Breshad Perriman: Was he better in his 10 games for Cleveland than his 3 seasons in Baltimore?

[Danand]

Matt Judon had 7 sacks. 3 of them came in 1 game. Remove that one game which is the statistical outlier, and his overall sack per game decline rapidly. This is not a straw man argument. It is an attempt to explain, what I tried to explain with Perriman and his games. He had 3-4 games depending on what you want to discuss (number of catches or yards per catch) that was equal to or sightly better than what he did with the Ravens. Is that really enough to say he was a more confident and better receiver because Baker Mayfield inspired such great confidence?

I recognized I remembered wrong about the Perriman extension btw.

 

Edit: I can try with another example. Should we review Lamar Jacksons entire game against the Chargers, or should we just pick out the 4th quarter? That is what I think you do when showing how great Perriman was with the Browns. Showing how good he was compared to with the Ravens based on those 4 games.

I know, apples and oranges, but I try hard to explain how I see it.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Perriman looked like a more confident receiver with the Browns, though. He was using his hands a lot more, and just looked more comfortable. That's all from the eye test specifically and without looking at the statistical component. Sometimes a change of scenery and a fresh start does wonders for someone, and perhaps that will work with Perriman and perhaps not. Time will tell.

[AngusMcFife]

3 hours ago, Danand said:

Indeed. I just find it difficult to understand how they can disagree with the fact, that Perriman showed the same playmaking ability and the same inconsistency with the Browns as he did with the Ravens, unless we of course choose specifically which games we base the argument on.

Had Perriman played in every game like he did against us in week 17 last year, he would still be a raven. We saw him capable of playing like that, but we also saw the drops and the inconsistency as well. That had nothing to do with scheme or who threw the ball, but simply because of his drops.

Well Perriman had 0 drops with the Browns in 2018. That doesn't seem like an inconsistent player. 

Please describe how Perriman was inconsistent with the Browns. Keep in mind he was signed in mid-October. If you want to keep on repeating the same point, it would help if you presented some evidence.    

[Danand]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

Well Perriman had 0 drops with the Browns in 2018. That doesn't seem like an inconsistent player. 

Please describe how Perriman was inconsistent with the Browns. Keep in mind he was signed in mid-October. If you want to keep on repeating the same point, it would help if you presented some evidence.    

I mentioned several times that drops was the difference. 

Don't know what evidence you want. We established he was an efficient low volume player, who had a few games which really improved his yards per catch. Sry I can't make it more clear to you.

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, Danand said:

Matt Judon had 7 sacks. 3 of them came in 1 game. Remove that one game which is the statistical outlier, and his overall sack per game decline rapidly. This is not a straw man argument. It is an attempt to explain, what I tried to explain with Perriman and his games. He had 3-4 games depending on what you want to discuss (number of catches or yards per catch) that was equal to or sightly better than what he did with the Ravens. Is that really enough to say he was a more confident and better receiver because Baker Mayfield inspired such great confidence?

I recognized I remembered wrong about the Perriman extension btw.

 

Edit: I can try with another example. Should we review Lamar Jacksons entire game against the Chargers, or should we just pick out the 4th quarter? That is what I think you do when showing how great Perriman was with the Browns. Showing how good he was compared to with the Ravens based on those 4 games.

I know, apples and oranges, but I try hard to explain how I see it.

1. A poster says that Perriman played better with the Browns. You disagree and say that if you remove 2 games he looks much worse and compares to how he looked with the Ravens.

2. I present evidence that this take is absolutely wrong by displaying way more efficiency while REMOVING the outlier performances.

3. You go back to making the same argument without touching on said post. Then try and switch the players while under a completely different circumstance to build up a straw man.

4. I don’t fall into said trap because I realize that the Perriman case to the Judon case is literally comparing apples to oranges. 

The only way it would be somewhat apples to apples would be if we were referencing Judon’s pass rushing efficiency when playing with Suggs vs his pass rushing efficiency while playing with Tyus Bowser... and we see that his pass rushing efficiency was much higher with Bowser and lower with Suggs even after removing all statistical outliers from the equation. We then conclude that Judon is a “better” performer when playing with Bowser than when playing with Suggs. Then we would have a situation similar to the one presented with Perriman.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Danand said:

I mentioned several times that drops was the difference. 

Don't know what evidence you want. We established he was an efficient low volume player, who had a few games which really improved his yards per catch. Sry I can't make it more clear to you.

12 hours ago, Danand said:

Perriman played in 10 games and had two games really stand out. We can agree that he had a statistically better season with the Browns. He had 3 games with a very high yards per catch (5 catches for a combined 188 yards, more than half he had all season) and then he had 3 catches against the Ravens including a nice TD and sideline grab. Perriman still did not shot anything we hadn't seen. He also made long catches, and contested catches with the Ravens. He just didn't do it consistently, which he also didn't do with the browns. You took at stab at Flacco being the issue, while I argue that it has nothing to do with who threw him the ball.

I don't rig the stats, I just point out what lies behind your -8.7 and +36.6 DVOA stats. Whenever you do that, I doubt you watch games and relies on what PFF and similar sites tells you are good players.

Your post from just this page shows differently. You said he didn’t make big plays consistently with the Browns. His catch percentage would show otherwise.

His yards per target would show otherwise. His touchdowns per game would show otherwise. Take away the outlier performances and he still performs much more consistently than he did with us while the yards per game numbers were largely unaffected.

[DreamKid]

Perrimman should have been better with the Browns. He was the farthest along in his development at that point. He was fighting for a chance to legit stay in the NFL. His role was less prioritized/much simpler. A clean slate with a new team. Kitchens is a superior talent to the OCs he had in his time with us. Baker being the polarizing sun type figure he is, took pressure off Perriman who clearly functions better as a "cog" rather than "the guy".

It all adds up for me.

The Browns' offense opened up some much easier looks for Perriman than he had in his time with us. You can see in his highlights, how frequently he was wide open on his targets. That combined with some flashes of the talent we saw from Breshad in Baltimore, netted him the decent rebound season he needed. And he certainly stepped up against us, in what was the biggest game of his life.

Perriman is the ultimate tease. His first play for us was a massive 50/50 catch over the top of Stephen Gilmore......, and some of his last plays for us were drops and misplays on balls from LJ8 & RG3 in the preseason. Ultimately he was too frustrating a player for us too see reason to keep him. Certainly a disappointing result for a former 1st Round Pick. 

As long as he doesn't get injured, which usually triggers a massive regression in him. And he doesn't have too much pressure on him("Cog"/Contributor vs "The Guy"/Large Expectations). He should be able to make it as an NFL journeyman. Talented OCs like Kitchens can extract a little more from him too. 

No ill will towards him. If anything Breshad has helped sharpen my evaluation of WR prospects and how I look at their mental game. 

[Danand]

53 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Your post from just this page shows differently. You said he didn’t make big plays consistently with the Browns. His catch percentage would show otherwise.

His yards per target would show otherwise. His touchdowns per game would show otherwise. Take away the outlier performances and he still performs much more consistently than he did with us while the yards per game numbers were largely unaffected.

You took the bolded statement and made it into something else than I argued. Several of those games he didn't have the production/yards per catch he had in other games. But I guess those games doesn't count because he had just been signed.

This is his stats page from 2018: http://www.nfl.com/player/breshadperriman/2552597/gamelogs

 

this is his stats page from 2016: http://www.nfl.com/player/breshadperriman/2552597/gamelogs?season=2016

If you can't see a pattern, I don't know what to say. His average with the Browns was 3 yards higher per game than with the Ravens. His last 4 games where much better than his first 5.

[diamondbull424]

48 minutes ago, Danand said:

You took the bolded statement and made it into something else than I argued. Several of those games he didn't have the production/yards per catch he had in other games. But I guess those games doesn't count because he had just been signed.

This is his stats page from 2018: http://www.nfl.com/player/breshadperriman/2552597/gamelogs

 

this is his stats page from 2016: http://www.nfl.com/player/breshadperriman/2552597/gamelogs?season=2016

If you can't see a pattern, I don't know what to say. His average with the Browns was 3 yards higher per game than with the Ravens. His last 4 games where much better than his first 5.

@drd23

I can’t quote this and move it to the other thread. (You don’t miss the mod powers until they’re gone 😆)

Not sure if you read my entire post but I explained that I removed the two best games and the two worst games from each season so as to make a fair comparison of their medium output.

So I didn’t “just remove them because he had just signed”. I explained that in my post. Perhaps you just decided to gloss over that part when you glossed over most of the post? I mean I even included the stat logs directly in my post, yet somehow stat logs from NFL.com are suddenly going to be different? 😂

And of course I’m not going to play by your rules of “let’s remove only their good games and see how they hold up.” Deep threat WRs always have similar stat representations to Breshad Perriman. Look at DeSean Jackson and Tyreek Hill. Look at their game logs and you’ll see similar breakdowns where a majority of their yards come from outliers in 1/3 of the games. With Perriman he played in 10 games and had 3 games where he really tore it up. That’s similar distribution to most deep threats. Because they’re mainly high volume yard producers with less targets. I’m not sure why you would expect Perriman, a deep threat, to be any different.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

Perrimman should have been better with the Browns. He was the farthest along in his development at that point. He was fighting for a chance to legit stay in the NFL. His role was less prioritized/much simpler. A clean slate with a new team. Kitchens is a superior talent to the OCs he had in his time with us. Baker being the polarizing sun type figure he is, took pressure off Perriman who clearly functions better as a "cog" rather than "the guy".

It all adds up for me.

The Browns' offense opened up some much easier looks for Perriman than he had in his time with us. You can see in his highlights, how frequently he was wide open on his targets. That combined with some flashes of the talent we saw from Breshad in Baltimore, netted him the decent rebound season he needed. And he certainly stepped up against us, in what was the biggest game of his life.

Perriman is the ultimate tease. His first play for us was a massive 50/50 catch over the top of Stephen Gilmore......, and some of his last plays for us were drops and misplays on balls from LJ8 & RG3 in the preseason. Ultimately he was too frustrating a player for us too see reason to keep him. Certainly a disappointing result for a former 1st Round Pick. 

As long as he doesn't get injured, which usually triggers a massive regression in him. And he doesn't have too much pressure on him("Cog"/Contributor vs "The Guy"/Large Expectations). He should be able to make it as an NFL journeyman. Talented OCs like Kitchens can extract a little more from him too. 

No ill will towards him. If anything Breshad has helped sharpen my evaluation of WR prospects and how I look at their mental game. 

I agree he definitely SHOULD be better than he was in 2016 just by nature of aging and developing. And I agree that he’s a bust for us, for sure.

My only contest is that he wasn’t better this season with the Browns than he was with us in 2016. It’s ignorant (Ill informed) to make such a statement when by every measure he was.

But yes, he’s a disappointment for sure. Three-Four years into his pro career and he should be a 1000 yds type deep threat with his athletic profile, someone AT LEAST at a Torrey Smith level (with us) vs the guy who was 40% catch rate or 65% catch rate but still low overall volume.

Hopefully he’ll do well for the Bucs. Playing back in Florida should also help to rejuvenate him, like the scenery the Browns provided.

[DreamKid]

3 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

My only contest is that he wasn’t better this season with the Browns than he was with us in 2016. It’s ignorant (Ill informed) to make such a statement when by every measure he was.

Oh, is this what you guys are arguing about?

Pretty straight forward stuff. He was further developed and better utilized in 2018 etc etc, which led to an increase in efficiency. In that sense he was absolutely a better player for the Browns in 2018, than for us in 2016. Not seeing the hang up .

[paraven]

Its ok to call a spade a spade, perriman sucks, and will be out of the league in 2 years MAX. Chris Moore is an outstanding special teamer who is a #3 wr at best. He will stick around for his special teams play but not for his receiving skills.. 

[Danand]

6 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

@drd23

I can’t quote this and move it to the other thread. (You don’t miss the mod powers until they’re gone 😆)

Not sure if you read my entire post but I explained that I removed the two best games and the two worst games from each season so as to make a fair comparison of their medium output.

So I didn’t “just remove them because he had just signed”. I explained that in my post. Perhaps you just decided to gloss over that part when you glossed over most of the post? I mean I even included the stat logs directly in my post, yet somehow stat logs from NFL.com are suddenly going to be different? 😂

And of course I’m not going to play by your rules of “let’s remove only their good games and see how they hold up.” Deep threat WRs always have similar stat representations to Breshad Perriman. Look at DeSean Jackson and Tyreek Hill. Look at their game logs and you’ll see similar breakdowns where a majority of their yards come from outliers in 1/3 of the games. With Perriman he played in 10 games and had 3 games where he really tore it up. That’s similar distribution to most deep threats. Because they’re mainly high volume yard producers with less targets. I’m not sure why you would expect Perriman, a deep threat, to be any different.

I don't just gloss over your posts, but there is a lot of text and I don't want to spend so much time having to relate to every single argument or snarky remark you make. I also believe there was an issue with the links, as both sent me to the same page, so I couldn't really gauge what your point was.

I can't remember who I quoted, but the "he had just signed" argument came from the other guy. I assume it was because he wanted to explain why Perrimans impact with the Browns were lesser in his first games than in the last - but that is just my guess.

The bolded part is apparently where we disagree completely as to how much emphasis we should put in those games. The original statement was something along the lines, that Perriman was better with the Browns because he had better chemistry (or something like that) with Baker Mayfield. I argued that Perriman didn't show anything with the Browns and Mayfield, that he didn't show with the Ravens - because I don't think we should put as much value into a few games/few plays, as some of you guys do.

From what I saw and heard from browns fans, he was a nice complimentary piece, who didn't suffer from the drops that led to his Ravens departure. But to say he did so much better with the Browns, I don't see it. He was a legit deep threat - for some games. He was the same with the Ravens. We can then talk about how he was utilized wrong, but that could for example explain why his average with the Ravens was lower.

[Danand]

6 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Oh, is this what you guys are arguing about?

Pretty straight forward stuff. He was further developed and better utilized in 2018 etc etc, which led to an increase in efficiency. In that sense he was absolutely a better player for the Browns in 2018, than for us in 2016. Not seeing the hang up .

It just seem like I have to acknowledge how incredible Perriman was with the Browns compared to when he was with the Ravens, and I have a hard time accepting that, as I mostly see him having done well in a very limited amount of games.

[DreamKid]

2 minutes ago, Danand said:

It just seem like I have to acknowledge how incredible Perriman was with the Browns compared to when he was with the Ravens, and I have a hard time accepting that, as I mostly see him having done well in a very limited amount of games.

I don't think you have to do that. They can think he was better with the Browns, and you can appraise him of a consistent value throughout his career. The topic isn't that controversial. You guys seem to be arguing the argument at this point.