Karnage84 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 With the Lions signing Jesse James to a big contract and bringing in different guys like Logan Thomas, I wanted to get a better understanding of the Bevell offense. Breaking out the stats from his time in Minnesota and Seattle, it helped to get an idea of how things should look. PASS/RUSH: Bevell averages a 51%/49% Pass/Rush split over this timeframe. There are years (2016 and 2017) where the passing attack is as high as 58% and years (2012) where it's as low as 43%. TARGET BREAKDOWN: On average, the target breakdown (targets/attempts) is as follows: WR1 (20.51%), WR2 (15.05%), TE1 (13.20%), WR3 (11.29%). RB1 (7.43%), RB2 (5.46%), TE2 (4.3%). From 2015 - 2017, we saw the TE1 as high as 17.3%. In other years, (2011 and 2014) it was as low as 8.64%. TE2 saw its highest market share at 6.91% in 2012. 2013 and 2014 really stand out where the RB was the third most targeted receiver on the team. Jesse James: All of us might be overlooking that the Lions view James as a TE1 in this offense. With a more balanced attack, it's possible that they aren't looking for the 900 yard Jimmy Graham type of TE. In 2018, JJ had a catch completion % of 76.4% for 30/39, 423 yards, 2 TD's in 16 games (starting 7) with 14.1 yards per reception. Those numbers alone outweigh what our top TE (Toilolo) did. If we project him starting 16 games with the same reception rate we're looking at 89 targets for 900 yards. James has done nothing to suggest he's this type of player so far, so we should be a bit more realistic. However, if we assume 65 targets (typical production for TE1 in the Bevell offense) and scale down his completion % to his 2017 figure (68.3) and average his yards/reception to 11.4 then we're looking at 44 receptions for 500 yards. These are very similar numbers for what Golden Tate produced for us last season (albeit in 7 games and not 16). This would be a significant improvement over the production we received from the position last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Want A Title Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 This is an awesome breakdown! This must have taken a ton of time to put together. I am pretty sure I wouldn't have had the patience to do this. I am not deep into the numbers but everywhere Darrell Bevell has gone he has produced a balanced and effective offense. He may not be Mike Martz but maybe that isn't what we need. To me, what we need is an offense with the ability to attack a defense in a lot of different ways. Darrell Bevell makes you defend everything. One of the things I hope to see is for the Lions to have an offense to use the same formation to run both run and pass plays. The last two years, our formations were pretty obvious on whether we were executing a run-play or running a pass-play. We definitely need to be more unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockcity2 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 You gotta figure in Stafford and how he just doesn't look to use tes very much for whatever reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimbaWho Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Lotta research done here but I don't see the correlations between what he did in Seattle or Minnesota to what he's going to do here. Real time situations in the games(losing vs winning) are going to throw these numbers off every which way. Seattle for awhile didn't have a TE that was much of a threat. I don't think a team/coach knows going into the season how much they're going to typically target the TE position throughout the season. An a lot has to do with the QB too, since he's ultimately the guy letting the ball go to... whoever(which ever option that players was in the receiving tree.) What I like best about Bevell is he sets up the offense to control the game with a lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 23, 2019 Author Share Posted March 23, 2019 8 hours ago, Just Want A Title said: This is an awesome breakdown! This must have taken a ton of time to put together. I am pretty sure I wouldn't have had the patience to do this. I am not deep into the numbers but everywhere Darrell Bevell has gone he has produced a balanced and effective offense. He may not be Mike Martz but maybe that isn't what we need. To me, what we need is an offense with the ability to attack a defense in a lot of different ways. Darrell Bevell makes you defend everything. One of the things I hope to see is for the Lions to have an offense to use the same formation to run both run and pass plays. The last two years, our formations were pretty obvious on whether we were executing a run-play or running a pass-play. We definitely need to be more unpredictable. It took a little bit of time but I just went on Pro Football Reference and was able to get the data from there. It is definitely balanced. I was shocked to see it average out to 51/49. Teams talk about that kind of stuff but it was interesting to see it come together. The only guy the Seahawks have really had at TE is Jimmy Graham. He was heavily targeted while he was there, whether that was effective or not. The one thing that stood out, and I want to look more into it.... is I'm having a hard time seeing Riddick's fit in the offense. Bevell just didn't use a guy like him all too often. However, you could peg him in a Percy Harvin-type role, so I'd want to look at that a bit more. I have a feeling that he's a guy who could be cut or traded for a 6th or 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 23, 2019 Author Share Posted March 23, 2019 8 hours ago, Rockcity2 said: You gotta figure in Stafford and how he just doesn't look to use tes very much for whatever reason Gotta look at that a bit more. I think when I checked on Ebron's numbers before he was sitting at around 56% +/- catch rate. If the TE is supposed to be the safety blanket guy, you're going to need to be more consistent. I haven't gone over the numbers for the Kelce's, Ertz's, Gronks, etc. so maybe Ebron is up there with them but it seems quite low to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 23, 2019 Author Share Posted March 23, 2019 6 hours ago, SimbaWho said: Lotta research done here but I don't see the correlations between what he did in Seattle or Minnesota to what he's going to do here. Real time situations in the games(losing vs winning) are going to throw these numbers off every which way. Seattle for awhile didn't have a TE that was much of a threat. I don't think a team/coach knows going into the season how much they're going to typically target the TE position throughout the season. An a lot has to do with the QB too, since he's ultimately the guy letting the ball go to... whoever(which ever option that players was in the receiving tree.) What I like best about Bevell is he sets up the offense to control the game with a lead. You're not wrong but 13 years of data is a pretty good representation of things on average. There are definitely players that affect the breakdown: you're not throwing the ball 50 times a game with Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch in the backfield. You're not going to ignore TE when you have Jimmy Graham on the roster. Without having looked at things in close detail just yet, I feel like the offense is probably going to look similar to when Bevell was in Minnesota with Favre. Stafford has that same tough, gunslinger mentality. We aren't going to have AP in the backfield but if we can have an effective run game, then it should help to take some pressure off of Stafford. I'd like to see Golladay get more consistent. He's floating around 58% while a guy like Doug Baldwin (WR1 in a Bevell offense) was around 64%. I expect his targets to drop by about 20 but he should still see over 100. If he can get his completion rate up, he could wind up with about the same number of receptions despite seeing a bit of a lighter workload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detroitroar Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 12 hours ago, Rockcity2 said: You gotta figure in Stafford and how he just doesn't look to use tes very much for whatever reason He has when he's had good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockcity2 Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, detroitroar said: He has when he's had good ones. Well he's had two first rounders... Who were the good ones?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 20 hours ago, detroitroar said: He has when he's had good ones. 19 hours ago, Rockcity2 said: Well he's had two first rounders... Who were the good ones?? In Stafford's first full season without injuries (2011), Pettigrew was his 2nd highest targeted receiver with 126 targets and Scheffler was his fifth targeted guy with 43 targets. Both guys regressed in 2012 with their effectiveness but they were 2nd and 3rd in team targets behind Calvin. The offense became a bit more balanced after adding Reggie Bush in 2013 which dropped the TE targets down (Pettigrew was 5th targeted player on team) with Bush and Joique Bell as 3rd and 4th. Ebron 2014 (5th): 53.19% Catch Completion, 9.9 yards per reception, 1 TD 2015 (4th): 67.14%, 11.4 yards per reception, 5 TD's 2016 (4th): 71.6%, 11.7 yards per reception, 1 TD 2017 (3rd): 61.63%, 10.8 yards per reception, 4 TD's Travis Kelce has a 71.24% completion percentage compared to Ebron's 63.39%. Kelce has never had a yards per reception below 12.2 while Ebron is looking at an average of 10.95. With Alex Smith at QB for most of his career, Kelce has never scored less than 4 TD's. When Stafford has had reliable guys and they've been able to generate yards and scores, he has targeted them. We do have to remember that Calvin was targeted for over 1/4 of all targets (27%) while he was here. Crazy stat: we had 740 pass attempts in 2012... 'GOOD' ONES Pettigrew and Scheffler were arguably Stafford's best TE's other than Ebron. Neither was spectacular but nearly as efficient (60 - 65% completion rate when they were effective) and both scored 5+ TD's in 2011. Pettigrew has a 9.5 +/- Yards Per Reception while Scheffler was around 12.0. Ebron has been the best TE they've had but we're really picking the least worst of a bad bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwiftPride Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 I’m curious as to how James will translate into this offense because in the past he’s been a reality tv star and motorcycle guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, TimeForChange said: I’m curious as to how James will translate into this offense because in the past he’s been a reality tv star and motorcycle guy. I think his past as a gunslinger and stagecoach robber extraordinaire will also be a factor. I hope Bevell can sprinkle this into a creative offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwiftPride Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: I think his past as a gunslinger and stagecoach robber extraordinaire will also be a factor. I hope Bevell can sprinkle this into a creative offense. That was his father. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 1 minute ago, TimeForChange said: That was his father. Ah.. you're right. At least he has that in his pedigree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nastradamus Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 On 3/23/2019 at 8:43 AM, Rockcity2 said: You gotta figure in Stafford and how he just doesn't look to use tes very much for whatever reason Huh? He had 8 years of Pettigrew and Ebron and got them a **** ton of catches and got Scheffler, who was out of the league the following year, 500 yards. What QB are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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