soulman Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) What RBs in the Draft Fit the Physical Profile for Chicago’s Offense? Johnathan Wood | April 1st, 2019 With Jordan Howard officially no longer a Bear, it’s time to start looking to the draft to see who could be acquired as his replacement. Before the Combine, I looked at running backs who have been brought in for the Andy Reid offense in Kansas City (which the Bears are now running) to see if there were any physical patterns that could be found. To recap, I found five areas where backs consistently stood out from the average: Short: Reid RBs are routinely at or below league average of 5’10”. Well-Built: Reid RBs at or above league average 214 pounds. Good Acceleration: Reid RBs at or below average first 10 yards of the 40-yard dash of 1.59 seconds. Explosive: Reid RBs at or above average vertical jump of 35″ and average broad jump of 118″. Every RB Reid has brought to Kansas City hit at least four of these five thresholds. With that profile in mind, let’s look at the running backs in the 2019 draft and see who might fit the physical profile for this offense. Four Thresholds Hit No RBs hit all five thresholds at the Combine, but six players went 4-for-5. They are shown below, with the threshold they missed highlighted in red. A few thoughts: It’s really important to note that best physical fit does not mean best player. Think of it more as a chance to identify players who the Bears are likely interested in, and then do some film study of them. Most of these players fit the athletic testing requirements quite well but are simply very light. Since the Bears like to do so much inside zone, I’m not sure if a small back like Justice Hill or James Williams would be able to hold up very well. (Though it’s worth noting that Jamaal Charles weighed 200 pounds at the Combine and did just fine for 2 years as Reid’s lead back.) Alex Barnes is probably the best physical fit for this offense in the draft in that he’s just a little tall, but otherwise matches every single box in terms of bulk and athleticism. Three Thresholds Hit 11 RBs at the Combine went 3-for-5. They are shown below, with thresholds they missed highlighted in red. A few thoughts: Miles Sanders jumps out to me as a fit from this list. He was 1/8″ from being rounded down to 5’10”, and is only 3 pounds short of hitting that threshold. So physically, he’s not far off from the mark, and he checks all the athletic boxes. Again we see a number of guys who are light. I’m not sure how much weight (pun intended) to put into that metric, since the study didn’t include lighter backs like Charles and LeSean McCoy who excelled under Reid but were not brought in by him to KC, so didn’t apply to my study. If you exclude weight, many of the guys on here are excellent physical fits. One player from this group who has been particularly linked to the Bears is Trayveon Williams, who seems like a decent fit to me. He’s a little light, but otherwise fits the bill as a short and decently quick/explosive player. Two Thresholds Hit Six RBs at the Combine went 2-for-5. They are shown below, with thresholds they missed highlighted in red. A few thoughts: These players are probably not great physical fits for Chicago’s offense, though the Bears have been linked to Weber and Armstead out of this group. We see a few guys who had to skip drills (DNP = did not participate) crop up here. That could change their results once pro day numbers are out. One Threshold Hit Four RBs at the Combine went 1-for-5. They are shown below, with thresholds they missed highlighted in red. A few thoughts: This is mostly a list of players who did not work out at the Combine due to injury, so the thresholds don’t mean much here. Anderson in particular strikes me as somebody who could be interesting in Chicago’s offense, though his injury history is a concern. My Thoughts In addition to looking at physical thresholds, film study is really important to determine fit here. The Bears have a really good pass-catching running back in Tarik Cohen, and a solid run between the tackles and catch dumpoffs guy in Mike Davis. What they need is an all-around player who will be primarily tasked with doing 3 things that combine the best of Davis and Cohen: Run well between the tackles. Davis does, Cohen doesn’t. Be a weapon down the field in the passing game. Cohen is, Davis isn’t. Produce explosive plays. Cohen does, Davis doesn’t. These are traits that stats won’t really reveal (though college stats on explosive run % can help), so film study is definitely needed. Based on the physical profiles established here, guys I am most interested in studying include Miles Sanders, Travis Homer, Trayveon Williams, Karan Higdon, Darrell Henderson, Myles Gaskin, Alex Barnes, and Justice Hill. All of these players fit the physical profile of a lead RB for this offense, meaning it’s time to scout out how well their skill sets match what would be asked of them in Chicago. Edited April 1, 2019 by soulman 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) I posted an analysis of NFL FA backs who met this profile a few weeks ago and now it's time to look at which rookies fit best for Nagy's offense. Depending on what we're looking for these four stand out to me. Miles Sanders; Best Overall Damien Harris; Most like Mike Davis Darrell Henderson; Best Big Play Trayveon Williams; Most Versatile Edited April 1, 2019 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 I had a dream they drafted Jalin Moore if that means anything (it doesn't) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 Interesting read and a nice guide for what to expect. That said, There are several guys who are in a lower group but also VERY close to being much higher. Mike Weber for instance charts as hitting 2 thresholds, but he’s 3 lb from hitting 3, which is negligible, and possibly a pro day away from hitting all 5 (1.5” short on his combine vertical and was a combine DNP for his broad jump). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: Interesting read and a nice guide for what to expect. That said, There are several guys who are in a lower group but also VERY close to being much higher. Mike Weber for instance charts as hitting 2 thresholds, but he’s 3 lb from hitting 3, which is negligible, and possibly a pro day away from hitting all 5 (1.5” short on his combine vertical and was a combine DNP for his broad jump). They've met with him in person so there has to be some interest. Nagy has said that with some he needs to see the guy workout in person to judge him so since he is close maybe that's what a visit was about whereas with others they haven't visited with they feel they have enough info to decide where to rank them. Knowing how Pace has gone about his business in the past they'll have grades on these guys overall and by round. He'll have 2nd round guys on his board, 3rd rounders, 4th and 5th rounders, and 7ths and UDFAs but we won't know where all of them slot. Because Bruce Anderson (5'11"/210lbs) wasn't a Combine invitee all we have on him is his Pro Day numbers; 4.58/40 (no splits or shuttle times reported) 22/Bench 31"/Vertical 119"/Broad Jump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epyon Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 (edited) Seeing Henderson's 10 yard split time answers so many questions about how he makes so many break away runs while running a relatively disappointing 40 vs the expectation (it still wasn't slow just not elite speed as perhaps would have been expected given his tape)... Henderson is far and away my #1 for this draft, with Sanders as a far and away #2 vs the rest of the pack. Edited April 1, 2019 by Epyon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 I would trade up for Henderson, I think he has a play making ability that we need. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 If we're looking for a back whose a contrast to Davis then Henderson is at the top of my list for a number of reasons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 I ruled Harris out pretty quickly since I doubt he makes it to the 3rd but if we were to move up I could see him being the do it all back they could want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 3 hours ago, Madmike90 said: I ruled Harris out pretty quickly since I doubt he makes it to the 3rd but if we were to move up I could see him being the do it all back they could want. I like Harris, I think he has the thump that the Bears lost with Howard going. He also runs power and zone plays well. Nice burst on the power and decent patience and vision in the zone game. I went back and watched his combine and he looked pretty smooth catching the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Duke Johnson has requested to be traded...I think he could be an excellent pick up for a late round pick...Davis, Johnson, Cohen & Patterson mixed in is an extremely diverse group of runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 50 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Duke Johnson has requested to be traded...I think he could be an excellent pick up for a late round pick...Davis, Johnson, Cohen & Patterson mixed in is an extremely diverse group of runners. If we pay more than a sixth for Johnson, people are going to lose their minds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 42 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said: If we pay more than a sixth for Johnson, people are going to lose their minds I would think that would be enough to be honest...ideally you flip the pick you got for Howard...Johnson is worth less to Cleveland after week 8 than Howard was to us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 2, 2019 Author Share Posted April 2, 2019 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: I would think that would be enough to be honest...ideally you flip the pick you got for Howard...Johnson is worth less to Cleveland after week 8 than Howard was to us. If you're gonna get him that would be the way to go but you'd be picking up a $2.3 mil cap hit for 2019 that goes to $4.1 mil in 2020 and $5.1 mil in 2021 so do you want him in place of a rookie like Trayveon Williams who seems to be a similar back? Johnson has never been a prolific runner as a pro. Unless Pace and Nagy simply don't like what they see out of this class I'm leaning towards them taking the BPA RB whenever his draft position coincides with their board. It could be anywhere in the middle rounds. I suppose they could also bring in a vet FA after 5/7 but only at a minimal contract level. I never say never but I don't know why they'd trade a pick for Johnson whose primarily a receiving back when there are FAs still available and possibly cheaper or we can draft a rookie to fill that role. Cleveland still has a ton of cap space so they may just release him and eat a mil of dead cap. Edited April 2, 2019 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskieBear Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Madmike90 said: I would think that would be enough to be honest...ideally you flip the pick you got for Howard...Johnson is worth less to Cleveland after week 8 than Howard was to us. I think it would be hard to flip that pick, since it's conditional Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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