Standardized career QB stats(post-04)

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

1 hour ago, childofpudding said:

Nice! I particularly like that ANY/A differential number, which helps account for era. Solid work.

would you want me to do it for other players outside of the modern era? 

[Raves]

So with all these stats being tossed out there, is it still taboo to say that Brees rightfully deserves to be in the conversation as the best QB along with Brady, Manning, and Rodgers?  Seems like every time I've made the argument that he deserves in the conversation, not even saying he's the best, I get blasted with people saying he doesn't belong in the conversation and it's not even close.

[Jlowe22]

6 minutes ago, Raves said:

So with all these stats being tossed out there, is it still taboo to say that Brees rightfully deserves to be in the conversation as the best QB along with Brady, Manning, and Rodgers?  Seems like every time I've made the argument that he deserves in the conversation, not even saying he's the best, I get blasted with people saying he doesn't belong in the conversation and it's not even close.

It’s within the same realm, IMO.  But I do think, and have always thought Peyton and Brady were both better QBs, save for a few years.

[Raves]

5 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

It’s within the same realm, IMO.  But I do think, and have always thought Peyton and Brady were both better QBs, save for a few years.

Which is fine by me.  But most think it's ridiculous to even have Brees in the same conversation with Peyton/Brady/Rodgers and I think that's wrong.  Brees seems to have had the problem where every year he ends up just behind at #2 or #3 but was never able to have both a great season as well as the surrounding team around him for him to get the acknowledgement he deserves.  Like all the talking heads bring up every QB under the sun, Cam/Ryan/Wilson/Luck/Ben/Wentz/Rivers/etc,  but always seem to forget about Brees when discussing top QBs.

[Jlowe22]

7 hours ago, Raves said:

 Like all the talking heads bring up every QB under the sun, Cam/Ryan/Wilson/Luck/Ben/Wentz/Rivers/etc,  but always seem to forget about Brees when discussing top QBs.

I would say that is true for most every year except last year.  He did get a lot of credit last year, and he earned it.

[childofpudding]

8 hours ago, Raves said:

Which is fine by me.  But most think it's ridiculous to even have Brees in the same conversation with Peyton/Brady/Rodgers and I think that's wrong.  Brees seems to have had the problem where every year he ends up just behind at #2 or #3 but was never able to have both a great season as well as the surrounding team around him for him to get the acknowledgement he deserves.  Like all the talking heads bring up every QB under the sun, Cam/Ryan/Wilson/Luck/Ben/Wentz/Rivers/etc,  but always seem to forget about Brees when discussing top QBs.

He's one of the more underrated QBs. Slightly behind Manning and Brady, but ahead of Rodgers imo.

[childofpudding]

On 4/11/2019 at 10:02 AM, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

would you want me to do it for other players outside of the modern era? 

This is what would be cool, if you could figure it out. Have one tab of a spreadsheet with two columns. First column is Year, second column is ANY/A and has the leaguewide ANY/A for all years. Then, on another tab, you have the career stats of every QB you want, along with their starting year in one column and their final year (or current year in the case of active QBs) in another. Then in a new cell in that QB's row, you use a formula or run a macro to calculate the average ANY/A differential over their career by referencing the other tab that has the leaguewide ANY/A figures and averaging all the leaguewide ANY/A from their starting year to their final year and subtracting that from their career ANY/A. Not sure if I'd made that clear, but would be pretty cool. Would require a relatively simple macro.

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

12 hours ago, Raves said:

So with all these stats being tossed out there, is it still taboo to say that Brees rightfully deserves to be in the conversation as the best QB along with Brady, Manning, and Rodgers?  Seems like every time I've made the argument that he deserves in the conversation, not even saying he's the best, I get blasted with people saying he doesn't belong in the conversation and it's not even close.

No, I don't think that he belongs in the conversation. For what it is worth, I wouldn't put Rodgers in that conversation either.  Don't get me wrong, I think he's a fantastic QB. I would rank him higher than Rodgers on an all-time list. But, I mean, he's simply not on the level of Peyton and Brady. Looking from a pure accolades point of view makes it obvious, but looking at the highest correlate stat and adjusting for era, the gap between Peyton and Brees is larger than the gap between Brees and Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. And that's while still including his final season where he played without a functional body and having a ~4 ANY/A. And well, Brady and Brees are significantly closer in the important areas, but Brees has a distinct lack of five rings and 3 MVPs. 

Here's how I would rank what I consider the best "modern" QBs:

Brady

Peyton

 

Brees

Rodgers

Favre

Warner

with there being a decent dropoff into the next tier. 

3 hours ago, childofpudding said:

This is what would be cool, if you could figure it out. Have one tab of a spreadsheet with two columns. First column is Year, second column is ANY/A and has the leaguewide ANY/A for all years. Then, on another tab, you have the career stats of every QB you want, along with their starting year in one column and their final year (or current year in the case of active QBs) in another. Then in a new cell in that QB's row, you use a formula or run a macro to calculate the average ANY/A differential over their career by referencing the other tab that has the leaguewide ANY/A figures and averaging all the leaguewide ANY/A from their starting year to their final year and subtracting that from their career ANY/A. Not sure if I'd made that clear, but would be pretty cool. Would require a relatively simple macro.

Interesting, I could probably try to make that happen. But my Excel knowledge is much weaker than I would like it to be. I was thinking I would put all of the average ANY/A in a list, and then index it according to the QBs career, and average those values and then just call the function I made that computes the ANY/A. 

[Raves]

8 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

No, I don't think that he belongs in the conversation. For what it is worth, I wouldn't put Rodgers in that conversation either.  Don't get me wrong, I think he's a fantastic QB. I would rank him higher than Rodgers on an all-time list. But, I mean, he's simply not on the level of Peyton and Brady. Looking from a pure accolades point of view makes it obvious, but looking at the highest correlate stat and adjusting for era, the gap between Peyton and Brees is larger than the gap between Brees and Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger. And that's while still including his final season where he played without a functional body and having a ~4 ANY/A. And well, Brady and Brees are significantly closer in the important areas, but Brees has a distinct lack of five rings and 3 MVPs. 

Here's how I would rank what I consider the best "modern" QBs:

Brady

Peyton

 

Brees

Rodgers

Favre

Warner

with there being a decent dropoff into the next tier. 

Interesting, I could probably try to make that happen. But my Excel knowledge is much weaker than I would like it to be. I was thinking I would put all of the average ANY/A in a list, and then index it according to the QBs career, and average those values and then just call the function I made that computes the ANY/A. 

The 5 rings and 3 MVPs are helped significantly by him being on much better teams for their time spans.  If you swapped Brees adn Brady I would expect their respective teams to have the exact same success that they did.  There were several seasons that Brees should've been MVP but due to a horrendous defense the Saints were 7-9 and there's no way they were going to give MVP to a player on a team with a losing record.

But if you don't have Rodgers in the conversation then I'm fine with Brees being left out.  My issue typically comes to when all 3 are talked about and Brees is sitting on the sidelines.

[Jlowe22]

It's 6 rings guys.

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

4 hours ago, Raves said:

The 5 rings and 3 MVPs are helped significantly by him being on much better teams for their time spans.

No, the MVPs were helped significantly by the fact that Brady earned them. He was the most valuable player in the league, and earned it. Sure, his team did really well that year, but that's in large part because of the enormous impact he had on the team, that is what value actually is. They don't' just hand out MVPs for being on a good team. 

4 hours ago, Raves said:

If you swapped Brees adn Brady I would expect their respective teams to have the exact same success that they did.

Well then you would be horribly mistaken. Brees has been roughly the same in most categories, if not worse, except like I showed earlier in the thread, that he is 34% more likely to throw an interception on any given play. That's a gigantic difference. He's significantly behind what in I have seen to be the highest correlate to winning. (Not dramatically behind, but it is a significant difference) The quarterback's job is to lead their offense to put up points. Brady lead by far the most efficient offense in NFL history. Brees cannot say the same.  Of the top ten highest scoring offenses of all time, two of them have been Brady-lead offenses. Brees cannot say the same. Brady has lead three offenses in the top 15 of all-time, Brees cannot say the same. Brady broke the Touchdown record, has two seasons over a ridiculous 8.8 ANY/A, Brees has none, his highest passer rating season is higher than Brees'. ALL of these things are completely irrespective of defense, so you can't just blame it on defense. All Brees has in his favor is huge volume yardage, which amounts to nothing considering it is the lowest correlate to winning in existence, and has had higher CMP% in his career.

There is nothing that suggests that Brees could pull off the same success given what he did in his career. 

4 hours ago, Raves said:

There were several seasons that Brees should've been MVP but due to a horrendous defense the Saints were 7-9 and there's no way they were going to give MVP to a player on a team with a losing record.

There are exactly zero seasons where he did anything even remotely close to deserving an MVP in which the Saints were 7-9. Hell, one of those seasons he lead the league in interceptions, and the other two he did nothing special except throw for a bunch of yards, which again, doesn't really equate that well to winning. To some extent it just means you threw the ball a lot.

4 hours ago, Raves said:

But if you don't have Rodgers in the conversation then I'm fine with Brees being left out.

Basically everything that I said that made Brees inferior to Brady, could also be said of Rodgers. I didn't even go into team success, which I think is incredibly overrated as a metric to rate QBs. 

4 hours ago, Raves said:

My issue typically comes to when all 3 are talked about and Brees is sitting on the sidelines.

I agree! That's insane! If Rodgers is in that conversation, then so should Brees! Brees is better anyway

Edited April 13, 2019 by C0LTSFAN4L1F3

[Raves]

1 hour ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

No, the MVPs were helped significantly by the fact that Brady earned them. He was the most valuable player in the league, and earned it. Sure, his team did really well that year, but that's in large part because of the enormous impact he had on the team, that is what value actually is. They don't' just hand out MVPs for being on a good team. 

Well then you would be horribly mistaken. Brees has been roughly the same in most categories, if not worse, except like I showed earlier in the thread, that he is 34% more likely to throw an interception on any given play. That's a gigantic difference. He's significantly behind what in I have seen to be the highest correlate to winning. (Not dramatically behind, but it is a significant difference) The quarterback's job is to lead their offense to put up points. Brady lead by far the most efficient offense in NFL history. Brees cannot say the same.  Of the top ten highest scoring offenses of all time, two of them have been Brady-lead offenses. Brees cannot say the same. Brady has lead three offenses in the top 15 of all-time, Brees cannot say the same. Brady broke the Touchdown record, has two seasons over a ridiculous 8.8 ANY/A, Brees has none, his highest passer rating season is higher than Brees'. ALL of these things are completely irrespective of defense, so you can't just blame it on defense. All Brees has in his favor is huge volume yardage, which amounts to nothing considering it is the lowest correlate to winning in existence, and has had higher CMP% in his career.

There is nothing that suggests that Brees could pull off the same success given what he did in his career. 

There are exactly zero seasons where he did anything even remotely close to deserving an MVP in which the Saints were 7-9. Hell, one of those seasons he lead the league in interceptions, and the other two he did nothing special except throw for a bunch of yards, which again, doesn't really equate that well to winning. To some extent it just means you threw the ball a lot.

Basically everything that I said that made Brees inferior to Brady, could also be said of Rodgers. I didn't even go into team success, which I think is incredibly overrated as a metric to rate QBs. 

I agree! That's insane! If Rodgers is in that conversation, then so should Brees! Brees is better anyway

Actually having a better defense so that you aren't required to take as many risks helps in not throwing as many picks.  Granted some QBs will throw picks regardless of how good of a defense they have and whether they need to take risks to stay in the games or not, but when your team is constantly giving up leads you are forced to go for riskier plays to make up for it.  With Brees being one of the most accurate and efficient QBs in the NFL ever, his numbers would look better if he wasn't required to take as many chances to keep leads.  For example if you looked at the past 2 years Brees has thrown the lowest number of interceptions in his career and that's in part due to his team having the #10 and #14 defenses in PPG and didn't require him to take as many risks as in years past.  If you compare that to Brady, I think he's only had a defense outside of the top 20 like 2 times in his career, where Brees has only had about 6 times they have been in the top 20, with the Saints that is.  If you don't think a QB being able to trust his defense to not give up leads so he didn't need to take as many chances to keep them in the game helps lower their interception totals, then I don't know what to tell you.

Also what about 2009, Peyton Manning won MVP when Brees was as good or better than Manning in nearly every category.

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

22 minutes ago, Raves said:

Actually having a better defense so that you aren't required to take as many risks helps in not throwing as many picks.  Granted some QBs will throw picks regardless of how good of a defense they have and whether they need to take risks to stay in the games or not, but when your team is constantly giving up leads you are forced to go for riskier plays to make up for it.  With Brees being one of the most accurate and efficient QBs in the NFL ever, his numbers would look better if he wasn't required to take as many chances to keep leads.

You're just making excuses. Unless you can prove a large correlation, then this is just conjecture. And Brees's career certainly doesn't support this crap. His full-season with the highest interception rate of his entire career came with a 7th ranked scoring defense. He had a worse defense in 2017, but he threw picks at more than twice the rate in 2010. His 3rd highest INT rate came in a year where they had a higher scoring defense than this year, yet this year he had the lowest INT rate of his entire career. 

The more rational explanation is that Brady simply threw less picks because he made better better decisions. 

23 minutes ago, Raves said:

For example if you looked at the past 2 years Brees has thrown the lowest number of interceptions in his career and that's in part due to his team having the #10 and #14 defenses in PPG and didn't require him to take as many risks as in years past. 

Actually I would attribute this year more so to him simply playing better and the league-wide spike in efficiency stats. 

28 minutes ago, Raves said:

Also what about 2009, Peyton Manning won MVP when Brees was as good or better than Manning in nearly every category

Did they go 7-9 in 2009? You claimed there were seasons where he desered the MVP but the Saints went 7-9 because of a bad defense so he didn't get the MVP. You're either moving the goalposts, or conceding that you were wrong. 

[C0LTSFAN4L1F3]

3 hours ago, Jlowe22 said:

It's 6 rings guys.

Does Brees have 0? 6-1=5. Therefore, Brees lacks five rings compared to Brady. 

Edited April 13, 2019 by C0LTSFAN4L1F3

[Jlowe22]

52 minutes ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

Does Brees have 0? 6-1=5. Therefore, Brees lacks five rings compared to Brady. 

Fair enough