First Mock ever. Only mock

[JaireAlex]

A TRENCHES DRAFT CLASS

(and a safety or two). Best OL/DL class in years but not much at value at GB picks. We are overdue for trenches on both sides.

I've enjoyed the forum as a lurker for many years. Thanks. Just for discussion mock. And controversy, like this:

 

I guarantee that we don't draft Burns. Day three pick on my GB board.If we draft Burns at 12, delete my account. We haven't drafted that type in 19 years and that was round five.

FIRST TOP 15 PICK IN 10 YEARS

1.12) I have ANDRE DILLARD  slotted here as a sure thing. My question is why shouldn't he be number 3 or 4 on the GB board. 

Reasons: The Oline and Safety are far and away biggest need, and BPA for GB in this class. Gute is prepared for this. You win in trenches. We need depth and future starters on DL. We could use three picks NOW on OL. Dillard is my only sure thing at 12 for GB. I was so excited for a top DL or edge with our first chance since Watt 2016. But it ain't happening. Edge is a day three pick for me: GB does not draft spindly edges except KGB in the 5th, who has more sacks than Floyd, Barr, Mingo, and Burns will have combined for their careers. Pettine likes skinnies less than anyone outside Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Foxboro. We overpaid for TWO solid Pettine FAs which shows what we think of this edge class. No FO likes to pick risky edge. I have risk risk risk after  Bosey. And there is zero pressure when a more valuable pick is here. We could have the best line in football for a few years.

My only other options here are:

A) Simmons. He's two tiers above the next DL for me. I would have drafted Donald here at the time. I have concerns about Oliver. Dillard >Oliver. If GB grabbed him, I'm ok with that. After Simmons, I am looking for value at DL in rounds 3-4. I don't have anyone I would risk our first 3 picks on. Only Oliver, Simmons, Williams are top 50.

B) Next at 12 on my GB only board are all non premium positions: McCoy (G/C), Hock, Jacobs, Bradbury. After the top 6 on my board, I have no  premium picks round one grade that fit GB (no edge, DL, tackles, CB). Risner, maybe, but he is only worth the 30 to me. Because of what is available in this draft, if Dillard were gone and Oliver doesn't meet grade, I would be ok with these picks but would really want a slight  trade down first. CGJ, Adderley, Savage could be dark horses here but I don't have them that high.

1.30 ERIC MCCOY (G/C) or Simmons ( - I have zero character concerns about him). I think Hock, Jacobs, Simmons are gone. Probably McCoy too but he has the best chance of lasting imo. I run up the card on any of them this year. All blue Chip imo. Of course the Packers probably have some others here. I just don't see much. We could move up or down. I prefer down since I want more day two picks in this draft.

 

Alternate: The real question is how the Packers grade out the safeties. I have Savage (my dark horse Nick Collins 2.0), GCJ, Adderley, Will Harris (BC), and Amani Hooker. Three were studs at the Senior Bowl.  Green Bay could have these in any order. Savage and CGJ jump out biggest on the screen. GCJ is the only one I have any bust potential on. If McCoy and Simmons are gone and our first round grade safeties, I move down. I loooooove rounds three and four in this draft. That is where I see value. (I think both Burks and Josh Jones are slotted LB/S hybrid. What Jones played at in the final games last year.)

ROUND TWO safety round

2.44 DARNELL SAVAGE

Can play all spots. He's my number one safety. But honestly, any of these five guys work. I have a down grade on Adderley (injury) and CGJ (some bust potential). Savage, Harris, Hooker I see as safe picks with Amos back there. (Thornhill I have as a Josh Jones bust. Great athlete though.)

Alternate: I got little.

MOVE DOWN. The sweet spot of this draft is really 50-120. Tons of players. I can see the guard Linstrom here possibly if we don't get McCoy. Tillery is off my board (Nix 2.0 bust). I like the DL in end of 3 to round 4 better. This is a lot like the year we grabbed Worthy and Neal. Deep class but even less of a second and third tier. Same with edge. Anyways, I really like a move down or two. Kahale Warring is possible but I am not sure he's a round two guy. Top 50?? 

 

ROUNDS 3-4 Sweet spot. Lots to like here. WR, DL, and Safeties are gonna be BPA here. But I'm taking

3.75 Foster Moreau (TE LSU) here. He's underrated. He is elite locker room. Try hard. Same measurables as Hock. He is an athlete and can play too. His ceiling is Hock because his receiving skills were not developed at LSU. He has good hands if not as soft as Hock. His floor is a very worthwhile 3rd rounder imo. I like Hock, Warring, Moreau, Sweeney for GB. I haven't looked at them all but can say Oliver and Sternberger aren't even on my board. Do not like at all. 

Alternates: tons. Hooker and Harris are first on that list. Khalen Saunders is my Burns/Ed Oliver pick here. Like the 3rd rounder the Steelers grabbed two years ago, who is now a stud. Just takes three years to develop. He will get more career sacks than Burns and not cost a 12. Besides, fun to watch.

4.112 DL is BPA after WILL HARRIS S (BC). He may be better than my others. Amos with plus athleticism and a film rat. If we don't have a safety by now, I move this pick up to three and grab him.

 

4.115 MACK DL (TX A & M) This is my Saunders in round 4 or how I see Oliver's floor. What DL do you like here? I wish we had another third or fourth cuz there are a lot of DL prospects here, and I would like to grab two because we won't be getting Simmons I feel. And this is a really good year to grab some. Just that the value is not in round one or two. It's in round 3-4.

We don't need WR. But that will be the BPA rounds 5-UDFA. 

5.150ish Stanley Morgan of Nebraska. Insurance for Allison and does some of Cobb's work. Great route runner. What receivers do you like? There are so many choices down here. I can't imagine GB passes up the value.

THE REST

We need a back up for Martinez. Jones and Burks are clearly both hybrid S/LB. Neither seem able to cover.

We need a third RB for when Jones goes down. Bad class for RB. Of the next three picks, I could even see another WR. LaFleur will have a lot to work with. The only pick I am making and just cuz I think it works is:

Round SIX: Devine Ozigbo RB. I'm not a big fan but think he would work as a back up. He can play three downs. He's a little better than I gave him credit for and I see why some like him. He won't go higher than five imo.

As to the other two picks, they are unpredictable sliders or priority UDFA at ILB, DL, WR, or OLB imo as usual. I can't guess who GB will have this year as I have got a couple in past years. Just haven't spent that much time. Ifvwe keep the picks and don't move up, I would think we grab a DL and WR and find backup ILB in UDFA.

 

Anyways, this is for promoting discussion. I didn't follow the draft lead up the last two years and just started looking at this year's last week. So, this is just my view of things. I don't even know if Dillard is a solid pick or not.

Thanks.

[AlexGreen#20]

So . . . Why are we drafting guards? Much less in the first round? Much less a college center who lacks elite drive skills at the pivot in a super spread offense?

Billy Turner just got signed to a long term deal.

Lane Taylor is signed for two more years.

Corey Linsley is also around for a while.

Where is this dude playing?

 

[packfanfb]

6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

So . . . Why are we drafting guards? Much less in the first round? Much less a college center who lacks elite drive skills at the pivot in a super spread offense?

Billy Turner just got signed to a long term deal.

Lane Taylor is signed for two more years.

Corey Linsley is also around for a while.

Where is this dude playing?

 

Is Lane Taylor safe? Maybe this year, but what about next? I could see someone like Lindstrom at 30 replacing Taylor because last time I checked, Taylor is a pretty poor athlete. Guy had a 5.35 40, 24 in vert and 8.41 3 cone. I cant imagine LaFleur salivating over him as a OG fit in his offense. If Risner is gone at 30 and there'sno other obvious OT prospect, a guy like Lindstrom (or McCoy) is an upgrade at OG and fits the athletic profile.

[JaireAlex]

1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

So . . . Why are we drafting guards? Much less in the first round? Much less a college center who lacks elite drive skills at the pivot in a super spread offense?

Billy Turner just got signed to a long term deal.

Lane Taylor is signed for two more years.

Corey Linsley is also around for a while.

Where is this dude playing?

 

Lane Taylor isn't even a lock to start next year. Last year was our worst guard play I  remember.

 

I don't see much worth the price of a thirty. Certainly the position of guard would not be my first choice there. But I thought I made that clear.

If Bush fell, I would take him, but he is second round really. He will go sooner because there's not much at the top.

[AlexGreen#20]

4 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Is Lane Taylor safe? Maybe this year, but what about next? I could see someone like Lindstrom at 30 replacing Taylor because last time I checked, Taylor is a pretty poor athlete. Guy had a 5.35 40, 24 in vert and 8.41 3 cone. I cant imagine LaFleur salivating over him as a OG fit in his offense. If Risner is gone at 30 and there'sno other obvious OT prospect, a guy like Lindstrom (or McCoy) is an upgrade at OG and fits the athletic profile.

Why are people acting like McCoy is an elite prospect?

[packfanfb]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

Why are people acting like McCoy is an elite prospect?

I'm not. Lindstrom is my OG prospect at 30 if we go there. McCoy just fits the athletic profile. Point is, if you can upgrade from Taylor, do it because he was an average guard in McCarthy's offense and probably won't be as good in LaFleur's. 

[MantyWrestler]

11 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

I'm not. Lindstrom is my OG prospect at 30 if we go there. McCoy just fits the athletic profile. Point is, if you can upgrade from Taylor, do it because he was an average guard in McCarthy's offense and probably won't be as good in LaFleur's. 

Whole I agree with the premise o don’t want to spend #30 on a OG. There will be some good options in round 3-5

[AlexGreen#20]

So we're now going to have people advocating to pick interior offensive linemen in the first round based on their athletic measurements?

Kill me

[cannondale]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

So we're now going to have people advocating to pick interior offensive linemen in the first round based on their athletic measurements?

Kill me

Bang

[snackattack]

I feel like AG20 is doing is bit from super troopers. Every post is a question! 😂

[AlexGreen#20]

14 minutes ago, snackattack said:

I feel like AG20 is doing is bit from super troopers. Every post is a question! 😂

But why?

[Nick_gb]

2 hours ago, JaireAlex said:

A TRENCHES DRAFT CLASS

(and a safety or two). Best OL/DL class in years but not much at value at GB picks. We are overdue for trenches on both sides.

I've enjoyed the forum as a lurker for many years. Thanks. Just for discussion mock. And controversy, like this:

 

I guarantee that we don't draft Burns. Day three pick on my GB board.If we draft Burns at 12, delete my account. We haven't drafted that type in 19 years and that was round five.

FIRST TOP 15 PICK IN 10 YEARS

1.12) I have ANDRE DILLARD  slotted here as a sure thing. My question is why shouldn't he be number 3 or 4 on the GB board. 

Reasons: The Oline and Safety are far and away biggest need, and BPA for GB in this class. Gute is prepared for this. You win in trenches. We need depth and future starters on DL. We could use three picks NOW on OL. Dillard is my only sure thing at 12 for GB. I was so excited for a top DL or edge with our first chance since Watt 2016. But it ain't happening. Edge is a day three pick for me: GB does not draft spindly edges except KGB in the 5th, who has more sacks than Floyd, Barr, Mingo, and Burns will have combined for their careers. Pettine likes skinnies less than anyone outside Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Foxboro. We overpaid for TWO solid Pettine FAs which shows what we think of this edge class. No FO likes to pick risky edge. I have risk risk risk after  Bosey. And there is zero pressure when a more valuable pick is here. We could have the best line in football for a few years.

My only other options here are:

A) Simmons. He's two tiers above the next DL for me. I would have drafted Donald here at the time. I have concerns about Oliver. Dillard >Oliver. If GB grabbed him, I'm ok with that. After Simmons, I am looking for value at DL in rounds 3-4. I don't have anyone I would risk our first 3 picks on. Only Oliver, Simmons, Williams are top 50.

B) Next at 12 on my GB only board are all non premium positions: McCoy (G/C), Hock, Jacobs, Bradbury. After the top 6 on my board, I have no  premium picks round one grade that fit GB (no edge, DL, tackles, CB). Risner, maybe, but he is only worth the 30 to me. Because of what is available in this draft, if Dillard were gone and Oliver doesn't meet grade, I would be ok with these picks but would really want a slight  trade down first. CGJ, Adderley, Savage could be dark horses here but I don't have them that high.

1.30 ERIC MCCOY (G/C) or Simmons ( - I have zero character concerns about him). I think Hock, Jacobs, Simmons are gone. Probably McCoy too but he has the best chance of lasting imo. I run up the card on any of them this year. All blue Chip imo. Of course the Packers probably have some others here. I just don't see much. We could move up or down. I prefer down since I want more day two picks in this draft.

 

Alternate: The real question is how the Packers grade out the safeties. I have Savage (my dark horse Nick Collins 2.0), GCJ, Adderley, Will Harris (BC), and Amani Hooker. Three were studs at the Senior Bowl.  Green Bay could have these in any order. Savage and CGJ jump out biggest on the screen. GCJ is the only one I have any bust potential on. If McCoy and Simmons are gone and our first round grade safeties, I move down. I loooooove rounds three and four in this draft. That is where I see value. (I think both Burks and Josh Jones are slotted LB/S hybrid. What Jones played at in the final games last year.)

ROUND TWO safety round

2.44 DARNELL SAVAGE

Can play all spots. He's my number one safety. But honestly, any of these five guys work. I have a down grade on Adderley (injury) and CGJ (some bust potential). Savage, Harris, Hooker I see as safe picks with Amos back there. (Thornhill I have as a Josh Jones bust. Great athlete though.)

Alternate: I got little.

MOVE DOWN. The sweet spot of this draft is really 50-120. Tons of players. I can see the guard Linstrom here possibly if we don't get McCoy. Tillery is off my board (Nix 2.0 bust). I like the DL in end of 3 to round 4 better. This is a lot like the year we grabbed Worthy and Neal. Deep class but even less of a second and third tier. Same with edge. Anyways, I really like a move down or two. Kahale Warring is possible but I am not sure he's a round two guy. Top 50?? 

 

ROUNDS 3-4 Sweet spot. Lots to like here. WR, DL, and Safeties are gonna be BPA here. But I'm taking

3.75 Foster Moreau (TE LSU) here. He's underrated. He is elite locker room. Try hard. Same measurables as Hock. He is an athlete and can play too. His ceiling is Hock because his receiving skills were not developed at LSU. He has good hands if not as soft as Hock. His floor is a very worthwhile 3rd rounder imo. I like Hock, Warring, Moreau, Sweeney for GB. I haven't looked at them all but can say Oliver and Sternberger aren't even on my board. Do not like at all. 

Alternates: tons. Hooker and Harris are first on that list. Khalen Saunders is my Burns/Ed Oliver pick here. Like the 3rd rounder the Steelers grabbed two years ago, who is now a stud. Just takes three years to develop. He will get more career sacks than Burns and not cost a 12. Besides, fun to watch.

4.112 DL is BPA after WILL HARRIS S (BC). He may be better than my others. Amos with plus athleticism and a film rat. If we don't have a safety by now, I move this pick up to three and grab him.

 

4.115 MACK DL (TX A & M) This is my Saunders in round 4 or how I see Oliver's floor. What DL do you like here? I wish we had another third or fourth cuz there are a lot of DL prospects here, and I would like to grab two because we won't be getting Simmons I feel. And this is a really good year to grab some. Just that the value is not in round one or two. It's in round 3-4.

We don't need WR. But that will be the BPA rounds 5-UDFA. 

5.150ish Stanley Morgan of Nebraska. Insurance for Allison and does some of Cobb's work. Great route runner. What receivers do you like? There are so many choices down here. I can't imagine GB passes up the value.

THE REST

We need a back up for Martinez. Jones and Burks are clearly both hybrid S/LB. Neither seem able to cover.

We need a third RB for when Jones goes down. Bad class for RB. Of the next three picks, I could even see another WR. LaFleur will have a lot to work with. The only pick I am making and just cuz I think it works is:

Round SIX: Devine Ozigbo RB. I'm not a big fan but think he would work as a back up. He can play three downs. He's a little better than I gave him credit for and I see why some like him. He won't go higher than five imo.

As to the other two picks, they are unpredictable sliders or priority UDFA at ILB, DL, WR, or OLB imo as usual. I can't guess who GB will have this year as I have got a couple in past years. Just haven't spent that much time. Ifvwe keep the picks and don't move up, I would think we grab a DL and WR and find backup ILB in UDFA.

 

Anyways, this is for promoting discussion. I didn't follow the draft lead up the last two years and just started looking at this year's last week. So, this is just my view of things. I don't even know if Dillard is a solid pick or not.

Thanks.

I find it concerning that in your mock you use a statistic based on previous Green Bay drafts that made you guarantee we would not be taking Burns at 12. However, you then completely deviate from the way Green Bay drafts and took a guard in the 1st round. Can you tell me when the last time Green Bay took a Guard in the 1st round was? I'll give you a hint, Green Bay is notorious for not valuing Guards and it ain't going to change this year. 

[JaireAlex]

8 minutes ago, Nick_gb said:

I find it concerning that in your mock you use a statistic based on previous Green Bay drafts that made you guarantee we would not be taking Burns at 12. However, you then completely deviate from the way Green Bay drafts and took a guard in the 1st round. Can you tell me when the last time Green Bay took a Guard in the 1st round was? I'll give you a hint, Green Bay is notorious for not valuing Guards and it ain't going to change this year. 

Daryn College was round two IIRC. But I get that. I am overrating McCoy clearly. I'm not going with Risner or Lindstrom at 30, but I won't cross them off either. OL is rising on boards which is another sign of a weak top.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Still, valuing guards is different than drafting edge. We don't draft pashs rush specialists in day one or two, let alone at 12. That is even more true with Pettine. And the proof we won't draft a high edge is we just paid out a ton for two FAs. Who doesnt see that?

 I have guard here only because the other positions are lacklustre  except safety. There are some picks at 44 but this class lacks talent at the top while it has good depth. That plays really to GB drafting strengths so long as they don't reach like they did for Worthy.

[ChaRisMa]

I’d be fine with Dillard at 12 but only if the board falls that way, and that’s close to apocalypse in front of them.

[JaireAlex]

I think I will bump Moreau back to day 3. He lacks the fluidity (which I could see) but I just learned his first step and 10yd split was slow. For now I just have Hock and Warring as day one and day two GB prospects. I don't see it with the other TEs really. Fant will be gone before GB would take him I think.  Some other team will have have them higher.

 

At twelve I think Oliver, Wilkins, Dillard, and Hock are in play. Just not many prospects for GB that high in this class. We rarely get shots at tackles. Need