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The Official Derek Carr Thread

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2 hours ago, Bitty 2.0 said:

OK we all can agree the offense is better this year than it was last year.

Let’s say Carr has a 10 to 20% increase over last years numbers and keep the INTs down.

Will he still be considered average or elite?

For me I want to see him improve his numbers but it is more about when he gets those numbers.  Before the o line injuries we kept collapsing in the 4th and after the injuries we were just an awful team.  The 2 top keys to our success I want to see next year are sustaining drives to keep the D fresh and the defense causing some turnovers.   We improved TO differential over 2017 but not enough.  Ints per game are up but fumbles caused where half.  Found a great site this morning for stats.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/

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2 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

For me I want to see him improve his numbers but it is more about when he gets those numbers.  Before the o line injuries we kept collapsing in the 4th and after the injuries we were just an awful team.  The 2 top keys to our success I want to see next year are sustaining drives to keep the D fresh and the defense causing some turnovers.   We improved TO differential over 2017 but not enough.  Ints per game are up but fumbles caused where half.  Found a great site this morning for stats.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/

Don't ever post any NFL stats if it isn't from PFF. Don't you people know PFF is the bible of NFL stats?

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47 minutes ago, SBXISBXVSBXVIII said:

Don't ever post any NFL stats if it isn't from PFF. Don't you people know PFF is the bible of NFL stats?

I am a heretic then.

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On 04/06/2019 at 5:10 PM, drfrey13 said:

My original post states that I am just showing the opinion of posters on this site.  I also state that i understand that these are their opinions and do not necessarily agree with them.  My opinion of Carr is that he deserves another year to show a certain amount of improvement to prove himself because he was handicapped with systems and talent around him.  Now for the other site with the overall rankings the averages are garbage.  Do you really think every QB in the league is average or above.  That is stupid and impossible.  So go ahead and think what you will but before you start talking about average at least gain some understanding of what the words mean.  32 starting QBs in the league you can not have 4 below average,  9 average, and 15 above average.

 

No offense but try to keep straight what I was talking about.  I was using posters on Football's Future as an example and not that site.  If I saw what the sites rankings were I would have posted that their average rankings were garbage but maybe a good tool for us to make our own rankings.

I think the confusion here is how posters designate their catagories - is 'average' a comparison to the 2019 projected starters (in which case you'd be correct) or is it in terms of calibre of QB that the poster has seen over a period of time which may include historical QBs. For example, when I rate a QB I take into account the QBs we've had over the last 30 odd years and the great QBs I've seen such as Montana, Marino and Moon. For me, average would be a QB who is a starter but who is not going to carry the team but may have great games at times aswell as poor games and seasons, Dalton would be the epitome of average to me. It wouldn't be the mean skill of the current starting QBs as they could all be great or lots of them poor at any one time. The tiers currently for me would be;

Elite QBs - Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Wilson

Near Elite - Rivers, Luck, Mahomes, Roethlisberger

Good Starter - Ryan, Mayfield, Wentz, Carr, Watson, Newton, Stafford, Goff, Garoppolo

Average - Dalton, Cousins, Prescott, Smith, Foles, Mariota, Manning, Fitzpatrick, Bradford, Flacco, Winston, 

Below Average - Keenum, Trubisky, Tannehill, Jackson, Bortles, Gabbert, 

Need to see more - Garoppolo, Darnold, Allen, All Rookie QBs

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4 hours ago, Darbsk said:

I think the confusion here is how posters designate their catagories - is 'average' a comparison to the 2019 projected starters (in which case you'd be correct) or is it in terms of calibre of QB that the poster has seen over a period of time which may include historical QBs. For example, when I rate a QB I take into account the QBs we've had over the last 30 odd years and the great QBs I've seen such as Montana, Marino and Moon. For me, average would be a QB who is a starter but who is not going to carry the team but may have great games at times aswell as poor games and seasons, Dalton would be the epitome of average to me. It wouldn't be the mean skill of the current starting QBs as they could all be great or lots of them poor at any one time. The tiers currently for me would be;

Elite QBs - Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Wilson

Near Elite - Rivers, Luck, Mahomes, Roethlisberger

Good Starter - Ryan, Mayfield, Wentz, Carr, Watson, Newton, Stafford, Goff, Garoppolo

Average - Dalton, Cousins, Prescott, Smith, Foles, Mariota, Manning, Fitzpatrick, Bradford, Flacco, Winston, 

Below Average - Keenum, Trubisky, Tannehill, Jackson, Bortles, Gabbert, 

Need to see more - Garoppolo, Darnold, Allen, All Rookie QBs

I do not have very strict definitions for what I think the tiers are but when ranking QBs I look at what amount of the success the team has had and how much success that player has accounted for.  1 QB I struggle with on this definition though is Brady.  Every QB that NE puts on the field plays well so is it the team or Brady.  Also when players do not do what they are suppose to to their system breaks down quickly and Brady losses his mind like a spoiled only child.  In the end it is hard not to just say he is the maestro in a great system.

I understand the historical aspect but I stay away from that because the game has changed so much.  I do not think there is a single sport where you can take an above average professional and have them compete 50 years ago and they would look like an all time great.  Imagine the Greek Freak playing against Bill Russel and Wilt Chamberlain.  He would make them look silly.  This is an extreme example but the NFL QB has just in the past 25 years gone thru a paradigm shift and so much more focus is on them.  13 QBs last year passed for more yards than Montana in his best season and 8 had more TDs than his best year.  You could even argue that Watson last year was better than any year Montana ever had and that is with getting sacked 62 times compared to Montana's 33.

I think your ranking are a little bit high but still reasonable.  The source of the debate now has 33 QB at or above average, 1 unknown (Eli Manning), and 4 below (The top 4 QBs from the 2019 draft).   That is where the argument cam from.  https://tiermaker.com/categories/sports/nfl-quarterbacks-tiers-18267  To use it as evidence that Carr is seen as an above average QB is laughable.  I am not saying he is or can not be though.  In the beginning just wanted to show the opinion of non Raider fans.

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1 hour ago, drfrey13 said:

I do not have very strict definitions for what I think the tiers are but when ranking QBs I look at what amount of the success the team has had and how much success that player has accounted for.  1 QB I struggle with on this definition though is Brady.  Every QB that NE puts on the field plays well so is it the team or Brady.  Also when players do not do what they are suppose to to their system breaks down quickly and Brady losses his mind like a spoiled only child.  In the end it is hard not to just say he is the maestro in a great system.

I understand the historical aspect but I stay away from that because the game has changed so much.  I do not think there is a single sport where you can take an above average professional and have them compete 50 years ago and they would look like an all time great.  Imagine the Greek Freak playing against Bill Russel and Wilt Chamberlain.  He would make them look silly.  This is an extreme example but the NFL QB has just in the past 25 years gone thru a paradigm shift and so much more focus is on them.  13 QBs last year passed for more yards than Montana in his best season and 8 had more TDs than his best year.  You could even argue that Watson last year was better than any year Montana ever had and that is with getting sacked 62 times compared to Montana's 33.

I think your ranking are a little bit high but still reasonable.  The source of the debate now has 33 QB at or above average, 1 unknown (Eli Manning), and 4 below (The top 4 QBs from the 2019 draft).   That is where the argument cam from.  https://tiermaker.com/categories/sports/nfl-quarterbacks-tiers-18267  To use it as evidence that Carr is seen as an above average QB is laughable.  I am not saying he is or can not be though.  In the beginning just wanted to show the opinion of non Raider fans.

Good reply. I can't speak for anyone else, but when I rate QBs (or any players or boxers etc. etc.) I tend to put them in the context of their time frame and compared against their peers. Montana's numbers would look pedestrian to pretty good today but obviously at that time was elite - which you would only really know by watching the actual games. This is the only way I feel we can compare different generations.

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36 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

Good reply. I can't speak for anyone else, but when I rate QBs (or any players or boxers etc. etc.) I tend to put them in the context of their time frame and compared against their peers. Montana's numbers would look pedestrian to pretty good today but obviously at that time was elite - which you would only really know by watching the actual games. This is the only way I feel we can compare different generations.

I us to think of myself as a decent QB when I was young until I say him play in a flag football game.  Montana was doing things that blew my mind.  That is when I decided to focus on basketball even though I am under 6 feet tall.

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I always try to stay out of this thread, but a AB ranking came out from Mike Sandos and man. He ranked tier 3. He was ranked tier 1 in 17. 

Here is a quote from the article. These comes from coaches around the league so this is what the NFL thinks. 

He is sensitive and needs encouragement, and that is not the style he is going to get,” an offensive coach said. “When someone shows disappointment in him, he shrinks. The head coach not coming out and completely endorsing him has to be eating him alive. When there is blame to be placed each week, it falls to the quarterback, and that is going to be a problem, so they had better hope they win or it’s going to be rocky for him.”

here is what they also said 

  • Voter No. 1: “He throws one against the Chargers — fourth down, he threw the ball away, just gave them the ball. It was the darndest thing I’ve ever seen. I think that drives (Jon) Gruden crazy. And he misses way too many throws.”
  • Voter No. 2: “Watch the last 2:30 of their game against Indy. He was just flinching in the pocket. (The Colts) were not even pressuring. It was like he had conceded the game.”
  • Voter No. 3: “The Chiefs game, he throws a pick-six and the guy (Jared Cook) isn’t even running the route. It was, ‘What the f—?’”

 

Can’t remember seeing a QB fall from grace so quickly. Was once thought of one of the better younger QBs to this. 2019 is gonna make or break his career. I hope Carr is able to rise to the occasion and shut these people up. This season is gonna be so interesting I hope it doesn’t get to him. 

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2 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

I always try to stay out of this thread, but a AB ranking came out from Mike Sandos and man. He ranked tier 3. He was ranked tier 1 in 17. 

Here is a quote from the article. These comes from coaches around the league so this is what the NFL thinks. 

He is sensitive and needs encouragement, and that is not the style he is going to get,” an offensive coach said. “When someone shows disappointment in him, he shrinks. The head coach not coming out and completely endorsing him has to be eating him alive. When there is blame to be placed each week, it falls to the quarterback, and that is going to be a problem, so they had better hope they win or it’s going to be rocky for him.”

here is what they also said 

  • Voter No. 1: “He throws one against the Chargers — fourth down, he threw the ball away, just gave them the ball. It was the darndest thing I’ve ever seen. I think that drives (Jon) Gruden crazy. And he misses way too many throws.”
  • Voter No. 2: “Watch the last 2:30 of their game against Indy. He was just flinching in the pocket. (The Colts) were not even pressuring. It was like he had conceded the game.”
  • Voter No. 3: “The Chiefs game, he throws a pick-six and the guy (Jared Cook) isn’t even running the route. It was, ‘What the f—?’”

 

Can’t remember seeing a QB fall from grace so quickly. Was once thought of one of the better younger QBs to this. 2019 is gonna make or break his career. I hope Carr is able to rise to the occasion and shut these people up. This season is gonna be so interesting I hope it doesn’t get to him. 

How could he not fall? I mean remember when everyone was on the Bortles bandwagon? The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league. Carr has to be better this season if he wants to remain a starter in this league. I like Carr but he’s not the same guy he was his first 3 seasons in the NFL. He doesn’t have the killer instinct he used to have and it is starting to show. He’s on a one year contract he needs to show something. 

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On 6/17/2019 at 5:24 AM, Darbsk said:

Near Elite - Mahomes

 

Near elite? He just had one of the best seasons in NFL history.

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20 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Near elite? He just had one of the best seasons in NFL history.

To be elite you have to produce more than 1 year IMO. He was in a very favourable environment, with lots of weapons, good coaching and a pretty easy schedule. He played very, very well but let's see how he does over the course of 3 or 4 years before we crown him.........

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1 minute ago, Darbsk said:

To be elite you have to produce more than 1 year IMO. He was in a very favourable environment, with lots of weapons, good coaching and a pretty easy schedule. He played very, very well but let's see how he does over the course of 3 or 4 years before we crown him.........

That's true, consistency is key. I remember when Kapernick lit the league up for that short period of time and I thought was destined to be a HOFer. 

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