British Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 The Perpetual Rookie Deal QB System One of the few market inefficiencies in the NFL at the moment seems to be the opportunity to pay rookie starting QBs peanuts. It's a 4 or 5 year window where teams are free to use the rest of the cap building a great team around a bargain QB. It's what the Rams have done with Goff which got them to the Superbowl. It's why the Bears traded for Mack. The Eagles and Chiefs got immediate performance out of Wentz and Mahomes. The Browns have done it this year to build around Baker Mayfield and they are now AFC North favourites. Would it be possible to take advantage of this rookie QB loophole consistently? Could a team aim to always have a starting QB on his rookie deal and use the rest of the cap to build a formidable team around him. Then when they're coming towards their big payday second contract, trade them for a ransom. Imagine the picks for a 25 year old starting QB. These picks could be used to either draft their replacement, or as this team would likely draft a QB every year, it may already have their replacement on the team and the picks could be used to strengthen the roster even further. Then when that contract was coming to an end, move them on. Rinse and repeat. We're already seeing high level QB play from guys on their rookie contracts and if a proper conveyor belt was created a team may not even need to play rookies in their first year. It seems the Rams would be mad to back up the brinks truck for a 6/10 QB like Jared Goff. He's good enough, with that surrounding cast, to get to a Superbowl but if they hand him 10% of their salary cap they lose the edge that helped them be the contender they are. Might it be better to trade him to a QB desperate team, draft a guy (or trade for Rosen on the cheap) and put them into a juggernaut team that's already surrounded by talent. It would need an understanding owner and fan base, but could it work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 If finding a upper tier QB capable of winning a super bowl were so easy, there would not be perennial dumpster fires for franchises. Cleveland: couch, weeden, quinn, manziel Chicago: orton, cutler, hutchinson, and the dozen other crap QBs Detroit: staffotd, mitchell, peete, hipple, among other,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
British Posted March 23, 2019 Author Share Posted March 23, 2019 It feels like a lot of these QBs were used before the recent advantage of the rookie salary was established. A team would need to use the rest of the salary cap to build around them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 I'd trade Goff before extending him so fast it would make Goff's head spin clean off. You just saw what he did in the Super Bowl. Ick. If the Rams pay him, it's the end of McVay. I'd do the same with Wentz. We should have done it with Rodgers after his Super Bowl win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, British said: It feels like a lot of these QBs were used before the recent advantage of the rookie salary was established. A team would need to use the rest of the salary cap to build around them. The teams that have used this to their advantage still had a good QB, you can't just throw Andy Dalton out there and have this work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
British Posted March 23, 2019 Author Share Posted March 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: The teams that have used this to their advantage still had a good QB, you can't just throw Andy Dalton out there and have this work. Yes. But once the system was up and running you'd have lots of draft capital to go get a good young QB. You also might have 4-5 years to develop one. Dalton is obviously not great but he's shown flashes while being on one of the cheapest teams in the league. The Bengals owner was even reluctant to to pay to fire an awful head coach let alone signing blue chip free agents. Brown is notorious for not spending the money needed to make that team good. This process would require doing what the Rams have done. Put the Dalton of a few years ago on the Rams and I bet he looks better. You also don't get stuck in QB purgatory like the Bengals have, locked into a mediocre QB because you've already overpaid for mediocrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 5 of 93 have made the superbowl https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2011&year_max=2018&draft_round_min=1&draft_round_max=7&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=qb&conference=any&show=allℴ_by=default Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, British said: Yes. But once the system was up and running you'd have lots of draft capital to go get a good young QB. You also might have 4-5 years to develop one. Dalton is obviously not great but he's shown flashes while being on one of the cheapest teams in the league. The Bengals owner was even reluctant to to pay to fire an awful head coach let alone signing blue chip free agents. Brown is notorious for not spending the money needed to make that team good. This process would require doing what the Rams have done. Put the Dalton of a few years ago on the Rams and I bet he looks better. You also don't get stuck in QB purgatory like the Bengals have, locked into a mediocre QB because you've already overpaid for mediocrity. The Bengals themselves are irrelevant, the point I'm making is it isn't easy to find good QBs. Teams go decades in between them and they're supposed to trade away one when they get it? The moment the Rams traded Goff and end up with a QB like Jamies Winston, Josh Rosen, Marcus Mariota etc... caliber QB with your next high draft pick, you as a GM would be fired and forever known as the guy who traded away a franchise QB and set back the franchise. Doubt there would ever be a GM job for you again in the NFL. This is a fairytale, Madden-like scenario that seems great on paper but would be nearly impossible to pull off in actual practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Unless half of rookie QBs stop being worthless, this becomes a pointless conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 The problem is once you are good, you have to then be bad again to get a good rookie QB. Even if you're trading up, you're either giving up nearly an entire draft class, or likely picking in the 10-20 range and even then... you may miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isherwood Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, British said: It would need an understanding owner and fan base, but could it work? No, because even if you could maneuver taking a rookie QB in the first round every 5 years, you'd accidentally draft Jake Locker or Paxton Lynch sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, rcon14 said: The problem is once you are good, you have to then be bad again to get a good rookie QB. Even if you're trading up, you're either giving up nearly an entire draft class, or likely picking in the 10-20 range and even then... you may miss. You trade your QB instead of paying him for those top picks, you don't need to be bad. If the Rams offered up Goff, they'd surely get 6 and 17 from NYG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Just now, Packerraymond said: You trade your QB instead of paying him for those top picks, you don't need to be bad. If the Rams offered up Goff, they'd surely get 6 and 17 from NYG. The risk associated with such a move still doesn't make it work. There's a very real likelihood you'll get someone who isn't good enough and instead of good QB on a rookie deal, you end up with Derek Carr or Blortles and you just wasted four years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HyponGrey Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 If it were that easy to draft quality QBs they'd be paid like RBs. It's why when you find one, you stick with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, rcon14 said: The risk associated with such a move still doesn't make it work. There's a very real likelihood you'll get someone who isn't good enough and instead of good QB on a rookie deal, you end up with Derek Carr or Blortles and you just wasted four years. I agree, read my posts above, just telling you how the system would work, it's not about being bad or tanking, it's a never ending cycle of trading your QB for top picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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