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How deep is your "top tier"?


PossibleCabbage

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1. Ed Oliver

2. Nick Bosa

3. TJ Hockenson

4. Quinnen Williams

5. Christian Wilkins

6. Devin White

7. George Aston

8. Clelin Ferrell

9. Josh Allen

10. Deandre Baker

11. Dexter Lawrence

12. Andre Dillard

13. DK Metcalf

14. Garrett Bradbury

15. N'Keal Harry

16. Marquise Brown

17. Joe Jackson

18. Taylor Rapp

19. AJ Brown

20. Chris Lindstrom

21. Diontae Johnson

22. Dwayne Haskins

23. Greg Dortch

24. Jachai Polite

25. Jeffery Simmons

26. Kyler Murray

27. Greedy Williams

28. Devin Bush

29. Montez Sweat

30. Noah Fant

31. Jaquan Johnson

32. Greg Gaines

 

 

 

All of these players are at guys I have graded out as AT LEAST "Very good starters." The order of those players is a little wonky and I need to go back and break up several tied grades. Also, I don't factor in positional importance which is why George Aston is so high on my list and Haskins/Murray are so low.

 

I think this is a fairly strong draft class with a great amount of depth in spots like WR, RB, DE, TE, and OG.

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Still tinkering with things, but at this point i'd break it down like:

7 Players in my "top tier".  Bosa, Allen, Oliver, Quinnen, Hockenson, Jonah, with Metcalf kinda tagging in at the fringes on "upside" even though the risk scares me.

Plus 1 QB in Haskins who i'd call "Top-10 worthy", but consider kinda separate since QB is a weird position that doesn't adhere to the normal rules of "draft value" due to it's importance.

 

Then overall, i've got ~20 total guys i'd call solid 1st Rounders (including those 8 above).  Wouldn't be at all surprised to see at least one or two of them still available at the beginning of Day 2 though, because that's how it generally works.  And by the same token, at the moment i've got more than 32 guys i'd call solid 2nd Rounders.

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On 30/03/2019 at 2:45 PM, HoboRocket said:

I know that I have Thorson graded [significantly] higher than virtually everyone. I also have Zach Allen and AJ Brown rated a bit higher than the majority 

Thorson seems like such a polarizing prospect.  I like him an awful lot too, and i've read blurbs that among numerous NFL scouts surveyed, none had worse than a 3rd round grade on him.  But i've also seen plenty of late round grades on him from people who just really don't like him at all.  It's always kinda the nature of QBs, either you like 'em and think they could make it, or you don't.  But Thorson seems to be extra polarizing for some reason.

I see a guy with prototypical size, decent mobility, and a pretty good arm.  More accurate than the numbers reflect, with touch, timing and ability to read a defense.  Who elevated his program despite a really lackluster supporting cast.  Not sure what there is to really dislike there, but evidently there's plenty for some people...

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First round grades:

QB [1]
Haskins

RB  [NONE]

WR [2]
DK Metcalf
Hakeem Butler

TE [2]
TJ Hockenson
Noah Fant

OT [2]
Jawaan Taylor
Jonah Williams

IOL [NONE]

EDGE [5/6**]
Nick Bosa
Josh Allen
Clelin Ferrell
Montez Sweat
Brian Burns
Rashan Gary**

DI [3/5*]
Ed Oliver
Quinnen Williams
Christian Wilkins
Jeffery Simmons*
Rashan Gary**

LB [2]
Devin White
Devin Bush

CB [2]
Greedy Williams
Deandre Baker

S [NONE]

 

Total: 21
Offense: 7
Defense: 14

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6 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Thorson seems like such a polarizing prospect.  I like him an awful lot too, and i've read blurbs that among numerous NFL scouts surveyed, none had worse than a 3rd round grade on him.  But i've also seen plenty of late round grades on him from people who just really don't like him at all.  It's always kinda the nature of QBs, either you like 'em and think they could make it, or you don't.  But Thorson seems to be extra polarizing for some reason.

I see a guy with prototypical size, decent mobility, and a pretty good arm.  More accurate than the numbers reflect, with touch, timing and ability to read a defense.  Who elevated his program despite a really lackluster supporting cast.  Not sure what there is to really dislike there, but evidently there's plenty for some people...

I think people dislike him because he didn't progress by leaps and bounds this past year. He got better at reading defenses and seeing the field, but his overall game was hurt by the injury he sustained in his bowl game last year. Not to compare him as a player to Russell Wilson, because he's not the same type of QB, different skillset, but a lot of his game depended upon his ability to be mobile in the pocket and there was obviously also the rushing aspect of his game, where he's actually really good - Blake Bortles type mobility. When he got hurt, he lost that aspect of his game and his ability to make up for a weaker O-line and the loss of Justin Jackson diminished. So here's where the Wilson comp comes in: I think it was 2016 where Wilson had the injured MCL, and he learned to play like a different type of QB in order to make his team better. It didn't all happen that season, it wasn't until 2017 where he really was able to apply all that experience and combine it with his restored mobility to really make him great. Thorson this year, with his injury, had to learn the way 2016 Wilson did. He improved his game as a pure pocket passer enough to launch Northwestern to the Big 10 Championship. He still had some mobility, and really fought back to return from a January injury in time to play the whole season - toughness is off the charts. His mobility was only about 60-70% of what is was, though, and it improved as the season progressed. I expect Thorson to make a leap similar to the 16 Wilson vs 17 Wilson. Again, different skillset, different overall type of QB, but similar challenge and situation. 

And that's the thing with Thorson. He's showed he can grow. He's shown an it factor to make everyone around him better and carry his team. He's had enormous fortitude to come back from the major back injury to play the most starts in Big 10 history. He's a fighter. He can learn. Super high character. Yeah, there were some minor inconsistencies as he tried to do too much (because he had to) and was always in a sticky situation, but he got better. Yeah, maybe not as much as some would like. Maybe that's because he had the back injury. I don't know about you, but I played QB through high school, and it's dang hard to make throws when your back is missed up. Hurts your mobility too. Thorson is a grinder.

Steal QB of the draft.

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