soulman Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 50 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: At just 25 years old if you offer me him for a 6th or a unproven RB in the 3rd I think I would take the knock off Cohen...RB is a position they clearly don't massively value and are looking for a skill set rather than an elite runner. But aside from whatever the cost would be as far as draft pick goes Johnson comes with a $2.3 mil cap hit that escalates to $4.1 mil in 2020 and $5.1 mil in 2021 and we're not gonna pay him more than we're paying Davis. So we'd spend a 2020 6th on a one year rental we'd release after 2019 unless he agreed to a significantly reduced deal. I just don't see Pace doing that vs a rookie he can draft he can control for 3-4 years who'd have a 2019 cap hit of about $550k-$700k and lower ongoing costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 32 minutes ago, soulman said: But aside from whatever the cost would be as far as draft pick goes Johnson comes with a $2.3 mil cap hit that escalates to $4.1 mil in 2020 and $5.1 mil in 2021 and we're not gonna pay him more than we're paying Davis. So we'd spend a 2020 6th on a one year rental we'd release after 2019 unless he agreed to a significantly reduced deal. I just don't see Pace doing that vs a rookie he can draft he can control for 3-4 years who'd have a 2019 cap hit of about $550k-$700k and lower ongoing costs. I understand the cap hit but I also understand that is workable...look at the Cowboys with Robert Quinn...sometimes guys will take pay cuts to put themselves into better situations... As I said I am not against taking a RB in the 3rd at all...far from it if the right guy is there I am all for it...my concern is just reaching on a guy at a position we clearly don't value that highly in terms of individual talent and want to me more versatile than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Madmike90 said: I understand the cap hit but I also understand that is workable...look at the Cowboys with Robert Quinn...sometimes guys will take pay cuts to put themselves into better situations... As I said I am not against taking a RB in the 3rd at all...far from it if the right guy is there I am all for it...my concern is just reaching on a guy at a position we clearly don't value that highly in terms of individual talent and want to me more versatile than anything else. I'll respond to both separately. 1) Even if Johnson is willing to restructure his deal is that likely to impact his 2019 cost? And if so how much? His extension was a 3yr/$15 mil + deal with an AAV of $5.2 mil. If we cut that in half for 2 yrs he's still getting more than Davis and about 4x more than a rookie 3rd round pick for a back whose never rushed like he did in college. He's averaged a little over 300 yards per season. Yes, he's a good receiving back but we have that in Cohen whose also a better RB. IMHO we need a true RB with receiving skills to pair with Davis and Johnson is not really that guy or at least not for the kind of money he's getting. 2) I don't see Pace reaching for a RB or any other position either. He doesn't need to do that. Knowing him he has his RB picks ranked by round and he'll either trade up a bit for his guy or wait 'til one falls to him. If we go back to Woods profile there are probably at least 3-4 backs in that second tier cluster who fit. He's not drafting a bell cow RB or even a #1 guy for Nagy's RBBC, he's drafting to upgrade Mizzell. That shouldn't be very difficult to do anywhere in rounds 3-5 so I don't necessarily see him even taking a RB first. If there's guy at another position he wants to fill whose ranked higher I believe that's who he'll take. If he really values Johnson that highly I'd just wait to see if Cleveland bites the bullet and releases him. Then Pace can negotiate with him as FA and we aren't stuck with his contract or having to give up a pick we may be able to use as barter for a better pick this year or next. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, soulman said: I'll respond to both separately. 1) Even if Johnson is willing to restructure his deal is that likely to impact his 2019 cost? And if so how much? His extension was a 3yr/$15 mil + deal with an AAV of $5.2 mil. If we cut that in half for 2 yrs he's still getting more than Davis and about 4x more than a rookie 3rd round pick for a back whose never rushed like he did in college. He's averaged a little over 300 yards per season. Yes, he's a good receiving back but we have that in Cohen whose also a better RB. IMHO we need a true RB with receiving skills to pair with Davis and Johnson is not really that guy or at least not for the kind of money he's getting. 2) I don't see Pace reaching for a RB or any other position either. He doesn't need to do that. Knowing him he has his RB picks ranked by round and he'll either trade up a bit for his guy or wait 'til one falls to him. If we go back to Woods profile there are probably at least 3-4 backs in that second tier cluster who fit. He's not drafting a bell cow RB or even a #1 guy for Nagy's RBBC, he's drafting to upgrade Mizzell. That shouldn't be very difficult to do anywhere in rounds 3-5 so I don't necessarily see him even taking a RB first. If there's guy at another position he wants to fill whose ranked higher I believe that's who he'll take. If he really values Johnson that highly I'd just wait to see if Cleveland bites the bullet and releases him. Then Pace can negotiate with him as FA and we aren't stuck with his contract or having to give up a pick we may be able to use as barter for a better pick this year or next. JMHO The question regarding what we could do with his contract is impossible to answer because we don't know the ins and outs of any potential deals... I think it is easy to list guys from round to round...issue with this is if the guys are off the board in that round then the deeper the get the less guys you have who you can consider all round backs...so for example say Pace's board looks like... Round 3...Montgomery, Henderson, Harris, Sanders. Round 4...Hill, Williams, Singletary Round 5...Love, Weber, Thompson If you don't get one of those 3rd round guys all of a sudden your looking at round 4 guys who "might" be able to be early down guys...round 5 you are looking at out and out complementary backs...that's why I see the two bold statements as a contradiction...can we say that Johnson wouldn't be an upgrade on Mizzell and if we can get him at a really cheap cost then why not?... On a side note if we wanted to upgrade Mizzell then go get Ware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 36 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: The question regarding what we could do with his contract is impossible to answer because we don't know the ins and outs of any potential deals... I think it is easy to list guys from round to round...issue with this is if the guys are off the board in that round then the deeper the get the less guys you have who you can consider all round backs...so for example say Pace's board looks like... Round 3...Montgomery, Henderson, Harris, Sanders. Round 4...Hill, Williams, Singletary Round 5...Love, Weber, Thompson If you don't get one of those 3rd round guys all of a sudden your looking at round 4 guys who "might" be able to be early down guys...round 5 you are looking at out and out complementary backs...that's why I see the two bold statements as a contradiction...can we say that Johnson wouldn't be an upgrade on Mizzell and if we can get him at a really cheap cost then why not?... On a side note if we wanted to upgrade Mizzell then go get Ware. I've actually favored pursuing Ware because he is a FA so any deal with him begins from scratch. And depending on how the draft goes it's possible Pace may do that once that May 7th cut off for FA signings impacting compensatory picks has passed. Johnson is not a FA so any deal for him would typically require a willingness on his part to completely re-do his deal in order to accomplish it. He may or may not be willing to do that now plus it adds another layer of complexity to the deal in addition to negotiating compensation with Cleveland. I just don't believe Pace would jump through those hoops for Johnson when he can draft a similar back in a few weeks. If Cleveland releases Johnson then it's a whole different scenario both now and after the draft and Pace may look at it differently. I'm sure he's keeping an eye on it. I think your rankings are pretty damn accurate. Where Jacobs goes and who goes after him will tell us a lot and also will there be a run on RBs and if so when or will a few fall in each round without any flurry of RB picks in close order? Based on what Nagy is looking for and may be willing to accept any one of those 4th round packs is a fit and there may be one or two more who'll also fall in rounds four or five. I see a lot of mid tier quantity and less top tier quality. I don't know that Sanders will fall very far out of round two either. IMHO he or Montgomery could be the second back taken but Harris and Henderson could fall to us or be close enough to trade up for. I like Harris, Henderson, and T. Williams in the late 3rd and Hill and Singletary less along with some others more as guy we just let fall to us. In truth I really don't know when Pace will strike on a RB. It could be anywhere in those rounds. For me it's simple. I trust Nagy to know what he wants and Pace to get it for him. Where is academic to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 If there is not a guy in the 3rd the take one in the 4th. We really can't go into the season with Davis being the only guy on the team we are comfortable running through the tackles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 1 hour ago, WindyCity said: If there is not a guy in the 3rd the take one in the 4th. We really can't go into the season with Davis being the only guy on the team we are comfortable running through the tackles. That is the exact mindset that concerns me...no one wants to go in with just Davis as our "between the tackles RB" but I would rather come out the draft with talent rather than just having to take a guy...a lot of vet guys get cut...RB is a position more so than any where guys can go from UDFA to star...I just don't want to force it if it's not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: That is the exact mindset that concerns me...no one wants to go in with just Davis as our "between the tackles RB" but I would rather come out the draft with talent rather than just having to take a guy...a lot of vet guys get cut...RB is a position more so than any where guys can go from UDFA to star...I just don't want to force it if it's not there. It is a deep draft at RB, you are more likely to be forcing it at another position. Not forcing it in the draft is not mutually exclusive with getting Duke, there are 15 RBs in the draft I would feel more comfortable with running between the tackles than Duke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 1 hour ago, WindyCity said: It is a deep draft at RB, you are more likely to be forcing it at another position. Not forcing it in the draft is not mutually exclusive with getting Duke, there are 15 RBs in the draft I would feel more comfortable with running between the tackles than Duke. No one said it was... But also no one can say what is going to happen with that draft board and in the position we are in we have to value talent about all else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 4 hours ago, WindyCity said: It is a deep draft at RB, you are more likely to be forcing it at another position. Not forcing it in the draft is not mutually exclusive with getting Duke, there are 15 RBs in the draft I would feel more comfortable with running between the tackles than Duke. This is more the way I see it. If the only choices were the top 3 or 4 backs and a huge drop off in talent after that then if you absolutely needed a back you're forced to either trade up or potentially reach for a back a round or two higher than he's ranked. I don't see that being the case in this draft at all. You've got at least a dozen backs laced throughout the middle rounds and even Nagy has indicated some are fits for him just not which ones. That's why I've posted the header to this thread so we might be able to narrow 12-15 down to 3 or 4 likely to be available in round 3 or round 4. You can get good RBs in the middle rounds but you'll seldom find a Pass Rusher, CB, OT, or a WR with talent who falls that far. It seems to me the middle rounds are where you find RBs, Safeties, TEs and OGs and damned if we can't use one of each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 I don't view this as a deep RB class. More like a poor RB class with very few guys who stand out. The idea that we absolutely can't pass on a RB in the 3rd or 4th seems crazy. It's a crapshoot that any pick will pan out. Counting on a 3rd or 4th rounder to be a major contributor on a playoff team is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: I don't view this as a deep RB class. More like a poor RB class with very few guys who stand out. The idea that we absolutely can't pass on a RB in the 3rd or 4th seems crazy. It's a crapshoot that any pick will pan out. Counting on a 3rd or 4th rounder to be a major contributor on a playoff team is foolish. Yep, this RB class is trash. The standouts aren't even special, they are just decent prospects that stand out due to the limited talent. I see a lot of guys that can fill roles, if you need a short yard power back there are several, there are some guys who can be returners and there are some gadget layers that can be dangerous in space. But they are almost all severely limited in one way or another. To me there is one guy worthy of a very late 1st, then about 3 fringe 2nd/3rd rounders that likely get bumped up to go well beyond our pick. And no one here is worth trading up for unless it is our 3rd and maybe a 2020 5th. Just an underwhelming group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 1 hour ago, abstract_thought said: I don't view this as a deep RB class. More like a poor RB class with very few guys who stand out. The idea that we absolutely can't pass on a RB in the 3rd or 4th seems crazy. It's a crapshoot that any pick will pan out. Counting on a 3rd or 4th rounder to be a major contributor on a playoff team is foolish. We'll cross our fingers and hope you're wrong, as Pace clearly disagrees with you, and is absolutely locked in on snatching a RB in the draft, most likely with their first pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 2 hours ago, Heinz D. said: We'll cross our fingers and hope you're wrong, as Pace clearly disagrees with you, and is absolutely locked in on snatching a RB in the draft, most likely with their first pick. He is wrong. There is a ton of mid round talent at the position. There is not Barkley, but 8-10 legit NFL starting backs in this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 1 hour ago, WindyCity said: He is wrong. There is a ton of mid round talent at the position. There is not Barkley, but 8-10 legit NFL starting backs in this draft. I think there are 10 RB in this draft capable of filling a role as a guy getting 100-150+ carries over the course of the 2019 season with a reasonable expectation of at least some success and maybe a lot of it. Some won’t pan out and some won’t get that opportunity because of who drafts them, but I think the ability is there. There are few if any elite RB prospects this year but a bunch of good ones IMO. What we need is to be able to adequately fill the 270 carries that left with Howard, Cunningham and Mizzell. Davis had 112 last year and was really effective and should be expected to see at least some uptick in usage here. Patterson will likely get a few dozen carries too and Cohen is probably capable of a modest rushing load increase if need be so realistically whatever rookie we add doesn’t have to come in and be even a primary guy in 2019. We’ve already insulated ourselves pretty well against needing that IMO. The rookie just needs to be someone who can contribute something in 2019, unless Davis blows away even the highest expectations. At minimum we already have two guys we know can excel in complementary roles in Davis and Cohen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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