Hunter2_1 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Nozizaki said: Yeah, but the Rams also outperformed their pythagorean wins expectation by 1.8, meaning they're due a for a decent regression to the mean. OK. Still, well coached, good players, tough to beat - still think they take the division, with Seattle in WC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riftty Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Packers. I see them winning the division and making a deep playoff run. I still think Rodgers is the best QB on the league. His heart just wasn't into it last season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwibrown Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 16 hours ago, tom cody said: The Ravens. I think they win the AFC North. Not a abd bet, they have the best coach in the AFC north by a long shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 16 hours ago, Nozizaki said: Yeah, but the Rams also outperformed their pythagorean wins expectation by 1.8, meaning they're due a for a decent regression to the mean. That's flawed when it comes to the Rams last year. The defense showed in the playoffs that it was one of the better units in the NFL - obviously coming up short of the Super Bowl is going to be what people remember, but the combination of: shutting down the NFL's top running game, holding Drew Brees and Sean Payton to under 300 yards in the Superdome and holding Tom Brady to 13 points is a nearly historic feat (although those are obviously randomly specific, my point is the defense played at a nearly elite level in the playoffs). We also had/have the best kicker/punter combo in the NFL, and our coverage units are at least average. But Zuerlein was hurt early on, as was our original KR/PR. Overall, the defense and special teams actually played well below what they should have done in the regular season - and the offense performed better than it should have, given that Goff isn't a top QB and Kupp was injured. A great example of this are our two games against Seattle - we won by 2 and by 5 points. But if you compare the rosters, it's not close. Those two games epitomize the Rams frustrating knack to play down to our competition last year prior to the playoffs beginning. I expect the defense to be better, despite losing some guys, the special teams to be more consistent and the offense to be better, barring injuries to key players of course. 13 wins would be hard to repeat, and I'm a big believer in the Super Bowl loser having a hangover (unless you're the Patriots) - so anything is possible, but while Seattle could easily make the playoffs again, I like the Niners roster better right now. Either way I can't see the Rams not winning that division though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 On 4/2/2019 at 3:23 PM, Hunter2_1 said: Yeah, but the Rams also outperformed their pythagorean wins expectation by 1.8, meaning they're due a for a decent regression to the mean. Looks like DEN, NYG and GB are sleepers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYJets4716 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 On 4/2/2019 at 11:33 AM, jetjuice said: JETS No one will have them anywhere, but that has been when they surprise. Its all on Darnold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tetsujin Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Bills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackywabbit Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 (edited) On 4/2/2019 at 12:26 AM, footbull3196 said: Pittsburgh. People expect them to finish 3rd in the division but I'm expecting an 11-5 rebound season with the distractions behind them What people? I guarantee you pretty much any group you poll would have the Browns and Steelers as the top in some order. They also are the favorites in Vegas with the O/U for both teams at 9 wins. Despite winning the division, the Ravens are not a favorite over the Steelers this year. The Bengals over under is only 6 games. So are definitely my pick to exceed that total from the division. I see all those teams as pretty close, TBH. The Browns have the most blue chip talent, but I need to see them win more. The Bengals have the personnell be the same team that sneaks into the playoffs a couple years back IF the key pieces stay healthy and the new coach brings a new energy. My other pick is the Broncos (O/U) 7 games. Their defense is strong. The have a good running game. Flacco will bring a baseline of competence to the passing game. Add in an elite home field advantage and I see them being a potential playoff team. Edited April 4, 2019 by wackywabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 3 hours ago, wackywabbit said: What people? I guarantee you pretty much any group you poll would have the Browns and Steelers as the top in some order. They also are the favorites in Vegas with the O/U for both teams at 9 wins. Despite winning the division, the Ravens are not a favorite over the Steelers this year. The Bengals over under is only 6 games. So are definitely my pick to exceed that total from the division. I see all those teams as pretty close, TBH. The Browns have the most blue chip talent, but I need to see them win more. The Bengals have the personnell be the same team that sneaks into the playoffs a couple years back IF the key pieces stay healthy and the new coach brings a new energy. My other pick is the Broncos (O/U) 7 games. Their defense is strong. The have a good running game. Flacco will bring a baseline of competence to the passing game. Add in an elite home field advantage and I see them being a potential playoff team. No team in our division will be straight up garbage. I can't see any of these teams winning less than 5 games. Cleveland/Baltimore/Pittsburgh will all win around 9-10 games where Cincinnati will probably win between 7-8. I do think Pittsburgh is going to have a really rough year as soon as Roethlisberger falls apart, which will be sooner or later. This could be the season it happens, but we'll have to wait and see. I think a surprise team could be the Falcons. They'll be Super Bowl contenders again this year once they add some more pieces in the draft and get all of their injured defensive players back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uk9erfan Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 N4L made a very good point about waiting until after the draft, but my pre-draft sleeper pick would be the Atlanta Falcons. This team has a lot of talent on offense and a very good QB in Ryan. Now if they can get their defense playing well they could sneak in to the playoffs. Not sure why their defense was so poor last year - scheme, talent level, coaching??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 9 hours ago, uk9erfan said: N4L made a very good point about waiting until after the draft, but my pre-draft sleeper pick would be the Atlanta Falcons. This team has a lot of talent on offense and a very good QB in Ryan. Now if they can get their defense playing well they could sneak in to the playoffs. Not sure why their defense was so poor last year - scheme, talent level, coaching??? injury. lost the top 3 leaders on defense at FS, SS and MLB in ascheme designed to maximize those 3 spots. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinSting Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 On 4/2/2019 at 6:13 PM, Riftty said: Packers. I see them winning the division and making a deep playoff run. I still think Rodgers is the best QB on the league. His heart just wasn't into it last season. I was thinking that too, as the dischord between star QB and coach has been quite the chasm for awhile. Something had to change, and it sure wasn't going to be the star QB... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epyon Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 On 4/2/2019 at 10:28 AM, Fl0nkerton said: Hot Take coming off a 12-4 season. It kind of is a hot take though.... The Bears lost their Defensive coordinator, when the defense had to carry the living hell out of the team last year. Mitch remains a question mark.... Our offensive skill position grouping is largely overrated, and our best young WR dislocated his shoulder at least 5-6 times last year.... Our offensive line didn't look stellar last year, our workhorse running back is now in Philly, we have no kicker, and we are very limited on draft picks to fill roster holes. The team is entering it's "window" to try and make a run for a couple years before the salary cap bombs start going off, but it depends on a team that vastly exceeded expectations last year, and one that has a ton of uncertainty /room for skepticism going into this year somehow improving beyond that and taking the next step with very limited ammunition within which to accomplish that. The biggest factors favoring Chicago right now are that Green Bay is looking more and more like a dumpster fire squandering arguably the best QB of all time behind unchecked egos/mismanagement, and that Minnesota's defense is regressing and their offense depends on a guy who can't win a big game, while Detroit continues to be a decent team that can beat anyone, but never really puts it together. The rest of the division taking steps back might help Chicago get an easier path to the playoffs (note I said "easier", not "easy", as NFC:N doesn't really have any "easy wins" in it), but they still need to take a step forward if they actually plan on doing any winning in said playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NudeTayne Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 On 4/2/2019 at 8:45 AM, BleedTheClock said: Pittsburgh will never be terrible. I don't see them winning 11 games, but they aren't going to fall off the face of the earth. Big Ben will, methinks though. I think this is the year he becomes poopy. The same kind of poopy that people flushed in the bathroom he sexually assaulted a girl in. Your strong efforts in this thread have been brought to the attention of we at the Chiavertinis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uk9erfan Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 15 hours ago, scar988 said: injury. lost the top 3 leaders on defense at FS, SS and MLB in ascheme designed to maximize those 3 spots. I had completely forgotten that, and if I remember rightly it was very early in the season. So with that in mind they are definitely my sleeper, and I 'll be rooting for them to win the NFC South, provided they lose to my Niners of course :). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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