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Bust Test


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Half of all first rounders will bust.

Here are 32 potential first rounders.
Delete 16 who will bust.

Note:  I left out the questionable QB selections who may be made due to need.  Yeah, we got that.
Also, I don't care about some guy you think should have been included.
Go!

Kyler Murray
Dwayne Haskins
Josh Jacobs
DK Metcalf
NKeal Harry
AJ Brown
Marquise Brown
Andre Dillard
Jonah Williams
Jawaan Taylor
Cody Ford
Chris Lindstrom
Garrett Bradbury
Nick Bosa
Clelin Ferrell
Rashan Gary
Montez Sweat
Quinnen Williams       
Ed Oliver       
Jeffery Simmons       
Christian Wilkins   
Dexter Lawrence   
Devin White
Devin Bush
Josh Allen
Brian Burns
Greedy Williams
Byron Murphy
Deandre Baker
Deionte Thompson
Taylor Rapp
Johnathan Abram

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1 minute ago, Danger said:

I'm very aware you're sarcastic. I'm just pointing out that you're misinterpreting WHY  most people say he's not a good pick.

I don't think I'm misinterpreting anything - people DONT want him but nobody can give an actual legit reason (positional value is not a legit reason) WHY they don't want him. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Scalamania said:

I don't think I'm misinterpreting anything - people DONT want him but nobody can give an actual legit reason (positional value is not a legit reason) WHY they don't want him. 

 

Positional value absolutely is a legit reason. You don't see people taking kickers early in the draft (normally). But there's more to it than that. This team under Doug has never used a bellcow RB and we have Jordan Howard to take on the bulk of the carries. RB isn't a hugely impactful position these days. Barkley was an elite talent and was capable of far more than Jacobs. If somehow someone like him fell to our pick then yes I'm all for it. But RB is one of the biggest gaps between the blue chip players and the rest. After those blue chip players the gap between late 1st round graded players and even 4th rounders is relatively small. In short. Taking a RB later on 1. There isn't much of a dip in talent 2. Allows us to get players of more importance 3. Makes more sense for the way this team operates.

I'd be ok with taking Jacobs at 25 IF we didn't have Jordan Howard, and we tended to rely primarily on 1 RB in this system.

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1 minute ago, Danger said:

Let me put it this way. Jacobs at 25 wouldn't be a bad pick, but rather a wasted pick.

I don't think it would be a wasted pick at all. On a team without many holes we need to be taking the BPA, and in most situations (unless Ferrell, Wilkins or Burns drops) it's going to be Jacobs. If you draft Josh Jacobs and he comes in and has a Sony Michel like impact year 1 (which would be my projection for him) that's absolutely worth the pick. 

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1 minute ago, Scalamania said:

I don't think it would be a wasted pick at all. On a team without many holes we need to be taking the BPA, and in most situations (unless Ferrell, Wilkins or Burns drops) it's going to be Jacobs. If you draft Josh Jacobs and he comes in and has a Sony Michel like impact year 1 (which would be my projection for him) that's absolutely worth the pick. 

The team has many holes that will arrive in the coming seasons. 

But right now. A list of holes we should be looking to address immediately or for next season. LB, S, OT.

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Just now, Scalamania said:

Here's something I found to be interesting - last year 5/8 teams in the divisional playoffs, 3/4 teams in the championship playoffs and 2/2 teams in the Super Bowl both have a 1st round running-back as their primary back. 

 

It's correlation, not causation. It's because they didn't have other holes. So taking a runningback in the first isn't WHY they made the playoffs. They would have the playoffs with or without the runningback.

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1 minute ago, Danger said:

It's correlation, not causation. It's because they didn't have other holes. So taking a runningback in the first isn't WHY they made the playoffs. They would have the playoffs with or without the runningback.

This team doesn't have many holes - LB is not an immediate need and the OT class is terrible. Safety certainly is a need but I'm not sure there's a top tier one in this draft.

I guess we'll see what this team does come draft day.

....also just realized this isn't the prospect thread and we totally derailed the meaning of the OP, my bad @babyatemydingo

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4 hours ago, Scalamania said:

Here's something I found to be interesting - last year 5/8 teams in the divisional playoffs, 3/4 teams in the championship playoffs and 2/2 teams in the Super Bowl both have a 1st round running-back as their primary back. 

 

here's a fun fact we won a superbowl in the past 2 years without one.

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