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Kiltman

By Kiltman
in Philadelphia Eagles

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Jroc04

Jroc04

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

 

Okay, let's just pretend that this is true for a minute.  That would mean that the passing D should look better for other teams with a terrible run defense too.  Here are the bottom 5 teams in run defense DVOA:

KC - 32nd run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Bottom 5 in pressure percentage.  23rd in pass defense DVOA.

Buffalo - 31st run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Bottom 2 in pressure percentage.  12th in pass defense DVOA.

Patriots - 30th run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Unknown pressure percentage (Not top 10, not bottom 5).  21st in pass defense DVOA.

Redskins - 29th run defense DVOA.  Top 2 in total pressures.  1st in pressure percentage.  6th in pass defense DVOA.

Detroit - 28th run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Bottom 4 in pressure percentage.  16th in pass defense DVOA.

 

Yeah, that theory doesn't hold up.  Redskins have an elite front 7 when it comes to pressuring the QB and have a top 10 overall pass defense.  And it's not because they were terrible against the run.

 

 

 

 

You're missing all the other names I posted, and my point that less aggressive does not equal bad (or average).  I'll put it in terms that you are focused on:

In 2016:

Kirk Cousins was 2nd to last

Big Ben was 4th to last

Alex Smith was 7th to last

Aaron Rodgers was 8th to last

Drew Brees was 10th to last

Tom Brady was 11th to last

 

In 2017:

Alex Smith was 2nd to last

Jared Goff was 5th to last

Aaron Rodgers was 7th to last

 

When I say "take what the defense gives them" I mean being able to pick apart a defense without needing to throw a lot of 50/50 type balls that can swing either way from one play, game or season to the next.

I do think Smith will need to throw more 50/50 balls if he wants to take full advantage of Josh Doctson's skill-set, but I believe he will do it.  But what WR's has he had around him that were great 50/50 ball guys?  If you gave Alex Smith an Alshon Jeffery last year, I'm sure that "aggressive" ranking would have been higher.  We will see this year, since he has Doctson.  Cousins went from 2nd to last in "aggressive" throws in 2016 to 15th to last when Josh Doctson played a full season.  I expect a similar jump from Smith.

And as I said before, the 49ers made a mistake letting Smith go.  We will soon see if the Chiefs made one as well.  NFL teams making the wrong decision isn't exactly out of the norm, and shouldn't be used as some irrefutable proof that a player isn't a franchise QB.

And Alex Smith has actually been pretty damn unlucky in the playoffs.  I believe 3 trips ago, half his team got injured and went to the bench for the rest of the game (including Jamaal Charles in the 1st quarter) against the Colts, and Andrew Luck had that great comeback with half the Chiefs starters on the bench.  2 trips ago, the refs called a BS holding call on Eric Fisher during their 2 point conversion attempt (which they converted before the flag came out) at the end of the game against the Steelers, and last year Travis Kelce was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter and his replacement had some key drops throughout the game, and that's also the game where Mariota scored a TD on 3rd down by somehow passing the ball to himself.  Call it what you want, but that's some pretty terrible luck right there.  His lack of playoff success definitely can't be put solely on his shoulders.

That describes pretty much every QB other than Brady, Rodgers, and Brees.  Even those guys have trouble when going up against elite defenses, and usually have to be bailed out by their own defense in order to win anything significant.

What I'm saying is that teams will attack your weakness and exploit it more often. Teams clearly found out they could run on the Redskins and have success and they did it early and often as the year progressed. The Redskins pass defense was good last year so why would teams air it out when they can grind you down for a win? Much like our defense last year. Granted we weren't good through the air defensively but in most games we completely shut down the run game. Naturally teams racked up yards through the air after falling behind. So the stats were little skewed. And I conceded with the hurries but clearly there were issues that I haven't the privy to understand without watching all the games but obviously the redskins sold out a lot to pressure the QB. They were in the bottom tier in points against. But we're just arguing a secondary point.  The Redskins can't get an elite label and that was the point. It's pretty clear neither part of their D was elite. Their pass defense at best can be labeled as good. 

Im not sayjng just because you're aggressive it equates to success. But when you're routinely at the bottom of that list it's a trend. And it shows you don't find it to be a priority to press a defense. You have to find a balance between being aggressive and flowing with your offense. But the coach and players expect the QB to make plays. And the great ones do that. Smith plays it entirely too safe to win anything. 

You can hold out hope for Smith, and I would too if I were in your position. I did for Bradford and he played well enough. But I found an important flaw in his game that he shares with Smith. They just don't have that cowboy in them. And you need to be able to spin the ball confidently and aggressively sometimes. I haven't seen that enough in Smith. 

My previous last point was that Smith is just a guy. Spin his stats how we like but the proof is in the results. He's not going to take your franchise anywhere. He'll row the boat as decent QBs do but he'll never motor it the way you need a SB caliber QB to do so. You guys moved on from Cousins who was about on par with Smith and signed up for another 3 years of the same. If you were going to move on from Cousins, you should have tried to find a draftee to mold and started a possible new era. Recycling these guys rarely work. 

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HTTRDynasty

HTTRDynasty

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25 minutes ago, Jroc04 said:

What I'm saying is that teams will attack your weakness and exploit it more often. Teams clearly found out they could run on the Redskins and have success and they did it early and often as the year progressed. The Redskins pass defense was good last year so why would teams air it out when they can grind you down for a win? Much like our defense last year. Granted we weren't good through the air defensively but in most games we completely shut down the run game. Naturally teams racked up yards through the air after falling behind. So the stats were little skewed. And I conceded with the hurries but clearly there were issues that I haven't the privy to understand without watching all the games but obviously the redskins sold out a lot to pressure the QB. They were in the bottom tier in points against. But we're just arguing a secondary point.  The Redskins can't get an elite label and that was the point. It's pretty clear neither part of their D was elite. Their pass defense at best can be labeled as good.

Teams ran on the Redskins early and often with success once Jonathan Allen was sidelined.  But that only makes it more impressive that we were able to finish 2nd in the league in total pressures and finish 7th in sacks and 9th in INTs.  We had less opportunities to rack up those bulk stats.  We also ranked 7th in opponents 3rd down conversion percentage by the way.

And I already went over the main reason we ranked 20th in points against per drive.  It was largely due to ranking 28th in opponent starting field position per drive, which is not the fault of the defense.

Bottom line is that it's a passing league.  No matter how bad we were against the run, teams still ran the ball on us less than 50% of the time, which is why our DVOA is weighted so heavily toward the top 10 (with our top 6 pass defense) rather than the back 10 (with a bottom 3 run defense).  I'm really not sure how you can say "at best" our pass defense can be labeled as "good" given everything I've laid out.

The best defense in the league, the Jags, ranked 26th overall in run defense DVOA and 1st in pass defense DVOA.  According to your logic, they were only great against the pass because their run defense was so poor.  I suppose they can't be considered better than just a good pass defense, or overall defense, either?

 

25 minutes ago, Jroc04 said:

Im not sayjng just because you're aggressive it equates to success. But when you're routinely at the bottom of that list it's a trend. And it shows you don't find it to be a priority to press a defense. You have to find a balance between being aggressive and flowing with your offense. But the coach and players expect the QB to make plays. And the great ones do that. Smith plays it entirely too safe to win anything. 

You can hold out hope for Smith, and I would too if I were in your position. I did for Bradford and he played well enough. But I found an important flaw in his game that he shares with Smith. They just don't have that cowboy in them. And you need to be able to spin the ball confidently and aggressively sometimes. I haven't seen that enough in Smith. 

My previous last point was that Smith is just a guy. Spin his stats how we like but the proof is in the results. He's not going to take your franchise anywhere. He'll row the boat as decent QBs do but he'll never motor it the way you need a SB caliber QB to do so. You guys moved on from Cousins who was about on par with Smith and signed up for another 3 years of the same. If you were going to move on from Cousins, you should have tried to find a draftee to mold and started a possible new era. Recycling these guys rarely work. 

He ranked right around where Rodgers ranks in aggressiveness over the last two seasons. 

All I can say at this point is, we'll see what he does this upcoming season.

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Jroc04

Jroc04

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34 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Teams ran on the Redskins early and often with success once Jonathan Allen was sidelined.  But that only makes it more impressive that we were able to finish 2nd in the league in total pressures and finish 7th in sacks and 9th in INTs.  We had less opportunities to rack up those bulk stats.  We also ranked 7th in opponents 3rd down conversion percentage by the way.

And I already went over the main reason we ranked 20th in points against per drive.  It was largely due to ranking 28th in opponent starting field position per drive, which is not the fault of the defense.

Bottom line is that it's a passing league.  No matter how bad we were against the run, teams still ran the ball on us less than 50% of the time, which is why our DVOA is weighted so heavily toward the top 10 (with our top 6 pass defense) rather than the back 10 (with a bottom 3 run defense).  I'm really not sure how you can say "at best" our pass defense can be labeled as "good" given everything I've laid out.

The best defense in the league, the Jags, ranked 26th overall in run defense DVOA and 1st in pass defense DVOA.  According to your logic, they were only great against the pass because their run defense was so poor.  I suppose they can't be considered better than just a good pass defense, or overall defense, either?

 

He ranked right around where Rodgers ranks in aggressiveness over the last two seasons. 

All I can say at this point is, we'll see what he does this upcoming season.

Ok, I'll gladly leave it at that. Just make sure you don't go disappearing. 

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HTTRDynasty

HTTRDynasty

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5 minutes ago, Jroc04 said:

Ok, I'll gladly leave it at that. Just make sure you don't go disappearing. 

I won't pull a Matts.  If I didn't disappear in 2014 after the subject of my username officially busted, you don't have to worry about me disappearing at any other point xD.  

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Nabbs4u

Nabbs4u

Posted
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On 5/17/2018 at 4:01 PM, Phire said:

Lane on Chip:

 

It sucks that the Trio of Desean, Shady and Maclin were let go or decided to leave. But things happen for a reason. 

Without Chip we probably don't draft Ertz , Lane and Hicks most likely. Maybe don't bring in Sproles and Jenkins. Foles doesn't have his breakout season running RPO's which in turn won us a SB when Doing adapted to Nick's strengths. With the Trio intact, we probably aren't in position to draft Wentz because our record is most likely better. Stuck in Mediocrity as a 10 win type team but not Championship caliber.

Yes it took the train wreck he created to get this team on track, but that train wreck actually helped win us our first SB in the long term. Butterfly Effect!!

So thanks Chip for your stupidity!

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Danger

Danger

Posted
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On 5/17/2018 at 8:20 PM, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I won't pull a Matts.  If I didn't disappear in 2014 after the subject of my username officially busted, you don't have to worry about me disappearing at any other point xD.  

Could just make a new, more general username. It's what I did like 5 years after McNabb was gone and Darren McFadden became a Cowboy...

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