Daniel's Bad Mock That's Mostly An Excuse for Positional Rankings Thread

[Daniel 587]

I've got a one round mock, but I expect it to be bad.  I always tell myself I'm gonna make a chart of all team needs before free agency and then keep up with the moves they make, but yet again, I didn't follow through.  I use my own positional rankings and big board when determining who goes in front of who (except for the first overall pick), so there may be some odd looking picks, so keep in mind probably only half of the weird picks are straight up dumb.

Rather than post new topics, I'll probably update the mock later to try and get a better one.  Feedback is welcomed.

So first, the mock:

01. Cards: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma: I'm believing the hype.

02. 49ers: Nick Bosa, OLB, Ohio St: I value history of production over one year flash in the pan, and his position is more valuable, so Bosa goes first.

03. Jets: Quinnen Williams, DL, Bama: Arguably the best player in the class, but only one year of production.

04. Raiders: Montez Sweat, Edge, Mississippi St: I love Sweat, and have him just a hair under Bosa.  Higher ceiling, lower floor, still a great prospect.

05. Bucs: Devin White, LB, LSU: The only elite linebacker in the class is an easy pick here.

06. Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio St: It's funny to me that there's so much Haskins hate for one year of production, but we accept Murray first overall no question.  Haskins is the best QB in the class.

07. Jags: Josh Allen, Edge, Kentucky: I like Allen as a prospect, but I don't love him.  Still, he's better than the top OT by a little, so he's the pick.

08. Lions: Ed Oliver, DL, Houston: It's tempting to put Hockenson here, but Oliver's beastly athleticism probably gives him an edge.

09. Bills: Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan: I have Wilkins higher, but Gary is close behind, and he can fill two needs for the Bills, playing edge and interior in different packages.

10. Broncos: Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson: The hype with the Broncos and Lock might be true, but I think Lock is a big reach top 10.

11. Bengals: Andre Dillard, OT, Kansas St: The Bengals will also look at Hockenson, but OTs are way more valuable, so they go with the top tackle instead.

12. Packers: TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa: The Packers get the best offensive weapon in this year's draft, and Lafleur likes using lots of tight ends.

13. Dolphins: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida: Taylor would probably be the top tackle if he weren't injured, so the Dolphins get a pretty good deal here.

14. Falcons: Clelin Ferrell, Edge, Clemson: The Falcons are in a bind here, as there are a lot of better players available, but no fits.  I'm not doing trades though, so they take Ferrell.

15. Skins: Garrett Bradberry, OL, NC State: Bradberry is the fourth player on my BB, but his positional value is very low, so he probably falls in the mid teens.  Skins are happy to take him.

16: Panthers: Jonah Williams, OL, Bama: The Panthers need interior help, and Williams will be a great interior player.  He may be able to play tackle in a pinch too.

17. Giants: AJ Brown, Ole Miss: Brown nearly went a couple of picks ago, but here, the Giants jump at the chance to give their new QB a reliable weapon.

18. Vikings: Cody Ford, OL, Oklahoma: Ford will be a stud interior player, but he's not the highest IOL left.  However, he may be able to play tackle, so his value is much higher, since the Vikings need both.

19. Titans: Jeffery Simmons, DL, Mississippi St: This is not an ideal situation for the Titans, since Simmons won't play for a bit, but they'd have to reach, trade down, or pick a non-fit otherwise, so Simmons is the pick.

20. Steelers: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple: The Steelers need a corner, and at this point, Ya-Sin is one of the top players available.

21. Seahawks: Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina: The Seahawks need a weapon, and Samuel is the top one available here.

22. Ravens: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona St: Harry isn't far behind Samuel on my BB, and the Ravens are desperate for receiving help.

23. Texans: Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia: The Texans want a tackle, but there aren't any here that aren't major reaches.  Lindstrom is a possibility as well, but guards in the first are few and far between if they can't play tackle.

24. Raiders: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington: The Raiders need a good bit of help on defense, and getting a better backfield will take some pressure off of the front seven.

25. Eagles: Johnathan Abrams, S, Mississippi St: The Eagles need a little trench help, but Abrams is better than any of those available players.

26. Colts: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson: Lawrence is a slight reach here, but the Colts are pretty set on offense.  A big nose tackle would let them focus the edge on getting to the QB.

27. Raiders: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri: I expect in reality, Lock will go earlier than this, but he's too inconsistent to be worth it IMO.  Here, after they've taken two defensive players, the Raiders feel safe picking him up.

28. Chargers: Chris Lindstrom, OL, Boston College: Lindstrom has been the best player on the board for some time, but now he makes sense to take, as the other fits are just too big a reach in comparison.  Marquise Brown is a possibility though.

29. Chiefs: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan: Yeah, lots of people have him higher, but he is waaaay too small.  He could overcome that, I know other linebackers have in the past, but it's too big a red flag for me to mock him any higher.  This late in the first, the risk is mitigated.

30. Packers: Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss: It's again tempting to put Marquise Brown here, but since they already spent a high pick on a weapon, it's hard to see that happening again.  Tackle help is needed, and Little is risky, but better than the available safeties and linebackers.

31. Rams: Brian Burns, Edge, Florida St: The Rams have a pretty stacked front seven, so taking a player likely to be just a situational pass rusher makes some sense for them.

32. Pats: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma: He's injured, but he's too good to not take here.

 

Positional Rankings:

I don't do a top 10 or top 5 or whatever, usually.  I rank until the dropoff becomes too tough to account for.  There will be more players in the deeper positions and fewer players in the shallower ones.

QB: Here, there are some big gaps.  I like Murray, but he has a lot to overcome.  Lock looks great at times (he torched the Vols and looked stellar under pressure, but looked like trash in other games).  Jones is a high end backup IMO.

1. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio St

2. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma

3. Drew Lock, Missouri

4. Daniel Jones, Duke

5. Will Grier, West Virginia

OT: The tackle class is top heavy, with Dillard and Taylor looking like great prospects, and some middling guys after that.  Little looked great, but his combine was awful.  McGary looks just OK to me. After that, it's guards and small school guys who I only know from Combine drills and highlights.

1. Andre Dillard, Washington St

2. Jawaan Taylor, Florida

3. Greg Little, Ole Miss

4. Jonah Williams, Bama*

5. Kaleb McGary, Washington

6. Cody Ford, Oklahoma*

OL: The interior OLine class is absolutely stacked if, like me, you assume Williams and Ford are grabbed for their interior skills, though their swing ability makes them more valuable than some ahead of them.  Bradberry is the top guy, but there are so many studs here that you can probably get plug and play guards in the late third round.  Between 2 and 5, the line separating prospects is very thin.

1. Garret Bradberry, NC State

2. Jonah Williams, Bama

3. Chris Lindstrom, Boston College

4. Erik McCoy, TAMU

5. Cody Ford, Oklahoma

6. Elgton Jenkins, Mississippi St

7. Connor McGovern, Penn St

8. Michael Deiter, Wisconsin

TE: The tight end class is extremely top heavy, and there's a big dropoff after each of the top four prospects.  I like Irv Smith way less than most, but he's a decent mid round prospect.  Hockenson is a blue chipper, Fant is a crazy athlete with potential, and Sternberger is a good TE2 for a team. Oliver has upside, Wilson has great production and is fast.

1. TJ Hockenson, Iowa

2. Noah Fant, Iowa

3. Jace Sternberger, TAMU

4. Irv Smith, Bama

4. Josh Oliver, SJSU

4. Caleb Wilson, UCLA

WR: My receiver rankings are probably the most different from what I see elsewhere, though those seem to lack a consensus too.  Brown is a solid first rounder.  Samuel and Harry are great players, but aren't No. 1 kind of guys. Campbell has a year of good production, and looked great at the combine.  Marquise Brown would probably be a spot or two higher if he was healthy.  Very little separation in 2 and 3, 4 and 6, and none between Ridley and Hall.  Very deep class.

1. AJ Brown, Ole Miss

2. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina

3. N'Keal Harry, Arizona St

4. Parris Campbell, Ohio St

5. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma

6. Hakeem Butler, Iowa St

7. Emmanuel Hall, Missouri

7. Riley Ridley, Georgia

9. Gary Jennings, WVU

RB: These are the rankings I feel the least confident about (which says a lot, these are probably mostly bad).  The running back class this season is garbage.  Jacobs barely edges out the next two, but he did look great in limited time.  Henderson was a monster at Memphis and has fantastic speed.  Sanders has one year of production, but was stuck behind Barkley.  Harris is solid, but I'm not impressed behind that line.  Hill I like, but he's undersized to be an every down back, Singletary is way overrated, and Montgomery is slow, but has stellar production behind him (Ditto for Snell).  Anderson and Love could be steals, but injuries keep them from the top.

1. Josh Jacobs, Bama

2. Darrell Henderson, Memphis

3. Miles Sanders, Penn St

4. David Montgomery, Iowa St

5. Damien Harris, Bama

6. Justice Hill, Oklahoma St

7. Benny Snell, Kentucky

8. Devin Singletary, FAU

DL: This is the premier class of the draft.  Lots of talent at the top, depth, variety, it's got it all.  Williams is first, obviously.  Oliver is my second because of the athleticism, but the difference between him and Wilkins is razor thin.  Gary I have here, lots of upside, problems with injuries though and mediocre production.  Simmons would be one spot higher if healthy.  Lawrence is a space eater with great athleticism, Allen would be a very good 3-4 end, but that's his only fit IMO.  Dremont Jones has great tape, bad combine, Tillery is the opposite, with mediocre tape and a great combine.  Wise has been a great interior player for two years, and Willis was a beast this year, but his injury knocks him down a couple spots.

1. Quinnen Williams, Bama

2. Ed Oliver, Houston

3. Christin Wilkins, Clemson

4. Rashan Gary, Michigan

5. Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi St

6. Dexter Lawrence, Clemson

7. Zach Allen, Boston College

8. DreMont Jones, Ohio St

9. Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame

10. Daniel Wise, Kansas

11. Gerald Willis, Miami

Edge: The other really stellar class this season.  Bosa is a clear number 1 with his bloodlines, technique, and production.  Sweat isn't far behind though, after he was great for Miss St, had a great Senior Bowl, and blew the combine away.  Josh Allen has never jumped off the tape for me, and I think he's more one dimensional than many give him credit for.  Ferrell compares to Derrick Morgan, he'll be solid, unspectacular, and consistent.  Burns I worry will bust, but could be a solid situational pass rusher.  Ferguson has stellar production at a low level, but a bad pro day knocks him below the others.  Banogu is like Burns, a situational rusher.  Polite was my fifth before the post-season, where he seems to have gotten fat and unmotivated; still salvagable maybe.  Winovich is an effort player, likely to be an OLB3.  Jackson is a solid player, only a 4-3 end though.  Jelks is weird.  I feel he'd be better adding weight and playing a 4-3 DE or even a 3-4 DE if he could add enough.

1. Nick Bosa, Ohio St

2. Montez Sweat, Mississippi St

3. Josh Allen, Kentucky

4. Clelin Ferrell, Clemson

5. Brian Burns, Florida St

6. Jaylon Ferguson, Louisiana Tech

7. Ben Banogu, TCU

8. Jachai Polite, Florida

9. Chase Winovich, Michigan

10. Joe Jackson, Miami

11. Jaylen Jelks, Oregon

LB: Oh boy.  This class.  White is a blue chip, Bush is undersized, and then there's another sizable dropoff for Pratt, Lamar, and Wilson.  After that, depth bodies only.  Pratt I think is the sleeper pick here.

1. Devin White, LSU

2. Devin Bush, Michigan

3. Germaine Pratt, NC State

4. Tre Lamar, Clemson

5. Mack Wilson, Alabama

CB: This is a bad class at the top, but there's a ton of depth here.  Ya-Sin is the top guy, as he was able to go toe to toe with Samuel at the Senior Bowl and looked good in the drills in the combine.  Byron Murphy is the other guy I see as a starter.  Iman Marshall is tall and I loved his 2017 tape; not great this year, but long corners are in demand and there's potential there. Baker is a CB3 in a zone scheme only, though he looks to have a high floor and outstanding ball skills.  Greedy Williams has all the potential in the world and the highest ceiling in the class, but looks like a bust to me.  Joejuan Williams I liked on tape, but he was sloppy in the combine drills and slower than expected; better at his pro day.  Amani had great measurables at the combine and some good production too.  Layne is one of those guys that I have trouble finding faults with and is good and long, but doesn't jump out much.

1. Rock Ya-Sin, Temple

2. Byron Murphy, Washington

3. Iman Marshall, USC

4. Deandre Baker, Georgia

5. Greedy Williams, LSU

6. Joejuan Williams, Vandy

7. Amani Oruwariye, Penn St

8. Justin Layne, Michigan St

S: The safety class is three tiered to me.  There's the top two, the next four, and then another big dropoff.  The top two, Thornhill and Abrams, I have as first rounders.  Thornhill is fast, strong, has great hands, and fantastic size.  Abrams hits hard, and is a box safety at the next level, but a great one.  After that, the next tier is close together. Savage is my next one, and he's great, but limited to a free safety role only, not big enough to support the run much, but who cares? Gardner-Johnson has tremendous talent and can play all over as a safety, but he needs refinement and better read and react ability.  Rapp's speed was shockingly low, but it may be an aberration; still a concern. Thompson looks more like a quality depth guy than a regular starter to me, and has durability issues.  After that, there's another dropoff to Lonnie Johnson, who is the best of the rest, but a midrounder.

1. Juan Thornhill, Virginia

2. Johnathan Abrams, Mississippi St

3. Darnell Savage, Maryland

4. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida

5. Taylor Rapp, Washington

6. Deionte Thompson, Bama

7. Lonnie Johnson, Kentucky

[CHOMP_CHOMP 52]

You really hate D.K. Metcalf huh? 

No Kahale Warring / 6’5” 252lbs / San Diego State and no Dawson Knox / 6’4” 249lbs / Mississippi in your rankings either huh?

[Daniel 587]

16 minutes ago, CHOMP_CHOMP said:

You really hate D.K. Metcalf huh? 

No Kahale Warring / 6’5” 252lbs / San Diego State and no Dawson Knox / 6’4” 249lbs / Mississippi in your rankings either huh?

I really do.  Straight line speed only, injury history, and poor movement.  He is not a good prospect in my mind.  Draftable, but I wouldn't touch him til day 3.

Don't know many of the small school guys, which is why I left guys like Tytus Howard and Nasir Adderley out.  As for Knox, I've seen a lot of hype about him lately, and saw he blew up his pro day measurables, but I haven't studied any tape on him.

EDIT: Oh snap, dude is from Brentwood.  Top TE in the class now for sure.

Kidding, but I have meant to homework on him.  More eager to do it now.  I'll look up the Warring guy as well.  Thanks for the suggestions.

Edited April 5 by Daniel

[BowserBroncos 203]

1 hour ago, Daniel said:

10. Broncos: Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson

Not a bad player - far from that. But I would prefer T.J. Hockenson, Jonah Williams or Devin Bush if Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver and Devin White are gone and we can't trade down

[The Gnat 699]

Seems like a good Vikings pick to me.

[BengalsBite 1]

I like the position for us personally but I highly doubt the bengals actually go OT since we just gave hart a ridiculous contract 

[bigdog2372 28]

I would find it hard to believe that Josh Allen isn’t the pick if he’s there. He fits Bowles’ D perfectly and is a potentially elite player at a position of need.

[Daniel 587]

1 hour ago, BowserBroncos said:

Not a bad player - far from that. But I would prefer T.J. Hockenson, Jonah Williams or Devin Bush if Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver and Devin White are gone and we can't trade down

Makes sense, the distinction there is mostly to do with my BB. Wilkins is my 8th player, and Williams and Bush are way lower.  Hockenson is 6th, but I have trouble mocking a TE that high.  After all, everyone had OJ Howard ranked near the top of the boards and he fell really far.  I think teams just don't value tight ends like that that much.

12 minutes ago, bigdog2372 said:

I would find it hard to believe that Josh Allen isn’t the pick if he’s there. He fits Bowles’ D perfectly and is a potentially elite player at a position of need.

Yeah, the reason I went White is twofold.  White is higher on my BB than Allen (5 and 9 respectively), and there are other pass rushers in the class, but White is the only great LB in the class.  I was under the impression that both were big positions of need.  Is edge more needed?

[oldman9er 1,684]

Anything can be picked at with criticisms, but on the whole, it's a respectable look through. Love Bosa for SF, of course, too. 

[Daniel 587]

1 minute ago, oldman9er said:

Anything can be picked at with criticisms, but on the whole, it's a respectable look through. Love Bosa for SF, of course, too. 

Thanks.  I put Bosa over Williams because my understanding is that they need an Edge rusher more than an interior player, and I value production history over recent production, which is why I have Bosa as the top available prospect over Williams.  It's close though, Williams was a beast this season, and has had a great postseason too.  They could go either way and I wouldn't be shocked.

[m haynes 92]

I can't believe there is no room on your list for

Dalton Risner [ OT ] Kansas State
Charles Omenihu [ DL ] Texas

 

[ttitansfan4life 1,551]

Love Simmons but unless we add someone like Suh, McCoy, or Wilkerson via trade or FA I can’t see it. The Titans can’t afford to let their 1st round pick sit pretty much the whole season. Lindstrom would be a good pick.

[bigdog2372 28]

5 hours ago, Daniel said:

 

Yeah, the reason I went White is twofold.  White is higher on my BB than Allen (5 and 9 respectively), and there are other pass rushers in the class, but White is the only great LB in the class.  I was under the impression that both were big positions of need.  Is edge more needed?

I don’t know that edge is MORE needed per se. I would say that most BBs I have seen have Allen above White. I think they can both be elite players in the league. The reason I would take Allen is that edge is just so much harder to find than a good LB. you can find a really good ILB in rounds 2 or 3 while it’s really difficult to find elite rushers later let alone early.  LB is just a less valued position than edge in 2019. So, I guess Allen vs White is subjective, but as a Bucs fan I prefer Allen but would be happy with either.

[taylor made 189]

Don't see Bradberry mocked to the Skins often. I like it

[babyatemydingo 65]

I sort of like your exclusion of Metcalf.
I don't think he's all that.