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Consensus Mock Draft - Post Combine - Pick 12 - Green Bay Packers


goldfishwars

WHO WILL THE PACKERS SELECT WITH THE 12TH PICK IN THE NFL DRAFT   

63 members have voted

  1. 1. -FIRST CHOICE-

    • Andre Dillard [ OT ] Washington State
    • Brian Burns [ EDGE ] Florida State
    • Byron Murphy [ CB ] Washington
      0
    • Chris Lindstrom [ OG ] Boston College
      0
    • Christian Wilkins [ DT ] Clemson
    • Clelin Ferrell [ EDGE ] Clemson
    • Cody Ford [ OT ] Oklahoma
      0
    • D.K. Metcalf [ WR ] Mississippi
    • Dalton Risner [ OT ] Kansas State
      0
    • Dexter Lawrence [ DT ] Clemson
    • Garrett Bradbury [ OC ] NC State
      0
    • Greedy Williams [ CB ] LSU
      0
    • Hakeem Butler [ WR ] Iowa State
      0
    • Jerry Tillery [ DT ] Notre Dame
      0
    • Jonah Williams [ OT ] Alabama
    • Josh Jacobs [ RB ] Alabama
    • Noah Fant [ TE ] Iowa
      0
    • Rashan Gary [ DL ] Michigan
      0
    • TJ Hockenson [ TE ] Iowa
    • Other (Please State)
      0
  2. 2. -SECOND CHOICE-

    • Andre Dillard [ OT ] Washington State
    • Brian Burns [ EDGE ] Florida State
    • Byron Murphy [ CB ] Washington
      0
    • Chris Lindstrom [ OG ] Boston College
    • Christian Wilkins [ DT ] Clemson
    • Clelin Ferrell [ EDGE ] Clemson
    • Cody Ford [ OT ] Oklahoma
      0
    • D.K. Metcalf [ WR ] Mississippi
    • Dalton Risner [ OT ] Kansas State
      0
    • Dexter Lawrence [ DT ] Clemson
      0
    • Garrett Bradbury [ OC ] NC State
    • Greedy Williams [ CB ] LSU
      0
    • Hakeem Butler [ WR ] Iowa State
    • Jerry Tillery [ DT ] Notre Dame
    • Jonah Williams [ OT ] Alabama
    • Josh Jacobs [ RB ] Alabama
      0
    • Noah Fant [ TE ] Iowa
    • Rashan Gary [ DL ] Michigan
    • TJ Hockenson [ TE ] Iowa
    • Other (Please State)
      0
  3. 3. -THIRD CHOICE-

    • Andre Dillard [ OT ] Washington State
    • Brian Burns [ EDGE ] Florida State
    • Byron Murphy [ CB ] Washington
    • Chris Lindstrom [ OG ] Boston College
    • Christian Wilkins [ DT ] Clemson
    • Clelin Ferrell [ EDGE ] Clemson
    • Cody Ford [ OT ] Oklahoma
    • D.K. Metcalf [ WR ] Mississippi
    • Dalton Risner [ OT ] Kansas State
    • Dexter Lawrence [ DT ] Clemson
    • Garrett Bradbury [ OC ] NC State
      0
    • Greedy Williams [ CB ] LSU
    • Hakeem Butler [ WR ] Iowa State
    • Jerry Tillery [ DT ] Notre Dame
    • Jonah Williams [ OT ] Alabama
    • Josh Jacobs [ RB ] Alabama
    • Noah Fant [ TE ] Iowa
      0
    • Rashan Gary [ DL ] Michigan
    • TJ Hockenson [ TE ] Iowa
    • Other (Please State)
      0


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Going to adopt the "1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice" method. Meaning your first choice is worth 3 points, 2nd is worth 2, and 3rd is worth 1. Please do not select the same player multiple times in one selection. If you do, only the highest value will be taken for that and the lower duplicate votes will be discounted.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB - Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, EDGE - Ohio State
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
4. Oakland Raiders: Josh Allen, EDGE - Kentucky
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB - LSU
6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB - Ohio State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT - Florida
8. Detroit Lions: Montez Sweat, EDGE - Mississippi State
9. Buffalo Blls - Ed Oliver, DT - Houston
10. Denver Broncos - Drew Lock, QB - Missouri
11. Cincinnati Bengals - Devin Bush, Michigan
12. Green Bay Packers

More options will be added in later picks. If after 20+ votes the selection is clearly one person as the favorite we will move on to the next pick. Otherwise It will be ~24 hours before the poll closes. If there are 2/3 options that are close, there will be a runoff. This is who you think they WILL pick, not who they SHOULD pick.

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2 hours ago, Ragnarok said:

Hock is the easy choice.  They wont go Burns at 12 after signing two edge rushers.

They've only taken two non-premium positions in the first round since Ted Thompson took over.  AJ Hawk in 2005 and HHCD in 2014.  That to me smells like a very real pattern.  I think the board would have to have Hock as the clear BVA in order for them to consider him at 12.

And the signing of Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith likely don't prevent the Packers from taking an EDGE.  They're both essentially signed to 2 year deals, so they're going to be back in the market for a pass rusher in a year or two anyways.  If the value presents itself, they'd be foolish to pass on one simply because they signed 2 this offseason.

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I think you have to go with Brian Burns [EDGE; Florida State] here.  He'll start off as a situational pass rusher as he continues to develop his game, and add more healthy weight to his frame.  They could opt to go with Clelin Ferrell [EDGE; Clemson] here instead, but he's built in the same mold as our current starting EDGE, so you figure he'd want to add a different body type.  If you want a real dark horse, go with Andre Dillard [OT; Washington State].  He fits the athletic mold that the Packers have put a premium on, and he can develop behind David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga this year before taking over at RT next year.

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Green Bay puts a pretty big premium on positional value with their high picks.  Since the end of the Sherman era, there have been two times the Packers have drafted a player who was not a quarterback, pass rusher, offensive tackle, defensive tackle, or cornerback in the first round: In 2006 when A.J. Hawk was the 2nd to last guy in that "elite tier" (ahead of Vernon Davis, a tight end) and in 2014 when HHCD was arguably the last guy in that 1st round tier.

So Green Bay's not taking a tight end with guys like Burns and Gary on the board, unless you see Hockensen in a whole different value tier as those guys.  We might see them come along and make a luxury pick of a WR or something at 30, but 12 is going to be a DL, OL, or Edge.

So: Burns- Gary- Tillery

Edited by PossibleCabbage
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1 minute ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Green Bay puts a pretty big premium on positional value with their high picks.  Since the end of the Sherman era, there have been two times the Packers have drafted a player who was not a quarterback, pass rusher, offensive tackle, defensive tackle, or cornerback in the first round: In 2006 when A.J. Hawk was the 2nd to last guy in that "elite tier" (ahead of Vernon Davis, a tight end) and in 2014 when HHCD was arguably the last guy in that 1st round tier.

So Green Bay's not taking a tight end with guys like Burns and Gary on the board, unless you see Hockensen in a whole different value tier as those guys.  We might see them come along and make a luxury pick of a WR or something at 30, but 12 is going to be a DL, OL, or Edge.

So: Burns- Gary- Tillery

For me, 30 is more interesting.  I think that's the one pick where I think that they're going to feel less pressure sticking to that rule.

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12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

For me, 30 is more interesting.  I think that's the one pick where I think that they're going to feel less pressure sticking to that rule.

Other thing I think bears mentioning, if for some reason you were to trade down from 12 I think that lets you take any player you want regardless of position since you're transforming the pick into a player and another pick.  When they took Jordy Nelson that was a WR with their top pick, but after a trade back (which meant the pick was in the 2nd round.)  With the board stacked like this you'd have to think they would consider moving back to like 15 and still being pretty happy.

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1 minute ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Other thing I think bears mentioning, if for some reason you were to trade down from 12 I think that lets you take any player you want regardless of position since you're transforming the pick into a player and another pick.  When they took Jordy Nelson that was a WR with their top pick, but after a trade back (which meant the pick was in the 2nd round.)  With the board stacked like this you'd have to think they would consider moving back to like 15 and still being pretty happy.

The problem (and I think this applies to like 95% of the teams) I see is that the package the Packers would want to move down for, and what the team moving up for rarely matches.  Just according to the value chart, the cost to move up from say the Redskins pick would be something along the lines of 96 and 153.  The Packers are taking a little bit of a hit there, but is that enough for the Packers to risk that they guy they would have taken at 12?   The board doesn't have to dictate a clear leader, but there's likely a preference at 12.  If you're moving back from 12, it would indicate they don't have a preference let alone a clear BVA.

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