 2017 (6 games played, 5 started) - 23.12% of snaps
    • 2018 (13 games played, 8 started) - 50.20% of snaps

When healthy, he's a weapon. Part of the problem is that he's not healthy all that often, and another part is those injuries are starting to stack up diluting his abilities when he is on the field.

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55 minutes ago, Woz said:
  1. That's part of the problem - his injury history. He has never started more than 9 games in a season (averaged 6.0 for six seasons).
  2. But no, it's not just the injuries (only 2017 does that make sense for)
    • 2014 (11 games played, 2 started) - 34.54% of snaps
    • 2015 (14 games played, 9 started) - 65.67% of snaps
    • 2016 (12 games played, 8 started) - 53.40% of snaps
    • 2017 (6 games played, 5 started) - 23.12% of snaps
    • 2018 (13 games played, 8 started) - 50.20% of snaps

When healthy, he's a weapon. Part of the problem is that he's not healthy all that often, and another part is those injuries are starting to stack up diluting his abilities when he is on the field.

You’re still making it about overall snaps. I know I’ll never win with you and your analytics but I’m not going to agree with this analysis.

My point was when he plays in games he plays a major of the snaps. You’re turning it into something different.

How many snaps did he have in the season when he started 9 games, bc my thought process is that even if he didn’t start those other 5 games was that he still played a super majority of the snaps in them.

He’s not a part time player when he’s healthy. He’s our starting TE and plays most of the snaps at TE.

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1 minute ago, turtle28 said:

You’re still making it about overall snaps. I know I’ll never win with you and your analytics but I’m not going to agree with this analysis.

My point was when he plays in games he plays a major of the snaps. You’re turning it into something different.

How many snaps did he have in the season when he started 9 games, bc my thought process is that even if he didn’t start those other 5 games was that he still played a super majority of the snaps in them.

He’s not a part time player when he’s healthy. He’s our starting TE and plays most of the snaps at TE.

I don't have the time or energy to pull down all 13 games and evaluate the snaps for each individual game. If you want to do that, be my guest.

However, note the bolded in your own message. As I said before, "that's part of the problem."

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Just now, Woz said:

I don't have the time or energy to pull down all 13 games and evaluate the snaps for each individual game. If you want to do that, be my guest.

However, note the bolded in your own message. As I said before, "that's part of the problem."

I totally get that, but again that was never my point. My point was he isn’t a part time player bc when he’s on the field he’s healthy he’s a starter. I took part time player as meaning he didn’t start or something like that.

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1 minute ago, turtle28 said:

My point was he isn’t a part time player bc when he’s on the field he’s healthy he’s a starter. I took part time player as meaning he didn’t start or something like that.

Now it may be that Reed and Davis are on the field at the same time, but you don't get to just a smidge over 50% of total snaps if your the "super majority" starter, even with just 13 games under your belt.

The main point is: drafting a TE isn't the most ridiculous decision out there. If nothing else, Washington needs to have a replacement for Vernon Davis (free agent after 2019). That is likely not Jeremy Sprinkle, who himself is a free agent after 2020. Would it be my #1 choice at 15? Not really. But at the same time, I can see a scenario where TE becomes BPA, especially if they aren't enamored with any of the top WRs.

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1 hour ago, Woz said:

Now it may be that Reed and Davis are on the field at the same time, but you don't get to just a smidge over 50% of total snaps if your the "super majority" starter, even with just 13 games under your belt.

The main point is: drafting a TE isn't the most ridiculous decision out there. If nothing else, Washington needs to have a replacement for Vernon Davis (free agent after 2019). That is likely not Jeremy Sprinkle, who himself is a free agent after 2020. Would it be my #1 choice at 15? Not really. But at the same time, I can see a scenario where TE becomes BPA, especially if they aren't enamored with any of the top WRs.

To take a TE at 15 with Reed, Davis, and Sprinkle still on the roster doesn't seem too smart IMO. Your taking a guy with 4 vets ahead of him with your 1st pick of the draft? 

If there is no WR available, than It's sure to be top talent still available on the Defensive side of the ball. MLB, CB, OLB, DE, and FS as of now are all positions I would look to draft before taking a TE at 15. Even though I would take all 3 top TEs over Thompson at 15. 

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If they believe Hockenson can be a Kelce type player you take him at 15 all day long. Theres quite a few guys at 15 I'd like to see us draft. Barring something crazy its going to be hard to make me upset over it. I'd prefer the offensive side of the ball because edge rusher will be watered down at that point in my opinion.

My wish list in order

1  Devin White 

2. TJ Hockenson 

3. DK Metcalf 

4. Cody Ford 

Pretty much in that order with Metcalf having biggest bust potential but man if you hit on that pick Look Out!

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Just now, Bo Duke said:

Pretty much in that order with Metcalf having biggest bust potential but man if you hit on that pick Look Out!

Given Washington's track record with receivers, I don't think you spend 15 on the biggest bust potential (and I'm with @e16bball on this, his agility numbers at the Combine were the SUCK)

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8 minutes ago, Bo Duke said:

If they believe Hockenson can be a Kelce type player you take him at 15 all day long. Theres quite a few guys at 15 I'd like to see us draft. Barring something crazy its going to be hard to make me upset over it. I'd prefer the offensive side of the ball because edge rusher will be watered down at that point in my opinion.

My wish list in order

1  Devin White 

2. TJ Hockenson 

3. DK Metcalf 

4. Cody Ford 

Pretty much in that order with Metcalf having biggest bust potential but man if you hit on that pick Look Out!

Ford before Hockenson and Metcalf for me. 

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Leaving out guys who obviously won’t be there (Bosa, Josh Allen, and Quinnen particularly), if I’m making a wish list...

1. Montez Sweat

2. Devin White

3. Trade Down

4. Devin Bush

5. Brian Burns

6. Rashan Gary / Clelin Ferrell

7. Greedy Williams

8. Deandre Baker

9. Various OL to start at OG and shift to OT

10. Various WRs

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42 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

To take a TE at 15 with Reed, Davis, and Sprinkle still on the roster doesn't seem too smart IMO. Your taking a guy with 4 vets ahead of him with your 1st pick of the draft? 

If there is no WR available, than It's sure to be top talent still available on the Defensive side of the ball. MLB, CB, OLB, DE, and FS as of now are all positions I would look to draft before taking a TE at 15. Even though I would take all 3 top TEs over Thompson at 15. 

Exactly 

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