Draft Prospect RB's Who Fit Physical Profile For Bears Offense

[Epyon]

58 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Not saying you’re wrong at all but FWIW Pace being this open with interest in a guy who’s actually a top target of his would be highly uncharacteristic of him. It would seem to be more a Pace move to feign strong interest in a guy hoping someone jumps him to get that guy instead of a true target. His style has always been far more subterfuge than open book. 

This combined with absolutely no mention anywhere of any meetings or workouts or anything, has me believing Darrell Henderson is far and away the actual draft target... It just makes too much sense given his stats, explosiveness, elusiveness, receiving ability, and good relationship with A. Miller, that us NOT talking to him in any way shape or form stands out as VERY ODD.

I just don't know that it's possible without a trade up, and even if THAT where a possibility, there's always the chance he's out of the price range to be willing to make that jump.  I'm all in favor of shipping next year's Oakland pick, personally (trading a 2nd rounder for a mid-late 2nd rounder this year), but I'd be more than hesitant to spend anything more than a single pick making a move. We just don't have picks to spare.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

I'm not saying we're in any kind of advantageous position here, but all this talk of subterfuge makes me think that at least Pace and co should be better prepared for the mid rounds than many other teams...  I doubt any one else cares who the Bears have met with, so that means more of their scouting and analytical resources have been spent on the middle round guys.  Might increase our chances of finding a starter. 

[AZBearsFan]

43 minutes ago, Epyon said:

This combined with absolutely no mention anywhere of any meetings or workouts or anything, has me believing Darrell Henderson is far and away the actual draft target... It just makes too much sense given his stats, explosiveness, elusiveness, receiving ability, and good relationship with A. Miller, that us NOT talking to him in any way shape or form stands out as VERY ODD.

I just don't know that it's possible without a trade up, and even if THAT where a possibility, there's always the chance he's out of the price range to be willing to make that jump.  I'm all in favor of shipping next year's Oakland pick, personally (trading a 2nd rounder for a mid-late 2nd rounder this year), but I'd be more than hesitant to spend anything more than a single pick making a move. We just don't have picks to spare.

Henderson just got invited to attend the draft today which only makes it seem more likely that we won’t have a realistic shot st him even with a trade up. 

[Epyon]

7 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Henderson just got invited to attend the draft today which only makes it seem more likely that we won’t have a realistic shot st him even with a trade up. 

Whoa... I've said before that I think he's a first round talent (I'd personally take him over Jacobs, who I think is overrated) but I got the feeling from recent mocks and whatnot that his stock was actually sliding among the overall draft community into potentially being there in the third...

Either way, it seems like a weird choice for an invite... even if his stock was rising, I'd say the betting odds would overwhelmingly handicap him as round 2 or later guy.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

I'm not saying we're in any kind of advantageous position here, but all this talk of subterfuge makes me think that at least Pace and co should be better prepared for the mid rounds than many other teams...  I doubt any one else cares who the Bears have met with, so that means more of their scouting and analytical resources have been spent on the middle round guys.  Might increase our chances of finding a starter. 

Good catch!

Knowing Pace and his obsessions and intensity he's treating his first three picks as if they were coming in rounds 1-3.  He scores core players and All Pros in those rounds as often as he does in round one and two.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, Epyon said:

Whoa... I've said before that I think he's a first round talent (I'd personally take him over Jacobs, who I think is overrated) but I got the feeling from recent mocks and whatnot that his stock was actually sliding among the overall draft community into potentially being there in the third...

Either way, it seems like a weird choice for an invite... even if his stock was rising, I'd say the betting odds would overwhelmingly handicap him as round 2 or later guy.

I can't say that Henderson isn't a fit or that I wouldn't love to have him but is he the fit Nagy and Pace want.

Henderson and Harris where my first two choices until it became pretty clear neither was likely to drop all the way to #87 and I just don't see Pace giving up one of his 2020 2nds to move up for either.  Not when they seem to favor Davis like they do.

I think the cost in picks for other players would be more than Pace wants to spend for a RB.  Remember, he doesn't value them as highly as you do.

[Sugashane]

8 hours ago, Epyon said:

Apparently there are rumors that Bryce Love's knee failed (at least didn't look good in) medical re-checks.

 

That's interesting. Someone I'm friends with on Facebook posted a small video that showed him doing high knees and a few minor speed drills. Looked good but of course editing can help with that. 

 

Still, in a day 3 pick I'd be fine drafting him even if he was to be IR'ed his rookie year to heal and get back to form. Minor cost for his last 3 years of serious potential. If it comes up his knee is wrecked then you lost a day 3 pick, so minimal loss there IMO. 

[soulman]

4 hours ago, Sugashane said:

That's interesting. Someone I'm friends with on Facebook posted a small video that showed him doing high knees and a few minor speed drills. Looked good but of course editing can help with that. 

 

Still, in a day 3 pick I'd be fine drafting him even if he was to be IR'ed his rookie year to heal and get back to form. Minor cost for his last 3 years of serious potential. If it comes up his knee is wrecked then you lost a day 3 pick, so minimal loss there IMO. 

I've said I see no reason why we wouldn't bring in two rookie backs and if Love's knee issue causes him to fall into round seven I'd take him there and shelve him on a PUP or IR list for a year if needed.  Most backs come through knee surgery and return to form but as was the case with ARob even a WR it can take over a year to fully heal and to get your confidence back that you can trust the knee again.  A lot of it is psychological.

If he makes a full recovery we made a great move and if not we lost little.

I read an interesting article that took a different approach to rating backs by the strong points and weak points in their game and what I came away with is a confirmation that they all have blemishes of one kind or another, even the top ranked ones.  My conclusion is this draft really lacks any outstanding backs period.  None actually rate a higher pick than round two and if not many teams need a back all that badly there could be a logjam in rounds 3/4/5.

Interestingly enough of the two we've been talking a lot about Singletary scores highest in elusiveness and being toughest to bring down but very poorly in all metrics dealing with athleticism.  T Will scores much higher in athleticism but lacks in other ways making him somewhat of a poor man's Miles Sanders who ranks highest as a best all around back.  Henderson score high on burst and speed but low on power and elusiveness.  Some are questioned because of the competition they played against.

So no matter what road is traveled all evaluations are somewhat subjective and end up at much the same spot.  It all comes down to which "flavor" back best suits your needs.  A better runner, a better receiver, faster home run type, quick and elusive type, straight line speed and power, etc.  No one back has it all.  But maybe I'm a bit more convinced now that we don't absolutely need to prioritize a RB over a BPA at another spot.  We should have a crack at quite a few backs even in rounds four and five.

Edited April 20, 2019 by soulman

[dll2000]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

That's interesting. Someone I'm friends with on Facebook posted a small video that showed him doing high knees and a few minor speed drills. Looked good but of course editing can help with that. 

 

Still, in a day 3 pick I'd be fine drafting him even if he was to be IR'ed his rookie year to heal and get back to form. Minor cost for his last 3 years of serious potential. If it comes up his knee is wrecked then you lost a day 3 pick, so minimal loss there IMO. 

Nagy likes to take small school and talented injured players later in draft for value or upside.  Depends on how far he falls. 

[HuskieBear]

16 hours ago, Sugashane said:

That's interesting. Someone I'm friends with on Facebook posted a small video that showed him doing high knees and a few minor speed drills. Looked good but of course editing can help with that. 

or you watching a video on facebook isn't the same as teams and their doctors examining the knee in person

[Epyon]

Henderson retweeting/replying @ a Twitter thread/article about how we should draft him.

Said thread is also worth checking out for a good Henderson sales pitch.

Edited April 20, 2019 by Epyon

[WindyCity]

You don’t need to sell me on Henderson.

We just need him to get a non serious arrest on Friday AM of the draft

[Epyon]

Or one of his parents to post a video of him smoking pot out of a gas mask. That seemed to do the trick for that offensive lineman a few years back

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

or you watching a video on facebook isn't the same as teams and their doctors examining the knee in person

Good call, because I never said nor did I imply that it was. In fact my last sentence clearly pointed out editing could have made it seem better than it really was.

 

 

 

 

 

[soulman]

6 hours ago, Epyon said:

Henderson retweeting/replying @ a Twitter thread/article about how we should draft him.

Said thread is also worth checking out for a good Henderson sales pitch.

If he's anything like Miller ya' gotta love the chip on the shoulder and will to succeed attitude those Memphis kids acquire and I'm sure he's love to join Miller in Chicago having a former teammate to help with his rookie transition.

His explosiveness and big play ability are undeniable but he's not all that elusive or nifty and IMHO he's not gonna handle the job as an every down back if Davis was lost to an injury so we'd need a fourth back more like Davis to fill that role. 

The other obvious question are is he what Nagy and Pace are looking for and where's he most likely to go in the draft?  He's not a perfect all around back so would it be worth it to spend picks to trade up for him if necessary?

Those are questions only Pace and Nagy can answer.