Exposing the NFL's market inefficiency

[66PinG]

On 23 March 2019 at 8:01 PM, squire12 said:

If finding a upper tier QB capable of winning a super bowl were so easy, there would not be perennial dumpster fires for franchises. 

Cleveland:  couch, weeden, quinn, manziel

Chicago:  orton, cutler, hutchinson, and the dozen other crap QBs 

Detroit:  staffotd, mitchell, peete, hipple, among other,.

And I give you Denver with a had Manning. The Ravens with Dilfer. He!!, even the Bears last season with truepicksky.

But, the point is, eventually, you need that QB to be able to win for you in crunch time.

none of the above could. Not really.

[AlexGreen#20]

13 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

I get this, and others mention it below, but 

So are you saying that if I offer you 60M gtd instead of 40M gtd, you would say no because of when I gave you the money?  I don't understand.  From a cash perspective it isn't any different from a signing bonus.  Do you think a player cares what his cap number is?  He doesn't.  He cares how much money he gets, and when.  Getting more money sooner is empirically better than getting less money later but more spread out.

There's more job security as a low cap hit player than a high cap hit player with no gtd money.  

Players can want want they want, but they have no real leverage other than sitting out 4 years.  They were explicitly told that this was how the payment would work when they signed a huge guaranteed deal with all their money up front.

My bigger concern would be that the player doesn't have any motivation to play football since they have already gotten their money in year 1.

Can anyone confirm this?  I can't find anything that mentions a max gty relative to other years.  There's the "Deion Sanders" rule, which was actually the exact contract I'm talking about, ($13M upfront as a bonus, and minimum salaries otherwise), but all that says is the cap hit of a signing bonus is pro-rated over the length of the deal.  Of course that would be accelerated if he were traded, which Deion wasn't so...

As far as holding out, he has to wait 12 months until he can legally renegotiate.  A big part of this will be finding a player who can see the big picture here.

To some extent players do care about their cap hit because it's something that works in their favor as far as being released.

How many years would Clay have been released for if the cap hit to move on wasn't punitive? He gets to keep the non guaranteed money because his cap hit is high.

Granted it's unlikely to happen here because if guys that are good get cut, they'll make more than the unguaranteed contract you're proposing, but in the case of like a career ending injury, he might want that guarantee.

[dll2000]

On 3/23/2019 at 2:38 PM, rcon14 said:

The problem is once you are good, you have to then be bad again to get a good rookie QB. Even if you're trading up, you're either giving up nearly an entire draft class, or likely picking in the 10-20 range and even then... you may miss.

This.

It's a nice idea in theory.  But practically it can't work over and over for one team as a system.

If it works out you are drafting toward end of the draft and have to trade up for a decent QB giving away a bunch of assets and hoping you land someone good.    

If you are going with the trade your starter plan, you have to have a great QB to trade after his 3rd year and get a draft hall.  Most teams simply won't pull trigger on trading a great QB.  NYGs aren't giving up 2 first rounders for Goff, because he isn't great or hasn't looked great.  You would get 1 first rounder from someone probably for Goff.  

But leave Goff out of it.  Russell Wilson could have been traded for big picks after he won SB and before he was paid if Seattle was running your scenario.  They just won SB 43-8.  What GM is going to pull trigger on that trade at that time?  That would take huge balls.  Almost no one is going to do it.  

Plus you have to go through likely 1 really bad season of starting even if QB is really good. And you are going to draft a bad one about 50% of the time even if you are a great evaluator.  Are you going to survive that when you had a franchise QB in hand?  Maybe if you are the owner.  Fans are going to riot.  

Plus your QB has enjoyed success and is at height of his powers.  Is he going to meekly go to weak team you are trading him too?  No, he is likely going to make a fuss and cause problems.  

It's a great situation to be in, but you have get there naturally.  You can't plan it regularly.  

 

 

 

 

[vegas492]

Harbaugh, McNown, Grossman, Trubisky.

I think you can plan on something with regularity!

[skibrett15]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

To some extent players do care about their cap hit because it's something that works in their favor as far as being released.

How many years would Clay have been released for if the cap hit to move on wasn't punitive? He gets to keep the non guaranteed money because his cap hit is high.

Granted it's unlikely to happen here because if guys that are good get cut, they'll make more than the unguaranteed contract you're proposing, but in the case of like a career ending injury, he might want that guarantee.

yeah exactly this.  The team has no reason to cut them because they are good players on cheap contracts.

 

@squire12 I don't think you're really getting my point.  The point is to do this for 1-2 or maybe 3 years, while you stack up draft capital which will sustain a run from years 3-8.  During years 3-8 you would use the salary cap normally.  During years 1-2 you will be so cap strapped that you would probably have 5-10 starters who are UDFA or similar type salaries.

So yes, you are trading a short term asset (bad contracts, bad cap situation) in years 1-2, for long term assets.  There's no dead money in the long term, so you aren't getting into any bad long term contracts.

So you will end up being a bad team, getting a top 5 pick, and amassing other draft capital through the contracts that you structure and trade.  

[dll2000]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Harbaugh, McNown, Grossman, Trubisky.

I think you can plan on something with regularity!

I tell Bears fans that Trubisky isn't well regarded outside Chicago.  

They are like you know he went to pro bowl right!?!?  I get shouted down.

 

 

[Spartacus]

I haven't seen it mentioned here yet but even if this idea had a 100% success rate your forgetting how copy cat the NFL is. It wouldn't take more than 5 years before half the league is trying to do the same thing. This would blow the strategy up completely. 

[Packer_ESP]

2 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

yeah exactly this.  The team has no reason to cut them because they are good players on cheap contracts.

 

@squire12 I don't think you're really getting my point.  The point is to do this for 1-2 or maybe 3 years, while you stack up draft capital which will sustain a run from years 3-8.  During years 3-8 you would use the salary cap normally.  During years 1-2 you will be so cap strapped that you would probably have 5-10 starters who are UDFA or similar type salaries.

So yes, you are trading a short term asset (bad contracts, bad cap situation) in years 1-2, for long term assets.  There's no dead money in the long term, so you aren't getting into any bad long term contracts.

So you will end up being a bad team, getting a top 5 pick, and amassing other draft capital through the contracts that you structure and trade.  

So you're taking a 27 year old player and giving him a metric ton of money, then asking him to play for the minimum for the next 4-5 years, after which his prime will be over and he'll be lucky to get another contract. Honestly, he might as well play that first season then retire.

You're banking on finding not one, but two or three players meeting all of these conditions:

1. Being mature enough to accept this deal
2. Not demanding a new contract once he's traded or as a condition to be traded
3. Not having ego problems with his "small" contract, even though he got a lot of money
4. Not being worried with CTE and other chronic injuries and loving football enough to damage his body for just a bit more cash than he'd get just retiring
5. Being such a great player that this whole schema is worth it
6. Just finishing his rookie contract
7. Not being tagged or extended by his original team or having drafted him yourself

It looks wayyy too complicated and out there to be honest. For example, this past offseason, which players would you have used for this schema?

[skibrett15]

3 minutes ago, Packer_ESP said:

this past offseason, which players would you have used for this schema?

landon collins and trey flowers? Something like that.  Stephon Gilmore was an obvious one last year.

If you drafted him yourself, that's fine btw.

Player retiring is a real concern.  Player being great isnt' as necessary.  Just good and cheap probably gets you a good pick in return.  There's also the scenario where you don't trade him, and just keep him while cheap, allowing you to sign other free agents in a more normal capacity down the line.

[BlondeonBlonde]

On 3/23/2019 at 2:01 PM, squire12 said:

If finding a upper tier QB capable of winning a super bowl were so easy, there would not be perennial dumpster fires for franchises. 

Cleveland:  couch, weeden, quinn, manziel

Chicago:  orton, cutler, hutchinson, Trubisky and the dozen other crap QBs 

Detroit:  staffotd, mitchell, peete, hipple, among other,.

FIFY.

[Siman08/OH]

This conversation is (edit) not dumb.

How many of these rookie QB deals have won Super Bowls in the last 20 years?

How many have been won by HOFs? Brady’s first 3 don’t count as a rookie deal because they stuck with him and won 3 more.

This whole conversation is absurd. There’s no evidence that a super team with an average or rookie QB will win a SB besides what the eagles did. I don’t remember the Chiefs or Rams winning last year and they might not even make the playoffs this year. Every year there’s 4 new teams and the HOFs keep winning the Super Bowls. 

[Siman08/OH]

Actually going back to 1993, there’s been 4 non HOF QBs to win. Brad Johnson. Trent Dilfer. Joe Flacco. Nick Foles. Assuming Russell Wilson gets in.

Edit*** i now understand the point of the thread, but don’t think it’ll work.

[Siman08/OH]

The post obviously has merit as an idea to win games. 

But to win a super bowl or multiple the recipe is a HOF QB and a good or great defense. Proven fact. Over and over again. 

[squire12]

@skibrett15

Let's do a run through of your proposal.  Start in 2016 as year 1.  Cap is like 155 million.  You have your previous 2 or 3 rookie drafts on cheap contracts and about 25 players.  The rest can be UDFA players.  So you have draft picks taking up part of the cap, around $35M, udfa using about 500 eack for about $20M.  Those numbers might be off, so if you think they need adjusting just note the correction.  Puts you at $100M in cap space for that offseason.

What are the UFA you would have signed to big front loaded signing bonus contracts?

We can then proceed for each successive year to see what this roster looks like for 2019.

[skibrett15]

10 hours ago, squire12 said:

@skibrett15

Let's do a run through of your proposal.  Start in 2016 as year 1.  Cap is like 155 million.  You have your previous 2 or 3 rookie drafts on cheap contracts and about 25 players.  The rest can be UDFA players.  So you have draft picks taking up part of the cap, around $35M, udfa using about 500 eack for about $20M.  Those numbers might be off, so if you think they need adjusting just note the correction.  Puts you at $100M in cap space for that offseason.

What are the UFA you would have signed to big front loaded signing bonus contracts?

We can then proceed for each successive year to see what this roster looks like for 2019.

Good idea.

How about Janoris Jenkins and Kelechi Osemele.  Replacing both with olivier vernon is an option too.

  Jenkins got 5/62/29 for years/total/gtd.  Osemele got 5/58/25.  These are the actual numbers from the real 2016 offseason.

 

2016 structure for Jenkins - $20M 2016 base salary fully gtd, $30M signing bonus, 3M salary/roster bonus 2017/18/19/20 (none of this gtd) (altnernate structure is to do $50M year 1 gtd base -- still trying to figure out which is better tbh)

2016 structure for Osemele - $18M 2016 base salary fully gtd, $30M signing bonus, 2.5M salary/roster bonus 17/18/19/20. (alternate structure is to just to $48M year 1 gtd base salary)

 

So you are trading Janoris Jenkins on a 4 year $12M deal, and Kelechi osemele on a 4 year $10M deal.  Your team is trash.  You enter 2017 with a top 5 pick (probably top 2)

Trade both in 2016 or 2017.  2016 if you can find a sexy deal where they can absorb the  $20M+ hit.  Year 2 if you need to take the brunt of the money, or if you structure it as all year 1 salary.

 

2017 - if you deal them this year, your 2017 cap is somewhat shredded, and you won't be able to sign anyone.  You will however get cap relief from any money which you put in as year 1 base salary.  For this reason, I lean toward the signing bonus model if you deal in year 1, and the year 1 salary model if you deal in year 2.  Let's say you were able to deal Osemele last year, but Jenkins is still on the team.

You have: $9M in 2017 cap tied to jenkins, but you need to keep another $15M open since his dead cap number will be $24M (the 4 years of his SB) when you trade him.  You want to trade him pre-draft for 2017 picks, and you already traded Osemele.  So that's $24M for Jenkins.  You have no dead money for Osemele since that all went on last year's cap.

Again, you traded Jenkins at contracts of 4/12/0 and Osemele at 4/10/0.  Both are signed for their current teams through 2020.  Those are exciting contracts and exciting players.  I would expect that you can garner 3x 1st round picks (mid round pick) in draft capital from those players with those contracts.

So, cap-wise you have the same situation as 2016 plus Jenkins dead money, $55M in cap tied to rookie deals and UDFA, plus $24M to jenkins.  Leaving you about $80M, give or take a few.

Your team is starting to take shape now, you have 4x 1st rounders including 1 top 3!!  Draft your QB of the future this year, or load up on OL and pass rushers (anyway, this isnt' a team building post, so draft OG and WR and just piss off @Outpost31, idc.)

You also want to sign 1 priority free agent.  For me, this is obviously stephon gilmore or AJ Bouye.  Take your pick.  Both got 5/65 with bouye getting 27 gtd and gilmore getting 40M gtd.

Sign one to a 5/75/55 as follows:  Year 1 salary/roster bonus etc: 55M, fully gtd.  Year 2-5 salary, $5M. 

Your team still sucks, but you have 4 1st rounders, hopefully some of them pan out, and one of them needs to hit big.  You again have a top 10 pick.

2018: This is the key year... you need to self-assess and decide whether or not to keep Stephon Gilmore on his now cheap contract of 4 years $20M.  If you are close to competing (i.e. you have a cheap good qb) you should keep Gilmore and spend your FA money in a normal manner.  If you aren't close, trade Gilmore for a 1st and a 2nd, or maybe more since that's a great freaking deal for Gilmore.

In 2018 Free agency, with your $100M+  in cap you should be active, without signing deals that tie you into stupid money beyond 2020, when you will have to pay your QB and all your 2017 1st round picks.  Do not sign the crazy deals I structured above, sign "normal" deals and look for value.  Honestly, this should be conservative FA compared to 2019/2020.  

This team should compete, but it's the NFL.  It's possible you could implode if your drafts were really poor.  Salvage the situation by trading Gilmore at the deadline if you kept him.  Assuming you are trending up...

Now you are heading into 2019 with a clean cap, and ideally 4x 1sts entering their 3rd year, with possibly multiple 1sts entering their 2nd year and/or a really great player on a cheap deal in Stephon Gilmore.  You need to compete in 2019-2020 while those rookies are still on their rookie deals. 

2019:

This is your FA spending window, and you need to use it similarly to how the Rams used it the past few years.  You are all in.  You don't need value as much as you need production to maximize your team during its apex.