The Official Derek Carr Thread

[BayRaider]

2 hours ago, raidr4life said:

I won't say I know how accurate this is but I'm tired of blaming Wr's too.

Carr homers will still find a way to spin this. Carrs windows have to be HUGE for him to throw. It's literally ridiculous and has to be wide open for him to pull the trigger.

[BayRaider]

1 minute ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

This. It's so funny. Our WR group is trash. Let's be honest with ourselves. It's garbage. 

Renfrow was our only reliable WR and he's out. He is a gem, but would only be a #3 on a good team.

It would actually be an easier fix if they were good and Carr was trash. 

How about you take a close look at all 32 Receiving Cores. A lot of them are not far off. Hardly any teams have good receiving cores. It's actually a complete rarity.

[MrOaktown_56]

7 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

How about you take a close look at all 32 Receiving Cores. A lot of them are not far off. Hardly any teams have good receiving cores. It's actually a complete rarity.

There's a difference between good and bad. We are just bad. Some of the bad ones still have a #1 guy (e.g. Denver, GB). We don't have a #1 guy and are bad.

Unsurprisingly, some of the teams with the best qb play (Seattle, KC, Min, Houston) this year have some of the best WR cores. 

Edited December 7, 2019 by MrOaktown_56

[raidr4life]

51 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

This. It's so funny. Our WR group is trash. Let's be honest with ourselves. It's garbage. 

Renfrow was our only reliable WR and he's out. He is a gem, but would only be a #3 on a good team.

It would actually be an easier fix if they were good and Carr was trash. 

You can say our WR's are trash now, but they haven't been his whole career but we constantly saying he has no weapons, when there is ton of film out there showing how he just doesn't see guy's open or locks in on his first read. It's a tired excuse. AB would have been frustrated one step he thinks he's open Carr would have needed to see him open by five.

[bucksavage1]

 

[raidr4life]

Haha this guy put my rant into a video.^^^

[jimkelly02]

I’m not defending Carr, he definitely needs to get a lot better but I find serious fault in those “separation stats”!  
Who is calculating them?  How do you measure separation?  It’s like running back carries, the balls inside the 50 and he rushes to past the 45 but it’s “5 yds” not 5.5 and extrapolate that over 100s of carries and this average that does to the tenth of a decimal place is very skewed from a purely statistical standpoint.

From that data it seems like .1 yds separates teams into tiers (5-6 levels across the 32 team league) and .5-.6 is the difference of all 32 teams (the top 15 is seperated by .333, so I’ll carelessly assuming doubling that to .666 is the difference for the other half the league).

ill do the math for everyone... 

.1yds = 3.6 inches
.6yds = just under 24 inches = 2ft = .666 yds

so unless the person measuring the separation is able to measure the separation of the WRs on every play down to the .1 (3.6”) or really the .01 (.36”) then this data is useless.  
There is zero way of measuring separation and calculating it into Statistics, unless every player is wearing some type of insanely precise GPS device inbedded into their helmet or underarmour type shirt.  Even then the difference in player arm lengths (28-36??) (that’s 7 inches and that 7 inch variable is 1/3 of the difference between the avg separation of the top and bottom team) would require it to be inbedded into their gloves.  
 

thus you’d literally need every player wearing crazy sensors in Their gloves to make these stats valid.  And even then there’s way too many variables to make the data valid.  

Our WR core is a problem,, it’s a collective of a low-mid tier #2 WR whose heal is still messed up (T.Williams) and an injured average to above average, but very reliable slot WR in Renfrow.  Then there’s Doss and Ateman and Zay Jones who COULD be good but they also could just as easily be cut next year.  Their replacement level 4-6 WRs.

We have no playmakers.  We have no one that is going to challenge deep or bust some crazy AB type double move and get wide open.  Teams can sit back and jump routes.... see the Mathias Int.  It’s just like when we played the Chargers (I definitely typed San Diego then corrected myself... that one will never click with me) and Erik Harris was literally jumping routes left and right, to the tune of 3 Ints plus 1 drop and 1 Int called back for penalty, if my memory is correct).  Rivers was trash.  
 

I knew we’d eventually collapse because our offense wasn’t that good.  Teams figure it out quickly.  We don’t challenge defenses deep! 
 

we need a true #1 and a #3 added to this group to be a playoff team.

I don’t think we need a Julio Jones #1 because Carr spreads the ball around well but we need a Kenny Golliday/Mike Williams/Corey Davis type #1.  We can get away with a bottom tier #1 and a solid #2 plus Renfrow and Jones.

[NJ Raider]

1 hour ago, bucksavage1 said:

 

He gets rid of the ball way too quickly and panics constantly. I too was wondering why he didn't throw to Waller on the pick six play. He was 1on1 with a lb. Don't get it. Watching this made me aggravated and some of these open receivers are right in front of him. I can only imagine how aggravated Gruden gets watching this on film. If he falls in love with a qb in the draft, I don't think they hesitate this year.

[Frankie2Gunz]

2 hours ago, jimkelly02 said:

I’m not defending Carr, he definitely needs to get a lot better but I find serious fault in those “separation stats”!  
Who is calculating them?  How do you measure separation?  It’s like running back carries, the balls inside the 50 and he rushes to past the 45 but it’s “5 yds” not 5.5 and extrapolate that over 100s of carries and this average that does to the tenth of a decimal place is very skewed from a purely statistical standpoint.

From that data it seems like .1 yds separates teams into tiers (5-6 levels across the 32 team league) and .5-.6 is the difference of all 32 teams (the top 15 is seperated by .333, so I’ll carelessly assuming doubling that to .666 is the difference for the other half the league).

ill do the math for everyone... 

.1yds = 3.6 inches
.6yds = just under 24 inches = 2ft = .666 yds

so unless the person measuring the separation is able to measure the separation of the WRs on every play down to the .1 (3.6”) or really the .01 (.36”) then this data is useless.  
There is zero way of measuring separation and calculating it into Statistics, unless every player is wearing some type of insanely precise GPS device inbedded into their helmet or underarmour type shirt.  Even then the difference in player arm lengths (28-36??) (that’s 7 inches and that 7 inch variable is 1/3 of the difference between the avg separation of the top and bottom team) would require it to be inbedded into their gloves.  
 

thus you’d literally need every player wearing crazy sensors in Their gloves to make these stats valid.  And even then there’s way too many variables to make the data valid.  

Our WR core is a problem,, it’s a collective of a low-mid tier #2 WR whose heal is still messed up (T.Williams) and an injured average to above average, but very reliable slot WR in Renfrow.  Then there’s Doss and Ateman and Zay Jones who COULD be good but they also could just as easily be cut next year.  Their replacement level 4-6 WRs.

We have no playmakers.  We have no one that is going to challenge deep or bust some crazy AB type double move and get wide open.  Teams can sit back and jump routes.... see the Mathias Int.  It’s just like when we played the Chargers (I definitely typed San Diego then corrected myself... that one will never click with me) and Erik Harris was literally jumping routes left and right, to the tune of 3 Ints plus 1 drop and 1 Int called back for penalty, if my memory is correct).  Rivers was trash.  
 

I knew we’d eventually collapse because our offense wasn’t that good.  Teams figure it out quickly.  We don’t challenge defenses deep! 
 

we need a true #1 and a #3 added to this group to be a playoff team.

I don’t think we need a Julio Jones #1 because Carr spreads the ball around well but we need a Kenny Golliday/Mike Williams/Corey Davis type #1.  We can get away with a bottom tier #1 and a solid #2 plus Renfrow and Jones.

Well thought out post using facts not emotion.  Measuring separation is basically useless unless you have accurate sensors just like you have pointed out.  

It doest take a rocket scientist to figure out our WR's are trash.  Williams is an average #2 and the rest are below average, Renfow has shown good hands out of the slot but the jury is still out as to how good he will be.  The rest of our WR's are castoff garbage.  

We badly need a number 1 and we need to fill a ton of holes on our a beyond terrible D.  Our whole LB crew needs to hit the unemployment line as we need a complete revamping of that position. 

This team is not a playoff team and never has been this year.  After a few lucky wins this team had uneducated fools thinking they were playoff contenders.  A bunch of homers on here though this trash roster was playoff caliber lol Right before the season started I said we have the roster of a 4 to 6 win team and I still stand behind that.  

This team needs a lot of work and anyone blaming these losses on Carr is about as clueless as they come.  Knowing that he will have to put up 40 on a weekly basis to contend bc his D can't stop a nose bleed is not easy for any QB.  The whole game plan is thrown out the window when a team drives down on their first couple of possessions and we're down by multiple scores and the whole team knows that the points wont stop there.  

A good FA haul and hitting on some draft picks next year will be a major step in the right direction but I have a feeling this team is about 2 years away from contention and that is based on getting good value through FA's and hitting on draft picks.  

Also do you fans really think Mayock is that stupid to get rid of Carr this offseason?  Let's say Carr lands in Tenn, Chi or Jax this offseason and takes them deep into the playoffs which is a very good possibility on teams constructed like they are.  Whoever Mayock drafts or picks up off the scrap heap better be a vast improvement over Carr and certainly better not be a bust or else Mayock will lose his job.  I hope no one on here really thinks Mayock is that stupid to take a foolish risk like that unless an uber elite Qb prospect falls into his lap.  I also like Mayock as he appears to be no nonsense and I like the picks he made in this years draft. 

Once again I want people to list building block QB's who are better than Carr.  I am fascinated to see who fans think are better building block QB's than Carr.  

Edited December 8, 2019 by Frankie2Gunz

[BayRaider]

2 hours ago, NJ Raider said:

He gets rid of the ball way too quickly and panics constantly. I too was wondering why he didn't throw to Waller on the pick six play. He was 1on1 with a lb. Don't get it. Watching this made me aggravated and some of these open receivers are right in front of him. I can only imagine how aggravated Gruden gets watching this on film. If he falls in love with a qb in the draft, I don't think they hesitate this year.

Fully agreed with entire post. One of Carrs biggest flaws has always been he gets rid of the ball too early and doesn’t let things develop, yet people use to praise him for getting rid of the ball so quick. Every play requires you to look at it with substance. 

If Gruden/Mayock see a QB they want, it’s a wrap for Carr. I’m hoping Tua is there. He’s better than Carr in almost every way and will make us better his first day. 

[SilverNBlackFan]

56 minutes ago, Frankie2Gunz said:

This team needs a lot of work and anyone blaming these losses on Carr is about as clueless as they come.  Knowing that he will have to put up 40 on a weekly basis to contend bc his D can't stop a nose bleed is not easy for any QB.  

Lmao 40 points? The most we've scored this year was 31 and I think we had a pick six to aid that number. How about he just puts up more than 12 points in two weeks. Forget 40 points, let's start with that. In fact, the last two weeks he has scored more points for the other two teams than he has scored for us. Just pathetic.

Carr is what he is. He's purgatory at it's finest. A soft average QB who will have 4 good to great games a year against bad teams in perfect conditions that will give people hope that maybe just maybe the 2016 DC is back. But whenever he plays a team worth a damn, he crumbles. I really struggle to name one truly good team that Carr has beaten in his career. He's not a building block he's a placeholder until you find a replacement.

[jimkelly02]

I read on Fans In Black that these “stats” are only for completions, which makes sense, and wasn’t considered in my initial response, because  how do you measure Separation on a incomplete pass, a WR could have 10 yards of separation but the CB was far closer to the ball?

the only thing these “stats” show is what we already know: Carr Is often reluctant to throw to WRs that are not “wide open”.  
Carr haters will say he doesn’t give his WRs a chance while supporters will say he doesn’t have the talent to take chances with and he’s being conservative for a good reason.  
 

personally, id like him to take more chances but that surely will Result in more INTs.  Im also not anywhere close to confident with our WRs in jump or tight coverage situations.  Lastly, I contend that this offensive scheme seems to favor check down to shorter but more open receivers then tight window throws.

at the end of the day / the reality is....

this offense was built on having an AB talent to receive the majority of the throws and last minute the POS left.  We played with resiliency and guys like Waller and Jacobs stepped up.  But eventually teams figured us out and when they can scheme the two talents we have out of the game we have no one to step up and make plays.  We’re to predictable.  We don’t scare anyone deep.  Jam the WRs, scheme to get Waller covered, then have the safeties jump the throws cuz There’s zero worry of anyone going deep.

[Frankie2Gunz]

40 minutes ago, SilverNBlackFan said:

Lmao 40 points? The most we've scored this year was 31 and I think we had a pick six to aid that number. How about he just puts up more than 12 points in two weeks. Forget 40 points, let's start with that. In fact, the last two weeks he has scored more points for the other two teams than he has scored for us. Just pathetic.

Carr is what he is. He's purgatory at it's finest. A soft average QB who will have 4 good to great games a year against bad teams in perfect conditions that will give people hope that maybe just maybe the 2016 DC is back. But whenever he plays a team worth a damn, he crumbles. I really struggle to name one truly good team that Carr has beaten in his career. He's not a building block he's a placeholder until you find a replacement.

Name the building block Qb's you'd rather have than Carr.  

[OG_C2X]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Fully agreed with entire post. One of Carrs biggest flaws has always been he gets rid of the ball too early and doesn’t let things develop, yet people use to praise him for getting rid of the ball so quick. Every play requires you to look at it with substance. 

If Gruden/Mayock see a QB they want, it’s a wrap for Carr. I’m hoping Tua is there. He’s better than Carr in almost every way and will make us better his first day. 

I hope Tua is there, so when we pass on him, I can ask you what happened? 

I get your not happy with Carr, and that is fine you are entitled to that. But stop projecting your dislike for Carr into that the Raiders don't like Carr. You are in denial. Gruden and Mayock love the guy.

[Frankie2Gunz]

52 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

I read on Fans In Black that these “stats” are only for completions, which makes sense, and wasn’t considered in my initial response, because  how do you measure Separation on a incomplete pass, a WR could have 10 yards of separation but the CB was far closer to the ball?

the only thing these “stats” show is what we already know: Carr Is often reluctant to throw to WRs that are not “wide open”.  
Carr haters will say he doesn’t give his WRs a chance while supporters will say he doesn’t have the talent to take chances with and he’s being conservative for a good reason.  
 

personally, id like him to take more chances but that surely will Result in more INTs.  Im also not anywhere close to confident with our WRs in jump or tight coverage situations.  Lastly, I contend that this offensive scheme seems to favor check down to shorter but more open receivers then tight window throws.

at the end of the day / the reality is....

this offense was built on having an AB talent to receive the majority of the throws and last minute the POS left.  We played with resiliency and guys like Waller and Jacobs stepped up.  But eventually teams figured us out and when they can scheme the two talents we have out of the game we have no one to step up and make plays.  We’re to predictable.  We don’t scare anyone deep.  Jam the WRs, scheme to get Waller covered, then have the safeties jump the throws cuz There’s zero worry of anyone going deep.

You clearly get it....  The last minute loss of AB was catastrophic to this team as he was the missing elite #1 this team hasn't had anytime in Carr's career.  We don't scare anyone deep and never have, our WR's cant win contested balls because they are one of the worst WR's groups in the NFL and fans want Carr to force the ball deep to the bums.  If he does this he would take a tremendous number of sacks and would turn the ball over at an alarming rate.  

Our WR's are like owning a flock of Pintos with the uneducated fans not comprehending their limitations and expecting them to preform like a Ferrari's.  It's quite bizarre how little people understand how much of a team sport football is.  

One of my favorites is how important D play is for any QB but most average fans can't grasp that concept.  If you're always playing from behind, which Carr is the majority of the time, it alters most every aspect of the overall game plan.  We clearly don't have the personal to win shootouts on both sides of the ball yet fans want Ferrari 0 to 60 times when we have a fleet of Pintos.  

Edited December 8, 2019 by Frankie2Gunz