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2020 QBs, how do they stack up?


Danger

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4 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Are we doing this WITH hindsight or WITHOUT hindsight? Because that's two completely different scenarios.

Humor me - do both. Deshaun Watson just threw for 4,000 yards, 26/9 and rushed for 500/5, and that's considered a regression from the expectations he set during his rookie season. This time last year, Watson was on the short list for league MVP going into last season. 

And he did all of this, coming off of a torn ACL, losing both Will Fuller, Demaryius Thomas and Keke Coutee and playing behind a line that gave up a league high 62 sacks (which led to a partially collapsed lung he had to play through). 

Short answer is none of the QBs from 2018 could pull that off.

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11 minutes ago, Danger said:

It did seem to me as if ET was going based off what we know now. My intent was to evaluate the three classes as prospects.

But I think that was @Superman(DH23) intent - what we know about them as prospects is usually proven wrong. I mean, people had Mahomes as a project QB who wasn't even thought of as a 2nd round guy in many circles. He was a dreaded Air Raid QB, and it wasn't going to work out because Air Raid...

If the intent is to measure them as prospects, sure - specific to 2017/2018, it was a coin toss between Darnold and Rosen for QB1, with Watson and Trubisky as the closest to those two.

The two best QBs from each respective class aren't even in the discussion.

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34 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Has nothing to do with fandom. Find me anyone who would agree with this statement - as @Superman(DH23) said, you have three Pro Bowl guys, a league MVP who just had the most prolific season since Peyton Manning in 2013 and three guys who were very instrumental in taking their teams to the playoffs (KC was a playoff ready team, but both Houston and Chicago needed to elevate on the offensive side of the ball to get to that perch).

Which one of the 2018 QBs outside of Mayfield do you see doing anything remotely close to this? You can try to throw something against the wall with Darnold or Allen, but there's nothing from last season that can logically deduce that these two are going to take some significant step forward. They COULD, but it's a wild guess up to this point. We know it's not going to be Rosen, and I've seen what your thoughts are on Lamar Jackson, so that's not a card you can try to play in this discussion.

So, which one of these guys is going to approach Watson status (because we know none are getting to Mahomes status, including Mayfield). 

Besides that coming back from injury Darnold posted highest qbr in the league. And he was the youngest qb in nfl history.  Darnold with a offensive minded hc, and new weapons around him should surprise next season. Still need to add pieces to the ol.

 

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1 minute ago, NYJets4716 said:

Besides that coming back from injury Darnold posted highest qbr in the league. And he was the youngest qb in nfl history.  Darnold with a offensive minded hc, and new weapons around him should surprise next season. Still need to add pieces to the ol.

 

QBR? As in that broken ESPN stat?

I like Darnold and think he's due a jump, I think he'll be very good. He might get to Watson status with some new weapons, but you'll have to consider that Watson should be better as well with a few new guys at OL, a legitimate #2 WR (not 3rd string QB Joe Webb) and a healthy knee and lung.

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Just now, ET80 said:

QBR? As in that broken ESPN stat?

It still flawed, no more so than passer efficiency, but it's no longer ESPNs stat. PFR has done a lot to remove the subjectivity out of it, it's now more of a black box.  But I'm guessing hes talking passer efficiency bc Darnolds QBR was AWFUL. (30/33)

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On 3/23/2019 at 4:53 PM, Activated10 said:

What you like so much about Eason that you have him as 2 overall QB

He has all the tools and I think he’ll prove that at Washington this year. We’ll see. He was one of the highest recruited QBs in the past decade or so. Fromm is really not that great, game manager at the next level. Herbert is overrated. Dude can’t even complete 60% of his passes. 

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27 minutes ago, ET80 said:

But I think that was @Superman(DH23) intent - what we know about them as prospects is usually proven wrong. I mean, people had Mahomes as a project QB who wasn't even thought of as a 2nd round guy in many circles. He was a dreaded Air Raid QB, and it wasn't going to work out because Air Raid...

If the intent is to measure them as prospects, sure - specific to 2017/2018, it was a coin toss between Darnold and Rosen for QB1, with Watson and Trubisky as the closest to those two.

The two best QBs from each respective class aren't even in the discussion.

Pretty much nailed right on the head.  In 2017 for the month or so leading up to the draft all we heard was how bad a QB class it was and how the 2018 class was so much better and loaded.  What happens typically is that the next class plays and their warts are seen and then they become the awful class and the class is viewed as better.  And we start the whole cycle all over again.  When we look back at the arguments, particularly in 2017 we see how bad some of these takes are.  Mahomes was an air raid qb with all the tools but inconsistent.  Watson was the leader but lacked the physical tools necessary to play the position.  Trubisky was a 1 year starter who couldnt beat out a 2nd round pick ahead of him.  By the time 2018 rolled around Rosen was really the only one who didnt have significant questions.  By the time the draft rolled around we seen what happened.  

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9 hours ago, BayRaider said:

He has all the tools and I think he’ll prove that at Washington this year. We’ll see. He was one of the highest recruited QBs in the past decade or so. Fromm is really not that great, game manager at the next level. Herbert is overrated. Dude can’t even complete 60% of his passes. 

I'm pretty sure Frohm was also 5 star recruit at Georgia and I think he put up better numbers in his freshman season than Eason

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9 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Pretty much nailed right on the head.  In 2017 for the month or so leading up to the draft all we heard was how bad a QB class it was and how the 2018 class was so much better and loaded.  What happens typically is that the next class plays and their warts are seen and then they become the awful class and the class is viewed as better.  And we start the whole cycle all over again.  When we look back at the arguments, particularly in 2017 we see how bad some of these takes are.  Mahomes was an air raid qb with all the tools but inconsistent.  Watson was the leader but lacked the physical tools necessary to play the position.  Trubisky was a 1 year starter who couldnt beat out a 2nd round pick ahead of him.  By the time 2018 rolled around Rosen was really the only one who didnt have significant questions.  By the time the draft rolled around we seen what happened.  

I like Darnold better than Watson and Trubisky. Rosen given a chance can be as good as Trubisky

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4 minutes ago, Activated10 said:

I'm pretty sure Frohm was also 5 star recruit at Georgia and I think he put up better numbers in his freshman season than Eason

But Fromms tools are not NFL Elite Stuff. More people compare him to AJ mcCarron than any other QB. 

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9 hours ago, BayRaider said:

But Fromms tools are not NFL Elite Stuff. More people compare him to AJ mcCarron than any other QB. 

I think his greatest tool isn't a physical one, but a mental one - he doesn't get rattled, has a great feel for the game, great Football IQ/work ethic and a great understanding of what a defense is trying to do on any given play. Pair that with above average physical tools (not elite, but top half of what's currently out there) and you have the makings for a very special QB one day. 

Between Fromm, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence, I think you have a trio who will come in and get settled in as very good to elite right out of the gates.

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21 hours ago, ET80 said:

QBR? As in that broken ESPN stat?

I like Darnold and think he's due a jump, I think he'll be very good. He might get to Watson status with some new weapons, but you'll have to consider that Watson should be better as well with a few new guys at OL, a legitimate #2 WR (not 3rd string QB Joe Webb) and a healthy knee and lung.

Despite everything you listed that is negative for Watson he is also playing with arguably the best WR in football.  

And lets not act like Sam was in a great spot with his top 2 WR's injured most of the year.  Plus Watson was like a 4 year starter in the NFL.  Sam has like 3 years of development to catch up to guys like Mayfield and Watson that he is getting compared to.  He's a baby at this point.

Edited by Rockice_8
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21 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

It still flawed, no more so than passer efficiency, but it's no longer ESPNs stat. PFR has done a lot to remove the subjectivity out of it, it's now more of a black box.  But I'm guessing hes talking passer efficiency bc Darnolds QBR was AWFUL. (30/33)

He was referencing the last quarter of the season after Sam came back from the injury.

 

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