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Updated Mock With No Trade-Backs

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14 minutes ago, lioneye22 said:

Just signed Logan Thomas.  Gives us a year before we need to look at TE position.  It gives the Lions to see if Roberts can play.  I generally like the draft, but may want to add an O-Lineman a little earlier.  Maybe Williams at OT at #8.   I hope Campbell is there in rnd 2.

I would disagree with this one. Thomas might be a guy they want to get more of a look at but he also seems to be just another guy they're throwing into the mix to see how things shake out. It wouldn't shock me if we took a TE in rounds 2-3 or if we even took two guys (maybe less likely but we'll see what happens with Roberts). I'd actually like to see Toilolo come back as TE3.

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2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

It's not that I'm undervaluing him, it's more so TE's in general (especially in Bevell offense)

1) Generally need a full season or two to develop into being effective players. A number of them are converted from other positions (a QB that is changing positions or a WR who is bulking up, etc.). They need to develop their route running, blocking, etc.

2) Usage: Assuming we're in a balanced offense, pass plays are going to be used half of the time (50/50). In the Bevell scheme, the TE usage outweighs the WR3. So let's say that he's our TE1. As a receiver, we're looking at approximately 16.5% of targets (50% of plays x 1/3 of top targets). That's on a max basis.

If we look at the TE1 usage during Bevell's time in Seattle:

2011 - Zach Miller - 25 receptions, 233 yards, 0 TD's (6th receiver on the team, 8.4% of team receptions)

2012 - Zach Miller - 38 receptions, 396 yards, 3 TD's (3rd receiver, 14.67% of team receptions)

2013 - Zach Miller - 33 receptions, 387 yards, 5 TD's (4th receiver, 12.35% of team receptions)

2014 - Luke Willson - 22 receptions, 362 yards, 3 TD's (6th receiver, 7.66 % of team receptions)

2015 - Jimmy Graham - 32 receptions, 257 yards, 2 TD's (4th receiver, 9.6% of team receptions)

2016 - Jimmy Graham - 65 receptions, 923 yards, 6 TD's (2nd receiver, 17.66% of team receptions)

2017 - Jimmy Graham - 57 receptions, 520 yards, 10 TD's (2nd receiver, 16.77% of team receptions)

The outlier in all of this is 2/3 of Jimmy Graham's seasons on the team. Otherwise the TE nets about 400 yards, 4 TD's. I'd rather get more production out of my first round pick or spend less draft capital on a guy that will have this level of impact. You can afford to let a 2nd or 3rd round guy develop where a top 10 pick HAS to be productive.

3) History: The bulk of the top TE's in recent history are guys that were taken in the 2nd - 3rd rounds and more. Ertz, Gronk, Kelce, Graham, etc.

And his blocking? 

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12 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

And his blocking? 

You're not drafting a TE at #8 just because he can block. 

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I would disagree with this one. Thomas might be a guy they want to get more of a look at but he also seems to be just another guy they're throwing into the mix to see how things shake out. It wouldn't shock me if we took a TE in rounds 2-3 or if we even took two guys (maybe less likely but we'll see what happens with Roberts). I'd actually like to see Toilolo come back as TE3.

if you go by stats Logan Thomas=#1TE for the Lions in 2018.  LOL.

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

You're not drafting a TE at #8 just because he can block. 

I never suggested that

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The players you referenced are completely irrelevant. 

If you think he isn't a good fit early because of our new OC...or the Patriot way, that's fair, but we need to be able to run the ball and Hockenson helps there a lot.

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10 hours ago, detroitroar said:

The players you referenced are completely irrelevant. 

If you think he isn't a good fit early because of our new OC...or the Patriot way, that's fair, but we need to be able to run the ball and Hockenson helps there a lot.

How would any of those players be irrelevant in the discussion? We have a new OC that runs a particular system. It can be tweaked based on the personnel but they do work within a particular framework. Same goes with what they're trying to do with the whole "Patriots: Midwest" thing.

Agreed - Hockenson might help in the run game but you could find other players who could help in that department for a lot less.

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10 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

How would any of those players be irrelevant in the discussion? We have a new OC that runs a particular system. It can be tweaked based on the personnel but they do work within a particular framework. Same goes with what they're trying to do with the whole "Patriots: Midwest" thing.

Agreed - Hockenson might help in the run game but you could find other players who could help in that department for a lot less.

1. Those are different players. I never understood that type of reasoning. Hockenson is a unique player that blocks much much better than all of those guys coming out.

2. Yes it's a particular system, but he's also now working for a particular HC and GM. The fact that we attempted to trade for Gronk speaks to how much we appear to value a complete TE....along with the release of Ebron.

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13 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

How would any of those players be irrelevant in the discussion? We have a new OC that runs a particular system. It can be tweaked based on the personnel but they do work within a particular framework. Same goes with what they're trying to do with the whole "Patriots: Midwest" thing.

Agreed - Hockenson might help in the run game but you could find other players who could help in that department for a lot less.

Run blocking itself isn't just it. When you have a TE that can excel at both it really puts pressure on the D.

Simply signing a blocking TE and then having a  receiving TE wouldn't impact the same way. 

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Completely disregarding a player because of other players history is just foolish to me.

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1 hour ago, detroitroar said:

Completely disregarding a player because of other players history is just foolish to me.

Throwing away 11 years of data is just as foolish. There are some players that force a coach to bend their scheme but they do tend to stay within their framework. You'll run the ball more when you have a RB like Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch and you'll utilize the TE more when you have an effective Jimmy Graham.

Coaches have their schemes and look for players that fit the profiles of what they want to do within them. It's one of the reasons why sometimes good players are cut when a new regime comes in but the player doesn't fit the scheme.

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1 hour ago, detroitroar said:

1. Those are different players. I never understood that type of reasoning. Hockenson is a unique player that blocks much much better than all of those guys coming out.

2. Yes it's a particular system, but he's also now working for a particular HC and GM. The fact that we attempted to trade for Gronk speaks to how much we appear to value a complete TE....along with the release of Ebron.

Agreed that they were looking for more balance from the position. Ebron was also just not effective as a receiver while also being a mediocre blocker. That isn't going to fly for too long.

It only made sense that we would try to get one of the best TE's in history when we have a huge hole in the position. It was certainly worth looking at.

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40 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Throwing away 11 years of data is just as foolish. There are some players that force a coach to bend their scheme but they do tend to stay within their framework. You'll run the ball more when you have a RB like Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch and you'll utilize the TE more when you have an effective Jimmy Graham.

Coaches have their schemes and look for players that fit the profiles of what they want to do within them. It's one of the reasons why sometimes good players are cut when a new regime comes in but the player doesn't fit the scheme.

I don't find that data to be relevant. We disagree. 

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