turtle28 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Woz said: Honestly, I think the offense should just approach this coming season as "Eff it. No one believes in us, let's just like it's on a sandlot." They'll still lose but at least it might be entertaining. Pretty much took that approach when they traded for Keenum and that’s Colt’s game too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 @e16bball thanks for pointing out what I was saying about Alex last year, but it’s a battle we can’t win, even when the stats back it up. People just remember the Colts game for example in the 4th quarter when no one got open, so Alex made the smart plays and gave it to the winder was guys to go run and make first downs. Something by the way they every QB does in the NFL, our former QB surely did that a lot as do the leagues elite QBs if nothing is open downfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A TRAIN 89 Posted March 31, 2019 Author Share Posted March 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, e16bball said: Just so we’re clear, Alex Smith threw the ball further downfield than Keenum last season — by every Next Gen metric there is. Higher average Completed Air Yards, higher average Intended Air Yards (by a wide margin), higher average Yards to the Stick. And in Colt McCoy’s two starts, he threw precisely 3 passes further than 20 yards down the field (out of 42 attempts). One of them was the back-breaking INT against Dallas on Thanksgiving. I’m very aware that the narrative is that the reason the Redskins offense stunk in 2018 is because Alex refused to throw it downfield. Not going to waste my time fighting that battle with people whose preconceived notions led them to conclude that was the big problem — despite all the advanced statistical evidence that says otherwise — but I’ll simply try to make the point that the two QBs currently on the roster were not gambling down the field regularly last season. And I’ll try to make the related point that what we really need is some offensive weaponry (especially at the WR position) that can get open and make plays after the catch. I think that’s the most glaring weakness on this team, even more than the LB corps. Especially after Crowder hit the road. I wouldn’t be mad at all if they doubled up on the WR position in the first two days of the draft. As much as we need a pass-rusher and an ILB and a LG and probably another safety, our next QB is going to need some reliable and explosive weapons. In my opinion, there isn't much of a difference between Smith, McCoy and Keenum. To your point, improving the talent at the skill positions on offense will make the biggest difference and the FO has done exactly nothing to address that. This draft is going to say a lot about what this FO think about Jay Gruden and his future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Bo Duke said: We need a reciever and a left guard, I think the offense has potential. I knew just like most others that Smith was conservative to a fault. Made for some boring football at times but it was effective. When the run was stopped it got ugly in a hurry. Keenum, McCoy or a drafted Drew Lock would at least put the ball down the field which would stop teams from stacking the box. The coaching staff also needs to quit saying cover 2 is why they didn't throw deep. Sometimes you just have to chuck it anyways Add TE to that. None of our current starters can block worth a damn and in the passing game they haven't been threats that keep OC's worried for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 1 hour ago, e16bball said: Just so we’re clear, Alex Smith threw the ball further downfield than Keenum last season — by every Next Gen metric there is. Higher average Completed Air Yards, higher average Intended Air Yards (by a wide margin), higher average Yards to the Stick. And in Colt McCoy’s two starts, he threw precisely 3 passes further than 20 yards down the field (out of 42 attempts). One of them was the back-breaking INT against Dallas on Thanksgiving. I’m very aware that the narrative is that the reason the Redskins offense stunk in 2018 is because Alex refused to throw it downfield. Not going to waste my time fighting that battle with people whose preconceived notions led them to conclude that was the big problem — despite all the advanced statistical evidence that says otherwise — but I’ll simply try to make the point that the two QBs currently on the roster were not gambling down the field regularly last season. Huh? In the Dallas game alone he had 7 deep throws. If you're only talking completions that is one thing. But attempts also keeps the defense honest too. It also draws PI as well. Which happened when we took more shots. I don't want to relitigate the issue either, but to say that Colt wasn't attempting deep passes is not correct. In that one game alone, he took 7 shots that were considered deep. Quote And I’ll try to make the related point that what we really need is some offensive weaponry (especially at the WR position) that can get open and make plays after the catch. I think that’s the most glaring weakness on this team, even more than the LB corps. Especially after Crowder hit the road. I wouldn’t be mad at all if they doubled up on the WR position in the first two days of the draft. As much as we need a pass-rusher and an ILB and a LG and probably another safety, our next QB is going to need some reliable and explosive weapons. Agreed here. I'm in on getting some WRs drafted. And if we can add a stud TE by the end of the 3rd I'm good with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 @Thaiphoon look at this chart. As @e16bball said, Colt attempted 3 longer than 20 yards and completed one pass longer than 20 yards vs Dallas. Where do you get that he attempted 7 passes that we’re considered deep throws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, turtle28 said: @Thaiphoon look at this chart. As @e16bball said, Colt attempted 3 longer than 20 yards and completed one pass longer than 20 yards vs Dallas. Where do you get that he attempted 7 passes that we’re considered deep throws? A) there's no chart attached B) Go to the play by play of the actual game. He attempted 7 "deep" (*) throws. (*) as defined by the NFL. C) you guys might only going by completions. Which is not the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 Just now, Thaiphoon said: A) there's no chart attached B) Go to the play by play of the actual game. He attempted 7 "deep" (*) throws. (*) as defined by the NFL. Sorry I copied the nfl next gen stats and it wouldn’t post. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/colt-mccoy/MCC603149/2018/12/pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Sorry I copied the nfl next gen stats and it wouldn’t post. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/colt-mccoy/MCC603149/2018/12/pass Yup. And the NFL considers anything 15+ yards "deep". It's the same metric that is used for every other QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 The point I'm making is about the current two QBs on the roster (as E pointed out). I think Colt will push the ball downfield. I don't think he's going to simply let the defense dictate to him (although you do have to do it at times you still need to challenge them) every game. Our other QB did that in a few games, which is good. But not enough for my taste. But we're talking about Colt and Keenum. Between the two of them I'd rather have Colt starting. But he is still rehabbing, so not sure what we're gonna get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 26 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said: Yup. And the NFL considers anything 15+ yards "deep". It's the same metric that is used for every other QB. Oh ok, well fans and the media always talk about talk about 20 yards downfield So, here are Alex’s throws vs Indy in week 2. Three passes 20 yards downfield, 10 that were 15 yards downfield. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/alex-smith/SMI031126/2018/2/pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Oh ok, well fans and the media always talk about talk about 20 yards downfield And in which case, it looks even worse for Alex (which you're trying to defend here even though my point was about the 2 QBs currently on the roster Quote So, here are Alex’s throws vs Indy in week 2. Three passes 20 yards downfield, 10 that were 15 yards downfield. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/alex-smith/SMI031126/2018/2/pass Nope. Looking at it now. 2 went for 14 yards (almost 15) so wouldn't be considered "Deep" 5 that were 15-20 yards. 3 that were 20+. You're adding all those together to say 10 pass attempts at 15 yards (or 15-20). Which isn't the case. The better argument for you is "at least 8 attempts that were 15+". Which I will agree with. But none while we were two scores down. Which again, these stats don't show. And again, is why he was killed for that game. It's literally like groundhog day again because @Woz and I keep telling you that was the problem that most had with how he played. No urgency and no dictating to the defense when we needed it. And two scores down, with 7 minutes left, you don't dump off to the RB in the middle of the field when he's covered. Part of that is play calling. But a lot of that is the QB turning down a route he should be throwing to (oh and spare me the straw man that you always counter with regarding throwing up hundreds of passes all game regardless of coverage. It's not what either @Woz or I have argued) Either way, let's get back to examining Colt vs. Case. Because Alex is not playing for us in 2019. If the goal is to tank even more than we could, I say go with Case. But if we want a guy who will take more shots downfield between those two, it's Colt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 I think Keenum is probably the better QB between he and McCoy. Aside from a 5 game span in 2014 when he had the benefit of a very good offense around him, Colt has basically never been good. He certainly wasn’t good last season on this very offense. Keenum has the glorious 2017 season to his name, in addition to a pretty decent stretch with the Rams in 2015 and an at least half-decent campaign with the Broncos last year. If we’re trying to tank, I’d lean towards Colt. But they’ll both probably get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Yeah, I mean the only way we escape not being slightly below average or worse this year is by some miracle CT, Doctson, PRich and Reed - our top 4 weapons - stay healthy for once. That’s very unlikely. Our top 4 receiving weapons on our offense haven’t all stayed healthy that I ever remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 45 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Yeah, I mean the only way we escape not being slightly below average or worse this year is by some miracle CT, Doctson, PRich and Reed - our top 4 weapons - stay healthy for once. That’s very unlikely. Our top 4 receiving weapons on our offense haven’t all stayed healthy that I ever remember. This is key and it's where I agree with you and @e16bball very much. We need healthy playmakers at the position. We don't have them. If we get reasonably good production from our OL, even an average QB can do well. But that is provided we have guys who get open. Right now, we have no one who scares anyone because they either aren't very good, or they are in the training room and not on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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