Draft Scenario Discussion

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

Armstead resets back to rookie scale though even if he is comparable to Howard.  So its a net gain.  

I think it is a push more than a net gain. Yes the cap and years are better, but you still had to invest your 2nd highest pick for the year. IMO of course. It is a 4th and not a 2nd. 

 

I'm not a fan of his though, I hope there is someone, RB or not, that is better in the 4th to take. 

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, Sugashane said:

I think it is a push more than a net gain. Yes the cap and years are better, but you still had to invest your 2nd highest pick for the year. IMO of course. It is a 4th and not a 2nd. 

 

I'm not a fan of his though, I hope there is someone, RB or not, that is better in the 4th to take. 

Armstead in 3rd would be a giant reach IMO.

[Sugashane]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Armstead in 3rd would be a giant reach IMO.

Agreed. I've been open about my feelings in this draft class of RBs, there are only a few I have rated in the 3rd or better. They will go higher than I think they should most likely but I just am not enamored by this class. A lot of talented role players and pieces for a RBC, but as far as true starters? It is a thin class for that IMO. 

 

I have him as a 5th round talent. 

[soulman]

10 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Agreed. I've been open about my feelings in this draft class of RBs, there are only a few I have rated in the 3rd or better. They will go higher than I think they should most likely but I just am not enamored by this class. A lot of talented role players and pieces for a RBC, but as far as true starters? It is a thin class for that IMO. 

 

I have him as a 5th round talent. 

Agreed but then a supplemental back for a RBBC scheme is what we need so we're shopping in the right place and the shelves are stocked.  Now all we have to do is find the right one for us and I'm thinking Pace and Nagy have that narrowed down fairly well.

This is actually a pretty good draft for us to be without a 1st and 2nd round pick because we can find RBs and TEs in the middle rounds to add depth and challenge for offensive snaps who actually rate as potential starters once they gain some experience.

[Sugashane]

10 hours ago, soulman said:

Agreed but then a supplemental back for a RBBC scheme is what we need so we're shopping in the right place and the shelves are stocked.  Now all we have to do is find the right one for us and I'm thinking Pace and Nagy have that narrowed down fairly well.

This is actually a pretty good draft for us to be without a 1st and 2nd round pick because we can find RBs and TEs in the middle rounds to add depth and challenge for offensive snaps who actually rate as potential starters once they gain some experience.

Yep, that's why I am all for taking a RB, there are several guys who may be poor starters, but can be stellar in certain situations/roles. I have no issues with that, though I fully admit I am far more comfortable with a true lead back and having role-specific player behind him.

 

While it is always a talking point to infer what Nagy may do due to what he had seen/learned under Reid, he may or may not follow the same approach. We have seen that he has not gone out of his way to get speed when available, but rather went for size/mismatch ability in the WR/TE corps. If going for a RBC though it would also fall away from Reid's style, as he had clear lead backs each year in KC, be it Charles, Charles/West (Charles injured), Ware, or Hunt. Each year he had a lead back that was getting many more attempts. Even in 2013 the only reason Charles didn't double Davis's rush totals was him being out a game and Davis getting nearly 30 rushes. To put into perspective, there was only 1 other game he had 10 rushes and there were 9 games he had 2 or less carries.

 

Even if we get a RB this year, I am not ruling out the chance of getting a higher graded one in 2020 unless Davis really exceeds expectations.

[dll2000]

Hunt is a free agent next year.  Although Cleveland can match any offer I think.

 

 

[soulman]

11 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Even if we get a RB this year, I am not ruling out the chance of getting a higher graded one in 2020 unless Davis really exceeds expectations.

This is something I've brought up before.  This draft seems to lack any truly top tier backs if we consider that even Jacobs is a late 1st early 2nd round pick and others who rank higher and who follow him tend to be ranked as late 2nd and 3rd round picks.

We can more easily maneuver for a better back next year if needed.  Davis may surprise us and if we can pair him with a back who compliments what he does and whose also a 3 down back we may be good even in 2020. It's a gamble we need to take.

[AZBearsFan]

7 minutes ago, soulman said:

This is something I've brought up before.  This draft seems to lack any truly top tier backs if we consider that even Jacobs is a late 1st early 2nd round pick and others who rank higher and who follow him tend to be ranked as late 2nd and 3rd round picks.

We can more easily maneuver for a better back next year if needed.  Davis may surprise us and if we can pair him with a back who compliments what he does and whose also a 3 down back we may be good even in 2020. It's a gamble we need to take.

Working from last year’s numbers they need to replace 270 carries that left with Howard, Mizzell and Cunningham. If Davis is looking at just 10 rushes a game on average (COMPLETELY within the scope of reality outside of a major injury especially given how they chose to target him right at the outset in FA) then we are looking for a guy in the draft to get maybe about as many rush attempts as Cohen got last year, and if Davis is looking at a dozen runs per week then we’re talking about only about 75 carries unaccounted for (all assuming Cohen’s rushing load remains a constant). I don’t think Nagy NEEDS a stud RB. I think what he NEEDS is a RB with a skill set that doesn’t restrict his play calling creativity. A guy who may not be elite at anything but is solid of better at everything. Guys like that can be found later than round 3.

Everyone just assumes that the Bears need a bell cow RB and that a rookie draft pick RB is going to be expected to be that guy in 2019 when reality is that neither of those things may be or need to be true. I’d be at least somewhat surprised if after the draft we don’t add another FA RB capable of handling up to 5 carries per week should they be called upon (unless we draft 2 guys, which is also possible especially if we add picks in a trade down). Those guys are a dime a dozen in FA, especially after many of them will come to find themselves suddenly on the market after their roster spot replacements are drafted. 

I think there is serious potential for people to be looking back on this draft a few years from now and question the crazy amounts of time we’ve spent trying to figure out which RB we can get will be the next great one. RB remains the most plug and play position on offense in the NFL. I think we need to take a RB at some point in the draft but to me that guy being a traits guy like Davis is probably good enough for what we want to do, and we’d be better served spending our top picks on harder-to-fill positions than on a RB. 

[soulman]

43 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think Nagy NEEDS a stud RB. I think what he NEEDS is a RB with a skill set that doesn’t restrict his play calling creativity. A guy who may not be elite at anything but is solid of better at everything. Guys like that can be found later than round 3

I tend to agree.  Unless a back we have graded significantly higher falls to us or within our grasp I expect Pace to have more than one capable 3 down back on his list to take anywhere from round 3 to round 5.  At that point it's all about fit and value and there may be several "right guys".

To be honest I'm just as concerned about the need to add another TE either via the draft or as a vet FA pickup afterward.  In fact I'd make these needs almost equal and much like RB there are a number of good mid round TE prospects we could also be looking at in round 3 through 5.

The secondary and the OL may have to take a back seat to the offense this year.  We aren't looking for starters either place so IMHO Pace would have to feel very strongly about a DB or an OL sitting there for the taking to rank him higher in priority than a RB or a TE.

In all likelihood we'll extend Whitehair some time this summer and that will cement the OL for now.  Next is probably Jackson and the cost there may dictate what we can do about a SS to replace HHCD if needed and possibly Amukamara as well.  But that's for 2020.

I think Brad Biggs also answered the question of trades quite well in his mailbag column and I've posted it here in it's entirety.

[dll2000]

In 2018 Bears had visits and met with Roquan Smith, James Daniels and Nall. 

They didnt meet with anyone else they drafted.  

Pace likes no tells. Just enough so that it isnt a pattern either way. 

I think you can figure that much of draft will be people Bears have shown no public interest in, but some of it will be. 

[AZBearsFan]

49 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

In 2018 Bears had visits and met with Roquan Smith, James Daniels and Nall. 

They didnt meet with anyone else they drafted.  

Pace likes no tells. Just enough so that it isnt a pattern either way. 

I think you can figure that much of draft will be people Bears have shown no public interest in, but some of it will be. 

Yeah, the fact that we have no idea what his plan is is refreshing to me, even if it’s frustrating to the draftnik in me. 

[soulman]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Yeah, the fact that we have no idea what his plan is is refreshing to me, even if it’s frustrating to the draftnik in me. 

LOL.....

[soulman]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

In 2018 Bears had visits and met with Roquan Smith, James Daniels and Nall. 

They didnt meet with anyone else they drafted.  

Pace likes no tells. Just enough so that it isnt a pattern either way. 

I think you can figure that much of draft will be people Bears have shown no public interest in, but some of it will be. 

I'd be thinking about now that one reason they've had at least some contact with 17 RBs is to throw others off the scent.

It's no real secret we need a RB to replace Howard to pair with Davis and Cohen but who and where we'll take him can't be any more obvious to 31 NFL GMs than it is to us.  I can see anywhere from 6-8 backs who are probably on our draft board and probably several more ranked as priority UDFA.

Also, we should overlook Nall as a guy Nagy may see some use for as an H-Back and another guy with decent power and vision who can catch.  If he can make himself into a valuable ST guy he may have a shot at making the roster.  He's not nifty at all but once he gets a head of steam up he's a load.

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, soulman said:

Also, we should overlook Nall as a guy Nagy may see some use for as an H-Back and another guy with decent power and vision who can catch.  If he can make himself into a valuable ST guy he may have a shot at making the roster.  He's not nifty at all but once he gets a head of steam up he's a load.

I’m curious if they maybe had him bulk up as a potential replacement for Burton. It’d probably be his best chance to make our 53. 

[WindyCity]

Best case scenario the Bears need a rookie RB to get 170 carries.

We know the best case scenario does not usually play out.

If Davis gets hurt or flops that rookie could be getting 250 ASAP.