AZBearsFan Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 1 hour ago, SLCbear said: I understand you .. but Howard is the much better back period We will either make a splash signing or draft pick and then trade Howard, or Howard will play out the final year of his contract and his replacement will come next year .. thinking that Davis is Howard's replacement doesn't make sense I’m admittedly lower than most on Howard, but what specifically is he better at than Davis right now? Take Howard’s 2016 out of it because it was 3 years ago - Howard’s YPC is less than Davis’ since 2016. He’s significantly worse in the passing game and as such offers far less value on 3rd down or in passing situations which somewhat limits the playbook when he’s on the field. Howard is noticeably slower on tape IMO. Howard has unquestionably less agility. Neither guy fumbles, so that’s a push. I think there’s a really compelling argument to be made that the only thing Howard has over Davis is opportunity. Howard as a rookie had only to beat out mid-round bust Jeremy Langford to land a primary gig. Davis was drafted as depth behind entrenched starter Carlos Hyde and then was signed to the Seattle practice squad behind multiple backs far more talented than Langford they had drafted including a first round pick. When finally getting a real opportunity late in 2017 due to attrition and then in a more regular role in 2018 he’s been effective (4.2 ypc on 180 carries since start of 2017, adding 49/345/1 as a receiver). Extrapolate Davis’ rate of production as a rusher in 2017-2018 over Howard’s 2018 rushing workload and he’s at 1,050 yards rushing and 7 TD, and blows Howard away as a passing game asset. We don’t obviously know the translation of more than double the carries and we can’t speak a ton to his durability because he’s never had that workload in the NFL (no missed games in college 2013-14 when he was a starter) though nearest I can tell he hasn’t missed an NFL game to injury since 2015. But, even with some statistical regression with more volume he’s at least arguably on par in terms of actual ability with Howard as a runner, and far superior as a receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 People are living in the past with Howard. He was productive in a bad offense. Like a basketball player that averages 20-10 on a team that loses everynight. Someone has to score those point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 4 hours ago, beardown3231 said: I hate this line of thinking. You absolutely trade Howard now. You don't let him get 8-9 carries a game and let him walk for nothing next March. Get what you can and be done with it Why would he only get 8-9 carries a game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted March 13, 2019 Author Share Posted March 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Heinz D. said: Why would he only get 8-9 carries a game? Last year he averaged 15/game and that was with Cunningham as the true back up as a pure runner. With Davis now and his ability to catch combined with Patterson's addition and Cohen still being a Bear, I can't imagine Howard would be getting much use in 2019 if he remains a Bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 19 hours ago, SLCbear said: Barring a splash RB signing and subsequent Howard trade, Howard's role will be the same as always .. Davis is a mizzell/Cunningham upgrade and not much more .. Patterson may get some specialist work but JH will have same role This is about the same way I see it. Today Davis is an upgrade to Mizzell/Cunningham and a potential replacement for Howard. What Pace decides to do with Howard I think will be based on what kind of trade value he has. He's has options now. For the right price he can trade him or if he feels one more year with Howard playing for a new deal somewhere is worth more than he's being offered we keep him as part of a RBBC. We can still draft a RB higher if the guy Pace wants is there or we can take one later and let him spend year learning the offense. IMHO this draft is not stocked full with lead back types who are gonna be better than Davis or Howard day one. Those who hope for that may be disappointed. Patterson is a nice "tool" to have offensively and Nagy may get more out of him with his schemes than anyone else has to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 5 hours ago, dll2000 said: I wasn't one in Howard needs to go camp, but I think at this point he does. Something is better than nothing. Reading a lot of frustration with Howard and less wisdom but FWIW without Howard we have no depth and no proven productive scoring back. Davis has 4 career TDs and until last year he had just 1. Howard has 24 career rushing TDs and 9 each in his last two years. He's tough to stop down near the goaline so that's at least one answer to the question whatta ya' do with him and overall he's far more than just a short yardage sledge hammer RB. We've been fortunate that Howard has remained healthy because if we'd have lost him to injury especially late last season I don't wanna think about what a backfield of Cunnigham, Mizzell, and Cohen might have accomplished. We need two productive backs who can handle 15-20 carries if needed and neither Cohen or Patterson could do that. So as of today with both Davis and Howard we're good. We have the depth we need for an entire season. Pace can also work on upgrading Howard if he chooses but from the looks of it that will have to come from the draft. If by trading Howard prior to the draft he can position himself to draft a back he and Nagy feel can replace Howard this season he can do it. If not he probably keep Howard for now knowing he could be traded this summer or even next fall if our rookie RB is ready to supplant him as Howard once did with Langford in his rookie season. But IMHO what we don't want to do is move on from Howard unless we're certain we have an adequate replacement as well as adequate depth and Cohen and Patterson are not that depth. Maybe Ryan Nall can be but he's not Jordan Howard level either. So what's lacking in some of the thinking on this is that need for depth and given what other RBs are getting $2.1 mil for what Howard can still provide is cheap especially if he can contribute to our getting to and possibly winning a championship. We got close to that last season even without guys like Davis or Patterson to add more flash and versatility. Getting rid of him with no sure replacement makes no more sense than it would have to have released Kyle Long without someone to replace him. Howard is still our #1 RB 'til someone else proves he's better and Davis hasn't proven that yet. I'm also not worried about losing Howard in 2020 and getting nothing for him if he can help us win big this season. If the value is there and we can replace him I'm fine doing that but if not I'm also good with keeping him. IMHO he does have value for us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 8 hours ago, RunningVaccs said: I guess my question boils down to: is Davis $2m or whatever better than Howard in this situation? Due to versatility, I'd probably say yes. Playing a 1-dimensional back completely changes the defensive scheme. It takes away the offense's advantage of unpredictability and gives all that flexibility to the defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Even though I love the pickup here's one last comment I'll make on Davis before we go overboard on him. He's been most productive when used as a supplemental back and until he proves otherwise I would continue to view him that way. In the six games he started in 2017 he averaged just 3.5 ypc and scored no TDs rushing or receiving. Last season as a supplemental back averaging 10 touches a game he averaged 4.6 ypc, 5.0 yds per touch rushing/receiving and scored 5 tds. This why I'm still hesitant to move on from Howard until we've secured someone who can replace him which now appears to be a rookie but will a rookie mid round pick be able to pick up this offense and contribute day one? I don't know so I'll leave all of those decisions about what to do with Howard up to Pace and Nagy. By now they know what he is and what he is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 3 hours ago, soulman said: Even though I love the pickup here's one last comment I'll make on Davis before we go overboard on him. He's been most productive when used as a supplemental back and until he proves otherwise I would continue to view him that way. In the six games he started in 2017 he averaged just 3.5 ypc and scored no TDs rushing or receiving. Last season as a supplemental back averaging 10 touches a game he averaged 4.6 ypc, 5.0 yds per touch rushing/receiving and scored 5 tds. This why I'm still hesitant to move on from Howard until we've secured someone who can replace him which now appears to be a rookie but will a rookie mid round pick be able to pick up this offense and contribute day one? I don't know so I'll leave all of those decisions about what to do with Howard up to Pace and Nagy. By now they know what he is and what he is not. Why can't that be Davis tho? Davis himself was a 4th round pick and has only just turned 26 with extremely low mileage on the clock...why is a rookie going to be better than him? Put his college production and work up numbers up against a lot of this class and he is easily better than them... I don't want him to be an out and out lead back...but as a "starter" in a RBBC approach with Cohen,Patterson and a rookie sprinkled in I would be happy to move Howard at this point and I am one of his bigger fans...he just doesn't fit the offence but he is still a quality player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Man, this forum.... Here's a highly divisive hot button issue with a range of opinions about a millimeter wide... Another way to ask the question: does anyone think the Bears are done adding RB's for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 minute ago, RunningVaccs said: Man, this forum.... Here's a highly divisive hot button issue with a range of opinions about a millimeter wide... Another way to ask the question: does anyone think the Bears are done adding RB's for the season? No, but they may not add a better one. One more will make 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said: Man, this forum.... Here's a highly divisive hot button issue with a range of opinions about a millimeter wide... Another way to ask the question: does anyone think the Bears are done adding RB's for the season? I expect 1 more in the draft and then bring back Cunningham or the best FA ST back we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 My guess is they are leaving 4th spot open (if you include Patterson which is just supposition on my part) until after draft. Pace, I think, is looking to draft one of a few he likes if available. If someone else gets his guy he will sign a veteran cut post draft or bring in some UDFA to compete for the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColGerBear Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 18 hours ago, WindyCity said: People are living in the past with Howard. He was productive in a bad offense. Like a basketball player that averages 20-10 on a team that loses everynight. Someone has to score those point. More like year 1 with a veteran but mediocre to average QB not always facing 8 man boxes. Year 2 in a stale run, run, pass, punt offense with a rookie QB and nobody at receiver. Year 3 putting a zone runner into a power blocking scheme who improved when the team went back to zone blocking averaging 4.5 ypc again. Howard is not the fastest, not a great route runner, BUT he gives you good yards in the right scheme, is a good pass blocker, is durable, does not fumble and is good for checkdown passes. Sign or draft someone who's clearly better than Howard, then sure replace him. But you don't roll the dice to replace an (when put in the right position) above average RB and risk your run game for that when all you need to compete for the SB is a new nickel, SS, kicker and some depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 hour ago, RunningVaccs said: Another way to ask the question: does anyone think the Bears are done adding RB's for the season? It most likely comes down to whether they're able to draft a guy they feel confident in. Then they'd be able to move on from Howard, with Cohen and Davis as insurance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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