soulman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 We need to be prepared for the high probability that we'll begin losing some good football players in 2020 and 2021. This is only the start. The massive contracts some players and certain positions demand means we have to be smarter with others where the impact of losing a previous starter is not so great and he can be replaced by a younger player still on his rookie contract or a more team friendly RFA or FA deal. Gotta happen. It's difficult to lose favored players who have been key core contributors but it's easier to let them go when a Fuller replaces a Peanut and a Smith replaces a Briggs. No one has replaced Urlacher yet and maybe never will. Pep is long gone but Mack is an even bigger terror and Cody Whitehair is becoming the new Olin Kruetz. Now that Fox is gone and Pace is truly 100% in charge of football ops there's little he'd done that hasn't been impressive even as he deals with a tighter cap situation this year. We still won't be happy with some of those being released or unable to re-sign but what we have now is 100x better than what we saw under Emery and the latter part of Angelo's era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 We're at the point where we have to much talent to pay, whereas a few years ago we couldn't get FAs to sign here without overpaying or being one of the few teams they could actually start for. Guys are willing to take less to come here once in a while, to join this team and chase a ring. That is a sign the GM has done one hell of a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 57 minutes ago, Sugashane said: We're at the point where we have to much talent to pay, whereas a few years ago we couldn't get FAs to sign here without overpaying or being one of the few teams they could actually start for. Guys are willing to take less to come here once in a while, to join this team and chase a ring. That is a sign the GM has done one hell of a job. That and players like C-Dix wanting a shot at restarting their careers where they have a shot at standing out from the crowd again. We can make book on guys with 1 year deals if we're smart. NE does it all the time and if we plan to create an organization whose a consistent winner we'll very likely end up doing the same. Some of those guy will earn a new deal with us and others won't but Pace is also wise enough to understand that if they have earned it he's in a better position than anyone to make them an offer to stay. If we go back to the Bears hey day we can see that Halas had his stars but he also used a lot of role players who were not mainstays for many years. GSH was a notorious tight wad but he was smart enough to know who he had to pay to keep and who he could replace if they asked for more money. His dilemma was cash while our is based almost entirely on cap space and how well we manage it. Most of the deals we're handing out have a backdoor after year two so any player with a contract like that no matter what it's overall length pretty much knows he's got two seasons to prove he's worth his paychecks and if not he's on the short list for replacement. When we were losing all the time those who needed to go were pretty obvious. Now that we're winning again it'll get harder to judge that just as it has been with Howard, Amos, and Callahan but our debates could get even more interesting in the offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Yeah I expect next offseason we are talking about Danny T, Prince, Long, and RRH all signing elsewhere. 2021 and 2022 is where things are going to get real interesting, bc it becomes time to pay the piper. The next 2 drafts are critical to becoming the next Seattle where we can stay contenders AFTER paying the QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 On 3/18/2019 at 2:53 AM, Superman(DH23) said: Yeah I expect next offseason we are talking about Danny T, Prince, Long, and RRH all signing elsewhere. 2021 and 2022 is where things are going to get real interesting, bc it becomes time to pay the piper. The next 2 drafts are critical to becoming the next Seattle where we can stay contenders AFTER paying the QB RRH is a RFA next year so I suspect he’d be back in 2020. Prince is under contract but I think we’ll look to add his replacement and let him go after this year. He can be let go after 2019 for a $1M dead cap hit. I’ll be pretty surprised if Long or DT are on the squad after 2019 unless they take EXTREMELY team friendly deals. I can see that with maybe Long who has made it pretty clear he would like to be a career long Bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Tough to predict 2020 other than to estimate a base cap of $199-$200 mil and use that to make some predictions. With a $10 mil cap hit vs $1 mil in dead cap at age 31 Amukamara seems like a very probable cap casualty. Tolliver and a 2019 or 2020 draft pick may be vying for that spot. IMHO Long is harder to predict. $8.1 mil Cash and a $9.6 mil Cap Hit isn't over the top if he can play 16 games and returns to his Pro Bowl form this season. By way of comparison Massie's 2020 Cash is $7.7 mil and his Cap Hit is $8.3 mil. Leno is at $8 mil Cash and $8.9 mil Cap. That's significantly less than the $12-$14 mil and more top ten deals are at. Trevathan's deal was IMHO one of the best we ever signed. He's earned every nickel and it was very well structured so his cap has only increased by an average of 5% per year roughly keeping it in step with increases in the base cap. He's still only 29 and a vocal team leader on defense. With Smith still on his rookie deal and no clear successor extending DT for another year or two at our price wouldn't be a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 10 hours ago, soulman said: Tough to predict 2020 other than to estimate a base cap of $199-$200 mil and use that to make some predictions. With a $10 mil cap hit vs $1 mil in dead cap at age 31 Amukamara seems like a very probable cap casualty. Tolliver and a 2019 or 2020 draft pick may be vying for that spot. IMHO Long is harder to predict. $8.1 mil Cash and a $9.6 mil Cap Hit isn't over the top if he can play 16 games and returns to his Pro Bowl form this season. By way of comparison Massie's 2020 Cash is $7.7 mil and his Cap Hit is $8.3 mil. Leno is at $8 mil Cash and $8.9 mil Cap. That's significantly less than the $12-$14 mil and more top ten deals are at. Trevathan's deal was IMHO one of the best we ever signed. He's earned every nickel and it was very well structured so his cap has only increased by an average of 5% per year roughly keeping it in step with increases in the base cap. He's still only 29 and a vocal team leader on defense. With Smith still on his rookie deal and no clear successor extending DT for another year or two at our price wouldn't be a bad idea. Leno and Massie's deals look like freaking STEALS right now compared to what other guys at those positions are getting paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 34 minutes ago, HuskieBear said: Leno and Massie's deals look like freaking STEALS right now compared to what other guys at those positions are getting paid. Pace had them sign them while wearing a ski mask and holding a gun. Stole them both. I remember people being up in arms about the Leno deal and now it looks like we pay him minimum wage for the position. Early extensions usually work out for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 2 hours ago, WindyCity said: Pace had them sign them while wearing a ski mask and holding a gun. Stole them both. I remember people being up in arms about the Leno deal and now it looks like we pay him minimum wage for the position. Early extensions usually work out for the team. So good I worry about morale. Good thing OL are usually humble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 5 hours ago, HuskieBear said: Leno and Massie's deals look like freaking STEALS right now compared to what other guys at those positions are getting paid. Yep. If there is any spot where Pace has earned his keep as a cap master it's the OL and provided he can nail down an extension for Whitehair this summer the job is complete for the moment. A top five deal for him would likely be in the $9-$9.5 mil AAV range for 4-5 years. Some keep saying Long will be history after 2019 but I'm not convinced of that. The fact that we don't have $12-$14 mil cap hits for our OTs and we have a LG on his rookie deal makes Long affordable provided he plays up to his former self and avoids injuries two of which were not his fault. We'll still have a lot of cap invested in the OL but with many key starters and QB still on rookie deals it's affordable and a necessity to keep that OL intact if we hope to challenge for a championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 On 3/25/2019 at 8:30 AM, WindyCity said: Pace had them sign them while wearing a ski mask and holding a gun. Stole them both. I remember people being up in arms about the Leno deal and now it looks like we pay him minimum wage for the position. Early extensions usually work out for the team. When Leno was paid it was at the 14th highest at LT in the league. He went to the probowl last year. And deserved to. Leno's deal was spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted March 26, 2019 Author Share Posted March 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said: When Leno was paid it was at the 14th highest at LT in the league. He went to the probowl last year. And deserved to. Leno's deal was spectacular I can't tell if you're agreeing or you think he meant the opposite and you're arguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 1 hour ago, beardown3231 said: I can't tell if you're agreeing or you think he meant the opposite and you're arguing I'm agreeing with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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