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Draft Prospect RB's Who Fit Physical Profile For Bears Offense


soulman

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45 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

You raise an important point here (indirectly) - we don’t know what Pace and Nagy think we already have. We know Cohen is a complementary piece, but we have only assumptions as to what their plans or expectations are for Davis. If they think his 2018 Seattle workload is all they can expect from him then we probably need a back in the draft capable of a bigger load right away, and if they think he can be a 200-carry guy or maybe even more then their draft targets may be more Cohen-ish in terms of expected carries or longer term projections, with the difference being RB being arguably our top need or being maybe not even a top 3 need in their eyes (especially since viable backup players like Ware, Yeldon, Grant, Ajayi, etc. remain available in FA). We’ve looked at basically every draftable RB in some fashion, but what if that is to ID the best 5th-7th round RB, or a super long misdirection play away from our primary objectives elsewhere? After the long con with Mitch 2 years ago and then having Miller delete his Insta lists last year I don’t put aaaaaaaaanything past Pace which, by the way, is awesome. 

I do think Nagy has given indications that he has a vision and maybe I'd even go so far as to say expectations that Davis will fill Howard's role but somewhat better as far as his versatility goes.

But what's unknown is whether or not he can fill Howard's scoring production.  How good is he inside the 5 yard line.  If you're skeptical then a back like Singletary whose been referred to as a "touchdown monster" keeps him higher on your board than others may have him ranked since you have a very specific way you plan to use him at least initially. 

Goal line and short yardage plays aren't all that tricky for a RB.  Find a crease and score.  Or find a crease and pick up the first down and Singletary does have a unique talent for that.  Whatever else you get in from him terms of rushing, receiving and pass blocking is a bonus so long as he meets his obligations as your scorer and/or drive extender.

Conversely maybe you think that Davis has the talent to be that scorer and drive extender so now you're looking for a back with more speed and home run ability and great receiving skills.  ST ability may also come into play.  I think initially whoever the guy is will fill a specific role in Nagy's scheme he feels he short on now.  That's my take on it.

Is it a misdirection?

I don't feel there's a whole lot of trickery goin' on by the time you hit pick #87.  A long con to get your franchise QB is different than a late 3rd round pick where you're hoping to draft a BPA at a spot you need to fill who can at least contribute year one.  I think the only deception may be based on whether we go RB or TE by plan or momentarily discard the plan if an Edge guy or a SS/CB we have ranked much higher is all of a sudden there for the taking.

We're locked in all across the OL and DL for now so we aren't gonna fool anyone who needs a lineman that we might jump them.  The same is true at WR, FS, and probably at ILB as well.  If we all know RB, TE, SS, and maybe CB are on our wish list my guess is 31 other GMs know it too.  We're also drafting so late in each round that unless we move up only a handful of teams picking in front of us or right behind us are gonna be concerned.  JMHO

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6 minutes ago, soulman said:

But what's unknown is whether or not he can fill Howard's scoring production.  How good is he inside the 5 yard line.

Not a lot of evidence from last year with just 2 carries inside the 5 and 8 inside inside the 10. The 3.0 ypc inside the 10 is really good compared to the higher volume players, albeit 8 carries is a small sample size. 

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4 hours ago, Epyon said:

It's not just his 40 time, his 10 yard split on that 40 was absolutely atrocious (1.69sec)

I'd add, that's also a major reason I don't like Singletary (1.64sec)

The article this post links out to in the first post has all the data, and imo the data isn't at all good for a number of these guys...  I can live with height differentials, and I can live with less jumping explosion, but acceleration is just too critical, imo.

The only big data point that was missing was imo fumble rates..... but just filtering for acceleration and crosses a number of those guys off my list..

Same with Singletary... I see a good vision, lateral agility and burst when I watch him run.

Plus, this juke is freaking sick:

 

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2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Not a lot of evidence from last year with just 2 carries inside the 5 and 8 inside inside the 10. The 3.0 ypc inside the 10 is really good compared to the higher volume players, albeit 8 carries is a small sample size. 

That would answer the question of why Singletary or someone like him who shares similar traits might be higher on their list.

Once again I'm not stumping for the guy only relating what I see watching some video and a lot of it tells me why his metrics from the combine don't mean as much as some may put on them.  That also tells me skills Pace and Nagy see that interest them.

He's almost strictly a between the tackles runner and far more North/South than East/West and he runs with some lean and some compact power.  Based on Jonathan Woods summary his 10 yard split may be just below the ideal base but he also has very quick feet and a sense for finding even a small crease in the line.  When he does he doesn't waste any time getting to it and through it.

If you give him even a little bit of daylight ahead he'll take it immediately and break through it quickly.  He's still explosive in the first 5 yards or so and he's so compact it's almost impossible to arm tackle him.  If you can get him into the second level a LB or Safety better be ready to take him low or he'll carry them for more yardage. 

He's very nifty in a phone booth and he has some explosion and power so I see a guy whose not gonna have many runs for negative yardage and who can get a tough 2-3 yards on smarts and determination alone.  And as advertised he's a very good goaline back for all of those same reasons.  The kid loves to run right up the gut and with his feet and quickness he's good at it.

So in some ways I can see the fit.

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4 minutes ago, G08 said:

Plus, this juke is freaking sick:

I actually watched that video earlier today, and had the same reaction to that juke... damn amazing move, honestly... My ankles started hurting just watching it.

Part of the fun with the draft process is trying to nail down who these guys are and aren't with measurables and tape.... Many, or even most of the RBs in this class have a significant flaw you can point to (or multiple of them)....

For my money, I'm putting my chips more on acceleration, and it's a large part of the reason I'm significantly higher on Henderson than the general draft community. I think he's actually a first round talent, and after pick 48, or halfway through the second, I think the value is good enough to at least make attempts to go up and get him. Then again I also quite admittedly likely put a hell of a lot more value on RBs than most in general, out of personal bias.

For backs that we wouldn't have to trade up to get (Sanders is my #2).... I'm much less confident in any of them outright but it's mostly between T Williams, Love, Montgomery, or Weber.... and I'm not sure that any of them are worth the third rounder and I actually have trouble picking which I'd most like to have overall. A big issue is that I'm not sure any of them are better than Davis, which is imo kind of the whole point in going out and getting one to begin with, because I don't trust Davis being "the guy" for a significant chunk when Cohen's not in.

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7 minutes ago, Epyon said:

A big issue is that I'm not sure any of them are better than Davis, which is imo kind of the whole point in going out and getting one to begin with, because I don't trust Davis being "the guy" for a significant chunk when Cohen's not in.

You don’t trust Davis because he’s an unknown, or because you don’t think he’s any good? 

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36 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

You don’t trust Davis because he’s an unknown, or because you don’t think he’s any good? 

I don't think he's more than just a guy, honestly.....

Weber and him are pretty similar in my eyes (which is the thing that holds me back from liking Weber too much), though Weber at least could theoretically still develop into something. I think the ink is dry on the story for what Davis is going to be.  He's what Mizzell was to us this year, imo.

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16 hours ago, Epyon said:

 

I don't think he's more than just a guy, honestly.....

Weber and him are pretty similar in my eyes (which is the thing that holds me back from liking Weber too much), though Weber at least could theoretically still develop into something. I think the ink is dry on the story for what Davis is going to be.  He's what Mizzell was to us this year, imo.

The difference is 4 years experience and Davis has proven himself against NFL competition whereas Weber has not.

I don't get how you can equate Davis with Mizzell though.  Mizzell is like a taller lighter version of Tarik Cohen with 1/10 the talent.  He's had all of 9 rushing attempts and 8 pass receptions in his entire career one of which was a play Nagy designed just for him that went for a TD.

Davis was signed to be a front line RB not an undersized after thought.  If Pace and Nagy were unsure he could handle a starting role they would have either signed someone else who has started or kept Howard.  Good or bad as it stands Davis is planned as the #1 RB in 2019.

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4 hours ago, soulman said:

The difference is 4 years experience and Davis has proven himself against NFL competition whereas Weber has not.

I don't get how you can equate Davis with Mizzell though.  Mizzell is like a taller lighter version of Tarik Cohen with 1/10 the talent.  He's had all of 9 rushing attempts and 8 pass receptions in his entire career one of which was a play Nagy designed just for him that went for a TD.

Davis was signed to be a front line RB not an undersized after thought.  If Pace and Nagy were unsure he could handle a starting role they would have either signed someone else who has started or kept Howard.  Good or bad as it stands Davis is planned as the #1 RB in 2019.

You mean 4 years of proving that at best, he's "just a guy".... Weber's ceiling isn't yet known.

As far as equating him to Mizzell, that's because I don't think Davis was brought in to be the guy in any respect.... imo he was brought in to take Mizzell's snaps as a 3rd down back/ RB3. I'm very skeptical the offense can take significant enough steps forward to give us a real shot at contention, if he's the best back we've got. The window ain't gonna be open that long, if it's even still open with Fangio gone.

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13 minutes ago, Epyon said:

You mean 4 years of proving that at best, he's "just a guy".... Weber's ceiling isn't yet known.

As far as equating him to Mizzell, that's because I don't think Davis was brought in to be the guy in any respect.... imo he was brought in to take Mizzell's snaps as a 3rd down back/ RB3. I'm very skeptical the offense can take significant enough steps forward to give us a real shot at contention, if he's the best back we've got. The window ain't gonna be open that long, if it's even still open with Fangio gone.

Let’s play this out a bit - the Bears chose Davis and made him a day 1 FA signing over pursuing either Mark Ingram or Tevin Coleman, both of whom are established guys capable of handling 200 carries. THEN they traded away their incumbent starter for a pick in next year’s draft, so basically a dump job, leaving them with just Davis and Cohen, who is fully expected NOT capable of handling 200 carries due to his diminutive size. Effectively in doing these things they replaced Howard’s salary with that of Davis +$500k on top of what Howard was set to make. 

What makes more sense - that they did all of these things with the belief that Davis was capable of handling starter level carries in 2019 at a better rate of efficiency than Howard would have, or that they did so expecting to rely principally on a mid-to-late round rookie target they identify in the draft who may or may not make it to 87 while paying Davis more than Howard for spot duty? Remember that the success rate for mid round picks in general are pretty low but especially for RBs (addressed here among other places). Whether Pace and Nagy made the right choice is very much TBD, but the choice they made seems pretty obvious to me, at least as far as 2019 goes.

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The reason we didn't go for Coleman or Ingram is because we didn't want to pay serious money to a running back, while being relatively cash strapped this offseason (also in Coleman's case he shares an agent with Howard and leveon bell.... Negotiating for him would have been significantly more difficult) 

More over, dumping Howard is irrelevant. He was going to be gone regardless via not fitting the scheme and getting SOME value back for it. 

I think the fact that we've interviewed /worked out something like 16 running backs (and those are just the ones we know about) tells me the real story behind how much confidence they have in davis (that is to say, none). We aren't acting like a team who found their guy, we're acting like a team who plugged a hole in the dam and are now desperately hoping some one else can come in and actually fix it. He's a stop gap at best, and way more ideally suited to being the depth chart guy and limited art best, role player unless the RB 1 (whoever that ends up being) gets hurt.... And I'm extremely skeptical of our playoff chances if Davis had to be the main guy, unless they're going to try and significantly increase Cohen's workload and /or also give Patterson significant carries as well. 

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2 hours ago, Epyon said:

You mean 4 years of proving that at best, he's "just a guy".... Weber's ceiling isn't yet known.

As far as equating him to Mizzell, that's because I don't think Davis was brought in to be the guy in any respect.... imo he was brought in to take Mizzell's snaps as a 3rd down back/ RB3. I'm very skeptical the offense can take significant enough steps forward to give us a real shot at contention, if he's the best back we've got. The window ain't gonna be open that long, if it's even still open with Fangio gone.

Of course you're entitled to your own opinion but on this point the Bears HC would disagree with you and has basically said so.

If he's RB #3 whose RB #1?  It's not Cohen and it's not Patterson and we passed on a vet who has a years experience as a starter in KC with Nagy to sign Davis.  That would be a pretty good indication of where Davis stands in Nagy's mind so far.  He's a versatile low mileage back whose game is on an upswing and hell yeah 4 years experience showing improvement each year means something vs a rookie whose shown zip so far as an NFL RB.

And how do you come to the conclusion Mike Weber may have some incredible upside when he's the 25th ranked RB in this draft?  Here's the synopsis on him from his NFL scouting report in which he's also ranked as a 5th-6th round pick which means it's possible he could slip out of the draft altogether.  If you're gonna consign Davis to a RB #3 role you're gonna need someone much better than Weber to take over as RB #1.

Overview

Adequately skilled runner with decent size who can get what is blocked but is unlikely to find his own yards often enough at the NFL level. Weber does a nice job of spying second-level linebackers and making lane choices relative to where the defensive flow is headed. However, even when he sees it, he struggles to access enough acceleration to rip past the first two levels of tacklers. He can make the initial tackler miss but doesn't string moves together effectively. He could have a career cap as a RB3.

I'll be honest with you.  Between Davis and Weber if either of them turns out to be "just a guy" it's probably gonna be Weber.  If we draft a RB at #87 I'll betcha' a buck it won't be Mike Weber but we may take him in round 7 or sign him as an UDFA if he slip out of the draft entirely.

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48 minutes ago, Epyon said:

The reason we didn't go for Coleman or Ingram is because we didn't want to pay serious money to a running back, while being relatively cash strapped this offseason (also in Coleman's case he shares an agent with Howard and leveon bell.... Negotiating for him would have been significantly more difficult) 

More over, dumping Howard is irrelevant. He was going to be gone regardless via not fitting the scheme and getting SOME value back for it. 

I think the fact that we've interviewed /worked out something like 16 running backs (and those are just the ones we know about) tells me the real story behind how much confidence they have in davis (that is to say, none). We aren't acting like a team who found their guy, we're acting like a team who plugged a hole in the dam and are now desperately hoping some one else can come in and actually fix it. He's a stop gap at best, and way more ideally suited to being the depth chart guy and limited art best, role player unless the RB 1 (whoever that ends up being) gets hurt.... And I'm extremely skeptical of our playoff chances if Davis had to be the main guy, unless they're going to try and significantly increase Cohen's workload and /or also give Patterson significant carries as well. 

We're in the market for a RB because Nagy wants to use a RBBC scheme.  Our days of having a single bell cow back who handles the majority of the carries is over for now.  In this scheme ideally Nagy will have two 3 down backs sharing carries with Cohen and Patterson also contributing but more as gadget backs than between the tackles ball control type backs.  Pass blocking is also a factor and neither Cohen or Patterson will handle that duty.

Sure Davis has his limitation just as Howard has and just as most backs do but he wasn't signed to be the sole principal ball carrier.  I see 4 RBs with slightly different skills sets not including Patterson.  So Davis will have a partner sharing carries with him and while I expect he'll average more carries per game than he did last year he's still not gonna get 20-25 carries a game.  No single back will in this offense.  They'll be split between them.

IMHO we signed Davis over backs like Ingram and Coleman because we weren't looking for a back to handle 250 carries or more per season and because for our needs he was a younger and a better bargain than Ingram who still only got $6.5 mil gtd and Coleman who got $4.25 mil gtd.  If Davis fails to improve or flops completely (which I doubt) we're out $3 mil and we take a better back in 2020 when we have two 2nd round picks.

Drafting at the end of round three we aren't gonna have our choice of the higher ranked RBs this year so we draft a back who compliments what Davis and Cohen do and 350 or so carries will be divvied up between them in some ratio for each.  Davis is likely to get a greater number than Cohen and whichever rookie we draft but there's no desperation.  We're just kicking tires of even backs we'll have no shot at at all picking at #87.

And finally the days of riding a strong running game into the playoffs and a championship are gone.  It's a passing league and our offense is now being built around that.  We aren't looking for a Saquon Barkley or a Todd Gurley or Zeke Elliot this year.  We're looking for the best contributor in our scheme we can find in rounds 3-5.  Whether or not you agree with this approach is moot.  It's the way Nagy wants to run his ship.

EDIT:  We're also not cash or cap strapped.  We still have nearly $16 mil in cap and could easily have afforded Ingram or Coleman if that's who Nagy felt he had to have.  And your thinking about Howard sharing an agent with Coleman and that impacting negotiations is off base.  It doesn't work that way plus Howard was told he would be traded long before it happened.

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