pacman5252 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 12 hours ago, JaireAlex said: Why why why? Please no.......... Still, if true, I wonder who they have. And Gute DID say trading up was an option. If there’s a guy they love, if it only costs a third, I don’t have an issue with it. Getting a high value scheme fit is more important than an extra third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacman5252 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 12 hours ago, Pilprin said: Would you trade 12 and 30 for 24, 27, and 35? I think no, but it would be a challenging thought...12 to 24 is a long drop Probably not. The board would have to go horribly. History says drafts typically only have 15-25 real first round prospects. We’ve been stuck in the late 20s the last decade (outside last year) drafting guys without a high end ceiling with flaws. I’d like to take a cleaner high end prospect. We’d likely be giving up on Burns or Ed Oliver (legit high end prospects), for like Montez Sweat or Chase Winovich and pick 35. That doesn’t sound worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 6 hours ago, pacman5252 said: Probably not. The board would have to go horribly. History says drafts typically only have 15-25 real first round prospects. We’ve been stuck in the late 20s the last decade (outside last year) drafting guys without a high end ceiling with flaws. I’d like to take a cleaner high end prospect. We’d likely be giving up on Burns or Ed Oliver (legit high end prospects), for like Montez Sweat or Chase Winovich and pick 35. That doesn’t sound worth it. The idea that there are only (typically) 15-25 legit first round picks is, well, almost meaningless. The first round is only different from other rounds because of the possibility of an extra year on the first contract. Beyond that, there isn't much difference between pick 32 and pick 33 (excepting the first round being held on an earlier day). All the picks will be picked no matter how that first round is rated, so all this does, is describe (badly) a portion of the draft relative to other years. Every year, the draft (subject to NFL imposed penalties) has 32 first round picks. Any statement that suggests a typical number of 15-25 legit first rounders must be false, because the average should be 32, above it on some years, below it in others, but averaging 32. Far more sensible to do as teams do, construct their draft board horizontally and vertically, in other words a series of mini-boards for each position group that stacks the players relative to each other, contained within a bigger board that shows the relative rating of players across all position groups. Teams use tiers, which is another subjective ranking, but has the benefits of not being limited to one defined round and is actually useful. Tiers help a GM decide whether he can trade down a few spots and still get roughly equivalent value, if there are several players in the highest tier still on the board. It can help decide whether it is worth trying to deal to move up into a higher tier, or just stay put. Using tiers and draft boards in the way they do, can help teams in the critical decisions that come with each pick. I don't mean to trash pacman5252's whole post, since it was only the one sentence I bolded, that I had issue with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 10 hours ago, Jaegybomb said: Sure, some can't see it but he's already miles ahead of anyone else picking up the position as soon as he has and there is every reason to believe he can too. He's a project, a projection but the upside is insane and unlike Metcalf it's at a position where raw talent converts on the field more often than not making him easily a top 10 pick. I don't want any more projects. I want players that can contribute now and for the next 5 years. We've had to wait to long on to many players the past few years and I for one don't want any more of it. Give me guys that can get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 40 minutes ago, coachbuns said: I don't want any more projects. I want players that can contribute now and for the next 5 years. We've had to wait to long on to many players the past few years and I for one don't want any more of it. Give me guys that can get it done. Okay, be prepared then for a lot of Jake Ryan and Jamal Williams kinda dudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacman5252 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said: The idea that there are only (typically) 15-25 legit first round picks is, well, almost meaningless. The first round is only different from other rounds because of the possibility of an extra year on the first contract. Beyond that, there isn't much difference between pick 32 and pick 33 (excepting the first round being held on an earlier day). All the picks will be picked no matter how that first round is rated, so all this does, is describe (badly) a portion of the draft relative to other years. Every year, the draft (subject to NFL imposed penalties) has 32 first round picks. Any statement that suggests a typical number of 15-25 legit first rounders must be false, because the average should be 32, above it on some years, below it in others, but averaging 32. Far more sensible to do as teams do, construct their draft board horizontally and vertically, in other words a series of mini-boards for each position group that stacks the players relative to each other, contained within a bigger board that shows the relative rating of players across all position groups. Teams use tiers, which is another subjective ranking, but has the benefits of not being limited to one defined round and is actually useful. Tiers help a GM decide whether he can trade down a few spots and still get roughly equivalent value, if there are several players in the highest tier still on the board. It can help decide whether it is worth trying to deal to move up into a higher tier, or just stay put. Using tiers and draft boards in the way they do, can help teams in the critical decisions that come with each pick. I don't mean to trash pacman5252's whole post, since it was only the one sentence I bolded, that I had issue with. I do get what you’re saying and agree with a lot of it. There are 32 1sts, and there is basically no difference between pick 32/33 (I’d even say there’s little difference from pick 25-45). Teiring prospects is the way to go. The point of the 15-25 remark I made was more along the lines that there are typically only 15-25 picks that are graded in as blue chip teir prospects (or as I defined first round prospects, or what would be in your highest miniboard). At 12 we have a real shot at one. 24/27 it gets dicey, which we’ve experienced first hand. The discussion was about trading 12 for essentially 24/35, which I wouldn’t. We’ve been on the outside looking in at high end pass rushers the last decade .The last one we took we traded 3 seconds for. The draft is looking like we have a legit shot a potential face of D player (Burns/Oliver) and fans want to give that up for an extra red chip player? I get liking another shot, but no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHARMON9 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 Boss, Allen, Williams, Oliver, Sweat, Burns, White. We can't get 1 of those 7 with our pick??? QBS - Murray and Haskins imo go top 10 OT- Dillard/Taylor/Williams. One should go top 10 WR Metcalf might get over drafted based on numbers. The way people rave about The Iowa TEs one may slip in the top 10. Hockerson. Corner - Maybe one can slip in. R.E.L.A.X we will get a great prospect. Lets get a game changer for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 Just now, GHARMON9 said: Boss, Allen, Williams, Oliver, Sweat, Burns, White. We can't get 1 of those 7 with our pick??? QBS - Murray and Haskins imo go top 10 OT- Dillard/Taylor/Williams. One should go top 10 WR Metcalf might get over drafted based on numbers. The way people rave about The Iowa TEs one may slip in the top 10. Hockerson. Corner - Maybe one can slip in. R.E.L.A.X we will get a great prospect. Lets get a game changer for once. I've been trying to point this out to people here, but everybody here acts like there are 17 top 11 picks. I've gone over this ad nauseum, and it's always ignored, everybody is always going to be gone. I'm confident in: Three quarterbacks One WR One TE One ILB One OL One CB Go in the top 12. Mix and match the numbers for those 6 positions, and take one away to be safe and you've got 7 players we don't want taken in the top 12. With five picks left, 1. Bosa 2. Q. Williams 3. Josh Allen 4. Ed Oliver 5. Gary One of those players will be available, and possibly more than one of them if a team really likes Burns or Sweat or Ferrell... Bottom line is that the best prospect the Packers have had a chance at drafting since BJ Raji will be available at 12th overall no matter how you look at it, and unless you get insane value like 24, 27 and 35 for 12th alone or a 20-30 first plus second pick plus a 2020 first round pick, you take the best prospect you've had a chance at in ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 56 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: I've been trying to point this out to people here, but everybody here acts like there are 17 top 11 picks. I've gone over this ad nauseum, and it's always ignored, everybody is always going to be gone. I'm confident in: Three quarterbacks One WR One TE One ILB One OL One CB Go in the top 12. Mix and match the numbers for those 6 positions, and take one away to be safe and you've got 7 players we don't want taken in the top 12. With five picks left, 1. Bosa 2. Q. Williams 3. Josh Allen 4. Ed Oliver 5. Gary One of those players will be available, and possibly more than one of them if a team really likes Burns or Sweat or Ferrell... Bottom line is that the best prospect the Packers have had a chance at drafting since BJ Raji will be available at 12th overall no matter how you look at it, and unless you get insane value like 24, 27 and 35 for 12th alone or a 20-30 first plus second pick plus a 2020 first round pick, you take the best prospect you've had a chance at in ten years. The opinions expressed here have been stated by others (including myself) before. So, you are not alone. Others are tuned in on the same frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hands Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 I posted on another site that a well know scout had his horizontal and vertical boards done and according to him...there were no players that warranted top 5 selections. Obviously there will be picks in the top five but this year's draft class doesn't have top five talent. Also said there were only 23 players that were ranked in the first round. So if you are Green Bay, you keep your 12 selection and if a trade situation happens...you only move down a few spots. Then use the extra picks to bundle them and move the 30th pick into the top 23. Right now it appears 1 QB and maybe two go into the first 10 picks. If that's the case...Green Bay will get one of the 10 best players available if they don't trade out. I asked a friend who is very knowledgeable if the 23 number and none in the top five seemed right and he confirmed it to be a sort of consensuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hands said: I posted on another site that a well know scout had his horizontal and vertical boards done and according to him...there were no players that warranted top 5 selections. Obviously there will be picks in the top five but this year's draft class doesn't have top five talent. Also said there were only 23 players that were ranked in the first round. So if you are Green Bay, you keep your 12 selection and if a trade situation happens...you only move down a few spots. Then use the extra picks to bundle them and move the 30th pick into the top 23. Right now it appears 1 QB and maybe two go into the first 10 picks. If that's the case...Green Bay will get one of the 10 best players available if they don't trade out. I asked a friend who is very knowledgeable if the 23 number and none in the top five seemed right and he confirmed it to be a sort of consensuses. Interesting comment, but it's lacking in a sense. There isnt top 5 talent - relative to what? Or whom? Clearly there has to be top 5 talent in any grouping of players. Somebody's gotta be better than the others. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Outpost31 said: I've been trying to point this out to people here, but everybody here acts like there are 17 top 11 picks. I've gone over this ad nauseum, and it's always ignored, everybody is always going to be gone. I'm confident in: Three quarterbacks One WR One TE One ILB One OL One CB Go in the top 12. Mix and match the numbers for those 6 positions, and take one away to be safe and you've got 7 players we don't want taken in the top 12. With five picks left, 1. Bosa 2. Q. Williams 3. Josh Allen 4. Ed Oliver 5. Gary One of those players will be available, and possibly more than one of them if a team really likes Burns or Sweat or Ferrell... Bottom line is that the best prospect the Packers have had a chance at drafting since BJ Raji will be available at 12th overall no matter how you look at it, and unless you get insane value like 24, 27 and 35 for 12th alone or a 20-30 first plus second pick plus a 2020 first round pick, you take the best prospect you've had a chance at in ten years. He’s super talented, but Gary would scare the hell out of me at 12. Obviously could be BS from NYG but would impact where the pass rushers go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 51 minutes ago, Hands said: I posted on another site that a well know scout had his horizontal and vertical boards done and according to him...there were no players that warranted top 5 selections. Obviously there will be picks in the top five but this year's draft class doesn't have top five talent. Also said there were only 23 players that were ranked in the first round. So if you are Green Bay, you keep your 12 selection and if a trade situation happens...you only move down a few spots. Then use the extra picks to bundle them and move the 30th pick into the top 23. Right now it appears 1 QB and maybe two go into the first 10 picks. If that's the case...Green Bay will get one of the 10 best players available if they don't trade out. I asked a friend who is very knowledgeable if the 23 number and none in the top five seemed right and he confirmed it to be a sort of consensuses. This doesn't make sense to me with the production and measureables of some of the front 7 guys in the draft this year. Bosa and Q Williams at a minimum are top 3-5 guys every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MantyWrestler Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, incognito_man said: This doesn't make sense to me with the production and measureables of some of the front 7 guys in the draft this year. Bosa and Q Williams at a minimum are top 3-5 guys every year. I’d throw Allen in that group too. Size, strength, maturity, speed and production are elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 3 hours ago, Outpost31 said: I've been trying to point this out to people here, but everybody here acts like there are 17 top 11 picks. I've gone over this ad nauseum, and it's always ignored, everybody is always going to be gone. I'm confident in: Three quarterbacks One WR One TE One ILB One OL One CB Go in the top 12. Mix and match the numbers for those 6 positions, and take one away to be safe and you've got 7 players we don't want taken in the top 12. With five picks left, 1. Bosa 2. Q. Williams 3. Josh Allen 4. Ed Oliver 5. Gary One of those players will be available, and possibly more than one of them if a team really likes Burns or Sweat or Ferrell... Bottom line is that the best prospect the Packers have had a chance at drafting since BJ Raji will be available at 12th overall no matter how you look at it, and unless you get insane value like 24, 27 and 35 for 12th alone or a 20-30 first plus second pick plus a 2020 first round pick, you take the best prospect you've had a chance at in ten years. This could happen but it's not likely. The odds that 3 QB's go before us are slim and none. In fact, there is a chance if Arizona passes ZERO QB's go. The Giants seem to be heading in a different direction. We'll see though. I'm not sure we get a CB or WR in the top 12 either. I'd love to have a shot at Ed Oliver, but his pro day makes that very unlikely IMO. Bosa, Williams and Allen, I'm 99.9% sure they are gone as well. Gary scares me, he's a great athlete that doesn't translate to production on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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