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Karnage84

TIGHT ENDS IN THE BEVELL OFFENSE

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On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 5:20 PM, Karnage84 said:

You're not wrong but 13 years of data is a pretty good representation of things on average. There are definitely players that affect the breakdown: you're not throwing the ball 50 times a game with Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch in the backfield. You're not going to ignore TE when you have Jimmy Graham on the roster.

Without having looked at things in close detail just yet, I feel like the offense is probably going to look similar to when Bevell was in Minnesota with Favre. Stafford has that same tough, gunslinger mentality. We aren't going to have AP in the backfield but if we can have an effective run game, then it should help to take some pressure off of Stafford. 

I'd like to see Golladay get more consistent. He's floating around 58% while a guy like Doug Baldwin (WR1 in a Bevell offense) was around 64%. I expect his targets to drop by about 20 but he should still see over 100. If he can get his completion rate up, he could wind up with about the same number of receptions despite seeing a bit of a lighter workload. 

one gets 60% of his targets In the slot and the other was 4th in the NFL in contested catches and is an elite downfield threat. Not gonna be the same on comp%

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10 minutes ago, Nastradamus said:

one gets 60% of his targets In the slot and the other was 4th in the NFL in contested catches and is an elite downfield threat. Not gonna be the same on comp%

That's totally fair. It isn't a super deep dive. I'm curious to see how (Golladay) matches up against other guys of that ilk. Any suggestions on where to find the numbers for snaps outside vs in the slot?

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I put together a profile of the average top level TE's in the league - top 10 players, first round picks, etc. (Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, Engram, Njoku, Ebron, George Kittle, Eifter, Aaron Hernandez) to get a baseline of athleticism to compare the top level prospects. A number of the guys wound up in rounds 2-3 despite showing exceptional ability. Using their combine and/or pro day data, I was able to get a Speed Score (measurement of speed based on weight), Explosion Score (Vert + Broad + Bench) and Change of Direction (3C + 20SS). It's not an exact science as it does favour the more athletic guys but it does help put some things into perspective.

GENERAL PROFILE (Avg of TOP TE's)

6'4, 249 lbs, 33 1/3 Arms, 10" Hands, 4.64 40, 4.38 20YSS, 7.07 3C, 34.5 VJ, 119" BJ, 21 Reps on Bench

Speed Score:107.53

Explosion Score:174

COD Score:11.44

GENERAL PROFILE (Avg of Draft Class TE's)

6'4, 252 lbs, 33 Arms, 9 5/8" Hands, 4.74 40, 4.35 20YSS, 7.21 3C, 32.96 VJ, 116" BJ, 19 Reps on Bench

Speed Score:100.19

Explosion Score:169

COD Score:11.57

PLAYER (SPEED, EXPLOSION,COD)

1. Noah Fant - 121.44, 186.50, 11.03 (Eric Ebron/Evan Engram)

2. Foster Moreau - 107.30, 179.50, 11.27 (pre-injury Tyler Eifert)

3. TJ Hockenson - 102.88, 177.50, 11.23 (pre-injury Tyler Eifert)

4. Kahale Warring - 105.97, 177.50, 11.46 (Rob Gronkowski)

5. Alize Mack - 102.06, 178, 11.61

6. Josh Oliver - 108.37, 173.00, 11.68

7. Irv Smith - 105.32, 161.50, 11.65 (Less agile Trey Burton)

 

I put a bit more weight in the Explosion and COD figures with the speed score being a bit of a tiebreaker where things were really close. The comparisons aren't necessarily exact but general in terms of height, weight and the athletic scores.

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Posted (edited)

Ima just leave this here..

https://t.co/3vhWqja1Hs

"The Detroit Lions love T.J. Hockenson. They really would like to take him as their starting tight end, but at number eight, they think that they could move down a few slots and still find him there and if not, possibly his teammate Noah Fant,” Thomas said.

Maybe nothing, but a guy can dream

Edited by detroitroar

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15 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

Ima just leave this here..

https://t.co/3vhWqja1Hs

"The Detroit Lions love T.J. Hockenson. They really would like to take him as their starting tight end, but at number eight, they think that they could move down a few slots and still find him there and if not, possibly his teammate Noah Fant,” Thomas said.

Maybe nothing, but a guy can dream

maybe I missed your explanation already because someone clearly has had to ask but why do you want the Lions to take Hockenson @ 8 so bad?

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16 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

Ima just leave this here..

https://t.co/3vhWqja1Hs

"The Detroit Lions love T.J. Hockenson. They really would like to take him as their starting tight end, but at number eight, they think that they could move down a few slots and still find him there and if not, possibly his teammate Noah Fant,” Thomas said.

Maybe nothing, but a guy can dream

also from that same article

 

So what would it be the return for the Lions if they dropped six spots to 14? Depending on which value chart you use, it’s some worth somewhere around a late second-round pick. Thomas predicts a little bit less.

“It’s probably going to cost you your number 14, it’s probably going to cost you a third rounder and a Day 3 pick in order to do that.”

 

Im sorry im not moving out of Ed Oliver at 8 for someone else to take him for #14, a 3rd and a late round pick. If we don't get their first and 2nd count me out

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12 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

Ima just leave this here..

https://t.co/3vhWqja1Hs

"The Detroit Lions love T.J. Hockenson. They really would like to take him as their starting tight end, but at number eight, they think that they could move down a few slots and still find him there and if not, possibly his teammate Noah Fant,” Thomas said.

Maybe nothing, but a guy can dream

It could happen. I don't think it will at #8 but maybe in a trade down you could make the case for it - getting one of the best guys in their position group while adding other draft capital.  I was listening to Patricia from the coaches meetings and he had talked about their pick in (Frank) Ragnow. They kept silent on him and then ran through case studies (mock drafts) predicting that their guy (Ragnow) would be there when they picked. There are always going to be smokescreen's and rumours this time of year.

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26 minutes ago, detroitlions72003 said:

maybe I missed your explanation already because someone clearly has had to ask but why do you want the Lions to take Hockenson @ 8 so bad?

I'm simply a big fan of his. Ideally we could trade down and get him. 

He would help out our offense a ton.

My only hesitation is it does usually take TEs time to adjust to the NFL.

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28 minutes ago, detroitlions72003 said:

also from that same article

 

So what would it be the return for the Lions if they dropped six spots to 14? Depending on which value chart you use, it’s some worth somewhere around a late second-round pick. Thomas predicts a little bit less.

“It’s probably going to cost you your number 14, it’s probably going to cost you a third rounder and a Day 3 pick in order to do that.”

 

Im sorry im not moving out of Ed Oliver at 8 for someone else to take him for #14, a 3rd and a late round pick. If we don't get their first and 2nd count me out

I would do the trade for the 2nd in a heartbeat. I'd have to think more about a 3rd.

I think we may  pouring too many resources into our dline to be honest. 

We have to help Stafford out....although I'm not usually a fan of drafting for need.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, detroitlions72003 said:

maybe I missed your explanation already because someone clearly has had to ask but why do you want the Lions to take Hockenson @ 8 so bad?

If we're looking for a guy that can block and offers up something as a receiver, Moreau should be there in rounds 3-5. If we're looking for more of a playmaking TE, Josh Oliver should be there in rounds 4-6. Moreau and Hockenson both match up well in terms of measurables.

Hockenson - 6'4, 251, 32 1/4 Arms, 9 1/2" Hands, 4.70 40, 37 1/2 Vert, 7.05 3C, 123 Inch Broad Jump, 17 Reps on Bench

Best Year: 49 Receptions (66 Targets - 74.24%), 760 Yards, 15.5 ypc, 6 TD's

Moreau - 6'4, 253, 33 1/2 Arms, 9 5/8" Hands, 4.66 40, 36 1/2 Vert, 7.16 3C, 121 Inch Broad Jump, 22 Reps on Bench

Best Year: 24 Receptions (29 Targets - 75.86%), 278 Yards, 11.6 ypc, 3 TD's

 

IOWA OFFENSE - Nate Stanley, 235/396 (59.3%), 7.2 ypc; Rushing - 468 Attempts (864 Total Attempts - Pass - 45.8%; Rush - 54.2%)

Leading Rusher - Sargent 745 Yards

Easley (WR) - 52 Rec/78 TGT = 22% of receptions (19.7% Targets)

Fant (TE) - 39 Rec/66 TGT = 16.6% of receptions (16.7% Targets)

Hockenson (TE) - 49 Rec/64 TGT = 20.8% of receptions (16.2% Targets)

 

LSU OFFENSE - Joe Burrow, 219/379 (57.8%), 7.6 ypc; Rushing - 511 Attempts (890 Total Attempts - Pass - 42.6%; Rush - 57.4%)

Leading Rusher - Brossette - 1,039 Yards

Jefferson (WR) - 54 Rec/93 TGT= 24.65%% of receptions (24.5% Targets)

Sullivan (WR) - 23/40 TGT = 10.5% of receptions (10.6% Targets)

Chase (WR) - 23 = 10.5% of receptions

Moreau (TE) 22 Rec/29 TGT 10% of Receptions (7.7% Targets)

Moreau was the 6th receiver on the team. Every guy other than Jefferson had 20-23 receptions. They ran the ball a ton and spread things out to the different guys. I like Hockenson and think he's a good player. Fant and Hockenson are my TE's 1A and 1B - it really just boils down to what you want your guy to do. You're also having to take one of these guys in the first round. Moreau is probably going to be there in round 3 and certainly in round 2. If he's given a year or two to get his route running up to speed, he offers the same things (to me) as Hockenson does but for less.

Edited by Karnage84
Added Targets

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